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View Full Version : Poll: Should Larsen start at center and JWIII come off the bench?



thespywhozaggedme
12-05-2017, 06:43 PM
Too many times this year I have seen JWIII too amped up making silly mistakes and fouls. Larsen, despite being a freshman is very poised and as I stated very early in the season, is extremely talented. I think a starting fc of Larsen and Tillie may be better for the team, because it not only allows for a true pf, c combo, creating mismatches with our opponents, but it lets JWIII come off of the bench giving instance offense and energy. What say you?

bartruff1
12-05-2017, 06:45 PM
no

NEC26
12-05-2017, 06:45 PM
I don't think you can do that to JW3 in his senior year. He is pushing too much though. So many turnovers.

CDC84
12-05-2017, 06:51 PM
I say no because Larsen has never played a D-1 road game, and this environment will be the toughest one of the season.

MDABE80
12-05-2017, 07:00 PM
This is a non smart thread.

katman50
12-05-2017, 07:07 PM
This is a non smart thread.

Totally agree, Abe.

cggonzaga
12-05-2017, 07:14 PM
This is a non smart thread.

For once I agree with you.

thespywhozaggedme
12-05-2017, 07:20 PM
I say no because Larsen has never played a D-1 road game, and this environment will be the toughest one of the season.

Normally I would agree with you, but the Great Dane has shown to be as cool as a cucumber. He played in the Mecca of college basketball tonight and it didn't phase him one bit. JWIII on the other hand looked like a deer in the headlights. Playing at HEC Ed wouldn't bother JL one bit.

thespywhozaggedme
12-05-2017, 07:21 PM
This is a non smart thread.

Why not? The vast majority of posts are just opinion and conjecture, just fun entertainment. Remember, the drivel that we post has no bearing whatsoever on what occurs on the court.

gonzagafan62
12-05-2017, 07:31 PM
If JW3 struggles on road vs Washington and SDSu and Larsen continues to produce id see a real benefit in this. But I would never start a frosh for the first time on the road. Recipe for disaster

NEC26
12-05-2017, 07:32 PM
I'm just glad to see Larson being a capable player right now. Encouraging to see.

ZagzKrak
12-05-2017, 07:34 PM
JW3 is not really a center...I'd like to see JL and JW3 start and have Tillie come off the bench with the first foul maybe. But either way JW3 earned his right to start last year IMHO.

seacatfan
12-05-2017, 07:34 PM
Toughest environment of the year? Hec Ed might be packed for the Zags but I don't think fans have exactly been flocking to the stands so far this year. UW is winning games but against weak competition, and some of the games have been close. Since the series renewed, every year some Zags fans make the Huskies out to be way more than they are. GU should win fairly easily.

That doesn't address the question posed by the OP in this thread. Hard to say. JWIII has been up and down. Don't forget the Florida game. Larsen has been good most of this year, but several games he looked shaky in the first half before settling down and playing better after halftime. I think I'd stick w/ JWIII as a starter for now but continue to give Larsen plenty of minutes.

Timmins is kind of a wide body for UW but not productive at all. Dickerson vs. JWIII could be an intriguing matchup.

thespywhozaggedme
12-05-2017, 07:41 PM
A lot of guys keep saying how "tough" the environment is, but has JL shown even a single ounce of fear and intimidation? If you told two people who know nothing about bball to observe JWIII and The Great Dane and see which one exhibited nerves in big games and which one was cool under pressure, what would they say?

Zagceo
12-05-2017, 07:41 PM
Why not? The vast majority of posts are just opinion and conjecture, just fun entertainment. Remember, the drivel that we post has no bearing whatsoever on what occurs on the court.

Zags gonna beat Villanova and likley go undefeated this year was good example of such “drivel”....ha ha

thespywhozaggedme
12-05-2017, 07:42 PM
Toughest environment of the year? Hec Ed might be packed for the Zags but I don't think fans have exactly been flocking to the stands so far this year. UW is winning games but against weak competition, and some of the games have been close. Since the series renewed, every year some Zags fans make the Huskies out to be way more than they are. GU should win fairly easily.

That doesn't address the question posed by the OP in this thread. Hard to say. JWIII has been up and down. Don't forget the Florida game. Larsen has been good most of this year, but several games he looked shaky in the first half before settling down and playing better after halftime. I think I'd stick w/ JWIII as a starter for now but continue to give Larsen plenty of minutes.

Timmins is kind of a wide body for UW but not productive at all. Dickerson vs. JWIII could be an intriguing matchup.

Excellent, well thought out post. Dickerson is having a great year thus far and when he was thinking about transferring, I was hoping we'd land him. You're right, I'm very curious to see how JWIII fares against him.

thespywhozaggedme
12-05-2017, 07:43 PM
Zags gonna beat Villanova and likley go undefeated this year was good example of such “drivel”....ha ha

Yes it was. I have no problem admitting that I was wrong. I've been married 15 years, I wake up wrong.

sittingon50
12-05-2017, 07:44 PM
You mean the guy that was MVP of last year's NCAA Regional & on the PK80 All Tourney 1st team?

:fingergun:

thespywhozaggedme
12-05-2017, 07:47 PM
You mean the guy that was MVP of last year's NCAA Regional & on the PK80 All Tourney 1st team?

