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View Full Version : Withers:J-III---the sky isn't falling after all



sittingon50
05-24-2017, 07:36 PM
http://en.bloguru.com/GloryHounds/299304/jiii-returns-maybe-the-sky-isnt-falling

MTZag03
05-24-2017, 07:56 PM
Good read. I liked how Williams said he wants to be a beast who averages a double-double.

CDC84
05-25-2017, 07:38 AM
I never really felt that Gonzaga's run to the title game would pay off in the form of grad transfers this season...especially after NWG and Collins bolted for the draft. It will probably be more reflected in the next few recruiting classes. Can they snag one or two guys that they normally wouldn't be able to....like 2018 PF Taeshon Cherry??

In some ways I kind of disagree with Withers.....if you're Gonzaga, you have nothing but yourself to blame if you don't take any advantage of the national title run recruiting wise. But it was never going to be an instant thing. We may not see the full impact until the end of the 2020 recruiting cycle.

thebigsmoove
05-25-2017, 07:47 AM
Can they snag one or two guys that they normally wouldn't be able to....like 2018 PF Taeshon Cherry??

You know i really see Cherry as a heavy lean to Arizona, but with all the bigs that have been signing there recently, might not be space for him, maybe that opens that door up further for us? Still gonna be hard to beat out UCLA, USC, or Oregon.

ZagWhoShotLibertyValance
05-25-2017, 08:07 AM
Our tenth guy, tenth, got 288 minutes this year and is expected to be much better. (Jeremy Jones).... Our 9th guy is Rui, who will get a lot of time this year. 8th, 7th and 6th are Kispert, Wade, and probably Tillie, unless he starts. That is an impressive group of bench people.

JWIII was always they key to that group; with him, we have a great front line with athleticism, a great tip off artist; we are going to be great. Not last year great, but we will be better than we were 2 years ago.

Now, think of NWG, Sabonis, and Collins.... All of them who would still be eligible. We would be the favorite for a NC. Instead of being a likely tough out in the second weekend which is what I expect.

We are really good and loaded next year. A shade young. But loaded.

Kiddwell
05-25-2017, 09:18 AM
This upcoming season's newbies are all four-star players:
(1) SG/SF - Norvell (ESPN)
(2) PG - Wade (ESPN)
(3) SF/PF - Kispert (ESPN)
(4) PF/C - Larsen (Kiddwell)
:)
Reason Kiddwell gives Larsen four stars is that somewhere someone said Jacob was considered "the best NBA prospect ever to come outta Denmark" (which maybe isn't saying a whole lot, but it's enough for me). The grass is green, we just don't have a 7-footer next season, which is the first time since who?, Sacre? The Zags have been "footer" spoiled. (Could add Ayayi to that list, but not sure whether he's coming this or next year. If this year, given his hype, the Zags are adding FIVE four-star players. C'mon, besides a handful of elites, who else can say that?)
:)

:]

<the point? sky isn't falling>

titopoet
05-25-2017, 09:35 AM
I think that a title run (and how it happened) will, of course, pay dividends in the long run. It adds to the narrative that has been developing since Kelly Olynyk, namely GU is the place for Player Development.
This will translate into recruiting gold, though the recruiting process is now two and three years long that the payoff is two and three years down the road.

If Few can strike gold again and have both Rui and Larsen step up and play to their promise and adding the returning four from the eight rotation player, this team may be the most surprising of Few's tenure. The quality of the current roster (especially with the players that visit) may also play a role in not having minutes for everyone might scare off some recruits.

Look at what we have coming back. The most experienced tourney backcourt in Zags history. Josh and Meslon have between them played in 3 sweet sixteen games, 2 Elite 8 games, 1 final four and 1 title game.
With JWIII, Larsen, Rui, and Tillie you have a frontcourt that is big, athletic, and talented. We are adding three four-star recruits to the possible rotation. In other words with Few at the helm and with all that experience, skill and talent, this team is going to be very good to great. Final Four is not out of the question.

