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Markburn1
05-24-2017, 10:17 AM
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/19446846/kentucky-wildcats-wenyen-gabriel-duke-blue-devils-marques-bolden-top-players-leave-early-nba-draft-next-season

Looks like every year Zag fans will be holding their breath. And that's not a bad thing.

Zag_Dad
05-24-2017, 11:22 AM
This wouldn't surprise me at all. Tillie is an elite athlete and will only get stronger and better next year. I hate seeing kids leave GU early (for selfish reasons) but there is a true sense of pride when they do.

Enjoy them while we have them.

Goshzagit
05-24-2017, 11:31 AM
This wouldn't surprise me at all. Tillie is an elite athlete and will only get stronger and better next year. I hate seeing kids leave GU early (for selfish reasons) but there is a true sense of pride when they do.

Enjoy them while we have them.

I think most posters on the board assumed this year or the next.

Tillie has NBA written all over his game.

He can technically play 3 positions at the next level. He shows more range & continues to get stronger (as he's done), he will be a high pick.

He is 6'10" with a 7' wing span, can hit the 3, post up, drive, play savvy defense, & the game comes natural/easy for him. Add in his knack for the ball & ability to block shots, versatility.

His potential is a legit Top 10 pick.

IF tillie would have been healthy after age 16, combined with his body/muscle filling out, he would not have ended uo at Gonzaga, rather the hype of the next great euro combo fwd.

Tillie was named MVP of nearly every amateur tourney he played in from age 14 til his knee issues for a reason.

He might end up being our go to player or leading scorer as early as next season. Has big time skills.

thebigsmoove
05-24-2017, 11:45 AM
Tillie has NBA written all over his game.

Hes already projected top 15 draft pick next year:

NBADraft.net (http://www.nbadraft.net/2018mock_draft)

Coach Crazy
05-24-2017, 11:46 AM
With an ORtg of 121.7, an DRtg of 81.8, a PER of 19.5, and a BPM of 10.3 (granted he would have to improve his OBPM a bit)...yeah, people are taking note. IF he up's his minutes per game and maintains that level of efficiency, there will at least be some talk about him entering the draft. IF his ORtg is in the mid-high 20's, his PER gets into the 20's, and his OPBM hit's the 5's or 6's...then I think you can probably say goodbye.

Hard for scouts to stay away from an efficiency profile like that.

Zagger
05-24-2017, 11:49 AM
Since this isn't the whole article ......


Last year, Domantas Sabonis earned a first-round deal with the Oklahoma City Thunder after leaving Gonzaga following his sophomore season. Zach Collins is a projected lottery pick in this summer's NBA draft. Przemek Karnowski will sign a professional deal somewhere too. Mark Few's luck with big men could continue with Tillie. His brother, Kim Tillie, plays in the Euroleague. His father and brother were both professional volleyball players. With more than the 12.3 minutes per game he logged last season in Few's rotation, Tillie could make a strong case as the next Gonzaga big man to turn pro and leave Spokane.

I think the author is stretching things a bit (not at all a slam on Killian) and including Tillie more in the vein of 'guilt by association'. It would not surprise me if KT blew up and attracted the pros. For that matter there're J3 and Rui too. It may end up being pretty rare that a GU big stays 4 years. Really hard to predict that sort of future. One has to factor in guys like Karnowski and Edwards too. What GU gets and how it all turns out ...... if it were more predictable I venture that it would not be as much fun to be a fan. For the type of player character that GU lands I truly hope each guy leaves early due to skills, drive, play, etc. and that they kick opponents' posteriors! That's just not going to happen though. There's very likely to be a mix of stay and go like there is now.

maynard g krebs
05-24-2017, 11:50 AM
Yeah, probly his last season if he plays to expectations. So it goes in this age.

jazzdelmar
05-24-2017, 11:52 AM
as a huge Collins fan, as most here know, i continue to feel Tillie has as much or more pro upside than Zach......

LongIslandZagFan
05-24-2017, 01:12 PM
I suspect he'll at least declare next year if not outright get an agent and just go. Putting bigs in the NBA year after year after year only improves how GU looks to the big fellas. From everything I saw this last season, I expected it well before this article and believe I alluded to it more than once that he'd likely be 2 and done.

