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View Full Version : Honest question: who do we lose to the rest of the way out?



thespywhozaggedme
12-11-2017, 04:56 AM
Looking at our schedule and the talent disparity on our roster compared to the roster of the rest of our opponents who beats us between now and March madness? Thanks

NEC26
12-11-2017, 05:15 AM
Seems like BYU at our house every year. Possibly Saint Marys at their house.

RenoZag
12-11-2017, 05:18 AM
On paper, they shouldn't lose to anyone. On the court ? They could lose @ BYU in the WCC Regular Season finale on 2/24 and they might drop one at Moraga. Depends on the health of the squad. Sickness and injury could be bigger threats than the schedule.

$0.02

thespywhozaggedme
12-11-2017, 05:30 AM
On paper, they shouldn't lose to anyone. On the court ? They could lose @ BYU in the WCC Regular Season finale on 2/24 and they might drop one at Moraga. Depends on the health of the squad. Sickness and injury could be bigger threats than the schedule.

$0.02

We're just so much more talented than either of those teams

jazzdelmar
12-11-2017, 05:32 AM
Shouldn't. SDSU may be tricky.

thespywhozaggedme
12-11-2017, 05:43 AM
Shouldn't. SDSU may be tricky.

They just lost to Cal. Yes Cal. Yesh

rennis
12-11-2017, 05:46 AM
BYU at home. Otherwise they should beat everyone remaining

MontanaCoyote
12-11-2017, 06:23 AM
Exactly right! RenoZag ! No way we "should" lose a game between now and then.

UW coach said Zag's "out teamed" us, which as we all know is a Yuge, especially given The Gaser At The Garden. If we out team our opponents we win (.!)

Markburn1
12-11-2017, 06:28 AM
The Zags have a chance to run the table. Nobody left on the schedule will be favored to beat them. The narrowest odds will be their road game in Moraga. But, their overall odds of winning out would be about 7.5-1. How can that be? Because when you look at potential twenty game win streaks, the odds of having an off night, injuries cropping up, etc. increase relative to the number of games being projected. Not to mention these are 18-22 year old kids. I wouldn't bet the mortgage on it.

kitzbuel
12-11-2017, 06:32 AM
We have three more teams on our schedule that in in kenpom top 100: SDSU, SMC, and BYU. At this point I am not circling a data against any of them as a loss. There is always the one game where we lay an egg, but I don't guess for those.

FlyZag
12-11-2017, 06:51 AM
San Diego state is a MUCH more difficult game that UW.

SDST = 62 kenpom
UW= 127

To add: SDST won't be a cross state rivalry and have a win over #2 Kansas a few days before to help get us "amped"

We **could** drop that game if we aren't careful. Road games are always difficult.

bartruff1
12-11-2017, 07:00 AM
Shouldn't. SDSU may be tricky.

They just pissed away a win, but as usual, they have athletes that can get on a roll......it is never over till it is over.

Any road game is difficult to win...

TexasZagFan
12-11-2017, 08:15 AM
They just pissed away a win, but as usual, they have athletes that can get on a roll......it is never over till it is over.

Any road game is difficult to win...

Ain't that the truth, bart. That's why our win in Nashville last year was so sweet to the TZF clan. The only other games I recall ending in a Zag victory that we attended was Ok State and Tulsa (10 years ago). Road trips we've made over the past five years included Houston (Duke), Wichita (K State), Memphis, and SMU. Also saw the Zags fall to Wyoming in Albuquerque some 15 years ago.

We plan on being in Omaha next year.

Zagger
12-11-2017, 08:30 AM
http://www.fowlplaces.com/zags/ZagKoolaidSmall.png

I say we win out :)
I think the Villanova loss and the response to it @ UW shows the Zags will show up for away games here on out. Home games ..... sure hope so too!

ZagsObserver
12-11-2017, 08:41 AM
Probabilities. They should lose. Let’s assume GU plays SMC 3 Times and BYU twice. Assuming a 10 percent chance of a BYU win and 20 percent chance of a SMC win for each, that gets you a 41 percent chance of winning those games. Add in a 98 percent chance for the other games and it’s even lower. Cumulative probabilities. More likely than not that we lose a game, even if we are at least a 5-1 favorite for each individual game.

