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View Full Version : How many minutes and ppg will the top 8-10 players get next year



Reborn
07-12-2017, 08:51 PM
There has been some posting going on On the Fiba thread, and It's interesting to see what people think. I want to talk about this but not on another thread. That thread is quite lengthy any way, and is now going way off topic.

To start with I have to figure out how many players will get the most minutes. IMO the history of Coach Few is that he likes to play 7 or 8 players in most years. I know that this is an issue that many fans have different feelings with: But I'm going with my gut feelings that Few will stay true to form and by mid-season he'll be playing 8 players. Perkins averaged 29 min per game last year so I'm sure he will get around 30 min a game again next year. 2. Melson averaged 24 min a game last season and should average 28 next year which is what Mathews averaged last year. 3. I've got 24 min for Norvell. 4. JW3 averaged 24 min per game last year and I think he'll average 28 next year. 5. Tillie will get Karnowski's 23 minutes per game last year. 6. Rui Hatchimura will be the first man off the bench and will get Melson's 24 min per game last year. 7. Larson will pick up the 17 min per game that Collins had last year. 8. Wade 16 min and 9. Kispert 12.
I have Ayayi red-shirting.


The following statistics are for the first half of the season: They will change imo, for the second half, and certainly for the two tournaments, WCC Tournament and the NCAA Tournament.

Minutes per game:

Perkins 30
Melson 28
JW3 28
Norvell 24
Tillie 23

Hachimura 24
Larson 17
Wade 16
Kispert 12

Points Per Game

JW3 13
Melson 10
Norvell 11
Perkins 10
Tillie 8

Hachimura 10
Larson 9
Wade 7
Kispert 5

The Zags will only lose two players for the 2018-19 season: Melson and JW3. Ayayi will certainly be the player to replace Melson. So as you see we will not need a lot of players for the '18-'19 season. One or two bigs.

MDABE80
07-12-2017, 09:03 PM
Decent Reborn.

hooter73
07-12-2017, 09:25 PM
After experiencing what efficient players like Collins could do in what I would consider limited minutes, I don't give much thought to it. Rui is going to get ten + points per game and if he doesn't defend, won't play but ten minutes per game.

Worthington
07-12-2017, 09:41 PM
My best crack at it.

Minutes per game

Perkins - 30
Melson - 28
Norvell - 25
Tillie - 27
JW3 - 32

Hachimura - 17
Larsen - 14
Wade - 13
Kispert - 10
Jones - 4

Ayayi red-shirts.

Points Per Game

Perkins - 11
Melson - 9
Norvell - 12
Tillie - 10
JW3 - 14

Hachimura - 9
Larsen - 6
Wade - 5
Kispert - 3
Jones - 1

JIMMYMACINCDA
07-12-2017, 09:43 PM
I like the minutes but not sure about this team averaging 83 ppg.

Reborn
07-12-2017, 09:43 PM
I guess the main question that I have is who is going to be our go-to guy next year? It was definitely NWG, and or PK, and by the end of the season is what NWG. What is needed is someone who can create his own shot consistently and score. I like our two seniors, Melson and JW3 to be our team leaders, along with Josh Perkinds who should be a senior. We will get great leadership from them. But i believe that by the end of the year it will be either Rui or Norvell who will be our go to players

Reborn
07-12-2017, 09:49 PM
I like the minutes but not sure about this team averaging 83 ppg.

IMO that's the crazy good thing about this team. We do have guys who can score. One problem that does stick out is that we do have a lot of young guns and whether they can come in and score as freshmen we will see: Wade, Norvell, Kispert, and really Rui too. He only averaged 2.5 ppg last year and didn't play much, The good news is that we didn't need these guys to score last year because we had some damn good scorers last year. But those guys have moved on and that will bring out the best in next year's players.

cjm720
07-12-2017, 10:05 PM
Minutes per game:

Perkins 30
Melson 28
JW3 28
Norvell 32
Tillie 24

Hachimura 18
Larson 20
Wade 12
Kispert 12

Points Per Game

JW3 13
Melson 10
Norvell 14
Perkins 10
Tillie 13

Hachimura 8
Larson 9
Wade 5
Kispert 4

tyra
07-13-2017, 02:35 AM
Everyone is in the same ballpark here on minutes and scoring (more or less). My question is: who among the new players steps us DEFENSIVELY? That we are loaded with scoring options is not in question (notice how balanced the projections are in that regard). But who is going to join Silas in shut down defense? Whomever does, I predict, will earn more minutes.