MDABE80
05-24-2017, 01:16 PM
Staff has a tall hill to climb in recruiting bigs. Nearly vertical!

Mantua
05-24-2017, 02:08 PM
I've been worried about recruiting big men for months. Now I'm hoping that Larsen will be around for at least a couple more years.

former1dog
05-24-2017, 02:10 PM
as a huge Collins fan, as most here know, i continue to feel Tillie has as much or more pro upside than Zach......

If Tillie can stay healthy, I see him being the best pro of all the recent Zag entries (better than Olynyk, Collins and Sabonis). He's such a skilled big guy and so athletic and that's exactly the game needed in today's NBA.

Malastein
05-24-2017, 04:21 PM
Well, Olynyk has been slightly better than average pretty much his whole career for PER. Sabonis is well under, but I think we'll see him blossom in time. Collins is a big question mark still, but I wouldn't be surprised if Tillie isn't a long time glue guy in the league. He hustles, has a knack for being in the right spot, and his skills will continue to develop. A year from now this may be a much more interesting conversation.

zagbeliever
05-24-2017, 04:22 PM
I really, really like Tillie. I think he is going to shine with more minutes. I can't think about losing him.

amaronizag
05-26-2017, 03:17 PM
I'm a huge Tillie fan also. I see lots of already developed skills in Tillie compared to Rui who has raw talent and potential for development. As I have said previously, I have high hopes for Rui, but he still has a ways to go in his development. I see Tillie as being GU's version of Don Havlicek, coming off the bench with lots of hustle, really solid defense, steals, blocks, make lots of free throws, and score at will when finally given the green light to be aggressive because he can score in so many ways. He'll put up some great numbers across the board for GU and fill up the stat sheet now that it's finally his time to shine. Yes, we need a back-up center for foul problem nights and insurance against injury, but I'm totally fine with a 3 man rotation with Tillie, J3, and Larson getting all the major minutes at the 4 and 5. I really hope we get more than one more year out of him. IF we got him back the following year (2018-2019), Tillie would be an absolute stud, maybe the best all around and most well rounded true 4 ever at GU. Yes, that's saying a lot, but I think (hoping) he can live up to that.

sittingon50
05-26-2017, 08:38 PM
"John" Havlicek

Don "Nelson"

HenneZag
05-26-2017, 09:16 PM
Tillie will make a good jump next year. He needs to learn to play better with fouls and get rid of some of the ticky tack fouls. I assume we will see improvement, not easy adjusting to our style of play.

MontanaCoyote
05-27-2017, 07:38 AM
I don't like it when kids drop out of school to go pro, but I understand the reality. I've also
found, for myself at least, a silver lining in it.

When they come and go, you don't have time to really get emotionally attached to a player as a player, teammate and person. When you get 4 or 5 years like we did with Karno, you can get (I sure did) so hooked on a guy that when they finally do go you have to pull yourself together just to deal with it.

Maybe just an old softie, but it's hard for me to let go once I latch on.

Sure going to miss The Mountain!

jazzdelmar
05-27-2017, 08:37 AM
I'm a huge Tillie fan also. I see lots of already developed skills in Tillie compared to Rui who has raw talent and potential for development. As I have said previously, I have high hopes for Rui, but he still has a ways to go in his development. I see Tillie as being GU's version of Don Havlicek, coming off the bench with lots of hustle, really solid defense, steals, blocks, make lots of free throws, and score at will when finally given the green light to be aggressive because he can score in so many ways. He'll put up some great numbers across the board for GU and fill up the stat sheet now that it's finally his time to shine. Yes, we need a back-up center for foul problem nights and insurance against injury, but I'm totally fine with a 3 man rotation with Tillie, J3, and Larson getting all the major minutes at the 4 and 5. I really hope we get more than one more year out of him. IF we got him back the following year (2018-2019), Tillie would be an absolute stud, maybe the best all around and most well rounded true 4 ever at GU. Yes, that's saying a lot, but I think (hoping) he can live up to that.

There will only be one Hondo, the greatest Celtic ever. Yes, ever. And a top 20 NBAer in my book.

JPtheBeasta
05-27-2017, 09:18 AM
I don't like it when kids drop out of school to go pro, but I understand the reality. I've also
found, for myself at least, a silver lining in it.