CDC84
12-11-2017, 08:41 AM
It will be interesting to see how many fans show up for the SDSU road game. School isn't in session, but SDSU is a huge campus with a lot of local students. Viejas Arena, when it's rocking, is one of the toughest joints to play at in the nation. It's hard for me to tell how good they are his season. Better than last year hopefully.

Obviously, the SMC and BYU road games, along with the WCC semi (if against SMC or BYU) and the likely WCC final (against likely BYU or SMC) are my only big worries. I can't see GU losing to anyone else. That being said, GU really needs to get that SDSU win.

I could see GU entering the dance with 3 to 4 losses, but they must remain healthy the whole way through.

I am interested to see if SMC drops a game to anyone besides GU and the BYU road game during the regular season. With how poorly SMC defends, I could see some run of the mill WCC team really getting hot from three and challenging them.

Zags11
12-11-2017, 08:44 AM
Always a slip up gm. For almost every hoop team. Its just looked at differently then most teams since zags are in wcc.

webspinnre
12-11-2017, 09:16 AM
I suspect we drop at least one in conference.

Bogozags
12-11-2017, 09:26 AM
Away games at SMC and BYU will be tough but I think that USD is going to be a really tough game there as well as at USF. I would bet money that we finish undefeated at home - yes, even against BYU...that will change this year...BYU doesn't have a single player that could start for us...SMC has JL and he would be a very good addition and think he would start at GU...

We could finish with just two losses if the ball bounces our way...

23dpg
12-11-2017, 09:49 AM
Probabilities. They should lose. Let’s assume GU plays SMC 3 Times and BYU twice. Assuming a 10 percent chance of a BYU win and 20 percent chance of a SMC win for each, that gets you a 41 percent chance of winning those games. Add in a 98 percent chance for the other games and it’s even lower. Cumulative probabilities. More likely than not that we lose a game, even if we are at least a 5-1 favorite for each individual game.

This! This , this a hundred times this!

I honestly don’t understand why you ask the question. Yes, Gonzaga will probably favored in their remaining games. But statistically speaking, it will be very hard to win each one of them. We had this same conversation last year.

I love this team as much as anyone, but I never go off on them like some posters after a loss (or after a win for some). I understand that it’s impossible for any team in any sport to play their best every game. It’s part of the reason we watch.

soccerdud
12-11-2017, 10:31 AM
Probabilities. They should lose. Letís assume GU plays SMC 3 Times and BYU twice. Assuming a 10 percent chance of a BYU win and 20 percent chance of a SMC win for each, that gets you a 41 percent chance of winning those games. Add in a 98 percent chance for the other games and itís even lower. Cumulative probabilities. More likely than not that we lose a game, even if we are at least a 5-1 favorite for each individual game.

i have tried numerous times to explain this concept to spy. he seems unwilling or unable to grasp it. hope you have better luck.

Goshzagit
12-11-2017, 10:39 AM
Ever seen the SDSU student section? Maybe the most underrated in the Country.

They are good, on par with today's Kennel Club, imo. We have better student location/seating, but Aztec nation was raucous. Way better than expected. I attended a game at Viejas arena a couple years ago.

13,000 fans and it was LOUD. Students were active, engaged, creative, and was blown away by them.

My best friend attended Kansas for 2 of his 3 degrees, and is a die-hard Jay Hawk. While the overall crowd/environment was better at Allen Fieldhouse, I thought SDSU's student section was just as good, if not better.

It will be a tough atmosphere to play in, and SDSU has much better guards than UW.

We are, by far, their biggest game of the season. Viejas will be pumping and their team will be desperate.

Markburn1
12-11-2017, 10:49 AM
i have tried numerous times to explain this concept to spy. he seems unwilling or unable to grasp it. hope you have better luck.

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/gonzaga-bulldogs/projections

This page describes in detail what Observer is talking about. If Spy can't get his head around the concept with all of this information at his disposal, there is no hope.

webspinnre
12-11-2017, 10:53 AM
Probabilities. They should lose. Let’s assume GU plays SMC 3 Times and BYU twice. Assuming a 10 percent chance of a BYU win and 20 percent chance of a SMC win for each, that gets you a 41 percent chance of winning those games. Add in a 98 percent chance for the other games and it’s even lower. Cumulative probabilities. More likely than not that we lose a game, even if we are at least a 5-1 favorite for each individual game.

Absolutely. Math matters.