No, I'm talking about the guy that had 5 points, 5 fouls and ZERO rebounds tonight. See, I can cherry pick stats that fit my narrative too. lol

scrooner
12-05-2017, 07:52 PM
Unless my memory is off, Larsen kind of reminds me of Batista. JP was 2 inches shorter & 40lbs heavier, but the stats seem similar.

Larsen so far (age 20):
12min, 5.1pts, 4.1rb, 2P% .619, FT% .750

Batista year 1 (age 23):
25 min, 12.4pts, 6.2rb, 2P% .612, FT% .802

Batista year 2:
32 min, 19.3pts, 9.4rb, 2P% .594, FT% .833

thespywhozaggedme
12-05-2017, 07:55 PM
Unless my memory is off, Larsen kind of reminds me of Batista. JP was 2 inches shorter & 40lbs heavier, but the stats seem similar.

Larsen so far (age 20):
12min, 5.1pts, 4.1rb, 2P% .619, FT% .750

Batista year 1 (age 23):
25 min, 12.4pts, 6.2rb, 2P% .612, FT% .802

Batista year 2:
32 min, 19.3pts, 9.4rb, 2P% .594, FT% .833

I think it's an even easier comp. He's a much more athletic, much better in shape Shem. He does all of the good that Shem did, great advanced post moves, great vision and passer and more that Shem couldn't do; JL tries to always dunk, doesn't drop the easy pass and is a better ft shooter. The kid is gonna be a flat out stud.

tummydoc
12-05-2017, 07:57 PM
Not a crazy question. JW thrived as a pf last year, much more natural position and as pro likely where he'd earn a living. I'd love to see JL at the 5 and JW at the 4. But that leaves Tillie off the floor and I think he's our most consistent player. I think this is our last year to watch "the Eiffel tower" in a zag uniform. To valuable not to start.

sittingon50
12-05-2017, 07:59 PM
No, I'm talking about the guy that had 5 points, 5 fouls and ZERO rebounds tonight. See, I can cherry pick stats that fit my narrative too. lol

Cherry pick stats?

I just referenced 5 games. You referenced 1.

Going too fast for you?

I'll see your lol & raise you LOL.

thespywhozaggedme
12-05-2017, 08:14 PM
Cherry pick stats?

I just referenced 5 games. You referenced 1.

Going too fast for you?

I'll see your lol & raise you LOL.

I could post similar games where he was less than effective, i.e. Utah state but I did not want this to be a JW III bashing thread but conversely I didn't want posts like yours turning it into a slobber fest either.

cggonzaga
12-05-2017, 09:03 PM
I’ll stick with our leading scorer and rebounder. Sheesh, guy has one bad game and you’re ready to move on? Come on spy!

Zags11
12-05-2017, 10:29 PM
Silly. We got outclassed tonight. From top to bottom. Its one loss in a poor way.

Mantua
12-05-2017, 10:37 PM
No.

Jay Bilas needs to stay on the bench.

sittingon50
12-05-2017, 10:37 PM
I could post similar games where he was less than effective, i.e. Utah state but I did not want this to be a JW III bashing thread but conversely I didn't want posts like yours turning it into a slobber fest either.

:roll:

mgadfly
12-05-2017, 11:31 PM
Iíll stick with our leading scorer and rebounder. Sheesh, guy has one bad game and youíre ready to move on? Come on spy!

While I think it'd be insane to move away from JW3, he has been fairly miserable since the Florida game.
5 points, 0 rebounds, 3 turnovers, 5 personal fouls, offensive rating of 65 (the Will Foster line - kind of like the Mendoza Line - is 95 for comparison).
15 points, 5 rebounds, 4 turnovers, Offensive Rating of 81
9 points, 7 rebounds (efficient game with 122 O-Rating against Incarnate Word)
10 points, 4 rebounds, 6 turnovers, 4 fouls, O-Rating of 57

Throw in 5 points and 5 rebounds against Utah State (and 4 fouls) and what you have is:
An offensive efficiency rating of 101.3 for the season. Good enough for 10th on the team. (Jack Beach is worse)
A true shot percentage of 55.6, 9th on the team (Jesse Wade and Jack Beach are worse)
He's had 2 offensive rebounds in the last three games, dropping him from a solid number to 8.7% (Larsen at 14.9 and Hachimura at 10.3).
He fifth in defensive rebounding percentage.
He is 8th on our team in FT%. (Better than Wade, Jones and Beach)
7th in 2PFG% (Better than Perkins, Melson, and Beach)
He is 9th in 3FG% (Better than Beach)
He is behind Tillie (4.7%) and Larsen (6.5%) in blocked shots (3.4%).

Basically, he has been a high usage player with incredibly inefficient statistics. This is consistent with what he did when Missouri asked him to be THE GUY. O-Rating as a freshman was 105.8 with a usage rate of 13.9%. As a sophomore, his O-Rating dipped to 90.4 with a usage rate of 25.2. He is currently at 101.3 with a usage rate of 24.1 after being a solid 115 O-rating with a usage rate of 18.9.

Even though possession based metrics show him to be considerably worse than Larsen, I think part of the reason is we are trying to make him something he is not. He is not a premier go-to guy. He is an excellent secondary or third option. He was fantastic last year playing off of other playmakers, but like his sophomore season, he is struggling to be the playmaker. I'd love to see his usage dip from 24.1 to 19% or so. Play through Tillie and Larsen more (with him on the court with Larsen) to get him some weak-side rebounding and scoring opportunities to get him going.