When they come and go, you don't have time to really get emotionally attached to a player as a player, teammate and person. When you get 4 or 5 years like we did with Karno, you can get (I sure did) so hooked on a guy that when they finally do go you have to pull yourself together just to deal with it.

Maybe just an old softie, but it's hard for me to let go once I latch on.

Sure going to miss The Mountain!

I have the same sentiments. Every year you lose a guy like that and I think it will be so hard, nigh impossible, to replace his statistical contributions, leadership, and personality. But the train keeps chugging along somehow. It's amazing how the next person just steps up and helps this team win. We have been spoiled by so much success, and it probably has to do with the coaches getting guys ready, and these guys in the wings observing and learning from people like Special K.

To think that the all-time winningest player in college probably won't get drafted into the NBA is pretty remarkable to me. It's a game for players like Tillie right now (who I am really looking forward to watching), but I think that the pendulum will swing and a player like Karnowski will be valuable again in a few years in the NBA. As I watched the Celtics get beat up down low in the playoffs putting stretch centers out there, I couldn't help thinking that Karnowski, even with his known limitations in agility and foot speed, would have been a net positive for them.

basketballzag
05-27-2017, 10:48 AM
as a huge Collins fan, as most here know, i continue to feel Tillie has as much or more pro upside than Zach......
The
I agree with Jazz and definitely expect Tillie to put his name in at the end of the season along with JWIII. 2 years of the FewCo coaching exp is what was needed for him. He will be a monster. Norvell is the ? mark as to a 2nd one and done at GU.

amaronizag
05-27-2017, 10:55 AM
You're right Jazz, only one Hondo....ever. He was "complete" and my all time hero back when I was a young player. I'm hoping Tillie will become GU's version of Hondo. Tillie can score in so many ways and he's a ball magnet like Hart and Draino....he's always where the ball is and it seems like his hands are always in the action. I hope he becomes all I think he can be when he grows in confidence, plays wide open on uninhibited instinct, and hits full stride. Let 'er rip Tillie.

Mantua
05-27-2017, 01:06 PM
Tillie can score in so many ways and he's a ball magnet like Hart and Draino....he's always where the ball is and it seems like his hands are always in the action.[/B]

Tillie's ability to get to the right spot, move without the ball and consistently make an effort on defense impressed me immediately. Has there ever been a freshman at GU who arrived so ready to play?

SunDevilGolfZag
05-27-2017, 03:09 PM
Tillie's ability to get to the right spot, move without the ball and consistently make an effort on defense impressed me immediately. Has there ever been a freshman at GU who arrived so ready to play?

Elias Harris. But Tillie has more upside

zagsfanforlife
05-27-2017, 03:57 PM
Tillie's ability to get to the right spot, move without the ball and consistently make an effort on defense impressed me immediately. Has there ever been a freshman at GU who arrived so ready to play?

First name Adam. Last name Morrison

JPtheBeasta
05-27-2017, 05:05 PM
First name Adam. Last name Morrison

Aside from not knowing the plays as a freshman, he was pretty good :) I remember being so shocked at the confidence he showed from the get go.

The story might actually apocryphal, but I think I remember a former player saying that he didn't really know the system very well early on. I would appreciate if anybody could corroborate that...

jazzdelmar
05-27-2017, 05:12 PM
Tillie's ability to get to the right spot, move without the ball and consistently make an effort on defense impressed me immediately. Has there ever been a freshman at GU who arrived so ready to play?

Blake, with a star.

SunDevilGolfZag
05-27-2017, 05:42 PM
Blake, with a star.

Yeah Blake was ready too, like Harris. Morrison really took another year to be on that level

ZagNative
05-27-2017, 07:47 PM
Tillie's ability to get to the right spot, move without the ball and consistently make an effort on defense impressed me immediately. Has there ever been a freshman at GU who arrived so ready to play?
This kid was pretty good from day one: "Kevin Pangos scores 33 points vs Washington State on November 14, 2011."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zDJgeqKaUwo

CDC84
05-27-2017, 08:48 PM
Tillie is going to be GU's starting center next season and be a key component to the offense. He could very well see more MPG next season that Collins did this past season. Tillie is a terrific athlete. I would love to see him continue to develop that floater he has going into the lane. That is an impossible shot to block at the next level.

