PDA

View Full Version : Why Zags have to Win OOC Games.



Markburn1
11-29-2017, 12:54 PM
St. Mary's, even with their recent stumbles, are favored to win every remaining game on their schedule except the two Gonzaga games. According to TeamRankings their odds of winning their toughest remaining games are 63% against BYU on the road and 76.6% against San Diego in the Slim Gym. The rest of their schedule shows odds of winning at 80% or better. This points out two things. First, the second best team in the WCC can't be bothered to challenge themselves out of conference and secondly, the WCC has nobody that can challenge the Gaels, let alone the Zags except when they play each other.


https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/st-marys-gaels/projections

What this means for Gonzaga is that they can't afford much more than one more loss OOC and almost have to sweep the WCC to get a protected seed. Very frustrating.

ZagsObserver
11-29-2017, 01:11 PM
The WCC is weak this year. Really weak. Gonzaga can lose to Nova. They can afford another loss or so, but the elasticity depends on how well Texas, Ohio State, Creighton and others do as the season progresses.

zagdontzig
11-29-2017, 09:29 PM
The WCC is weak this year. Really weak. Gonzaga can lose to Nova. They can afford another loss or so, but the elasticity depends on how well Texas, Ohio State, Creighton and others do as the season progresses.

Assuming we beat Creighton but lose to Nova, we won't have a single top 20 win this year

CDC84
11-30-2017, 12:36 AM
This has to be some kind of record :clap: Normally outside pundits and analysts start worrying about Gonzaga's at large status in early January. Here we can't even get to the 1st of December....even after looking like a legit top 15 team in Portland.........

A reminder: the 2003/04 team had just one top 50 RPI win and got a number 2 seed in the west region. And that was back when GU had nowhere near the brand name it has right now. That was the classic instance of a team that just kept winning and avoided bad losses.

Every year people worry about this, and yet it ALWAYS works itself out. There is NO reason to worry right now unless you want your liver to prematurely age. The WCC has had years in this run when its been just as bad as this season. In a few cases it may have been worse. It's constantly used as the reason why Gonzaga is in danger of not making it. And yet it ALWAYS works out in the end.

As I always say, there are so many factors that go into NCAA selection besides big time wins. Another favorite saying of mine: "The big time wins only help your seeding and your sins." Gonzaga's history under Few has shown that. Winning a lot of games and avoiding bad losses matters a great deal to the committee. There have been press people who have participated in the mock selection groups in February who have mentioned just how much winning matters when it comes to team selection. The committee is well aware of the fact that teams who are a part of the .801 club (meaning, teams who win more than .801 of their games, regardless of league affiliation), have a record of doing extremely well in the NCAA tourney.

Since about year 3 of Mark Few's reign as head coach, there have only been two times where they have needed to win the WCC tournament, and both of those teams were not as good as this one. Both of those teams had injuries and suspensions to deal with. That suggests to me that UNLESS Gonzaga develops serious injury issues, or unless they lose to teams they have no business losing to, they will be fine. They may not like the seed they get (this is what I worry about right now if they don't beat someone like Creighton or Villanova), but I see zero reason to panic right now.

Another favorite saying, and I say it every season: "You have to do a lot of stupid things to not make the NCAA tournament." I am 2x more worried about the games at UW and at SDSU than I am worried about the games against Villanova and Creighton. UW and SDSU could very well end up being high risk/low reward games in the end because the road environments will be so tough. You know how nasty that crowd at UW is going to be. The Huskies could come out 5x better than they actually are. It's losses like those that are the killers. And yes, losses to bad WCC teams.

I don't even start thinking about this stuff until the non-league season ends, and even then, it's really more a matter of how many WCC games can GU afford to lose, must they win both the regular season and postseason tourneys, can they win one and drop the other, etc.

Until I am proven wrong, when it comes to GU, I feel the recipe to getting in is to win a ton of games, win the WCC regular season or postseason title outright, and avoid bad losses. If they sprinkle in some big wins, they get a higher seed. It has worked for the past 15 years or so, no matter how bad or good the WCC is. And even if the committee has to split hairs, they will remember that 2OT loss to Florida which may end up being the best game all season.

That all being said, BEAT Creighton. Marcus Foster is going to be a handful, but with the game being at K2 and the students in full force, there's no reason for GU not to win the game, even if it is competitive.

Also....yes injuries with this team are a REAL concern. When Kispert got hurt tonight, my mind IMMEDIATELY turned towards Creighton and Nova. While I think this team is really good, it doesn't have the ability to withstand injuries like some of GU's other teams. The Zags do need all hands on deck to beat really good teams.