Kong-Kool-Aid
12-11-2017, 11:05 AM
If we win out, do we get a #1 seed?

Hoopaholic
12-11-2017, 11:13 AM
Absolutely. Math matters.

your right the only math that matters is the scoreboard math and as long as we have one number higher we win

not a big believer in the probablities theory when it comes to sports

rennis
12-11-2017, 11:16 AM
If we win out, do we get a #1 seed?

No.

thespywhozaggedme
12-11-2017, 11:17 AM
i have tried numerous times to explain this concept to spy. he seems unwilling or unable to grasp it. hope you have better luck.

And I have tried to explain to you several times that what we post is irrelevant and has no bearing on the game whatsoever. You seem to be under the impression that we matter a heck a lot more than we really do. Statistics be damned. The game is not played on paper, it is played on a court and from a talent perspective we are superior to everyone in our conference. And it is not even close

thespywhozaggedme
12-11-2017, 11:18 AM
No.

31-2? Uh yeah...we are getting a 1 seed.

thespywhozaggedme
12-11-2017, 11:19 AM
your right the only math that matters is the scoreboard math and as long as we have one number higher we win

not a big believer in the probablities theory when it comes to sports

I agree. It is absurd to try and quantify things when you cannot factor in the human element, i.e. heart, hustle and the like.

Markburn1
12-11-2017, 11:21 AM
If we win out, do we get a #1 seed?

Good question.

I would say doubtful.

Villanova and Michigan State seem to be inevitable at this point. Not quite sold on Duke because of their defense, but they are very talented.

That leaves Wichita State, Kentucky and North Carolina to jump along with two or three other teams with a shot.

All of those teams will have a better shot at enhancing their resume in conference, a luxury Gonzaga doesn't have. On the other hand, all of those teams will have a higher probability to end up with losses because of their conference strength.

I would say a 2 or a 3 seed would be cause for celebration for the Zags.

Markburn1
12-11-2017, 11:27 AM
And I have tried to explain to you several times that what we post is irrelevant and has no bearing on the game whatsoever. You seem to be under the impression that we matter a heck a lot more than we really do. Statistics be damned. The game is not played on paper, it is played on a court and from a talent perspective we are superior to everyone in our conference. And it is not even close

Duke has more talent than anybody. Certainly way more talent than Boston College. Not even close. Duke lost.

rennis
12-11-2017, 11:30 AM
31-2? Uh yeah...we are getting a 1 seed.

Nope. Not when there will be several teams with 6 or 7 top 25 wins each. GU has none, and will have none unless Texas or Creighton go on a tear. Most or all of GU's top 50 wins are going to be sub-25. Their best wins are over kenpom #26 and #32, and will have 2 or 3 wins against #33 if they win out. But that #33 is likely to drop as that team plays out its ridiculously weak SOS...

Our resume is good but getting pounded by Nova and losing to Florida is going to hold us back. We have no marquee wins. That's just fact. I would not hold my breath for a 1 seed. Whatever happens the rest of the way a 2 seed would be miraculous in my mind.

gonzagafan62
12-11-2017, 11:32 AM
We will lose one of the following (maybe 2)

@SDSU, @USF, BYU, @BYU, @SMC, SMC

I really don't think you follow much college basketball if you think we are winning out. As was last year we lost on senior night to BYU .... this season we've already seen MASSIVE upsets with the likes of Kansas losing to Washington, Duke losing to Boston College, Loyola Chicago taking down Florida.... on and on

Paper rosters are obviously better but to go out and win the rest of your games is kind of crazy at this point. College basketball is an art, not a science ... we will lose another game or two. Not because we aren't the better team, but because college basketball is just madness.

I will say one more thing before I close... it's going to take a weird and extremely fluky performance to lose a game the rest of the year... and the odd with 25 more games (roughly left to go) we will probably lose at least one that gives us a reality check. That reality check is that we need to bring our A game every night or we are susceptible to losing.

Zaglaw
12-11-2017, 12:00 PM
This year, I think its more likely we could lose @USD rather than @USF.

willandi
12-11-2017, 12:04 PM
If we win out, do we get a #1 seed?

What do the teams above us do?

gonzagafan62
12-11-2017, 12:20 PM
This year, I think its more likely we could lose @USD rather than @USF.