Malastein
05-27-2017, 09:42 PM
Tillie is going to be GU's starting center next season and be a key component to the offense. He could very well see more MPG next season that Collins did this past season. Tillie is a terrific athlete. I would love to see him continue to develop that floater he has going into the lane. That is an impossible shot to block at the next level.

Is Tillie that much better than Larsen? I'm asking more because Larsen is largely an unknown...

Zagger
05-28-2017, 03:01 AM
Is Tillie that much better than Larsen? I'm asking more because Larsen is largely an unknown...

I can't help but think about Olynyk and Sabonis when I think of Larsen .... Collins, J3 and Mt. K too for that matter. All of these bigs have benefitted by being at GU and all gotten better (I'd say anyway). Larsen's been at GU for a year working with some darn good coaches and players. My guess is that Larsen is quite good and will get even better as a result.

My favorite Big success story is Shemmick. Not the classical improvement story like KO's but ...... Mt. K could barely crawl in the winter of 15-16. It took the guy quite some time to even walk. Then he was a starter on a Championship team in 16-17. That took a GREAT GU program to achieve. It may not have happened at any other school/program.

So, not to be over confident that Larsen could be one hot center ...... I'd say he's at the right school where there's an excellent chance he's going to be a valuable asset to the Zags. I also feel that due to GU's rep thus far with Bigs that we've got a fair chance of landing another before September - even though I feel we'll be fine with what we have.

Reborn
05-28-2017, 08:21 AM
IMO Tillie will average around 12-13 ppg next season and will be far more effective than Collins was for most of the season. He will certainly play way more minutes than Collins did and average more than JW3 did. He will not be our main scorer as the Zags will be a little more guard oriented next year. He will certainly be a much better free-throw shooter than JW3 and PK were last season. I don't see Larson starting next season either, and I hope he can bring a strong game off the bench. Gonzaga is used to playing with 3 post players so I really don't see a problem, as so many do.

The Zags are loaded at the 3 guard positions, led by two mature guards in Perkins and Melson. The three incoming freshmen guards, Wade, Norvell and Kispert are very very good and a lot better than the analysts think, so far. Most likely the Zags will have an eight player rotations with Wade, Kispert and Larson coming off the bench. We essentially have the same type of team as last year, but this year will be more guard oriented. I believe we'll get the same type of scoring as a team as we did last season. This should be another very good offensive team. If you are wondering why there is not much action this Spring in terms of recruiting, the answer is simple. There is not much room for any transfer who is looking to play a lot of minutes next year. I believe the coaches are quite happy with the team they already have for next year and are focused more on the '18-'19 recruiting class.

Go Zags!!!

thespywhozaggedme
05-28-2017, 09:39 AM
Tillie is going to be GU's starting center next season and be a key component to the offense. He could very well see more MPG next season that Collins did this past season. Tillie is a terrific athlete. I would love to see him continue to develop that floater he has going into the lane. That is an impossible shot to block at the next level.

I really don't want to see him playing center, he 6'10 225 at the most. If he has to go against someone like Landale, he'll foul out in 20 minutes. He's the perfect stretch four. I'd really like to see Larsen start and either JWIII or Tillie as the starting pf. Tillie isn't a center in any way shape or form.

thespywhozaggedme
05-28-2017, 09:41 AM
IMO Tillie will average around 12-13 ppg next season and will be far more effective than Collins was for most of the season. He will certainly play way more minutes than Collins did and average more than JW3 did. He will not be our main scorer as the Zags will be a little more guard oriented next year. He will certainly be a much better free-throw shooter than JW3 and PK were last season. I don't see Larson starting next season either, and I hope he can bring a strong game off the bench. Gonzaga is used to playing with 3 post players so I really don't see a problem, as so many do.

The Zags are loaded at the 3 guard positions, led by two mature guards in Perkins and Melson. The three incoming freshmen guards, Wade, Norvell and Kispert are very very good and a lot better than the analysts think, so far. Most likely the Zags will have an eight player rotations with Wade, Kispert and Larson coming off the bench. We essentially have the same type of team as last year, but this year will be more guard oriented. I believe we'll get the same type of scoring as a team as we did last season. This should be another very good offensive team. If you are wondering why there is not much action this Spring in terms of recruiting, the answer is simple. There is not much room for any transfer who is looking to play a lot of minutes next year. I believe the coaches are quite happy with the team they already have for next year and are focused more on the '18-'19 recruiting class.

