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View Full Version : Zags vs. Nova - Head to Head



caduceus
12-04-2017, 10:28 PM
KenPom predictor favors a 5-point win (http://gamepredict.us/kenpom?team_a=Gonzaga&team_b=Villanova&neutral=true) for the Augustinians over the Jesuits (75-70). Nova carries the #1 efficiency ranking (https://kenpom.com/) per KenPom (#2 offense / #6 defense). The Zags are #11 (#11 O / #21 D). GU, however leads on three of the four factors, and have faced a tougher overall schedule so far. Neutral site, but basically a home game for them, given the distances and time zones. Nova's game pace is considerably slower than ours (73 vs. 78 poss/gm), guard the 3 well, and they don't miss from the FT line. It's a tall order, but a win would be a huge boost to the résumé.


Overall:
https://i.imgur.com/oFjXE22.png


Nitty Gritty:
https://i.imgur.com/rtV0A8L.png


Efficiency Stats:
https://i.imgur.com/1T9wZNK.png

source: teamrankings.com (https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/matchup/wildcats-bulldogs-2017-12-05)

MDABE80
12-04-2017, 10:49 PM
Nova's played a softer schedule and I suppose that influences all the data. That said, the offensive number favor the Zags but the key defensive stats favor them and it's a shutout. I dunno how the harder schedule favors us....or vice versa. No matter, this will be our hardest game yet...a long way from the friendly confines. I still say if we can stop their 3's and our bigs rebound well, we can win this one. (Barring TO's)

willandi
12-05-2017, 05:29 AM
Nova's played a softer schedule and I suppose that influences all the data. That said, the offensive number favor the Zags but the key defensive stats favor them and it's a shutout. I dunno how the harder schedule favors us....or vice versa. No matter, this will be our hardest game yet...a long way from the friendly confines. I still say if we can stop their 3's and our bigs rebound well, we can win this one. (Barring TO's)

The point differential also favors them, but Few likes to call off the (Bull)dogs toward the end. The bench still plays hard, and while they might start for many teams, they aren't the starters. I think that shows up some on point differential as well as defensive stats.

Chicken Ball
12-05-2017, 05:54 AM
Nova's played a softer schedule and I suppose that influences all the data.

Does it? I had the impression KenPom's stats are adjusted to reflect opponents' strength.

Seems to me that this will be a real test of our "Tough Twos" defensive philosophy, as VU is happy to turn down twos in favor of threes.


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GonzagasaurusFlex
12-05-2017, 07:17 AM
Does it? I had the impression KenPom's stats are adjusted to reflect opponents' strength.

Seems to me that this will be a real test of our "Tough Twos" defensive philosophy, as VU is happy to turn down twos in favor of threes.

Exactly, it’s all about the Zags’ 3-pt D tonight.

Also, Nova’s starting bigs are bigger, size/weight wise, than Zags’...I think Zags need to run it down their throats and try to make ‘Nova play faster than they want to. Don’t think we saw any fullcourt pressure from Zags vs Creighton. Time to get Rui at the top of the 1-2-2 press and make something happen!?

MDABE80
12-05-2017, 09:16 AM
Nova has played nobody like Ohio St, TX, FLA, Creighton.........no matter what KenPom says. It's the eye test. Outside of us, Nova's not had a schedule like the Zags.

They have two good bigs. Usually though, it's 1 big on the floor with 4 shooters. 3 pt defense will be key. They shoot it well.
We stop those 3's, hit the boards and limit TO's (Nova has a very good defense) and we can win this one. Assuming a big lid doesn't appear on the basket.
One thing nobody talks about: This Zag team is still evolving but even now, we're undervalued IMO

TexasZagFan
12-05-2017, 09:28 AM
Nova has played nobody like Ohio St, TX, FLA, Creighton.........no matter what KenPom says. It's the eye test. Outside of us, Nova's not had a schedule like the Zags.

They have two good bigs. Usually though, it's 1 big on the floor with 4 shooters. 3 pt defense will be key. They shoot it well.
We stop those 3's, hit the boards and limit TO's (Nova has a very good defense) and we can win this one. Assuming a big lid doesn't appear on the basket.
One thing nobody talks about: This Zag team is still evolving but even now, we're undervalued IMO

We thought Florida or Creighton couldn't miss from the arc. Nova looked really good against St. Joe's. Key will be to minimize the open 3's, they are deadly.

We will always be undervalued east of the Mississippi...good work on the VU board, Abe. I'd say we're the top program on the West Coast as of today.