thebigsmoove
07-13-2017, 04:43 AM
Ill Repost what i said in the other thread:

"JP will likely get 32 a game, Silas 28, Zach 20, JWIII 32, Tillie 25, Larsen 18, Rui 12, Kispert 10, Wade 10, Ayayi 8, Jeremy Jones 5...these numbers are based on usage from positions last year and the typical gradual growth of minutes from year to year for most players. My best guess."

I think most people are overestimating Rui's production. Larsen will be first off the bench IMO.

As far as Points per game?

Maybe JP at 13, JWIII 12, Tillie at 10, Silas at 9, Zach at 7, Larsen at 7, Rui 5, Kispert 5, Wade 4, Ayayi 3, Jones 2.

Kinda a crapshoot.

amaronizag
07-13-2017, 08:01 AM
4 and 5 position = 80 minutes divided among 4 players. J3 and Tillie start at beginning of season with Larsen 1st off the bench. By game 6, Larsen starts, Tillie first off the bench.
J3 -------25
Larsen---25
Tillie-----22
Rui--------8

Positions 1-3 = 120 minutes divided among 6 players
JP-------28.......starts
Melson--22......starts
ZN------28.......starts
CK------18
JW------12
Ayayi---12

jpwils
07-13-2017, 08:10 AM
Ill Repost what i said in the other thread:

"JP will likely get 32 a game, Silas 28, Zach 20, JWIII 32, Tillie 25, Larsen 18, Rui 12, Kispert 10, Wade 10, Ayayi 8, Jeremy Jones 5...these numbers are based on usage from positions last year and the typical gradual growth of minutes from year to year for most players. My best guess."

I think most people are overestimating Rui's production. Larsen will be first off the bench IMO.

As far as Points per game?

Maybe JP at 13, JWIII 12, Tillie at 10, Silas at 9, Zach at 7, Larsen at 7, Rui 5, Kispert 5, Wade 4, Ayayi 3, Jones 2.

Kinda a crapshoot.

I think this may hold up for a couple games. However, Wade is way too good for reduced minutes over the long haul.

If Perkins does not overcome the turnovers, Wade will step in and provide cnsistency.

In games where a true center is needed, Larsen will play alot more. Not so sure Rui gets major minutes. Also-Kispert is no slouch

and may steal/earn minutes over time somehow.

willandi
07-13-2017, 08:34 AM
I think this may hold up for a couple games. However, Wade is way too good for reduced minutes over the long haul.

If Perkins does not overcome the turnovers, Wade will step in and provide cnsistency.

In games where a true center is needed, Larsen will play alot more. Not so sure Rui gets major minutes. Also-Kispert is no slouch

and may steal/earn minutes over time somehow.


Interesting that so many worry about JP's turnovers when NWG statistically had more.

Williams-Goss, Nigel 38 82 2.2
Perkins, Josh....... 38 75 2.0

kitzbuel
07-13-2017, 08:42 AM
Interesting that so many worry about JP's turnovers when NWG statistically had more.

Williams-Goss, Nigel 38 82 2.2
Perkins, Josh....... 38 75 2.0
Unfortunately it is turnovers 74 and 75 that many use as their frame of reference.

Sent from my XT1575 using Tapatalk

Reborn
07-13-2017, 08:52 AM
Everyone is in the same ballpark here on minutes and scoring (more or less). My question is: who among the new players steps us DEFENSIVELY? That we are loaded with scoring options is not in question (notice how balanced the projections are in that regard). But who is going to join Silas in shut down defense? Whomever does, I predict, will earn more minutes.