It's possible that he'll flip the switch (especially during WCC play) and become something he has never been, but it is also possible that getting him a few easier looks as the offense is run through one of the other bigs would be good for him and developing the other player.

For the record, Reborn does not approve of this message or endorse it in any way.

GonzagasaurusFlex
12-06-2017, 02:06 AM
JW3 is not really a center...I'd like to see JL and JW3 start and have Tillie come off the bench with the first foul maybe. But either way JW3 earned his right to start last year IMHO.

This. JWIII deserves to start but coaches need to help him succeed by allowing him to play his natural PF spot.

imho, JWIII is trying too hard and not letting the game come to him + Zags are feeding into that by forcing him to be a ďpost up down on the block and go to workĒ type player...that was good for Karnowski but not for JWIII. Itís his senior season, he aspires to play professionally and itís as if the pressure to perform and earn an opportunity to do so is already on his mind. Just ball out and enjoy your senior year JWIII...ZagNation loves you already.

ZagNation
12-06-2017, 03:21 AM
Too many times this year I have seen JWIII too amped up making silly mistakes and fouls. Larsen, despite being a freshman is very poised and as I stated very early in the season, is extremely talented. I think a starting fc of Larsen and Tillie may be better for the team, because it not only allows for a true pf, c combo, creating mismatches with our opponents, but it lets JWIII come off of the bench giving instance offense and energy. What say you?

Are you as annoying in person? Or is it just an internet thing?

RenoZag
12-06-2017, 05:08 AM
I'm just glad to see Larson being a capable player right now. Encouraging to see.


Iíll stick with our leading scorer and rebounder. Sheesh, guy has one bad game and youíre ready to move on? Come on spy!

Voices of reason

thespywhozaggedme
12-06-2017, 05:22 AM
I’ll stick with our leading scorer and rebounder. Sheesh, guy has one bad game and you’re ready to move on? Come on spy!

A. It wasn't "1 bad game", he put up a stinker vs USU as well.
B. I'm not ready to "move on" , I merely posed the question as in our biggest game of the year, one player was a bundle of nerves and disappeared and the other, a freshman was cool, calm and collected and dominated.
C. Is it bad to suggest that our senior stud may be best served as instant energy off of the bench?

thespywhozaggedme
12-06-2017, 05:23 AM
Are you as annoying in person? Or is it just an internet thing?

No, I'm even more annoying in person. I can't even stand being around me.

cjm720
12-06-2017, 05:43 AM
You mean bench the guy who put up 39 and 12 a few games ago?

No

Zaga
12-06-2017, 05:51 AM
Why not? The vast majority of posts are just opinion and conjecture, just fun entertainment. Remember, the drivel that we post has no bearing whatsoever on what occurs on the court.

So true.

Ekrub
12-06-2017, 06:04 AM
Larsen has earned more minutes but he is not starting material yet. Jw3 and tillie are both pf, but clearly better than Larsen. Larsen will be big time in two years.

thespywhozaggedme
12-06-2017, 06:24 AM
You mean bench the guy who put up 39 and 12 a few games ago?

No

ok. fair enough

Reborn
12-06-2017, 06:27 AM
Even though possession based metrics show him to be considerably worse than Larsen, I think part of the reason is we are trying to make him something he is not. He is not a premier go-to guy. He is an excellent secondary or third option. He was fantastic last year playing off of other playmakers, but like his sophomore season, he is struggling to be the playmaker. I'd love to see his usage dip from 24.1 to 19% or so. Play through Tillie and Larsen more (with him on the court with Larsen) to get him some weak-side rebounding and scoring opportunities to get him going.

For the record, Reborn does not approve of this message or endorse it in any way.

Ha ha ha. WRONG. HAHAHA Reborn thinks that this is the best post so far. All of it. The statistics match the eye test. I have completely changed my opinion of JWIII. In my opinion, I've defended him long enough. I think the biggest reason for his failure is that he is playing out of position, and that he has tried to be the go to guy (as you said). He ruins everything that has been good about Gonzaga's offense for many, many years. The picture I have of JWIII is that whenever he gets the ball, he holds it for like ten seconds, then makes his move as he stumbles toward the rim and throws up one more impossible shot. He doesn't know how to pass out of a double or triple team. He seldom passes. He prefers to throw up a stupid shot that has no ability to get through the hoop.

Last year he was our best defensive player. This year he our worst. He doesn't even rebound any more. I am sure he is beginning to see his stock in making an NBA team has gone way down. Maybe his biggest problem is thinking too much about the NBA. Gonzaga, has had a huge problem at the beginning of the games. The first has been trying to go through JWIII like we did with Shemmick. JWIII is no Shemmick Karnowski. The second is Kispert picking up his 1st foul like 2 or 3 minutes into the game. I would try moving JWIII to his position last year and start Larsen.

There is no doubt in my mind that Larsen is the better center, and he plays it the way Few likes his centers to play. He is a fantastic passer like Mt K was, a good defender and rebounder. He has really good hands. He doesn't pick up stupid fouls.

77Zag
12-06-2017, 06:33 AM
Really -- I like what Larsen brings, but this is foolish. JWIII drops 39 on Florida and isn't a starter? He will get it back, in Few we trust.

