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TravelinZag
12-01-2017, 10:05 AM
Gonzaga opponents (remember their records are 50% of GU RPI) have been unimpressive in the early going. Our out of conference opponents are a combined 23-23, and 1-5 against ranked teams. The WCC teams, other than GU, are 32-26 without a single win versus a ranked team. To be fair, GU lost to the only ranked team it played, Florida. Yeah, I know, Texas made the CBS rankings AFTER we played, but not the AP or Coaches’ poll. SMC has dropped out of the rankings.

As of now, the only ranked teams on the Zags schedule are next two opponents. Not many chances to impress the NCAA selection committee. Win both games against Creighton and Villanova, and make a statement. Split would provide no harm, but little help. Lose both, making GU 0-3 against the top 25, and the Zags could make the National Tournament. However, a seed high enough (4 or above) to guarantee GU plays the first weekend close to home could be out of reach.

Love the progress the Zags have made, but our level of competition doesn’t help, and UW, NDak, IUPUI, and San Diego State minus one of its top stars won’t help much. Those upcoming teams are 17-10 against less than great opponents.

So, would love another Final Four trip, but the recipe for a seed that guarantees a route there requires at least a split in the next two games, losing no more than 2 WCC games, including the conference tourney, plus winning four straight in The Dance’s first two weekends.

Doable! But it would help if Creighton, Villanova and St. Mary’s are top 25 teams going into selection Sunday. Of course, the Zags could just refuse to lose again!

As always, it will be a wild ride and a good year.

Go Zags! In God and Mark Few we trust! Has anyone ever seen the two of them together?

CDC84
12-01-2017, 10:31 AM
Keep in mind that Gonzaga got a number two seed in the west region in 2003/04 despite having only ONE Top 50 RPI win. I believe they were 1-2 vs. the RPI top 50. And the program back then didn't have the prestige it does now.

They got that seed because they had a ridiculous regular season record. And the WCC was just as worse if not more worse back then.

Not that it wouldn't be nice to beat Creighton and Villanova just to make sure.

But yes, this is what you get when you expand the league. No more games vs. a top 15 opponent in February to help bolster the resume.

The games that people need to worry about more are the road games at Washington and SDSU. Those 2 games could be considered bad losses by the end of the season if GU drops them. On paper they shouldn't, but the environments will likely cause both opponets to perform like top 25 teams. The SDSU game might be more subdued because the students will be on break. But I would imagine many will still stick around campus.

gozagswoohoo
12-01-2017, 10:33 AM
So, would love another Final Four trip, but the recipe for a seed that guarantees a route there requires at least a split in the next two games, losing no more than 2 WCC games, including the conference tourney, plus winning four straight in The Dance’s first two weekends.






Personally, if we split these next two games, and lost 2 WCC games, I'd actually be pretty disappointed!

mgadfly
12-01-2017, 10:43 AM
Keep in mind that Gonzaga got a number two seed in the west region in 2003/04 despite having only ONE Top 50 RPI win. I believe they were 1-2 vs. the RPI top 50. And the program back then didn't have the prestige it does now.

They got that seed because they had a ridiculous regular season record. And the WCC was just as worse if not more worse back then.

Not that it wouldn't be nice to beat Creighton and Villanova just to make sure.

But yes, this is what you get when you expand the league. No more games vs. a top 15 opponent in February to help bolster the resume.

The games that people need to worry about more are the road games at Washington and SDSU. Those 2 games could be considered bad losses by the end of the season if GU drops them. On paper they shouldn't, but the environments will likely cause both opponets to perform like top 25 teams. The SDSU game might be more subdued because the students will be on break. But I would imagine many will still stick around campus.

Were there a lot of teams just outside the top 50 that year? At least in the top 100. On Kenpom our non-conference strength of schedule was ranked #23 in 2004. This year, so far, ours is ranked #191. That will go up dramatically after Creighton and Villanova, but that is a bit scary right now as we need the non-con to be really tough to make up for the extra WCC games.

ZionZag
12-01-2017, 12:10 PM
Fun read from all of you.............keep it up

TravelinZag
12-01-2017, 01:07 PM
Responded to the excellent analysis from Omaha linked on another thread. Suggested two to three home and home games each year between the Zags and Big East teams would be mutually advantageous. As a less desirable alternative, how about a Big East/WCC challenge just as several of the largest conferences are doing? As conferences continue to expand, OOC quality scheduling becomes more difficult.

Moreover, it is clear NCAA is angling to reduce the tournament to major conferences only. In football, they pre-seed bowl game offers down to 7 or 8th place for some leagues, leaving a lot of 7-5, 6-6 or 6-7 teams going to bowls, while 9-3 teams from “lesser” leagues are frozen out. The Big East is the only non-major conference to offer quality basketball teams consistently to match the BIG10, Big 12, ACC, PAC12 and SEC. In fact, Big East and a couple other leagues offer more credible post-season basketball teams than the SEC. However, NCAA hates to recognize that. Selection by conference may be easy, but it misses the record that many large schools are primarily football or basketball schools, not both.

The current pattern threatens the long range futures for Gonzaga, Wichita State, VCU, and other schools which have proven they deserve a look frequently for the “Dance.” But that is not where things are headed.

Go Zags!