DixieZag
11-30-2017, 05:18 AM
This has to be some kind of record :clap: Normally outside pundits and analysts start worrying about Gonzaga's at large status in early January. Here we can't even get to the 1st of December....even after looking like a legit top 15 team in Portland.........

A reminder: the 2003/04 team had just one top 50 RPI win and got a number 2 seed in the west region. And that was back when GU had nowhere near the brand name it has right now. That was the classic instance of a team that just kept winning and avoided bad losses.

Every year people worry about this, and yet it ALWAYS works itself out. There is NO reason to worry right now unless you want your liver to prematurely age. The WCC has had years in this run when its been just as bad as this season. In a few cases it may have been worse. It's constantly used as the reason why Gonzaga is in danger of not making it. And yet it ALWAYS works out in the end.

As I always say, there are so many factors that go into NCAA selection besides big time wins. Another favorite saying of mine: "The big time wins only help your seeding and your sins." Gonzaga's history under Few has shown that. Winning a lot of games and avoiding bad losses matters a great deal to the committee. There have been press people who have participated in the mock selection groups in February who have mentioned just how much winning matters when it comes to team selection. The committee is well aware of the fact that teams who are a part of the .801 club (meaning, teams who win more than .801 of their games, regardless of league affiliation), have a record of doing extremely well in the NCAA tourney.

Since about year 3 of Mark Few's reign as head coach, there have only been two times where they have needed to win the WCC tournament, and both of those teams were not as good as this one. Both of those teams had injuries and suspensions to deal with. That suggests to me that UNLESS Gonzaga develops serious injury issues, or unless they lose to teams they have no business losing to, they will be fine. They may not like the seed they get (this is what I worry about right now if they don't beat someone like Creighton or Villanova), but I see zero reason to panic right now.

Another favorite saying, and I say it every season: "You have to do a lot of stupid things to not make the NCAA tournament." I am 2x more worried about the games at UW and at SDSU than I am worried about the games against Villanova and Creighton. UW and SDSU could very well end up being high risk/low reward games in the end because the road environments will be so tough. You know how nasty that crowd at UW is going to be. The Huskies could come out 5x better than they actually are. It's losses like those that are the killers. And yes, losses to bad WCC teams.

I don't even start thinking about this stuff until the non-league season ends, and even then, it's really more a matter of how many WCC games can GU afford to lose, must they win both the regular season and postseason tourneys, can they win one and drop the other, etc.

Until I am proven wrong, when it comes to GU, I feel the recipe to getting in is to win a ton of games, win the WCC regular season or postseason title outright, and avoid bad losses. If they sprinkle in some big wins, they get a higher seed. It has worked for the past 15 years or so, no matter how bad or good the WCC is. And even if the committee has to split hairs, they will remember that 2OT loss to Florida which may end up being the best game all season.

That all being said, BEAT Creighton. Marcus Foster is going to be a handful, but with the game being at K2 and the students in full force, there's no reason for GU not to win the game, even if it is competitive.

Also....yes injuries with this team are a REAL concern. When Kispert got hurt tonight, my mind IMMEDIATELY turned towards Creighton and Nova. While I think this team is really good, it doesn't have the ability to withstand injuries like some of GU's other teams. The Zags do need all hands on deck to beat really good teams.

Great post.

Especially parts about UW.

Markburn1
11-30-2017, 10:24 AM
Disagree CDC.

As recently as 2015-16 the Zags lost 4 very close OOC games. Texas A&M by 1. Arizona by 5. UCLA by 5. Smu by 9. Their only loss that would remotely resemble a bad loss in conference was to BYU by 1.

I certainly remember the anxiety level the team had about even getting a bid to the NCAA. It was almost imperative that they won the WCC tournament and they were slotted as an 11 seed.

The Zags have Creighton, Villanova, San Diego State and Washington left on their OOC schedule. If they should lose two of the four it would necessitate that they run the table with no bad losses in the WCC in order to get a decent seed. If they lose a couple to someone other than St. Mary's in conference play, look out.

I think they are good enough to avoid that scenario, but the fact remains that they have to take care of business outside of the conference to get a respectable seed.

krozman
11-30-2017, 11:21 AM
If the zags get an 11 this year I feel genuinely sorry for that poor 6 seed that will get bulldozed down.

Markburn1
11-30-2017, 11:36 AM
If the zags get an 11 this year I feel genuinely sorry for that poor 6 seed that will get bulldozed down.

