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View Full Version : Pre-season BPI is out with some surprises



SLOZag
07-27-2017, 10:48 AM
Gonzaga finished last season ranked #1 in the BPI. At the start of this season it is ranked ... #60.

Wichita State is ranked #1, Arizona is ranked #5, and Oregon is ranked #49.

St. Mary's is ranked #16.

http://www.espn.com.au/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/20163677/surprise-experienced-wichita-state-shockers-top-summer-bpi-update

former1dog
07-27-2017, 10:51 AM
Isn't any statistical based ranking useless at this point in the "season"?

gonzagafan62
07-27-2017, 11:13 AM
Gonzaga finished last season ranked #1 in the BPI. At the start of this season it is ranked ... #60.

Wichita State is ranked #1, Arizona is ranked #5, and Oregon is ranked #49.

St. Mary's is ranked #16.

http://www.espn.com.au/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/20163677/surprise-experienced-wichita-state-shockers-top-summer-bpi-update

Saint Mary's might be a top 15 team but they aren't better than Gonzaga .... no chance

Reborn
07-27-2017, 11:27 AM
I love this analysis. Gonzaga will be underdogs for most of our OOC games. We'll also be underdogs against St Mary's, which I love. This could be the funnest season of them all. '15 was a lot of fun too. Maybe it will be more like '15 than last year's team.

MDABE80
07-27-2017, 02:03 PM
It's the same rationale as in 1015 - 2016. We lost Bell and Pangos and were downgraded. With some luck we made it back. With losses of the 4 kids, they just don't think we can replace them with adequate talent. Maybe so. Maybe not too. I don't quite get their logic on UNC vs GU 7 months later. Loose logic IMO.

maynard g krebs
07-27-2017, 04:31 PM
Looks pretty nonsensical.

Once and Future Zag
07-27-2017, 06:04 PM
Saint Mary's might be a top 15 team but they aren't better than Gonzaga .... no chance

Maybe they're better. So be it.

Regardless, we still have the pride of being who we are, and doing it our way.

btzag
07-27-2017, 06:41 PM
Dig into the formula behind the BPI and tell me if it seems accurate or not.

soccerdud
07-27-2017, 08:28 PM
i wouldn't read too much into early bpi. kinda like early kenpom rankings, they do the best they can with not nearly enough info, and they'd admit that. the single biggest factor is: "who/what do you have returning?". with all of our turnover, the question then becomes how do you project a bunch of players who have barely played (or have yet to play) NCAA basketball?

if all you knew about rui was that he averaged like 2 ppg, and all you knew about kispert, norvell, larsen, and wade was that they were barely top-100 recruits, would you have an accurate handle on this team? cause that's all the info the analytics have. we lost a lot... probably our 3 best players (tho jwiii showed flashes where he was the best player on the court). a "just the basic facts" analysis of who we have replacing them would seem to indicate the sort of ranking we received. we have lots of reasons for optimism, but the formula doesn't know that.

honestly, i'd guess that the biggest factor in us being ranked even this high is that they take into account few's previous results.

publishing stuff like that at all at this point is 100% because they know it will get read and talked about, and 0% because it's likely to approximate reality.

ETA: i have never really understood why people get excited/upset about things like this. quantitative predictive analytics are almost mechanical processes. numbers and formulas. feed data in, get results. but, as always with stuff like this: "garbage in, garbage out." with a significant amount of info, they can do a great job. with basically none? they are good for making people on message boards feel (unjustifiably) annoyed or pleased, lasting only until actual competition starts. that's it.

having said that (and in the spirit of '62s post, tho not an endorsement of it)-- it's almost certain that SMC's actual quality (if not necessarily relative ranking) is closer to where they will be than ours is, simply because they return way more and thus the model(s) have better data on them.

sittingon50
07-28-2017, 06:50 AM
Well stated start to finish, dud.

gonzagafan62
07-28-2017, 07:51 AM
Maybe they're better. So be it.

Regardless, we still have the pride of being who we are, and doing it our way.

True dat. I'm just excited to defend the throne yet again, because even though they did beat us 2 times in 2015 (we still tied conference and won tourney) I still feel like we've been better since 2012, and I wanna see it again. It'll be fun that's for sure

adoptedzag
07-28-2017, 02:22 PM
Holey moley, they don't even know. I can't wait to blow some teams out.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/20163677/surprise-experienced-wichita-state-shockers-top-summer-bpi-update

Zag-related portion:


No longer on top

The two teams in last season's title game have their work cut out for them to get back to where they were. North Carolina ranks 26th in this initial version of BPI after finishing last season third in the metric and winning the national title. Gonzaga, which lost to UNC 71-65 in the national championship game, is 60th.

Both teams are expected to turn over roughly half their minutes from last season. But Gonzaga, which finished first in BPI at the end of last season (surely a comforting consolation after losing the championship!), dropped farther because of a couple of factors. First, BPI believes the players the Bulldogs are returning aren't as good as those the Tar Heels are bringing back, especially on offense. Second, the combination of quality and quantity of UNC's 2017 recruiting class far outpaces Gonzaga's. And finally, Roy Williams' teams historically have played better basketball on both ends of the court than Mark Few's.

TexasZagFan
07-28-2017, 03:14 PM
I love this analysis. Gonzaga will be underdogs for most of our OOC games. We'll also be underdogs against St Mary's, which I love. This could be the funnest season of them all. '15 was a lot of fun too. Maybe it will be more like '15 than last year's team.

No, we no longer can sneak up on other programs. However, I see this team as perhaps as more versatile as any Zag team ever. It's going to be a fun year.

Reborn
07-28-2017, 03:51 PM
No, we no longer can sneak up on other programs. However, I see this team as perhaps as more versatile as any Zag team ever. It's going to be a fun year.

I'm half joking in my statement; kind of making fun of the article and ranking. Afterall we are ranked 69th......."right" (said sarcastically).

cjm720
07-28-2017, 04:34 PM
Back to back Final Fours...IF we have a guard step up and really elevate their game. I'm guessing Perks or Norvell but our depth is better than ever.
I also think Larsen will be crucial. If he can play all year and be out only true center-and live up to pre knee expectations and play, we will be impossible to beat. 3 loss season if those happen IMO.