Them too... tough to win at slim Jim

zag944
12-11-2017, 12:31 PM
December, January, and February are often about figuring out exactly what we have going on with newer players and/or players a bit deeper in the bench. Also ever so slightly lightening the workload on the best players a bit. I think our staff is really good at self scouting but to some degree there is no substitute for game speed. How comfortable can we get having Wade spell Perkins now and then? How does Larsen hold up to 20mpg instead of 12? Just how versatile can Norvell and Kispert be?

Still think we should be pretty well favored in most these games regardless, but maybe going through some of these learning experiences drops the win likelihood a couple percentage points here and there? Always an interesting time in the journey to March.

MDABE80
12-11-2017, 12:32 PM
We won't lose another OOC game.
In league, there's always one team that surprises. Could be SMC, USF or San Diego who's been doing well in their OOC. BYU at their place is always tough. This team doesn't appear to have the focus ( especially on defense) as with last years team.
Anyway those are the 3 teams that can steal one or two from us. 3-4 loss season prior to the Dance.

Goshzagit
12-11-2017, 12:36 PM
SDSU has USF's Devin Watson now. We have faced him several times.

In (4) previous games vs Gonzaga, Watson scored:

-- 33 pts
-- 11 pts
-- 11 pts
-- 17 pts

SDSU also has Trey Kell, Malik Pope, Nolan Norain, and Kameron Rooks who were all recruited by the Zags at one point or another.

A former WCC star, and (4) former Zag recruits makes for an intriguing match-up.

SDSU fan base is solid, they have an active message board (aztec mesa), and still believe they are neck and neck with Gonzaga for West Coast Supremacy, not to mention their shared rivalry with BYU.

We are the only ranked team SDSU will play the rest of the season, although Boise St could sneak into Top-25 soon.

This game is circled for them. It can bring relevance and meaning back to a disappointing start. I believe SDSU was ranked in some polls to start the season.

Should be a major test, as they have some talent on that team. A couple interesting transfers, proven Seniors, even some former 4 & 5* guys.

thespywhozaggedme
12-11-2017, 12:36 PM
Duke has more talent than anybody. Certainly way more talent than Boston College. Not even close. Duke lost.

You're not getting the point. Talent compared to the competition. BC, a middle of the pack ACC team is more competitive to Duke than say a middle of the pack WCC team would be to us. In other words, we are a major team in a mid major conference, akin to UNC playing in the WCC. Context is key.

thespywhozaggedme
12-11-2017, 12:39 PM
We will lose one of the following (maybe 2)

@SDSU, @USF, BYU, @BYU, @SMC, SMC

I really don't think you follow much college basketball if you think we are winning out. As was last year we lost on senior night to BYU .... this season we've already seen MASSIVE upsets with the likes of Kansas losing to Washington, Duke losing to Boston College, Loyola Chicago taking down Florida.... on and on

Paper rosters are obviously better but to go out and win the rest of your games is kind of crazy at this point. College basketball is an art, not a science ... we will lose another game or two. Not because we aren't the better team, but because college basketball is just madness.

I will say one more thing before I close... it's going to take a weird and extremely fluky performance to lose a game the rest of the year... and the odd with 25 more games (roughly left to go) we will probably lose at least one that gives us a reality check. That reality check is that we need to bring our A game every night or we are susceptible to losing.

I watch too much. Kansas is terrible this year, like Wisky, their worst team in years and last night Bill Self publicly called his team "soft". I'm tired of repeating myself, so I won't say it again; it's not just about us, our competition just isn't very good and the talent gap between us and them is huge. I would not be surprised at all if we run the table from here on out.

Markburn1
12-11-2017, 12:48 PM
You're not getting the point. Talent compared to the competition. BC, a middle of the pack ACC team is more competitive to Duke than say a middle of the pack WCC team would be to us. In other words, we are a major team in a mid major conference, akin to UNC playing in the WCC. Context is key.

I'm not getting the point. Seriously? Boston College is a bottom feeder in the ACC. They have not recruited ACC talent for years. Duke has four or five first round draft picks on their roster. The difference between Duke's roster and Boston College's roster is akin to Gonzaga's roster and a middle of the road WCC team.

Upsets are gonna happen. That's why March Madness is what it is.

Gonzaga is much better than their league, but nearly every year they suffer at least one inexplicable loss. It just happens. That's why the probabilities that you continually ignore play out exactly as the math indicates in most years.