Go Zags --

rennis
12-06-2017, 06:36 AM
This made me LOL!! Good one, OP

mgadfly
12-06-2017, 07:25 AM
Ha ha ha. WRONG. I have completely changed my opinion of JWIII. In my opinion, I've defended him long enough.


Now is the time to buy JW3 stock, not sell it. 7 of our next 9 games are against teams about as good as Incarnate Word and an 8th is the UW. He is going to look like an All-American during the stretch. A generational player unequaled by any power forward we've ever had (Harris who? Sabonis? Wiltjer? Calvary? forgotten) rocketing up draft boards and cementing a place in the hearts of all true Zag fans. I'm projecting 90% free throw shooting during the stretch.

TexasZagFan
12-06-2017, 07:47 AM
Now is the time to buy JW3 stock, not sell it. 7 of our next 9 games are against teams about as good as Incarnate Word and an 8th is the UW. He is going to look like an All-American during the stretch. A generational player unequaled by any power forward we've ever had (Harris who? Sabonis? Wiltjer? Calvary? forgotten) rocketing up draft boards and cementing a place in the hearts of all true Zag fans. I'm projecting 90% free throw shooting during the stretch.

IIRC, J3's performance at this time last year was similar. He was pressing, trying to find his place within the system. Was wildly inconsistent from game to game until January. Although I wouldn't classify Johnathan as a "generational player", I think he'll work out his issues, excluding FT shooting.

gueastcoast
12-06-2017, 07:48 AM
I think it's an even easier comp. He's a much more athletic, much better in shape Shem. He does all of the good that Shem did, great advanced post moves, great vision and passer and more that Shem couldn't do; JL tries to always dunk, doesn't drop the easy pass and is a better ft shooter. The kid is gonna be a flat out stud.

I loves me some Larsen, but as they say on those NFL telecasts....c'mon man. He's nowhere near where Shem was as a junior and redshirt senior. Shem's passing ability and moves around the basket were well beyond where Larsen is now. That's not a knock on the young man, and I hope he'll get there, but honestly.

23dpg
12-06-2017, 07:53 AM
I dislike how the question is even framed.

JWill should start because he is better.

mgadfly
12-06-2017, 08:00 AM
IIRC, J3's performance at this time last year was similar. He was pressing, trying to find his place within the system. Was wildly inconsistent from game to game until January. Although I wouldn't classify Johnathan as a "generational player", I think he'll work out his issues, excluding FT shooting.

The FT shooting was a bit of a stretch. But you are right. Last year he scored double digits in 4 of 12 non-conference games and had some real clunkers when it came to overall performance as well. For example, he had 9 blocks in all 12 non-con games combined and then 5 against SMC. Then he had 8 double-digit scoring games in the first 12 conference games (so he completely flipped the script).

He is going to look very good from now to the end of the regular season. I hope that means he can dominate more talented tournament teams. And if I'm answering the original question here, I don't change the starters at all, but Larsen would come in sooner and give more minutes where he is the center and JW3/Tillie are the PFs. I think everyone would benefit from that decision.

mgadfly
12-06-2017, 08:06 AM
I loves me some Larsen, but as they say on those NFL telecasts....c'mon man. He's nowhere near where Shem was as a junior and redshirt senior. Shem's passing ability and moves around the basket were well beyond where Larsen is now. That's not a knock on the young man, and I hope he'll get there, but honestly.

While my eyes (and memory) agree with your assessment, a quick look at KenPom's page has me wondering:

Shem assist rates: 16.1 (Sr.), 10.9 (Jr.), 5.8 (So.), 4.0 (Fr.)
Larsen's assist rate: 16.8 (Fr.)

I think the big difference is that Shem, when on the court, was always our go-to guy with usage rates of 26.6 (Fr.), 19.6 (So.), 22.6 (Jr.), and 25.7 (Sr.) while Larsen only takes about 14% of the shots while on the court. I think that is because Shem was bigger, stronger, with better post moves (if lesser athleticism) at a younger age. But I think I was underrating Larsen's passing now that I've looked at the numbers, and making things look easy (rather than making a spectacular pass) shouldn't count against him.

TexasZagFan
12-06-2017, 08:11 AM
The FT shooting was a bit of a stretch. But you are right. Last year he scored double digits in 4 of 12 non-conference games and had some real clunkers when it came to overall performance as well. For example, he had 9 blocks in all 12 non-con games combined and then 5 against SMC. Then he had 8 double-digit scoring games in the first 12 conference games (so he completely flipped the script).

He is going to look very good from now to the end of the regular season. I hope that means he can dominate more talented tournament teams. And if I'm answering the original question here, I don't change the starters at all, but Larsen would come in sooner and give more minutes where he is the center and JW3/Tillie are the PFs. I think everyone would benefit from that decision.

I'm not looking for J3 to dominate against tournament teams. I'll be happy if he plays within himself, and not forcing shots. When he forces the action, it usually leads to a TO or offensive foul.

Larsen is a good fit when Tillie's on the court. They work very well together.

former1dog
12-06-2017, 08:15 AM
I agree with Reborn. The preponderence of evidence is that JWIII is slumping and its hurting the team. Larsen is playing splendidly and the offense hums when he's in the game.

My vote would be to play the triple towers with Larsen at center, JWIII at the pf and Tillie as a very big sf. Tillie and JWIII are both capable of defending smaller players so that won't be a problem.