That's a good question. It made me do some research on the new guys. And I LIKED what I saw. The new Zags have really good size. Zach Norvell is 6'5", 205. Kispert is 6'7", 210. He looks like a tight end who is very athletic. One of Ayayi's greatest strengths is his defense and rebounding. I guess he loves to mix it up. He is 6'4" but just weights 160. Larsen is 6'10" and 235. The video I watched on him shows that he will be good on D. Has great foot work and plays with high intensity on D. GU coaches have finally created the kind of defense that they need to advance deep into the NCAA Tournament. Five players return who played last year and will have a solid foundation on defense. Norvell and Larsen did not play but were on the team and should have a solid understanding of the defensive intensity that is needed.

Worthington
07-13-2017, 09:27 AM
Ill Repost what i said in the other thread:

"JP will likely get 32 a game, Silas 28, Zach 20, JWIII 32, Tillie 25, Larsen 18, Rui 12, Kispert 10, Wade 10, Ayayi 8, Jeremy Jones 5...these numbers are based on usage from positions last year and the typical gradual growth of minutes from year to year for most players. My best guess."

I think most people are overestimating Rui's production. Larsen will be first off the bench IMO.

As far as Points per game?

Maybe JP at 13, JWIII 12, Tillie at 10, Silas at 9, Zach at 7, Larsen at 7, Rui 5, Kispert 5, Wade 4, Ayayi 3, Jones 2.

Kinda a crapshoot.

Curious as to why you think people are overestimating Rui, but believe Larsen will be our best bench player? I want to believe Larsen can step into a role like that, but he's coming off multiple major injuries, hasn't played competitively in a few years now, and there's little to no footage to evaluate him on. While Rui definitely has some stuff to work on, just from what we know I feel like he's a safer bet to have a more significant role next season. I'm just wondering where all this confidence in Larsen is coming from?

bartruff1
07-13-2017, 09:54 AM
Well, if he is healthy, Larsen's U-16 FIBA and Basketball Without Boarders performances were very impressive .....

cjm720
07-13-2017, 09:57 AM
Curious as to why you think people are overestimating Rui, but believe Larsen will be our best bench player? I want to believe Larsen can step into a role like that, but he's coming off multiple major injuries, hasn't played competitively in a few years now, and there's little to no footage to evaluate him on. While Rui definitely has some stuff to work on, just from what we know I feel like he's a safer bet to have a more significant role next season. I'm just wondering where all this confidence in Larsen is coming from?

My take is its because he's are only true center and he reportedly outperformed Tillie in the preseason last year.

I think we are going to be pleasantly surprised by all our guys this year!

thebigsmoove
07-13-2017, 10:00 AM
Curious as to why you think people are overestimating Rui, but believe Larsen will be our best bench player? I want to believe Larsen can step into a role like that, but he's coming off multiple major injuries, hasn't played competitively in a few years now, and there's little to no footage to evaluate him on. While Rui definitely has some stuff to work on, just from what we know I feel like he's a safer bet to have a more significant role next season. I'm just wondering where all this confidence in Larsen is coming from?

The fact that hes the only true center we have on the roster. We need someone to log major minutes in the paint. And there is plenty of tape out there on Larsen, have you looked?

GoZags
07-13-2017, 10:01 AM
Everyone is in the same ballpark here on minutes and scoring (more or less). My question is: who among the new players steps us DEFENSIVELY? That we are loaded with scoring options is not in question (notice how balanced the projections are in that regard). But who is going to join Silas in shut down defense? Whomever does, I predict, will earn more minutes.

That's why I believe a healthy Jeremy Jones Will a) receive a scholarship and b) average 6+ minutes a night next season.

Worthington
07-13-2017, 10:05 AM
The fact that hes the only true center we have on the roster. We need someone to log major minutes in the paint. And there is plenty of tape out there on Larsen, have you looked?

Please link some, I've looked extensively and could not find any footage beyond snippets (most from about 2013). Have not found a single clip from his FIBA MVP tournament, if you can provide anything that would be awesome. And you're right about his role, I'm just skeptical given all the injuries and that he hasn't really been able to play in games for a couple years now. My prediction did have him playing 14 minutes a game so I'm not far behind you though.