MDABE80
05-25-2017, 09:41 AM
Nobody said the sky is falling. If it is/was, getting J3 back (when he wasn't expected to leave till 48 hrs ago) likely won't cure the problem.
If it's true that Nigel and Collins were expected to leave all along, the situation worsens insofar as nobody snagged recruits. If both leaving was an "April Surprise", I'm not sure what to say.
I'm not disagreeing with CDC but I surely expected more high end applicants or transfers based on a FF appearance. I did expect more though. Perhaps this upcoming year, recruits will flock to GU. I hope so. I think we'll have a good, not great ,year unless I'm underestimating the value of the new kids. The push to the FF was an addicting run though.

seacatfan
05-25-2017, 10:17 AM
I know I've said this before, but look at the recruiting for George Mason, VCU, Butler and Wichita St. after they made Final 4 runs. It's not magic or fairy dust folks. Had very little impact for any of those schools. I'd say Butler joining the Big East had more of an impact on their recruiting than back to back Championship Game appearances did. Elite recruits waiting until late in the cycle to commit for the following year aren't waiting to see who makes the Final 4, they are waiting to see who bolts for the draft and opens up playing time at blue blood schools, for the most part.

Zagdawg
05-25-2017, 10:32 AM
Recruiting -- hope in the long term the championship appearance will help. You looks at Millers Arizona team full of top 100 talent-- the lack of a final 4 does not seem to be slowing him down.

seacatfan
05-25-2017, 10:41 AM
I didn't mean that as doom and gloom at all. Gonzaga has been doing just fine in recruiting talented high schoolers and attracting impactful transfers prior to the Final 4.

titopoet
05-25-2017, 11:21 AM
I know I've said this before, but look at the recruiting for George Mason, VCU, Butler and Wichita St. after they made Final 4 runs. It's not magic or fairy dust folks. Had very little impact for any of those schools. I'd say Butler joining the Big East had more of an impact on their recruiting than back to back Championship Game appearances did. Elite recruits waiting until late in the cycle to commit for the following year aren't waiting to see who makes the Final 4, they are waiting to see who bolts for the draft and opens up playing time at blue blood schools, for the most part.

George Mason is the only school on that list that did not have a huge impact by attending the FF. Butler was top ten last year and the talent they are attracting is better than before it was. Joining the Big East would not have happened if not for Bulter's runs. Wichita St is now a national power and it helps them move up in the conference level. They are also getting players that would not have given a second look. VCU also moved up in conference and recruits in a higher league than before.

Gonzaga was a national player before last season and it will continue. I can see multiple more FFs and an NC or two.
What I don't understand is the darkness surrounding the outlook for next year's team. Next year's team brings 5 US four-star recruits (one top 50 and another two top 100) and also add Silas Melson (underrated 3 star), the player tied with the most games won in the postseason in Zags history at 11 (11!!!) games. And you have a great base, then comes Few's Foreign Legion of 4 and 5-star players of Tillie, Larson, Rui and Joel. That is a group of 10 (10!!!) 4 and 5-star recruits or experienced proven players that mix size, skill, experience, and talent. And who is doing the mixing? An experienced staff with excellent coach and training. They have shooters, ball handlers, passer, big skilled guys, athletic prowess and defensive stoppers. This team can be something special and based on talent it could one of Few's potentially best teams.

CDC84
05-25-2017, 11:25 AM
I know I've said this before, but look at the recruiting for George Mason, VCU, Butler and Wichita St. after they made Final 4 runs. It's not magic or fairy dust folks. Had very little impact for any of those schools. I'd say Butler joining the Big East had more of an impact on their recruiting than back to back Championship Game appearances did. Elite recruits waiting until late in the cycle to commit for the following year aren't waiting to see who makes the Final 4, they are waiting to see who bolts for the draft and opens up playing time at blue blood schools, for the most part.

I don't think you can compare Gonzaga to those schools seacatfan. For one, Gonzaga was recruiting top 100 and high major players on a regular basis when those genuine "mid major" schools were making final fours with legit mid major recruits. I mean from a recruiting standpoint. Hayward obviously turned into a pro. But a team like Butler couldn't land a guy like Austin Daye or Matt Bouldin in a million years in 2011. So Gonzaga was way ahead of those programs on the recruiting pecking order. Secondly, all of those schools are located in geographical areas of the map where recruiting is much, much more difficult than it is for Gonzaga. A school like VCU has everyone from the Big 10 to the ACC to the SEC surrounding them. As Bud Withers has even said, part of the reason why there is only one Gonzaga is because they are geographically located on the map in an area with very few high major schools but no shortage of talent. Gonzaga is in a much, much, much better place to take advantage of recruiting post-final 4 than George Mason, although, as you have mentioned, Butler has been able to upgrade somewhat due to their change of conference. I realize that the Midwest and east coast has more prep talent, but there are only so many schools west of the Mississippi who are of Gonzaga's stature, and the west coast has a lot of talent in the next few classes. I mean, when GU is losing recruits these days, they are losing players like David Singleton to UCLA. Post-final 4, VCU was still losing kids to middling BCS teams like Clemson.