Zaga
12-06-2017, 08:20 AM
I agree with Reborn. The preponderence of evidence is that JWIII is slumping and its hurting the team. Larsen is playing splendidly and the offense hums when he's in the game.

My vote would be to play the triple towers with Larsen at center, JWIII at the pf and Tillie as a very big sf. Tillie and JWIII are both capable of defending smaller players so that won't be a problem.

In the short term it seems obvious to me as well.

irishzag_09
12-06-2017, 08:56 AM
Here's an idea: Play JWIII WITH Larsen and Tillie, Silas and Perkins...so Kispert doesn't start, so what. The few times we played big last night Tillie high-low pass to Larsen was effective vs. Nova because we were bigger at the moment. And it was the same way we played all last year...this is not last year's team, but when you have big bodies on the flour and the ref's are calling all the fouls like last night's game vs. Nova getting them in foul trouble, why not do this? Imagine if we did this, we could of run offense, played inside out, which would then force Nova to double team and open up or outstide shot after dumping it inside, and we could maybe went to the free throw line maybe 10 more times...it's simply mind-blowing when something starts to work, we go away from it. I know Villanova's defense effected us, but I know the guys can figure out a ball fake pass, and then deliver the ball to the big down low.

tinfoilzag
12-06-2017, 09:28 AM
Like E. Harris and S. Dower before him, JW3 seems to do better when he isn't the first option and allows the game to come to him.

When he tries to create and force it, he's not as effective.

Baseline
12-06-2017, 09:43 AM
JW3 deserves to start over Larsen, but Larsen also deserves more minutes with what he has shown. JW3 is pressing and is trying too hard and in big games, this can be a recipe for disaster. The flow is better when Larsen is playing as the ball keeps moving. When JW3 gets the ball the flow stops while he stands and decides what his move is. He rarely passes the ball away and forces a shot instead. Other teams have noted this and are doubling and tripling him without much worry of getting burned. Larsen is a better rebounder and passer with better hands. I say to start giving Larsen more minutes until things correct.
The schedule is going to get easy and JW3 will probably start dominating without any of the problems being solved, but they will show up again in March and it could be a disaster. Getting Larsen up to speed may pay off more. This is a tough issue as JW3 has paid his dues and should not be cast under the bus easily, but the objective is to field the best team and win. Few has a tough problem.

sittingon50
12-06-2017, 10:38 AM
So 53 posts & unless I missed it, no one has mentioned his foul situation.

I was scratching my head last night trying to figure out what a foul was (particularly in the 2nd half). It was going both ways, so not claiming bias. But JIII could never get in any sort of rhythm. How did the officiating in the NC last year effect Collins? When the Zags got smoked by Nevada in the NCAA's, Turiaf played all of 15 minutes because of fouls. Think it affected him or the outcome of the game?

IMO, it's not just because he sucked.


(please excuse if I have used effect & affect improperly. It's one of many things in this life that I have never figured out)

Kong-Kool-Aid
12-06-2017, 01:28 PM
Stupid thread.

RenoZag
12-06-2017, 01:45 PM
JWIII was bested by better athletes (and the zebras) in one game. His shortcomings were no worse than some of Sacre's poor nights and I don't recall folks creating polls or posting threads questioning whether or not he should start.

$0.02

etcetera.

Have a great afternoon.

thespywhozaggedme
12-06-2017, 02:01 PM
JWIII was bested by better athletes (and the zebras) in one game. His shortcomings were no worse than some of Sacre's poor nights and I don't recall folks creating polls or posting threads questioning whether or not he should start.

$0.02

etcetera.

Have a great afternoon.

Honest question because I don't remember. Was their a 7'0 freshman stud who had advanced post and rebounding skills and was cool, calm and collected regardless of the environment? I think Olynyk may have been their but he was the epitome of raw.

Zags11
12-06-2017, 02:59 PM
In the short term it seems obvious to me as well.


Honest question because I don't remember. Was their a 7'0 freshman stud who had advanced post and rebounding skills and was cool, calm and collected regardless of the environment? I think Olynyk may have been their but he was the epitome of raw.

Jw3 is playing 5 when he is a 4. Talk to few.

Zagdawg
12-06-2017, 03:01 PM
Few doing what makes sense until Larsen is ready to step in.

When Larsen is ready to start who starts at forward -- Tillie or JW3?

Zags11
12-06-2017, 03:03 PM
Few doing what makes sense until Larsen is ready to step in.

When Larsen is ready to start who starts at forward -- Tillie or JW3?

Do you want a physical or finesse player?

cggonzaga
12-06-2017, 05:08 PM
Few doing what makes sense until Larsen is ready to step in.

When Larsen is ready to start who starts at forward -- Tillie or JW3?

Outside of an injury to Williams or Tillie I can guarantee you Larsen will not start this year.