Go Zags!!!

3 guard positions? Point guard, shooting guard, and…?

willandi
05-28-2017, 09:46 AM
3 guard positions? Point guard, shooting guard, and…?

Third guard! Call it a wing if it makes you feel better.

Sabonis and Wiltjer weren't centers either but played that position, much as Tillie will play that position. I think the three bigs will rotate in and out, sliding over to cover whatever is needed.

jazzdelmar
05-28-2017, 10:21 AM
Bornie, I hope you meant to say Tillie will play 22-23 minutes, or more, next year.

maynard g krebs
05-28-2017, 10:28 AM
Yeah Blake was ready too, like Harris. Morrison really took another year to be on that level

Disagree. He had his best games against the biggest nonconference competition. Huge games on the road at Stanford and Maryland. I'll never forget his baseline fadeaway at the Garden v St Joe's, and Vitale's "are you kidding me".

As CDC often points out, Few's biggest coaching mistake was not starting Adam that year. 11+ ppg in about 20 min, 53% fg.

jazzdelmar
05-28-2017, 10:32 AM
Disagree. He had his best games against the biggest nonconference competition. Huge games on the road at Stanford and Maryland. I'll never forget his baseline fadeaway at the Garden v St Joe's, and Vitale's "are you kidding me".

As CDC often points out, Few's biggest coaching mistake was not starting Adam that year. 11+ ppg in about 20 min, 53% fg.




"Biggest?"

maynard g krebs
05-28-2017, 10:36 AM
"Biggest?"

Biggest that the Zags played that year, to be clear. Bigger than the WCC, and the games early in the year, as the topic was his readiness.

maynard g krebs
05-28-2017, 10:37 AM
Bornie, I hope you meant to say Tillie will play 22-23 minutes, or more, next year.

He said ppg, not mpg

thespywhozaggedme
05-28-2017, 10:37 AM
Third guard! Call it a wing if it makes you feel better.

Sabonis and Wiltjer weren't centers either but played that position, much as Tillie will play that position. I think the three bigs will rotate in and out, sliding over to cover whatever is needed.

I don't think Wiltjer ever played one minute at center, I'm pretty sure that's revisionist history. I could be wrong though, and if he did it was deafly the exception rather than the rule. Sabonis is much thicker than Tillie. Tillie is pretty athletic and agile I could even see him playing the three in limited minutes that's because he's athletic.

jazzdelmar
05-28-2017, 10:40 AM
He said ppg, not mpg

Ahhhh, my bad. Thx.

jazzdelmar
05-28-2017, 10:41 AM
Sorry, but that's just nonsense, and kind of insulting to PK. He played double digit minutes in a 4 man rotation, behind 3 quality upperclassmen. Coach K tried to get in on him late, and he has no need to recruit projects. PK would have been a top 50 recruit in the US.

Koach recruits projects. He just chases them ASAP if they don't develop quickly.

maynard g krebs
05-28-2017, 10:49 AM
IMO Tillie will average around 12-13 ppg next season and will be far more effective than Collins was for most of the season. He will certainly play way more minutes than Collins did and average more than JW3 did. He will not be our main scorer as the Zags will be a little more guard oriented next year. He will certainly be a much better free-throw shooter than JW3 and PK were last season. I don't see Larson starting next season either, and I hope he can bring a strong game off the bench. Gonzaga is used to playing with 3 post players so I really don't see a problem, as so many do.

The Zags are loaded at the 3 guard positions, led by two mature guards in Perkins and Melson. The three incoming freshmen guards, Wade, Norvell and Kispert are very very good and a lot better than the analysts think, so far. Most likely the Zags will have an eight player rotations with Wade, Kispert and Larson coming off the bench. We essentially have the same type of team as last year, but this year will be more guard oriented. I believe we'll get the same type of scoring as a team as we did last season. This should be another very good offensive team. If you are wondering why there is not much action this Spring in terms of recruiting, the answer is simple. There is not much room for any transfer who is looking to play a lot of minutes next year. I believe the coaches are quite happy with the team they already have for next year and are focused more on the '18-'19 recruiting class.