The other advantage that GU has is an elite coach that is staying put. Few isn't going anywhere.

I still strongly argue we will see Gonzaga land a couple of players it normally wouldn't land as a result of the title game run. But it wasn't going to happen this spring. The Zags are just not in a position right now to sell the grad transfer thing to a Byron Wesley type because there is too much uncertainty as to how good next year's team will be. They can't say to anyone, "You're the missing piece at small forward for a final 4 run" or whatever. As you mentioned, GU is never going to be a Kentucky or a Kansas in terms of its ability to sweep up elite spring recruits who have been waiting to see where they might fit in based on who bails for the draft. The Zags are not a program that can instantly replace NWG and Collins with a couple of 5 star spring players.

I do not feel it is unreasonable to suggest that we might see a couple of recruiting surprises in the next 2-3 years, but yes, anyone who felt Few was going to be able to cast his net this spring and land multiple 5 stars was mistaken. It's going to take way more accomplishment than that to recruit at that kind of level, and even then it may not happen.

Malastein
05-25-2017, 11:46 AM
I think too much emphasis is being placed on worrying about transfers. Next season looks like there's a number of immediate impact newcomers. I don't think that necessarily bodes well for the transfer department since guys definitely want to know that they'll play. Some of the names floated about didn't seem like they'd really fit. Also, Nigel Williams-Goss talked about how the next group would be the ones who will finally get over the hump. Let's not look too far beyond some of the talent already on and coming into the fold now. They may be the ones good enough where transfers don't see themselves as being able to play meaningful minutes.

seacatfan
05-25-2017, 11:58 AM
Lots of good counterpoints from various posters.

Teams changing conferences is dynamic, it's a trickle up affect from the changes the BCS/Power 5 conferences have made. Plenty of other schools have traded up in conferences w/out making a Final 4 run, so I'm not gonna give that more credit than it deserves. Creighton and Xavier have both moved up (multiple time for X) w/out a F4. And Wichita St. didn't really make much of an upward move to the AAC. That thing is a house of cards that could/will crumble at any moment.

Also, how much has Wichita St.'s recruiting really improved? They've been getting under the radar guys that turned out to be really good players for years under Coach Marshall and have been a really solid program. Are they really moving into the territory of getting blue chippers? Doesn't seem like it to me.

Agree that Gonzaga was certainly in a better position prior to their F4 than any of those other schools. Like I mentioned their recruiting was already really good before the F4.

Not sure how much geography is a plus for GU. Spokane is fairly isolated and not particularly close to noted talent pools (well Seattle area isn't that far but has been a notoriously tough nut for GU to crack). How close is close? California is fairly far, not to mention EVERYBODY recruits California, not just Pac 12 schools. Aren't really that many Californians on GU's roster over the years anyway. GU's recruiting base is...the whole globe pretty much. There are relatively few elite schools out West and GU is one of them, so there's that. But most of the high school talent is out East. Don't know...GU has certainly found a great niche, not sure if the success is because of Spokane or in spite of it?

seacatfan
05-25-2017, 02:37 PM
For a completely different look at how a Final 4 effects a team moving forward, what happened with Mississippi St. after their FF in '96? Not much. A bit up and down. Maybe a few big recruits, but never became an elite program. Coach was let go eventually. Now have Ben Howland, who went to 3 FF w/ UCLA. He's upped their recruiting, but not much to show for it so far.

Let's see what happens to South Carolina. Will this be the beginning of great things for their program, or prove to be a fluke? I'd be more inclined to go w/ the latter than the former.

Georgetown was a powerhouse under John Thompson. A couple coaches later his son took the Hoyas to a FF in '07, but otherwise fairly massively underachieved in the post season, and eventually got relieved of his duties as head coach. They have been struggling to be among the better teams in the new look Big East. I don't think they are really considered a destination school and haven't been recruiting all that well any time recently.