JPtheBeasta
12-06-2017, 07:22 PM
I think Few is on record in the Villanova post-game press that he sees Larsen as a 10-15 minutes/game guy.

soccerdud
12-06-2017, 09:15 PM
While I think it'd be insane to move away from JW3, he has been fairly miserable since the Florida game.
5 points, 0 rebounds, 3 turnovers, 5 personal fouls, offensive rating of 65 (the Will Foster line - kind of like the Mendoza Line - is 95 for comparison).
15 points, 5 rebounds, 4 turnovers, Offensive Rating of 81
9 points, 7 rebounds (efficient game with 122 O-Rating against Incarnate Word)
10 points, 4 rebounds, 6 turnovers, 4 fouls, O-Rating of 57

Throw in 5 points and 5 rebounds against Utah State (and 4 fouls) and what you have is:
An offensive efficiency rating of 101.3 for the season. Good enough for 10th on the team. (Jack Beach is worse)
A true shot percentage of 55.6, 9th on the team (Jesse Wade and Jack Beach are worse)
He's had 2 offensive rebounds in the last three games, dropping him from a solid number to 8.7% (Larsen at 14.9 and Hachimura at 10.3).
He fifth in defensive rebounding percentage.
He is 8th on our team in FT%. (Better than Wade, Jones and Beach)
7th in 2PFG% (Better than Perkins, Melson, and Beach)
He is 9th in 3FG% (Better than Beach)
He is behind Tillie (4.7%) and Larsen (6.5%) in blocked shots (3.4%).

Basically, he has been a high usage player with incredibly inefficient statistics. This is consistent with what he did when Missouri asked him to be THE GUY. O-Rating as a freshman was 105.8 with a usage rate of 13.9%. As a sophomore, his O-Rating dipped to 90.4 with a usage rate of 25.2. He is currently at 101.3 with a usage rate of 24.1 after being a solid 115 O-rating with a usage rate of 18.9.

Even though possession based metrics show him to be considerably worse than Larsen, I think part of the reason is we are trying to make him something he is not. He is not a premier go-to guy. He is an excellent secondary or third option. He was fantastic last year playing off of other playmakers, but like his sophomore season, he is struggling to be the playmaker. I'd love to see his usage dip from 24.1 to 19% or so. Play through Tillie and Larsen more (with him on the court with Larsen) to get him some weak-side rebounding and scoring opportunities to get him going.

It's possible that he'll flip the switch (especially during WCC play) and become something he has never been, but it is also possible that getting him a few easier looks as the offense is run through one of the other bigs would be good for him and developing the other player.

For the record, Reborn does not approve of this message or endorse it in any way.

best post by anyone not named me that i've seen in a long time.

edit: actually, mgadfly was just spot on from beginning to end in this thread. well done.

Bogozags
12-07-2017, 06:03 AM
For centuries Syracuse has feasted using its 2-3 zone. They have won an NC and have been to several FFs/E8's!

I would like to see, for this season, adapt the Syracuse zone with both Larsen being the cog in the wheel with Tillie and JWIII being the extended spokes of this wheel. This would create a tremendous match-up problem for defences having to cope with JWIII as the "4" as he was last year and HE CAN BE AS SUCCESSFUL again this season as he was last season with PK in the post. Larsen is an extremely good passer playing the "5" - much better that PK was as a freshman.

If we remember, we started DS, PK and Wiljter at the same time against Pitt in Okinawa but GU tried to play them all in M-M...

So I guess my answer is "NO" Larsen should not replace JWII but rather join him and Tillie.

thespywhozaggedme
12-07-2017, 06:24 AM
While I think it'd be insane to move away from JW3, he has been fairly miserable since the Florida game.
5 points, 0 rebounds, 3 turnovers, 5 personal fouls, offensive rating of 65 (the Will Foster line - kind of like the Mendoza Line - is 95 for comparison).
15 points, 5 rebounds, 4 turnovers, Offensive Rating of 81
9 points, 7 rebounds (efficient game with 122 O-Rating against Incarnate Word)
10 points, 4 rebounds, 6 turnovers, 4 fouls, O-Rating of 57

Throw in 5 points and 5 rebounds against Utah State (and 4 fouls) and what you have is:
An offensive efficiency rating of 101.3 for the season. Good enough for 10th on the team. (Jack Beach is worse)
A true shot percentage of 55.6, 9th on the team (Jesse Wade and Jack Beach are worse)
He's had 2 offensive rebounds in the last three games, dropping him from a solid number to 8.7% (Larsen at 14.9 and Hachimura at 10.3).
He fifth in defensive rebounding percentage.
He is 8th on our team in FT%. (Better than Wade, Jones and Beach)
7th in 2PFG% (Better than Perkins, Melson, and Beach)
He is 9th in 3FG% (Better than Beach)
He is behind Tillie (4.7%) and Larsen (6.5%) in blocked shots (3.4%).

Basically, he has been a high usage player with incredibly inefficient statistics. This is consistent with what he did when Missouri asked him to be THE GUY. O-Rating as a freshman was 105.8 with a usage rate of 13.9%. As a sophomore, his O-Rating dipped to 90.4 with a usage rate of 25.2. He is currently at 101.3 with a usage rate of 24.1 after being a solid 115 O-rating with a usage rate of 18.9.

Even though possession based metrics show him to be considerably worse than Larsen, I think part of the reason is we are trying to make him something he is not. He is not a premier go-to guy. He is an excellent secondary or third option. He was fantastic last year playing off of other playmakers, but like his sophomore season, he is struggling to be the playmaker. I'd love to see his usage dip from 24.1 to 19% or so. Play through Tillie and Larsen more (with him on the court with Larsen) to get him some weak-side rebounding and scoring opportunities to get him going.

It's possible that he'll flip the switch (especially during WCC play) and become something he has never been, but it is also possible that getting him a few easier looks as the offense is run through one of the other bigs would be good for him and developing the other player.

For the record, Reborn does not approve of this message or endorse it in any way.