Reborn
07-13-2017, 10:21 AM
Looking at next year's team in ways it looks quite a bit like last years team. There were lots of questions at this time of year for last years team. They had lost two players who were drafted into the NBA: Wiltjer and Sabonis. And had lost 4 very good players. AT this point last year not many, or maybe no one at all, thought that the team could reach the NCAA Championship game. I also think many fans felt that there was a lot of talent, but wondered how they'd jell. There were five players last year who averaged in double figures, most of them around the 10-12 point range. The top scorer was NWG who averaged 15. We had a dang good bench last year who all could contribute to the team in a very positive way. Two of the players on the bench certainly could have been starters (Collins and Melson). I think that the same thing could be said about our bench players this year (whoever they may be). I think that all of them could be starters: Wade, Hachimura, Larsen, Kispert. Last years team averaged 83 points a game (very good). I think next year's team can also do that. Maybe a little less, like 81. Can they play D? I think they will prove that they can.

Go Zags!!!

thebigsmoove
07-13-2017, 11:15 AM
Please link some, I've looked extensively and could not find any footage beyond snippets (most from about 2013). Have not found a single clip from his FIBA MVP tournament, if you can provide anything that would be awesome. And you're right about his role, I'm just skeptical given all the injuries and that he hasn't really been able to play in games for a couple years now. My prediction did have him playing 14 minutes a game so I'm not far behind you though.

Hes #14 in all of these
U16 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=05xCsds7VDU&t=149s)

Averaged 16.7 points, 6.7 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.7 blocks, 1 steal, and 60.6% from the field in this tourney
U18 Vaerlose BBK during Adidas NGT in Belgrade (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GNotjmN5Nog)

I cant find video for the Denmark U16 team from 2013 that won gold at the euro championships in division B, but here are the box scores:

Denmark vs Netherlands (https://www.fiba.com/pages/eng/fa/game/p/gid/4/grid/C/rid/9474/sid/9442/_/2013_U16_European_Championship_Men/statistic.html)
Denmark vs Israel (https://www.fiba.com/pages/eng/fa/game/p/gid/2/grid/C/rid/9474/sid/9442/_/2013_U16_European_Championship_Men/statistic.html)
Denmark vs Bosnia (https://www.fiba.com/pages/eng/fa/game/p/gid/5/grid/C/rid/9474/sid/9442/_/2013_U16_European_Championship_Men/statistic.html)
Denmark vs Slovak (https://www.fiba.com/pages/eng/fa/game/p/gid/9/grid/C/rid/9474/sid/9442/_/2013_U16_European_Championship_Men/statistic.html)
Denmark vs Czech Rep (https://www.fiba.com/pages/eng/fa/game/p/gid/2/grid/F/rid/9561/sid/9442/_/2013_U16_European_Championship_Men/statistic.html)
Denmark vs Georgia (https://www.fiba.com/pages/eng/fa/game/p/gid/4/grid/F/rid/9561/sid/9442/_/2013_U16_European_Championship_Men/statistic.html)
Denmark vs Finland (https://www.fiba.com/pages/eng/fa/game/p/gid/A/grid/77/rid/9564/sid/9442/_/2013_U16_European_Championship_Men/statistic.html)
Denmark vs Bosnia for Gold (https://www.fiba.com/pages/eng/fa/game/p/gid/A/grid/89/rid/9575/sid/9442/_/2013_U16_European_Championship_Men/statistic.html)

Here are his stats from the U16 in 2012 as well:
U16 2012 (https://www.fiba.com/pages/eng/fa/player/p/pid/99865/pid2//sid/8815/tid/271/tid2//_/2012_U16_European_Championship_Men_DIVISION_B/index.html)

Worthington
07-13-2017, 11:21 AM
Hes #14 in all of these
U16 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=05xCsds7VDU&t=149s)

Averaged 16.7 points, 6.7 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.7 blocks, 1 steal, and 60.6% from the field in this tourney
U18 Vaerlose BBK during Adidas NGT in Belgrade (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GNotjmN5Nog)

I cant find video for the Denmark U16 team from 2013 that won gold at the euro championships in division B, but here are the box scores:

Denmark vs Netherlands (https://www.fiba.com/pages/eng/fa/game/p/gid/4/grid/C/rid/9474/sid/9442/_/2013_U16_European_Championship_Men/statistic.html)
Denmark vs Israel (https://www.fiba.com/pages/eng/fa/game/p/gid/2/grid/C/rid/9474/sid/9442/_/2013_U16_European_Championship_Men/statistic.html)
Denmark vs Bosnia (https://www.fiba.com/pages/eng/fa/game/p/gid/5/grid/C/rid/9474/sid/9442/_/2013_U16_European_Championship_Men/statistic.html)
Denmark vs Slovak (https://www.fiba.com/pages/eng/fa/game/p/gid/9/grid/C/rid/9474/sid/9442/_/2013_U16_European_Championship_Men/statistic.html)
Denmark vs Czech Rep (https://www.fiba.com/pages/eng/fa/game/p/gid/2/grid/F/rid/9561/sid/9442/_/2013_U16_European_Championship_Men/statistic.html)
Denmark vs Georgia (https://www.fiba.com/pages/eng/fa/game/p/gid/4/grid/F/rid/9561/sid/9442/_/2013_U16_European_Championship_Men/statistic.html)
Denmark vs Finland (https://www.fiba.com/pages/eng/fa/game/p/gid/A/grid/77/rid/9564/sid/9442/_/2013_U16_European_Championship_Men/statistic.html)
Denmark vs Bosnia for Gold (https://www.fiba.com/pages/eng/fa/game/p/gid/A/grid/89/rid/9575/sid/9442/_/2013_U16_European_Championship_Men/statistic.html)

Here are his stats from the U16 in 2012 as well:
U16 2012 (https://www.fiba.com/pages/eng/fa/player/p/pid/99865/pid2//sid/8815/tid/271/tid2//_/2012_U16_European_Championship_Men_DIVISION_B/index.html)

Ah thank you for the U18 video, I hadn't seen that one yet! :)

Mr Vulture
07-13-2017, 11:23 AM
I don't know exactly how it will all break down but I am willing to bet that Ayayi isn't redshirting and will be in rotation this year. I will just say this is what I see for the depth chart, yes I know y'all will disagree on Rui but I believe I'm accurate. There will be some alternate roles as always but this is what I see as the primary roles.

PG - Perkins, Wade, Ayayi
SG - Melson, Wade, Ayayi
Wing - Norvell, Kispert, Rui/Jones
4 Man - JWIII, Rui
Center - Tillie, Larsen

thebigsmoove
07-13-2017, 11:30 AM
Ah thank you for the U18 video, I hadn't seen that one yet! :)

No problem sir, wish i could find the U16 video from 2013. He dominated during that tourney.

MDABE80
07-13-2017, 12:40 PM
Interesting that so many worry about JP's turnovers when NWG statistically had more.

Williams-Goss, Nigel 38 82 2.2
Perkins, Josh....... 38 75 2.0

Often times things like TO's are overlooked when Nigel scored 16.8 vs Josh with 8.1 ppg. Nigel grabbed 6 rebounds per game vs 2 rpg with Josh.. A much busier hands on kid was Nigel.
But the most telling thought is that Nigel had the ball in his hands directing offense and passing more as he was the PG 80% of the time. Therefore it's expected that he would have a lot more TO's..... but he didn't. On the other hand...........;) But the bias against Nigel or pro Josh ( as it's used here) is built in.

Just the data. No arguments please.

amaronizag
07-13-2017, 12:53 PM
I don't understand why Norvel isn't getting more love here. He could easily chip in 18 points a game. I expect him to be the high scorer followed by J3.

thebigsmoove
07-13-2017, 01:07 PM
I don't understand why Norvel isn't getting more love here. He could easily chip in 18 points a game. I expect him to be the high scorer followed by J3.

A lot of that is based on the fact that we havent seen him play yet. Nothing would suggest he would impact the D1 game on that level right off the bat.

23dpg
07-13-2017, 01:39 PM
I like the minutes but not sure about this team averaging 83 ppg.

I think it can happen. For example. If Wade plays 30 minutes one game and then injures his toe and sits out the next game, while Rui sits out the first game due to jetlag (having just come back from Japan) but then plays 30 minutes in the second game. Do both players average 30 or 15 minutes? Honest question, no idea.

Reborn
07-13-2017, 02:10 PM
I don't understand why Norvel isn't getting more love here. He could easily chip in 18 points a game. I expect him to be the high scorer followed by J3.