I'm convinced you are just arguing for the sake of arguing. Otherwise, the other option is just too painful to contemplate.

gonzagafan62
12-11-2017, 12:53 PM
You're not getting the point. Talent compared to the competition. BC, a middle of the pack ACC team is more competitive to Duke than say a middle of the pack WCC team would be to us. In other words, we are a major team in a mid major conference, akin to UNC playing in the WCC. Context is key.

Yeah but Boston college is ranked lower on Ken Pom than SDSU, SMC and BYU all teams I listed as possible losses. This team ain't superman or the Incredible Hulk... our team is damn good but I seriously doubt we run the table. Too many games... heck Loyola Chicago is ranked higher than BC, and beat Florida... something we couldn't do

seacatfan
12-11-2017, 12:56 PM
SDSU fan base is solid, they have an active message board (aztec mesa), and still believe they are neck and neck with Gonzaga for West Coast Supremacy

Wow, that's fairly delusional at this point. SDSU has fallen WAY behind GU and several Pac 12 schools. They aren't even in the conversation for Best in the West anymore. They had a nice run, but it's over. They're just another team now. They should focus more on trying to regain dominance of the MWC, that's totally slipped away from them.

Agree w/ the gist of your post, this will be a big game for the Aztecs and they will be plenty motivated. They do have some talent but they've been underachieving for at least the last 2 years, maybe longer.

seacatfan
12-11-2017, 01:02 PM
Agreed Markburn1, BC over Duke was a monumental, completely unexpected upset. They haven't gone to the Tourney since '09, haven't won a Tourney game since '07, probably don't have a single NBA player on their roster. Last 4 years in the ACC they've gone 4-14, 4-14, 0-18, 2-16. That was a BAD loss for Duke. The talent gap between Duke and BC is every bit as wide as GU and most WCC teams.

CDC84
12-11-2017, 01:09 PM
Ever seen the SDSU student section? Maybe the most underrated in the Country.

They are good, on par with today's Kennel Club, imo. We have better student location/seating, but Aztec nation was raucous. Way better than expected. I attended a game at Viejas arena a couple years ago.

13,000 fans and it was LOUD. Students were active, engaged, creative, and was blown away by them.

My best friend attended Kansas for 2 of his 3 degrees, and is a die-hard Jay Hawk. While the overall crowd/environment was better at Allen Fieldhouse, I thought SDSU's student section was just as good, if not better.

It will be a tough atmosphere to play in, and SDSU has much better guards than UW.

We are, by far, their biggest game of the season. Viejas will be pumping and their team will be desperate.

But how many students will be there??? I think school is out of session. However, as I said, it's a massive campus, and just San Diego-based students alone could fill up the student section.

I know one college basketball analyst who saw a game at SDSU when Jimmer was at BYU. He said it was the loudest venue he had every been to, bar none. And he's been to Allen Fieldhouse, Cameron Indoor, The Kennel, everywhere.........

Markburn1
12-11-2017, 01:26 PM
But how many students will be there??? I think school is out of session. However, as I said, it's a massive campus, and just San Diego-based students alone could fill up the student section.

I know one college basketball analyst who saw a game at SDSU when Jimmer was at BYU. He said it was the loudest venue he had every been to, bar none. And he's been to Allen Fieldhouse, Cameron Indoor, The Kennel, everywhere.........

Went to a regional in Anaheim back a few years when SDSU played UCONN. The SDSU fans filled a large part of the upper deck on one side. I could not believe the noise they generated. It was awesome.

tinfoilzag
12-11-2017, 01:44 PM
SDSU also has Trey Kell, Malik Pope, Nolan Norain, and Kameron Rooks who were all recruited by the Zags at one point or another.



Well that brings into question their basketball IQ, at least we got that going for us. :jk:

sittingon50
12-11-2017, 02:07 PM
Ever seen the SDSU student section? Maybe the most underrated in the Country.

They are good, on par with today's Kennel Club, imo. We have better student location/seating, but Aztec nation was raucous. Way better than expected. I attended a game at Viejas arena a couple years ago.

13,000 fans and it was LOUD. Students were active, engaged, creative, and was blown away by them.