This post has gone virtually ignored because it is rooted in analytics and not emotion.

TexasZagFan
12-07-2017, 06:35 AM
This post has gone virtually ignored because it is rooted in analytics and not emotion.

Call me old school, but our analytics are usually better when we make that "extra pass". Our analytics have been poor when J3 handles the rock.

JPtheBeasta
12-07-2017, 06:47 AM
This post has gone virtually ignored because it is rooted in analytics and not emotion.

Comments like this will tend to alienate you from people that might otherwise engage with your ideas. I quite dispassionately think JW3 should start.

Zagceo
12-07-2017, 07:24 AM
Now is the time to buy JW3 stock, not sell it. 7 of our next 9 games are against teams about as good as Incarnate Word and an 8th is the UW. He is going to look like an All-American during the stretch. A generational player unequaled by any power forward we've ever had (Harris who? Sabonis? Wiltjer? Calvary? forgotten) rocketing up draft boards and cementing a place in the hearts of all true Zag fans. I'm projecting 90% free throw shooting during the stretch.

so his FT percentage is more nerves than technic in your opinion?

thespywhozaggedme
12-07-2017, 07:30 AM
Comments like this will tend to alienate you from people that might otherwise engage with your ideas. I quite dispassionately think JW3 should start.

Alienate me? lol this is just a message board where we're kicking around ideas. We're not curing cancer here. lol

mgadfly
12-07-2017, 07:42 AM
so his FT percentage is more nerves than technic in your opinion?

No, that's not my opinion.

Bogozags
12-07-2017, 07:50 AM
While I think it'd be insane to move away from JW3, he has been fairly miserable since the Florida game.
5 points, 0 rebounds, 3 turnovers, 5 personal fouls, offensive rating of 65 (the Will Foster line - kind of like the Mendoza Line - is 95 for comparison).
15 points, 5 rebounds, 4 turnovers, Offensive Rating of 81
9 points, 7 rebounds (efficient game with 122 O-Rating against Incarnate Word)
10 points, 4 rebounds, 6 turnovers, 4 fouls, O-Rating of 57

Throw in 5 points and 5 rebounds against Utah State (and 4 fouls) and what you have is:
An offensive efficiency rating of 101.3 for the season. Good enough for 10th on the team. (Jack Beach is worse)
A true shot percentage of 55.6, 9th on the team (Jesse Wade and Jack Beach are worse)
He's had 2 offensive rebounds in the last three games, dropping him from a solid number to 8.7% (Larsen at 14.9 and Hachimura at 10.3).
He fifth in defensive rebounding percentage.
He is 8th on our team in FT%. (Better than Wade, Jones and Beach)
7th in 2PFG% (Better than Perkins, Melson, and Beach)
He is 9th in 3FG% (Better than Beach)
He is behind Tillie (4.7%) and Larsen (6.5%) in blocked shots (3.4%).

Basically, he has been a high usage player with incredibly inefficient statistics. This is consistent with what he did when Missouri asked him to be THE GUY. O-Rating as a freshman was 105.8 with a usage rate of 13.9%. As a sophomore, his O-Rating dipped to 90.4 with a usage rate of 25.2. He is currently at 101.3 with a usage rate of 24.1 after being a solid 115 O-rating with a usage rate of 18.9.

Even though possession based metrics show him to be considerably worse than Larsen, I think part of the reason is we are trying to make him something he is not. He is not a premier go-to guy. He is an excellent secondary or third option. He was fantastic last year playing off of other playmakers, but like his sophomore season, he is struggling to be the playmaker. I'd love to see his usage dip from 24.1 to 19% or so. Play through Tillie and Larsen more (with him on the court with Larsen) to get him some weak-side rebounding and scoring opportunities to get him going.

It's possible that he'll flip the switch (especially during WCC play) and become something he has never been, but it is also possible that getting him a few easier looks as the offense is run through one of the other bigs would be good for him and developing the other player.

For the record, Reborn does not approve of this message or endorse it in any way.



Thank you for taking the time to dig up all those statistics - an excellent, honest and factual post!

These figures somewhat remind me of Carter in his senior season...he went from starting to a player coming off the bench. He had a very disappointing season! I do wonder how he is doing after graduating from GU...I hope well!

Ok, Coach Few and the staff see the same statistics and IMO will make a similar decision on JWIII...it's all about performance and he isn't performing up to expectations...again, I believe he would be much more effective playing along side Larsen and Tillie in a 2-3 zone and we would be a match-up nightmare for any team...JMHO

Zagceo
12-07-2017, 07:58 AM
No, that's not my opinion.

What are your 90% FT projections based on?

WallaWallaZag
12-07-2017, 08:24 AM
don't think larsen's quite ready...misses a ton of bunnies...needs to get that cleaned up... and i don't think he can physically play more than around 20-25 a game anyways right now.

think few has to figure out how to get jw3 untracked...throwing it to him in the post isn't working. maybe same plays he runs for rui coming on ball screen handoffs and drives to the rim.

thespywhozaggedme
12-07-2017, 08:50 AM
Call me old school, but our analytics are usually better when we make that "extra pass". Our analytics have been poor when J3 handles the rock.

I think what mgadfly showed, through data analytics is that JWIII shouldn't be our #1 option go to guy. And we can see that with our own eyes; when the ball is forced to him, sometimes he gets "stuck" and struggles with passing out of the double team. It's like he's thinking about his next move, instead of just naturally going through it. Sacre was the same way, although JWIII is a much smoother player than he.