I know how you feel. He could be that good. I have him as the second leading scorer behind JW3. As was said we have not yet seen him play in an NCAA D-1 game yet. JW3 only averaged 10+ last year and he had some great games. Averaging 11 ppg is pretty good actually. We must also remember he's only going to be a freshman, and also that he's playing with other really good players.

maynard g krebs
07-13-2017, 02:11 PM
I am surprised by the generally low expectations for Kispert. He scored 39 in the final of Jamal Crawford's Seattle Pro-Am league the summer after his junior yr of hs. Crawford's team edged Kispert's team at the buzzer 114-112 or something like that; I think Crawford scored around 35.

maynard g krebs
07-13-2017, 02:16 PM
If Perkins does not overcome the turnovers, Wade will step in and provide cnsistency.


The last 27 games of his rs fr year, as primary pg JP had an a/to ratio of 2.6/1, averaging less than 2 t o per game.

It was only in the first 9 games of that season that his t o number and a/to ratio was bad.

Perception bias.

Reborn
07-13-2017, 02:28 PM
I am surprised by the generally low expectations for Kispert. He scored 39 in the final of Jamal Crawford's Seattle Pro-Am league the summer after his junior yr of hs. Crawford's team edged Kispert's team at the buzzer 114-112 or something like that; I think Crawford scored around 35.

I know how you feel. I gave him the same minutes and just a little more points than Tillie had last year. If he plays that well he will have had a very good freshman year. But I also think it's possible for him to be a starter or first guard off the bench like Melson last year and get Melson's minutes last year, 23 a game. I know that the practices next year in October and November are going to be wars. It will good to see who survives those battles. And once again, it may boil down to who can play team defense the Gonzaga Way.

cggonzaga
07-13-2017, 04:52 PM
I like the minutes but not sure about this team averaging 83 ppg.

Don't confuse adding player's averages with team's ppg. Players don't score the same amount of points every game.

DixieZag
07-13-2017, 05:23 PM
Maybe the biggest surprise this year will be JWIII, no longer in a supporting role, steps up in both leadership, aggression, and take his game to a completely new level?

willandi
07-13-2017, 05:34 PM
Top 8 all play 40 min per game and score 20 each. 160 ppg blows every other team out of their jocks!

Coach Crazy
07-13-2017, 06:15 PM
I don't understand why Norvel isn't getting more love here. He could easily chip in 18 points a game. I expect him to be the high scorer followed by J3.

It's because there aren't a lot of people on this board who practice evaluating talent at a level where they truly recognized that.

If Norvell had been able to play last year, we take the whole thing.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Coach Crazy
07-13-2017, 06:18 PM
I don't know exactly how it will all break down but I am willing to bet that Ayayi isn't redshirting and will be in rotation this year. I will just say this is what I see for the depth chart, yes I know y'all will disagree on Rui but I believe I'm accurate. There will be some alternate roles as always but this is what I see as the primary roles.

PG - Perkins, Wade, Ayayi
SG - Melson, Wade, Ayayi
Wing - Norvell, Kispert, Rui/Jones
4 Man - JWIII, Rui
Center - Tillie, Larsen

Ayayi's IQ, awareness, and passing are advanced for his age. And he's got size and length that you can't teach.

I'm not ready to say that Rui will play the 4, but I respect that you are willing to put that out there and stand behind it.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

willandi
07-13-2017, 06:51 PM
Ayayi's IQ, awareness, and passing are advanced for his age. And he's got size and length that you can't teach.

I'm not ready to say that Rui will play the 4, but I respect that you are willing to put that out there and stand behind it.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Rui played the 5 in the U19. We have had Pendo and many others smaller than Rui play the 4. It may be the perfect storm to allow him to be a hybrid 3/4 and show all that he can do. He will be hard to stop offensively, and his defense may be better suited to stopping a 4 than a 3.