My best friend attended Kansas for 2 of his 3 degrees, and is a die-hard Jay Hawk. While the overall crowd/environment was better at Allen Fieldhouse, I thought SDSU's student section was just as good, if not better.

It will be a tough atmosphere to play in, and SDSU has much better guards than UW.

We are, by far, their biggest game of the season. Viejas will be pumping and their team will be desperate.

Not sure what kind of a student section they will have on 12-21, however.

titopoet
12-11-2017, 02:15 PM
31-2? Uh yeah...we are getting a 1 seed.

The zags would be 32-2 if they win out. This is a fun game for fans, but I hope the Zags focus on getting better... Norvell, Rui, and Cory improving on defense, defining roles and getting better to get ready for a deep run. It is a long season and the more they improve, the better the prospects.

webspinnre
12-11-2017, 02:16 PM
your right the only math that matters is the scoreboard math and as long as we have one number higher we win

not a big believer in the probablities theory when it comes to sports

Well, not really sure what to tell you, but math is here to stay in sports. Analytics have transformed sports in the last 20 years, and they're being used because they work.

jake
12-11-2017, 02:16 PM
I agree. It is absurd to try and quantify things when you cannot factor in the human element, i.e. heart, hustle and the like.

Math is math. I'm not following those dismissing statistics. We're likely to be a less than 5 point favorite at SMC. If Vegas wasn't able to semi-accurately factor in heart, hustle, and the like, they'd be broke. Our odds of winning in Moraga are probably around 60-65%. I'll agree that there are some situational statistics where, pure probability doesn't accurately reflect that specific situation, but it's definitely going to be right in estimating the odds of running the table for the rest of the season. As you move through the games, those odds will change, but as of now our odds of going undefeated even through the WCC regular season are very very small. I think this is a fun exercise, and good discussion, but when you have 20+ games left, focusing on what single-game we might lose is probably always going to discount the chance of a loss because it then focuses your analysis on a single game or two while discounting any chance of losing the other 17-18 games.

willandi
12-11-2017, 02:44 PM
Math is math. I'm not following those dismissing statistics. We're likely to be a less than 5 point favorite at SMC. If Vegas wasn't able to semi-accurately factor in heart, hustle, and the like, they'd be broke. Our odds of winning in Moraga are probably around 60-65%. I'll agree that there are some situational statistics where, pure probability doesn't accurately reflect that specific situation, but it's definitely going to be right in estimating the odds of running the table for the rest of the season. As you move through the games, those odds will change, but as of now our odds of going undefeated even through the WCC regular season are very very small. I think this is a fun exercise, and good discussion, but when you have 20+ games left, focusing on what single-game we might lose is probably always going to discount the chance of a loss because it then focuses your analysis on a single game or two while discounting any chance of losing the other 17-18 games.

Isn't it much like the odds on a winning lottery ticket? The odds remain the same on each ticket, no matter how many you buy, or so I have been told.

Hoopaholic
12-11-2017, 02:45 PM
Well, not really sure what to tell you, but math is here to stay in sports. Analytics have transformed sports in the last 20 years, and they're being used because they work.

so how can a probability web site (the link provided) claim we have a 100% chance of winning the WCC title.......might as well not play the game

but reality tells us that there could be hiccups in the system

and probabilities are just and generally when I see them appropriately applied they give you a strength ratio within the probability....so for example when I use probabilities in my lean six for predictive analysis as it pertains to crime I get a soft, potential and hot probability based upon the data provided. It is never absolute in the probability. So when I see websites that give absolutes....or people using them as absolute or near absolute I simply shake my head because clearly other factors are not being used or there would not be a near certainty

And who checks the probability stats to see their quality and quantify their success ratio so we can get the probability of the web site being successful?


when it comes to sports I like to enjoy it because of the human engagement and trials and tribulations of those competing....

thespywhozaggedme
12-11-2017, 02:53 PM
Math is math. I'm not following those dismissing statistics. We're likely to be a less than 5 point favorite at SMC. If Vegas wasn't able to semi-accurately factor in heart, hustle, and the like, they'd be broke. Our odds of winning in Moraga are probably around 60-65%. I'll agree that there are some situational statistics where, pure probability doesn't accurately reflect that specific situation, but it's definitely going to be right in estimating the odds of running the table for the rest of the season. As you move through the games, those odds will change, but as of now our odds of going undefeated even through the WCC regular season are very very small. I think this is a fun exercise, and good discussion, but when you have 20+ games left, focusing on what single-game we might lose is probably always going to discount the chance of a loss because it then focuses your analysis on a single game or two while discounting any chance of losing the other 17-18 games.