JPtheBeasta
12-07-2017, 10:28 AM
Alienate me? lol this is just a message board where we're kicking around ideas. We're not curing cancer here. lol

What does alienating have to do with curing cancer?

It seems to me a decent idea to assume a position of a certain amount of respect for those that differ from you if you want them to engage with your ideas. Saying that someone is being irrational if they don’t agree with you is a conversation stopper. Alienation has to do with estranging, isolating, or creating animosity (which has nothing to do with a disease state; I sure hope you don’t separate yourself from someone with cancer).

JPtheBeasta
12-07-2017, 10:31 AM
I think what mgadfly showed, through data analytics is that JWIII shouldn't be our #1 option go to guy. And we can see that with our own eyes; when the ball is forced to him, sometimes he gets "stuck" and struggles with passing out of the double team. It's like he's thinking about his next move, instead of just naturally going through it. Sacre was the same way, although JWIII is a much smoother player than he.

JW3 being a better starter than Larsen vs JW3 being the go-to scorer are very different things. For clarity, are you, or the OP, arguing that Larsen should be the go-to scorer for this team?

thespywhozaggedme
12-07-2017, 10:37 AM
JW3 being a better starter than Larsen vs JW3 being the go-to scorer are very different things. For clarity, are you, or the OP, arguing that Larsen should be the go-to scorer for this team?

No, not yet but I think he has the potential by as early as next year. I think JW three maybe better served coming off the bench for his nerves as well as the team.

JPtheBeasta
12-07-2017, 11:06 AM
No, not yet but I think he has the potential by as early as next year. I think JW three maybe better served coming off the bench for his nerves as well as the team.

I agree that Larsen has the potential to be a good starter next year. I think he is good right now but have not seen a big enough sample to know how good he will be this year with extended minutes. I also do t know about those things that don’t show up in the box score, like talking on defense, anchoring the middle, and getting guys where they need to be like Karnowski did. Is he a leader? Is JW3 in for other reasons, like mobility on the outside on ball screens? Keeping defensive assignments? Stamina to compete at a high level all game? There’s a lot that coaches see that I don’t.

MDABE80
12-07-2017, 11:14 AM
If you review our last few games, guards are nearly penetrating the key whenever they want. Last year, nobody drove the key on us because Karno was always sitting in the key. Likewise Collins was a very good swatmeister.
We just don't have those this year. While I have doubts (undecided) Larsen's true value, when you see him in person and in action, he could do a lot to do of what Karno did. He's very large and a very improved athlete. Maybe he doesn't start but he should be getting a lot more time. Norvell, Josh..they need to focus on defense. The opposition guards are simply running by these two unchecked.

A lot could be gained with Larsen clogging the middle. I'd try that immediately. Larsen looks to me to be a better player than Karno in his first year ( at the same stage), he's just not that huge. Big enough though. I think we have a good one. IMO he's all of 7 ft and wide.

bballbeachbum
12-07-2017, 11:38 AM
If you review are last few games, guards are nearly penetrating the key whenever they want. Last year, nobody drove the key on us because Karno was always sitting in the key. Likewise Collins was a very good swatmeister.
We just don't have those this year. .

great point Abe, Zag rim protection not the same, some dominoes there too. but we kind of knew it would have to be different this year with the changing pieces. maybe Larsen can help fill that void. not sure if it's accurate but I think Larsen got his most extended run playing M2M d that he's seen this year as part of his performance

CdAZagFan
12-07-2017, 09:56 PM
As for the OP, I would say at this point it would depend on the matchups. I wouldn't mind seeing Larsen start at center against some bigger centers, and let JWIII move to the 4... But then again, Nova was just one loss against a very good team - not enough at this point to rock the boat too much yet.

WallaWallaZag
12-07-2017, 10:07 PM
Just re-watched nova game...jw3 wasnt all that bad aside from turnover and foul to start 2nd half...missed a couple shots but they weren't bad shots...never got chance to get going

Need better d and fewer turnovers...also better shooting from 3

sittingon50
12-10-2017, 09:23 PM
Whew, that was close. Had almost slipped to Page #3!

CDC84
12-11-2017, 01:30 AM
Well that argument ended quickly. I was the guy who felt that JWIII had to start because he's a senior and Larsen never played in a road game before. Good to see JWIII is back to his normal self. I bet Few had JWIII in his office for a pep talk. That's sometimes all a guy needs. JWIII is a senior and has been thru the wars.

Bogozags
12-11-2017, 03:14 AM
Well that argument ended quickly. I was the guy who felt that JWIII had to start because he's a senior and Larsen never played in a road game before. Good to see JWIII is back to his normal self. I bet Few had JWIII in his office for a pep talk. That's sometimes all a guy needs. JWIII is a senior and has been thru the wars.

I didn't see the UF game but I did see all the games afterwards...maybe Coach Few did have a talk with him and he did play extremely well on both sides of the court; however, I also believe his success depends on how opposing posts play him. Against VU, they were all over him preventing him from establishing himself in the paint. I would also like to add that he seemed anxious in that game...so many TO's too. Last evening he was able to get incredible position on almost every possession in the second half and of course, if you get the ball that close to the hoop, it makes scoring so much easier. He had one heck-of-a-game that's for sure!!!