Reborn
07-14-2017, 07:00 AM
I'm thinking a lot about Silas Melson today, and I'm feeling that Silas could make another big jump in scoring next year. He had a big jump in his play last year and I'm hoping he'll follow that with a really good senior season. He has all the skills and moves and athleticism to be a premier scorer this coming season. Last year he showed pretty good outside shooting, as well as being able to get to the rim. He missed an awful lot of those close in shots last year, and if he can get those to fall this year he'll be a very good scorer. He surprised me last year by his improved consistency from beyond the 3 pt line. I hope that this upcoming season that he'll surprise me again and average around 13 points a game. If he can do that, the Zags will be pretty solid on offense next year.

thebigsmoove
07-14-2017, 07:35 AM
Rui played the 5 in the U19. We have had Pendo and many others smaller than Rui play the 4. It may be the perfect storm to allow him to be a hybrid 3/4 and show all that he can do. He will be hard to stop offensively, and his defense may be better suited to stopping a 4 than a 3.

Did he really play the 5 though? looked like a whole lot of ball handling for someone who was supposedly playing a post position.

webspinnre
07-14-2017, 08:45 AM
Did he really play the 5 though? looked like a whole lot of ball handling for someone who was supposedly playing a post position.

As far-and-away the best player on the team, he was essentially the "point-center".

thebigsmoove
07-14-2017, 08:55 AM
As far-and-away the best player on the team, he was essentially the "point-center".

Thats an interesting position, lol

maynard g krebs
07-14-2017, 11:10 AM
I don't understand why Norvel isn't getting more love here. He could easily chip in 18 points a game. I expect him to be the high scorer followed by J3.

I looked it up out of curiosity. Exactly 100 players in D1 averaged 18 or better per game per NCAA.com. 23 of those were from power conferences, and 10 more (arbitrarily by my estimation) came from fairly strong non- power 5 teams (Mika for ex.).

Nigel averaged 16.something and was pretty ball dominant and took a lot of shots, more than anyone will on next year's team imo.

I don't see the lack of "love" for Zach- looks to me like he gets a lot, and I totally agree- but I doubt anyone on next year's team avgs more than 13-14 ppg. Lots of scorers and so much balance. Could be 7 or 8 guys that have a 20 point game at some point imo. And Zach is such a willing and capable passer. On a team w/ that many guys who can shoot, I don't see him as a fr taking the number of 1 on1 type shots that guys who score that much typically take.

thebigsmoove
07-14-2017, 11:12 AM
I looked it up out of curiosity. Exactly 100 players in D1 averaged 18 or better per game per NCAA.com. 23 of those were from power conferences, and 10 more (arbitrarily by my estimation) came from fairly strong non- power 5 teams (Mika for ex.).

Nigel averaged 16.something and was pretty ball dominant and took a lot of shots, more than anyone will on next year's team imo.

I don't see the lack of "love" for Zach- looks to me like he gets a lot, and I totally agree- but I doubt anyone on next year's team avgs more than 13-14 ppg. Lots of scorers and so much balance. Could be 7 or 8 guys that have a 20 point game at some point imo. And Zach is such a willing and capable passer. On a team w/ that many guys who can shoot, I don't see him as a fr taking the number of 1 on1 type shots that guys who score that much typically take.

Exactly. Well said.

Bogozags
07-14-2017, 11:42 AM
Everyone is in the same ballpark here on minutes and scoring (more or less). My question is: who among the new players steps us DEFENSIVELY? That we are loaded with scoring options is not in question (notice how balanced the projections are in that regard). But who is going to join Silas in shut down defense? Whomever does, I predict, will earn more minutes.

I think Norvell and JW3 along with Silas are going to be strong on both sides of the court.

Kispert IMO is going to be the surprise player on this team...I remember watching a video with him playing in a semi-pro tournament in Seattle and he looked at home playing with them...I believe if he learns early on to defend then he will be a really key piece to GU's success this season...

katman50
07-14-2017, 07:53 PM
I think Kispert, as long as his ankle isn't bothering him, will be the surprise on the team. Much like Adam's freshman year. Kispert will be so productive, that it will be hard for Few to keep him off the floor. Am really excited about Kispert. The next great Zag!

DixieZag
07-15-2017, 07:41 AM
Top 8 all play 40 min per game and score 20 each. 160 ppg blows every other team out of their jocks!

Sounds like you're ready for my One BOLD Prediction thread coming at its annual time, just a little over six weeks away!

