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TravelinZag
01-02-2018, 06:38 PM
Zags are 12-3 with 16 games and the league tourney remaining. Assume the following:

First eight: 2 games vs Portland, 2 vs San Francisco, at Pepperdine, LMU, and Santa Clara, home for St Mary’s. Seven Ws and one loss, or 6-2.

Final eight: 2 games vs San Diego and 2 vs BYU, at Pacific and St Mary’s, home for LMU and Pepperdine. Six wins, 2 losses.

Tourney: one or two wins, one loss. No season or tourney championship

Twenty-six or -seven wins, seven or eight losses?

Dance, or no? If no, any record sufficient without either championship? What are minimum requirements to continue streak?

Before you all slam me, remember (as said at the top), worst hypothetical.

IMHO, Zags make the NCAAs one way or another!! Just assessing where they stand. Should be an interesting discussion. Have at it.

Go Zags! Second weekend or beyond!

bartruff1
01-02-2018, 06:48 PM
their in

Hoopaholic
01-02-2018, 06:54 PM
In so long as they don’t lose to any team other than SM or BYU and get splits with those two teams in regular season

Once and Future Zag
01-02-2018, 08:10 PM
For reference (KenPom)

GU 9
SMC 25
BYU 65
USD 114
USF 139
The rest of the WCC 200+

Current losses
Florida 29
Villanova 1
SD State 57

TravelinZag
01-02-2018, 08:58 PM
In so long as they don’t lose to any team other than SM or BYU and get splits with those two teams in regular season

In that event, Zags tie for regular season title. WCC tourney a joke. However, your response to my query is, in effect, Zags must at least share regular season title for a dance ticket, would have six losses at most, and make the dance.

Thanks for your response.

Hoopaholic
01-02-2018, 10:55 PM
In that event, Zags tie for regular season title. WCC tourney a joke. However, your response to my query is, in effect, Zags must at least share regular season title for a dance ticket, would have six losses at most, and make the dance.

Thanks for your response.
Possibly but if we split with both and SMC beats byu at their place we would be second place regular season

Outraged
01-03-2018, 03:25 AM
Please put down the Kool-Aide. We are entitled to nothing. I think with our current rpi we are on the outside looking in. This is our lowest rpi starting conference that I remember. We need to not loose more than two more games. We probably need to win the tournament.

Martin Centre Mad Man
01-03-2018, 03:53 AM
Our RPI is 70. Our RPI strength of schedule is 180. Teams don’t get at-large bids with those numbers. Our margin for error is very thin.

https://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/rpi/GONZAG/gonzaga-bulldogs

gonzagafan62
01-03-2018, 06:06 AM
Our RPI is 70. Our RPI strength of schedule is 180. Teams don’t get at-large bids with those numbers. Our margin for error is very thin.

https://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/rpi/GONZAG/gonzaga-bulldogs

You do know Looking at RPI before February is often quite silly right? Right now we are a 5 seed and at least in by everyone. We are gunna be fine so are the numbers

509er
01-03-2018, 07:36 AM
3 losses in conference including a loss to someone other than smc or byu and not winning tournament would make it interesting depending on what the rest of the field does. For example what if they lose to byu but byu loses to LMU and Santa Clara? Also depends on the cannibalism in the Power 5 conferences.

Root for tOSU , Texas, Creighton and (unfortunately) the u of w.

77Zag
01-03-2018, 08:16 AM
Gonzaga Basketball
Predictions Update
Dec 31, 2017

• After beating Santa Clara 101-52 yesterday, Gonzaga is now projected to finish the regular season 26-5 (16-2 WCC).

• The odds that the Bulldogs make the NCAA tournament are currently 99%.

• We currently rank Gonzaga as the #6 team in the country, and the #1 team in the WCC.
• Next game: Thu, Jan 4 at #300 Pepperdine. Our power ratings give the Bulldogs a 99% chance to win.