Math is math but humans are humans. No statistic or data analytic can quantify if a star player started doing meth, or got dumped by his gf, or is a closet gay; etc. Stats can't quantify humanity

Markburn1
12-11-2017, 03:04 PM
so how can a probability web site (the link provided) claim we have a 100% chance of winning the WCC title.......might as well not play the game

but reality tells us that there could be hiccups in the system

and probabilities are just and generally when I see them appropriately applied they give you a strength ratio within the probability....so for example when I use probabilities in my lean six for predictive analysis as it pertains to crime I get a soft, potential and hot probability based upon the data provided. It is never absolute in the probability. So when I see websites that give absolutes....or people using them as absolute or near absolute I simply shake my head because clearly other factors are not being used or there would not be a near certainty

And who checks the probability stats to see their quality and quantify their success ratio so we can get the probability of the web site being successful?


when it comes to sports I like to enjoy it because of the human engagement and trials and tribulations of those competing....

The only link to a probability website on this thread is the one I provide. Where does it say the Zags have a 100% probability that they will win the WCC title?

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/gonzaga-bulldogs/projections

The upper right shows the probability of winning individual games. Their are probabilities of what record they will finish with.

Farther down it shows a probability of 76.6% of winning the conference and a 65.7% probability of winning their conference tournament.

The projected record in conference is 16.4 wins and 1.6 losses.

I think you must be missing something.

jake
12-11-2017, 03:51 PM
Isn't it much like the odds on a winning lottery ticket? The odds remain the same on each ticket, no matter how many you buy, or so I have been told.

I've never been able to crack those lottery ticket odds. :-) Your odds of winning the lottery would increase by buying more tickets, but the odds of any one ticket winning would be the same.

webspinnre
12-11-2017, 03:53 PM
so how can a probability web site (the link provided) claim we have a 100% chance of winning the WCC title.......might as well not play the game

but reality tells us that there could be hiccups in the system

and probabilities are just and generally when I see them appropriately applied they give you a strength ratio within the probability....so for example when I use probabilities in my lean six for predictive analysis as it pertains to crime I get a soft, potential and hot probability based upon the data provided. It is never absolute in the probability. So when I see websites that give absolutes....or people using them as absolute or near absolute I simply shake my head because clearly other factors are not being used or there would not be a near certainty

And who checks the probability stats to see their quality and quantify their success ratio so we can get the probability of the web site being successful?


when it comes to sports I like to enjoy it because of the human engagement and trials and tribulations of those competing....

People are incorrectly using them as absolutes. There are definitely confidence intervals, but most sites don't publish them.

jake
12-11-2017, 03:57 PM
Math is math but humans are humans. No statistic or data analytic can quantify if a star player started doing meth, or got dumped by his gf, or is a closet gay; etc. Stats can't quantify humanity

I agree. I'm not saying statistics/probability is perfect in every specific situation. There are always going to be things that numbers can't quantify. Statistics/probabilities are usually "wrong" because they show odds and most likely outcomes, not what actually happens, which is almost always different. My main point was that basic statistics show our odds of winning out are very very low, and when we focus on what one or two games we might lose it has a tendency to overstate our chances of winning out by assuming wins in all other games. I think in some sense I completely agree with you that sports is a lot more than numbers.

thespywhozaggedme
12-11-2017, 04:26 PM
I agree. I'm not saying statistics/probability is perfect in every specific situation. There are always going to be things that numbers can't quantify. Statistics/probabilities are usually "wrong" because they show odds and most likely outcomes, not what actually happens, which is almost always different. My main point was that basic statistics show our odds of winning out are very very low, and when we focus on what one or two games we might lose it has a tendency to overstate our chances of winning out by assuming wins in all other games. I think in some sense I completely agree with you that sports is a lot more than numbers.

I agree but it still does not negate my main point which is that it does not factor in the human element. That's why gambling is such folly.

zagfan24
12-11-2017, 05:15 PM
I agree but it still does not negate my main point which is that it does not factor in the human element. That's why gambling is such folly.