NotoriousZ
07-17-2017, 09:21 AM
I think Kispert, as long as his ankle isn't bothering him, will be the surprise on the team. Much like Adam's freshman year. Kispert will be so productive, that it will be hard for Few to keep him off the floor. Am really excited about Kispert. The next great Zag!

+1 Can't wait to see this guy in a Zags uniform.

MileHigh
07-18-2017, 05:28 AM
Just the data. No arguments please.

Your statement that NWG was playing the pg spot "80% of the time" is not supported by the data. As you can probably guess, Gonzagas video guys do a very detailed breakdown of every possession of every season. They broke down the number of possessions that each guard was the "pg" (brought ball up court and initiated the half court offense) and the result was that JP and NWG were almost dead even in # of possessions where each played the point, with JP having slightly more.
Now if your point was that NWG handled the ball more than Josh, that is definitely supported by the data. JP rarely did anything off the dribble in the half court and was mainly throwing entry passes to the post or spotting up for catch and shoot threes, while NWG did almost all of his scoring and creating off the dribble.

Reborn
07-18-2017, 06:53 AM
There has been some posting going on On the Fiba thread, and It's interesting to see what people think. I want to talk about this but not on another thread. That thread is quite lengthy any way, and is now going way off topic.

To start with I have to figure out how many players will get the most minutes. IMO the history of Coach Few is that he likes to play 7 or 8 players in most years. I know that this is an issue that many fans have different feelings with: But I'm going with my gut feelings that Few will stay true to form and by mid-season he'll be playing 8 players. Perkins averaged 29 min per game last year so I'm sure he will get around 30 min a game again next year. 2. Melson averaged 24 min a game last season and should average 28 next year which is what Mathews averaged last year. 3. I've got 24 min for Norvell. 4. JW3 averaged 24 min per game last year and I think he'll average 28 next year. 5. Tillie will get Karnowski's 23 minutes per game last year. 6. Rui Hatchimura will be the first man off the bench and will get Melson's 24 min per game last year. 7. Larson will pick up the 17 min per game that Collins had last year. 8. Wade 16 min and 9. Kispert 12.
I have Ayayi red-shirting.


The following statistics are for the first half of the season: They will change imo, for the second half, and certainly for the two tournaments, WCC Tournament and the NCAA Tournament.

Minutes per game:

Perkins 30
Melson 28
JW3 28
Norvell 24
Tillie 23

Hachimura 24
Larson 17
Wade 16
Kispert 12

Points Per Game

JW3 13
Melson 10
Norvell 11
Perkins 10
Tillie 8

Hachimura 10
Larson 9
Wade 7
Kispert 5

The Zags will only lose two players for the 2018-19 season: Melson and JW3. Ayayi will certainly be the player to replace Melson. So as you see we will not need a lot of players for the '18-'19 season. One or two bigs.

Of course if Hawkins becomes a Zag everything is going to change. I'm sure he will play at around 20 minutes a game. I am assuming that Hawkins has been offered if he has plans to visit GU. Is that assumption true? Has Few already offered Hawkins?

GoZags
07-18-2017, 06:59 AM
Of course if Hawkins becomes a Zag everything is going to change. I'm sure he will play at around 20 minutes a game. I am assuming that Hawkins has been offered if he has plans to visit GU. Is that assumption true? Has Few already offered Hawkins?

I'd be surprised if Hawkins has been offered. It's my belief that a visit would be a key aspect of Few's vetting and due diligence process.

Hooray4Daye&Gray
07-18-2017, 08:38 AM
Going to be a fascinating next 8 weeks. It seems like we still have 3 swings left before striking out on the additional big everyone wants.

The timing of Hawkins' visit seems to be crucial. If he comes in the next couple of weeks and Few likes him, is he choosing a bird in the hand over a bird in Europe?

GoZags hinted that at least one of the two Euros could be leaning towards "announcing" in August rather than "deciding" in August. If Few knows Pecarski or Samanic is coming, is this part of the conversation with Hawkins?

Or maybe he just doesn't promise playing time to Hawkins. But then does a Euro see the Hawkins commit and shy away from coming in the end?

Seems like a lot of moving parts. Seems like a lot of guys that play a similar position. Seems like we'd be lucky to have any of the three.

...Or maybe one of the Euro targets really is an unknown and isn't a PF after all?