Go Zags!!!

That's a great post. Couldn't agree more, but one question: did you forget about Rui, or don't you think he's ready to make the jump some are predicting?

Agree on the 3 man post rotation; a 4th big is basically injury insurance.

And as an aside, what about Ayayi? Most of us are assuming he'll wait his turn because of age and physical development, but he could be a pleasant surprise, or so I've heard.

maynard g krebs
05-28-2017, 10:54 AM
Koach recruits projects. He just chases them ASAP if they don't develop quickly.

Guess it depends how you define project. I'm talking about Foster, Edwards, McLeod types. Guess you could call most 18 yo bigs projects as they all have some developing of skills left to do.

maynard g krebs
05-28-2017, 11:00 AM
Biggest that the Zags played that year, to be clear. Bigger than the WCC, and the games early in the year, as the topic was his readiness.

Oops, I guess I said "biggest" twice, and you referred to "biggest coaching mistake". My bad. Quoting something said multiple times by CDC, who I consider one of the most knowledgeable people here.

jazzdelmar
05-28-2017, 11:04 AM
Guess it depends how you define project. I'm talking about Foster, Edwards, McLeod types. Guess you could call most 18 yo bigs projects as they all have some developing of skills left to do.

No, certainly not that fledgling. But Koach's version of a project, which I guess Jeter was though he was highly rated.

seacatfan
05-28-2017, 11:18 AM
GBJ was ready to play right away as a freshman.

Agree about Morrison. His Fr. year, it was a Sr. dominated team and he wasn't expected to be much of a factor. He was too good to keep off the court that whole season.

There have been quite a few really good Fr. campaigns put in by GU players. I think Daye's debut was a 20/10 game and he looked pretty smooth right from the get go.

sittingon50
05-28-2017, 12:31 PM
Sorry, but that's just nonsense, and kind of insulting to PK. He played double digit minutes in a 4 man rotation, behind 3 quality upperclassmen. Coach K tried to get in on him late, and he has no need to recruit projects. PK would have been a top 50 recruit in the US.

I believe Zagger is correct, maynard. Unless I blew my calculations, in the winter of '15-'16, PK was a Sr. & was injured.

Reborn
05-28-2017, 12:50 PM
3 guard positions? Point guard, shooting guard, andů?

the 3 is the position Mathews and Melson played last year.

maynard g krebs
05-28-2017, 12:50 PM
I believe Zagger is correct, maynard. Unless I blew my calculations, in the winter of '15-'16, PK was a Sr. & was injured.

Oops again, my bad, and apologies to Zagger. I remember posts about PK as a fr and misread Zagger's post. Moments of premature senility are sneaking in with more frequency. That's my excuse, anyway.

Reborn
05-28-2017, 12:56 PM
That's a great post. Couldn't agree more, but one question: did you forget about Rui, or don't you think he's ready to make the jump some are predicting?

Agree on the 3 man post rotation; a 4th big is basically injury insurance.

And as an aside, what about Ayayi? Most of us are assuming he'll wait his turn because of age and physical development, but he could be a pleasant surprise, or so I've heard.

Good post, and you are right about Rui and Ayay. My main purpose of the post was that there really isn't much room for anyone else. Zags do appear to me to be loaded next year and the year after too. I'm sure Rui will play. And I'm not sure Few likes to play more than 8 very often. So maybe there will be one or two guys read shirting.

Zagger
05-28-2017, 01:19 PM
Oops again, my bad, and apologies to Zagger. I remember posts about PK as a fr and misread Zagger's post. Moments of premature senility are sneaking in with more frequency. That's my excuse, anyway.

:) Happens to the best of us :)
Have a great weekend!

maynard g krebs
05-28-2017, 02:09 PM
:) Happens to the best of us :)
Have a great weekend!

Thanks, you too. Stupid post by me deleted,except in sitting's quote.

thespywhozaggedme
05-28-2017, 02:13 PM
the 3 is the position Mathews and Melson played last year.

That was a 3 guard lineup out of necessity. Kispert and Rui are legit sized sf's. I'm excited to see how the new young guys perform. As I mentioned in another post another Elite Eight wouldn't surprise me.