Bracketology Projections
Make NCAA Tournament Get Automatic NCAA Bid Projected Seed
(if Selected)
99% 62% 5
• Gonzaga will almost certainly make the NCAA tournament, even if they don't win the WCC tournament.
• We project the Bulldogs with a 47% chance to make the Sweet Sixteen and a 13% chance to reach the Final Four.
• Gonzaga has a 3% chance to win the NCAA Tournament. That may not sound like much, but few teams even have this good of a chance.
More Gonzaga Bracketology | Bracketology For All Teams
Regular Season Record Projection
Current Record Projection For Remaining Games Projected
Final Record
12-3
(2-0 WCC) 14-2
(14-2 WCC) 26-5
(16-2 WCC)
• The more precise final record expectation for Gonzaga is 26.4 wins and 4.6 losses, slightly better than the rounded projection above.
• Based on our projections, the Bulldogs will most likely finish the regular season with a record between 27-4 and 25-6.
• Gonzaga has a 18% chance to win all 16 of their remaining scheduled games.
More Gonzaga Projections | Projections For All WCC Teams
WCC Tournament Projections
Get WCC #1 Seed Projected Seed Win WCC Tournament
68% 1 62%
• The odds for Gonzaga to earn the #1 seed in the WCC tournament are down 2% since yesterday.
• The chance of Gonzaga winning the WCC tournament has increased by 3% since yesterday.
Full WCC Tournament Projections
Remaining Games & Win Odds

Jan 4

@ #300 Pepperdine
98.6%
Preview


Jan 6

@ #233 Loyola Mymt
96.2%
Preview


Jan 11

vs. #290 Portland
99.5%
Preview



Jan 13

@ #146 San Fransco
88.6%
Preview


Jan 18

vs. #29 St Marys
79.3%
Preview


Jan 20

@ #277 Santa Clara
97.8%
Preview



Jan 25

@ #290 Portland
98.2%
Preview


Jan 27

vs. #146 San Fransco
97.5%
Preview


Feb 1

vs. #126 San Diego
97.0%
Preview



Feb 3

vs. #69 BYU
91.6%
Preview


Feb 8

@ #203 Pacific
94.6%
Preview


Feb 10

@ #29 St Marys
52.3%
Preview



Feb 15

vs. #233 Loyola Mymt
99.5%
Preview


Feb 17

vs. #300 Pepperdine
99.5%
Preview


Feb 22

@ #126 San Diego
86.8%
Preview



Feb 24

@ #69 BYU
73.2%
Preview



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DixieZag
01-03-2018, 08:42 AM
3 losses in conference including a loss to someone other than smc or byu and not winning tournament would make it interesting depending on what the rest of the field does. For example what if they lose to byu but byu loses to LMU and Santa Clara? Also depends on the cannibalism in the Power 5 conferences.

Root for tOSU , Texas, Creighton and (unfortunately) the u of w.

It's just as important to root for Nova, FLA and SDSU, to make the losses more reasonable. Nova in MSG is forgivable. Florida looked okay at the time, but needs to perform, and SDSU might not look as bad given true road game. Important to make losses less bad.

I had no idea our RPI had dropped to that. I thought that KenPom still had us reasonably high. It is silly to look at RPI when we're still ranked. SMC mightve been ranked when left out, can't remember, but their wins meant nothing and the home loss to Texas Arilington, not a bad team, but was used to knock them out.

We are in a much different situation.

Losing a single home game would look pretty bad, SMC not quite so bad. Anyone else including BYU (again)? Not good. Win one of two at BYU or SMC and looks pretty good, assuming no other home loss.

This team needs a 2018 version of McClellan to load it up on its back as he did in latter part of the year (okay, end of the year). Candidates? Any of the guards, Norvelle, Melson, JP, and likely only JWIII as only candidate in front court. Tillie just doesn't show up every night, JWIII might if he takes up the cause.

I think we'll make the tournament. Our OOC record/schedule is not as bad as we might think, a FT away from FLA, NOVA, and true road at SDSU? Some decent wins over Creighton, Texas, don't know about Ohio State. We will get nothing for any of the truly god-awful fodder we played.

I feel pretty strongly that we'll win the conference tourney anyway.

bartruff1
01-03-2018, 09:42 AM
Well....03 has already booked his flight and bought tickets for Boise....coincidence ??? I think not...

I don't see any point in following the teams that Gonzaga has already played....

All Gonzaga has to do is win...winning solves all the imaginary problems...