Cool. That doesn't even get you out of the first weekend. If the brackets hold, that means beating a 3 seed just to get to the Sweet Sixteen.

gonzagafan62
11-30-2017, 11:53 AM
I don't know why anyone is 1 or 2 starting this. You guys are soft and can't handle the truth.

Main part I wanna get to here is that we've already got two decent wins Ohio state and Texas. Florida while we looked good does nothing. Washington and SDSU games are bigger than most think. Getting true road game victories is more important than winning at home (although you don't wanna lose at home either) RPI of the 2014-15 squad was 27 or something. 2015-16 was in the 40s I believe. Big difference

Not to worry yet. If we beat Creighton and then beat Washington, SDSU and BYU and SMC on the road we will be more than fine. Or we could just beat Villanova.

Not panic time yet. Still big games to be had.

BULLDOG#1
11-30-2017, 12:09 PM
it is a bit funny having this discussion so early in the year. I agree with the notes regarding UW and SDSU on the road.

Still, from what I've seen in this early season, the wheels would have to come completely off this team for them not to secure a decent seed in the tourney.

I guess maybe this team peaked early and the Gaels will find their footing (would have thought the opposite) and the zags lose the conference and conference tourney to SMC, but that seems pretty far fetched right now. One thing for certain, the Gaels big-dance hopes will rest on taking one or two from GU... very poor scheduling by Bennett, but it does make those games very dangerous for GU.

TexasZag
11-30-2017, 12:32 PM
This has to be some kind of record :clap: Normally outside pundits and analysts start worrying about Gonzaga's at large status in early January. Here we can't even get to the 1st of December....even after looking like a legit top 15 team in Portland.........

A reminder: the 2003/04 team had just one top 50 RPI win and got a number 2 seed in the west region. And that was back when GU had nowhere near the brand name it has right now. That was the classic instance of a team that just kept winning and avoided bad losses.

Every year people worry about this, and yet it ALWAYS works itself out. There is NO reason to worry right now unless you want your liver to prematurely age. The WCC has had years in this run when its been just as bad as this season. In a few cases it may have been worse. It's constantly used as the reason why Gonzaga is in danger of not making it. And yet it ALWAYS works out in the end.

I believe if you pickle cabbage and cucumbers, it slows the aging process. Does that not also work for livers?

Markburn1
11-30-2017, 12:33 PM
Pretty sure a lot of you folks are missing the point. There is no panic. Just pointing out the fact that doing well out of conference is a prerequisite for establishing a protected seed. WCC wins aren't nearly as important....unless they lose one. The title of the thread will help those folks with questions.

Carry on.

gueastcoast
11-30-2017, 01:14 PM
Bottom line: if we take care of business, we'll be fine.

True of just about every other team in D-1 hoping to make the tournament, I might add...not many can take a slew of bad losses (maybe Dook)

zagdontzig
11-30-2017, 02:14 PM
I don't know why anyone is 1 or 2 starting this. You guys are soft and can't handle the truth.

Main part I wanna get to here is that we've already got two decent wins Ohio state and Texas. Florida while we looked good does nothing. Washington and SDSU games are bigger than most think. Getting true road game victories is more important than winning at home (although you don't wanna lose at home either) RPI of the 2014-15 squad was 27 or something. 2015-16 was in the 40s I believe. Big difference

Not to worry yet. If we beat Creighton and then beat Washington, SDSU and BYU and SMC on the road we will be more than fine. Or we could just beat Villanova.

Not panic time yet. Still big games to be had.

I agree with all of this except that Ohio State is look increasingly like a meaningless win, and I think the UW game will be similar, which makes it scary if there's nothing to gain and everything to lose. I think we need to win out to get anything above a 4 seed.

cjm720
11-30-2017, 02:27 PM
St. Mary's, even with their recent stumbles, are favored to win every remaining game on their schedule except the two Gonzaga games. According to TeamRankings their odds of winning their toughest remaining games are 63% against BYU on the road and 76.6% against San Diego in the Slim Gym. The rest of their schedule shows odds of winning at 80% or better. This points out two things. First, the second best team in the WCC can't be bothered to challenge themselves out of conference and secondly, the WCC has nobody that can challenge the Gaels, let alone the Zags except when they play each other.


https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/st-marys-gaels/projections

What this means for Gonzaga is that they can't afford much more than one more loss OOC and almost have to sweep the WCC to get a protected seed. Very frustrating.

If we lose to Creighton and Nova and run the table in conference I could see us getting a protected seed. We are fortunate to now get the benefit of doubt-to a degree, regardless of conference-that if we don’t lose in conference We can still rise the rankings as teams from other conferences and ranked higher beat each other up.