Illinois had several FF in ancient times, again in '89 and most recently in '05. Shortly after that latest one the program fell apart. They keep going thru different coaches every 3-4 years but nothing seems to be working. They've become kind of a joke of a program and are close to irrelevant at this point.

A pattern seems to emerge. A Final Four in and of itself guarantees zilch in terms of recruiting or overall success going forward.

Reborn
05-25-2017, 04:33 PM
To me Mark Few and Tommy Lloyd and Daniels are the keys. People will come to Gonzaga because of the coaches. I guess that's why I am not worried. I'm sure that grad transfers are looking for a school where they can start, and as far as I can tell, there is not room at Gonzaga for someone to come in and start. Anyway, not from the list of possible grad transfers that I've seen posted here. Over the years Gonzaga has lost many recruiting battles to Arizona, Oregon and even San Diego St. I must add UCLA now because their program seems to be revitalized. And yet over the last 5 years Gonzaga has made it to two Elite 8's, a Sweet 16 and a Final Four, finishing 2nd last year. I don't see any problem with recruiting. What teams can boast that kind of success over the last five years? I've said it many times, next year's team is going to be far better than most think. i guarantee you that they will finish the year much higher than 19th. We could use one, maybe two players and we'll be fine. I think we're Sweet 16 good right now.

Go Zags!!!

GoZags
05-25-2017, 06:08 PM
["To me Mark Few and Tommy Lloyd and Daniels are the keys."
----------
Ahem

Brian Michaelson was the lead guy in getting Kyle Wiltjer, Zach Collins and Nigel Williams-Goss. Seems to me his name deserves to be mentioned with the other three.

MDABE80
05-25-2017, 07:09 PM
"A pattern seems to emerge. A Final Four in and of itself guarantees zilch in terms of recruiting or overall success going forward" Says Seacat.
Throw in coach of the year and if the above statement holds true, color me shocked. If I was a kid, I'd be all over a rising program with those credentials. Maybe it's the culture. Doesn't look like GU is a fixture just yet.
Then again, look at at AZ's ranking posted in the top 25. Just crazy to think they continue to roll and we seem to eek it out yearly. Maybe we just stay hungry.

thespywhozaggedme
05-25-2017, 07:38 PM
"A pattern seems to emerge. A Final Four in and of itself guarantees zilch in terms of recruiting or overall success going forward" Says Seacat.
Throw in coach of the year and if the above statement holds true, color me shocked. If I was a kid, I'd be all over a rising program with those credentials. Maybe it's the culture. Doesn't look like GU is a fixture just yet.
Then again, look at at AZ's ranking posted in the top 25. Just crazy to think they continue to roll and we seem to eek it out yearly. Maybe we just stay hungry.

I know that I'm going to sound like a broken record but it really is as simple as three letters: WCC.

Reborn
05-25-2017, 08:22 PM
"A pattern seems to emerge. A Final Four in and of itself guarantees zilch in terms of recruiting or overall success going forward" Says Seacat.
Throw in coach of the year and if the above statement holds true, color me shocked. If I was a kid, I'd be all over a rising program with those credentials. Maybe it's the culture. Doesn't look like GU is a fixture just yet.
Then again, look at at AZ's ranking posted in the top 25. Just crazy to think they continue to roll and we seem to eek it out yearly. Maybe we just stay hungry.

Maybe we are just better. Gonzaga has had better players overall than AZ in the last few years. Something must be attracting players like Kyle Wiltjer, Sabonis, Williams-Goss, Mathews, Kevin Pangos, Bell, Olynyk, Harris, Perkins, Melson, Karnowski, Wade, Hachimura, Tillie, Norvell, J. Williams III. Funny think is, don't be surprised if GU is better than Arizona this year. I won't.

Go Zags!!!

Coach Crazy
05-25-2017, 08:33 PM
GU has some similar approaches to that of the San Antonio Spurs


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

seacatfan
05-25-2017, 10:23 PM
Some of you are getting a bit defensive. I've said several times Gonzaga's recruiting was great before the Final 4. It's not like this last season is going to hurt them. But it might not lift them into a different stratosphere either. Many teams that have reached a Final 4 didn't get this big boost afterward that some of you seem to be expecting.