I have the impression that the Selection Committee is using more advanced metrics than RPI...

Zags have advanced just as far as a 10 seed as a 2 seed.....the Tournament is all about who is hot and who is not...and some luck.

mattydog73
01-03-2018, 09:52 AM
Just going to leave this here. ;)

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/ncaa-tournament-committee-to-emphasize-road-results-in-new-bracket-process/

WallaWallaZag
01-03-2018, 09:56 AM
I have the impression that the Selection Committee is using more advanced metrics than RPI...

they have incorporated other metrics but still revert to the rpi when it suits their agenda, wink wink...

bartruff1
01-03-2018, 10:28 AM
It is true that I have forgotten everything I ever knew about statistics ...but if you win, there will always be a strong correlation to whatever data you use.....the old..... lies..... damn lies....... and statistics ...that are usually more precise than accurate..

Zags11
01-03-2018, 11:09 AM
Thread 1 starred!

Stay consistent GU Board.

webspinnre
01-03-2018, 12:03 PM
I think if we lose a maximum of 3 games the rest of the way, and they're only to SMC or BYU in the regular season or conf tourney, we're probably fine. Any more losses than that, to anyone other than those two, and I think it starts getting dicier. 4 losses might be okay, if it's USD or USF. Losing to a 200+ RPI team as well as having other losses would be really bad

Mr Vulture
01-03-2018, 02:17 PM
Please put down the Kool-Aide. We are entitled to nothing. I think with our current rpi we are on the outside looking in. This is our lowest rpi starting conference that I remember. We need to not loose more than two more games. We probably need to win the tournament.

The most reflective stat is the KenPom rating in which Gonzaga is 9th in the Nation.

kitzbuel
01-04-2018, 10:01 AM
Zags can actually go 16-19 and still make the tournament. :D

Sent from my XT1710-02 using Tapatalk

OntZags
01-04-2018, 11:00 AM
they have incorporated other metrics but still revert to the rpi when it suits their agenda, wink wink...

The thing about 'agendas' is that it will probably now benefit Gonzaga. Gonzaga has fully arrived as a national brand.

I suspect that when selection time comes around, and the committee gets a little selective with regards to their interpretations of resumes, Gonzaga will be more likely to be a beneficiary than to be left out.

amaronizag
01-04-2018, 01:04 PM
The season is still young. There are still a dozen teams with only one loss so far this season. Lots of losses to come, and as others have pointed out, GU will always continue to rise in the rankings during conference play as our record improves while teams in other conferences rack up losses and fall in the polls. GU will dance.

mgadfly
01-05-2018, 12:06 PM
The thing about 'agendas' is that it will probably now benefit Gonzaga. Gonzaga has fully arrived as a national brand.

I suspect that when selection time comes around, and the committee gets a little selective with regards to their interpretations of resumes, Gonzaga will be more likely to be a beneficiary than to be left out.

I really don't think that is true. I'm not sure who all is on this year's committee, but the decision to put a major conference team in over the Zags may be the difference of several million dollars going to the major conference schools (how much is an NCAA share worth these days?). If the Agenda was driven by ESPN or ROOT, I'm sure Gonzaga's agenda would be pushed. But I don't think the tens of millions (or is it hundreds of millions now) of dollars that have been given to power conferences at the expense of smaller conferences by a committee dominated by power conference interests has been a mistake. And I'm not sure there are a bunch of smaller conference representatives rooting for the Zags to take one of the few spots the P6 teams leave for mid-majors.

mgadfly
01-05-2018, 12:10 PM
The most reflective stat is the KenPom rating in which Gonzaga is 9th in the Nation.


I think it is the most reflective of how good a team actually is, but it is one of 6 metrics used by the Committee. When you have 6 numbers to choose from, that gives you plenty of options to find one consistent with whatever agenda you have. How many teams, not named Syracuse, have made the field as an at-large bid with an RPI of 70+? And I'm talking EVER.

My worry is that our RPI may actually go up (get worse) if our OOC opponents don't keep winning and our resume begins adding WCC fodder to the mix.

Personally, I think the Zags win the WCC tourney and get in again, but that RPI needs to slide up to the mid-40s range or no matter how good the KP rating is, we could be left out.