Statistics are all about probabilities, understanding that there are almost always the chances that something goes awry. The human element you refer to is akin to the error term used in calculating probabilities. Still, predictive analytics are often very accurate if interpreted correctly. I don't know any statistician, sports analytics junkie, or "sabermetrician" who would argue that numbers can capture everything in sports. That doesn't mean it's worth throwing out the baby with the bathwater. We can learn a lot from statistics precisely because they can, in many circumstances, help reduce the inherent bias in the eye test. Still, formulas and metrics are only as good as the person designing them and the person interpreting them.

Pleasant Peninsula
12-11-2017, 05:34 PM
Keep in mind, that OP's prediction of running the table has a 13.5% chance of happening, that's a pretty decent slice of the probability pie, and I'm gonna go on the limb with Spy -- the Zags aren't losing again, and they will most certainly be a #1 seed if that happens.

zag67
12-11-2017, 05:38 PM
I would love to see 33-1, but believe the 32-2 is reallistic. I agree on Norvell, Rui, and Cory. Also I think that if Larsen improves in the middle that is going to make us even better and possibly make a deeper run than many expect.

ZagsObserver
12-11-2017, 08:01 PM
Keep in mind, that OP's prediction of running the table has a 13.5% chance of happening, that's a pretty decent slice of the probability pie, and I'm gonna go on the limb with Spy -- the Zags aren't losing again, and they will most certainly be a #1 seed if that happens.

They should lose, based on probability. They could win out, obviously, and it wouldn’t be the craziest thing that’s happened in modern history. That being said, you are probably looking at a 1 in 8 event, and I’m not one to take risks, even with my predictions

EEzag
12-12-2017, 07:10 AM
They should lose, based on probability. They could win out, obviously, and it wouldnít be the craziest thing thatís happened in modern history. That being said, you are probably looking at a 1 in 8 event, and Iím not one to take risks, even with my predictions

Other than Texas which was on a neutral court, do we have a good road win? One that would justify a 1 seed?

TexasZagFan
12-12-2017, 07:23 AM
Other than Texas which was on a neutral court, do we have a good road win? One that would justify a 1 seed?

I'd classify the UW victory as a "good road win". We have another opportunity for a good road win at SDSU. Would they be enough to justify a 1 seed? Probably not, unless they're on a 20+ game win streak heading into Vegas.

gonzagafan62
12-12-2017, 07:26 AM
Other than Texas which was on a neutral court, do we have a good road win? One that would justify a 1 seed?

Nope

thespywhozaggedme
12-12-2017, 09:04 AM
Other than Texas which was on a neutral court, do we have a good road win? One that would justify a 1 seed?

32-2 justifies a 1 seed

Markburn1
12-12-2017, 12:29 PM
32-2 justifies a 1 seed

2015. 32-2

Seeded #2

zagfan24
12-12-2017, 12:42 PM
Seeding is all relative. A simple record doesn't deserve a seed...it's not only based on who you played, beat, and didn't beat, but also on the relative record and success of other teams. Already some big upsets this year which could help the Zags. But the reality is there are some very good teams that would need to disappoint for the Zags to hit a top seed EVEN if they would win out.

SunDevilGolfZag
12-16-2017, 06:16 PM
Nice win as it turned out. Thank goodness the arrogance of this thread didn't come to roost tonight.

bartruff1
12-16-2017, 06:22 PM
What were the odds of BYU winning 3 straight in the Kennel......

GonzaGAW
12-16-2017, 06:27 PM
- we could loss to any team on the schedule, with an effort like tonight.

SunDevilGolfZag
12-16-2017, 06:34 PM
- we could loss to any team on the schedule, with an effort like tonight.

+1

ZagsObserver
12-16-2017, 06:39 PM
Infinitely more talent than the opponent. Still, you play the game. Probabilities help you understand the relative odds of an event or series of events occurring. I stand by my original prediction. They should be favored in every individual game, but they will almost certainly drop one, possibly two.

thespywhozaggedme
12-16-2017, 09:43 PM
Nice win as it turned out. Thank goodness the arrogance of this thread didn't come to roost tonight.

What a stupid post. For the umpteenth time, what we write here has literally zero baring on what occurs on the court. We are completely irrelevant in regards to the team, but apparently unlike you, I am well aware of that. I still say we win out. And it can't be "arrogant" because I literally have no ability to control it. Sheesh!