Not sure of the need to try to compare Gonzaga and Arizona. Both are doing fine and should have a good year in '17-'18.

TexasZagFan
05-26-2017, 05:09 AM
Some of you are getting a bit defensive. I've said several times Gonzaga's recruiting was great before the Final 4. It's not like this last season is going to hurt them. But it might not lift them into a different stratosphere either. Many teams that have reached a Final 4 didn't get this big boost afterward that some of you seem to be expecting.

Not sure of the need to try to compare Gonzaga and Arizona. Both are doing fine and should have a good year in '17-'18.

It's a couple of years old, but the gallery is interesting. Arizona made the top 10 of Forbes' "Most Valuable Teams", "Cinderella story" Northwestern checked in at #15, with 2015 revenues at $15 million.

Dayton @ 17???
Xavier @ 19.
Marquette @ 20.

Zags nowhere to be found.

https://www.forbes.com/pictures/hfjj45ehmk/college-basketballs-mos/#187dffb475b7

kitzbuel
05-26-2017, 08:59 AM
Some of you are getting a bit defensive. I've said several times Gonzaga's recruiting was great before the Final 4. It's not like this last season is going to hurt them. But it might not lift them into a different stratosphere either. Many teams that have reached a Final 4 didn't get this big boost afterward that some of you seem to be expecting.

Not sure of the need to try to compare Gonzaga and Arizona. Both are doing fine and should have a good year in '17-'18.
Comparisons are inevitable. They are both top level west coast and they have consistently played each other, offering clearly measured comparisons.

Sent from my XT1575 using Tapatalk

CDC84
05-26-2017, 12:51 PM
It's a couple of years old, but the gallery is interesting. Arizona made the top 10 of Forbes' "Most Valuable Teams", "Cinderella story" Northwestern checked in at #15, with 2015 revenues at $15 million.

Dayton @ 17???
Xavier @ 19.
Marquette @ 20.

Zags nowhere to be found.

https://www.forbes.com/pictures/hfjj45ehmk/college-basketballs-mos/#187dffb475b7

I know there were some fiscal years under Olsen where Arizona was the #1 most profitable men's basketball program in the nation. More profitable than Kentucky or even Duke.

I have no idea where Forbes is getting their numbers, but there used to be a fantastic site called pointafter.com which gave you info on how much each men's basketball program spent in a fiscal year, how much revenue they generated in a fiscal year, and how much profit they generated in a fiscal year. Same with other sports. I specifically remember the 2015/2016 season.....if GU were in the Pac 12, they would've been the 2nd most profitable team in the Pac 12 and the 3rd best team in the Pac 12 in program revenue. They had all the numbers. I actually posted the rankings in March (I think) when certain commentators kept referring to Gonzaga as a mid major program despite the fact that they made money like a high major program. I didn't even need to mention the chartered jet, scheduling advantages and all the other goodies.

Sadly, I just went to the site and was greeted with this message:

This site is no longer available.
We are sorry for the inconvenience

It is a great inconvenience, because I used it countless times to quiet badly informed people. Hopefully someone will come up with a similar site.

CDC84
05-26-2017, 01:14 PM
Got it. This is for the 2015/2016 fiscal year from pointafter.com. Men's basketball:

Expenses:

Arizona State: $10.06 million
Arizona: $8.98 million
UCLA $8.26 million
Gonzaga $7.36 million
Oregon $6.80 million
Cal $6.46 million
UW $6.34 million
Utah $6.10 million
Oregon $5.64 million
Stanford $5.14 million
WSU $4.85 million
USC $4.77 million
Oregon State $4.67 million

Revenue:

Arizona $19.22 million
UCLA $12.23 million
Gonzaga $12.19 million
UW $9.86 million
Arizona State $9.10 million
Cal $9.00 million
Utah $8.34 million
Oregon $8.31 million
Stanford $6.93 million
Colorado $6.02 million
Oregon State $5.37 million
WSU $5.26 million
USC $4.68 million

Profit:

Arizona $10.24 million
Gonzaga $4.82 million
UCLA $3.97 million
UW $3.52 million
Cal $2.55 million
Utah $2.24 million
Stanford $1.79 million
Oregon $1.51 million
WSU $406,138
Oregon State $693,463
Colorado $383,345
USC -$92,347
Arizona State -$962,561