DixieZag
05-28-2017, 06:14 PM
The
I agree with Jazz and definitely expect Tillie to put his name in at the end of the season along with JWIII. 2 years of the FewCo coaching exp is what was needed for him. He will be a monster. Norvell is the ? mark as to a 2nd one and done at GU.

Now I know all is right in the world.

I saw this thread and thought; "I figured everyone knows he is "two and done" talent/ability" and that the scholie chart and all that priced it in, already. Now, here, you agree. So, it is now consensus again.

maynard g krebs
05-30-2017, 12:50 PM
Good post, and you are right about Rui and Ayay. My main purpose of the post was that there really isn't much room for anyone else. Zags do appear to me to be loaded next year and the year after too. I'm sure Rui will play. And I'm not sure Few likes to play more than 8 very often.

I went back 10 seasons on ESPN stat page. In the last 10 years, nine or more players have gotten rotation minutes for at least part of the season six of ten times. (Most recently 2015) Arbitrarily, I defined that as averaging 8+ minutes per game, as Barham averaged 8.3 as a junior, Melson 9.6 as a fr, etc. Twice in the last 10 years, 11 players have gotten rotation minutes, ten players once, nine 3 times.

There's some flexibility in this as well depending on how many worthy players there are at each position; last year's bigs split two spots btw 4 guys, and the guards split 3 spots btw 4 guys. As of now, your projected top 8 is 3 bigs and 5 perimeters. That means that Few will play 4 bigs a lot in the regular rotation in a given year, or 5 perimeters a lot in a given year, dep on how many worthy players there are, and sometimes guys play their way in/out of the rotation. So 9-11 guys playing rotation minutes for much of the season next year is very possible, based on past esperience imo.

Of course, the rotation tightens to 8 when tourney time approaches. Based on the above data and what GoZags posted in this forum about the staff being extremely high on Ayayi recently, I'm going to project an initial rotation of 10 for most of the year, with 9 in dbl digit minutes and the tenth pretty close as a season average.

ZagWhoShotLibertyValance
05-30-2017, 01:28 PM
And, if MGK is correct, that still leaves Jeremy Jones, a guy with nearly 300 minutes played last year, on the outside of this rotation. We are very deep next year
Eleven players deep. Young. But that will change.

mgadfly
05-30-2017, 02:34 PM
I went back 10 seasons on ESPN stat page. In the last 10 years, nine or more players have gotten rotation minutes for at least part of the season six of ten times. (Most recently 2015) Arbitrarily, I defined that as averaging 8+ minutes per game, as Barham averaged 8.3 as a junior, Melson 9.6 as a fr, etc. Twice in the last 10 years, 11 players have gotten rotation minutes, ten players once, nine 3 times.

There's some flexibility in this as well depending on how many worthy players there are at each position; last year's bigs split two spots btw 4 guys, and the guards split 3 spots btw 4 guys. As of now, your projected top 8 is 3 bigs and 5 perimeters. That means that Few will play 4 bigs a lot in the regular rotation in a given year, or 5 perimeters a lot in a given year, dep on how many worthy players there are, and sometimes guys play their way in/out of the rotation. So 9-11 guys playing rotation minutes for much of the season next year is very possible, based on past esperience imo.

Of course, the rotation tightens to 8 when tourney time approaches. Based on the above data and what GoZags posted in this forum about the staff being extremely high on Ayayi recently, I'm going to project an initial rotation of 10 for most of the year, with 9 in dbl digit minutes and the tenth pretty close as a season average.

I compared this with KenPom's % of minutes. In the last 10 years more than 8 players have played in 20% or more of GU's minutes four times.

2013: 10 guys played more than 20% of the time. However, Dranginis, Edi and Karnowski barely made the cut. It was mostly a six man rotation. In fact, Dranginis and Edi didn't even log a minute in several games down the home-stretch. GLE played double-digit minutes in 12 of the first 13 games. He played double-digit minutes in 3 of the final 22 including 0 minutes in the loss to Wichita State where GBJ was injured part way through. I think that was mostly about finding a small forward as essentially GLE, Dranginis, Hart and Barnham all auditioned for that spot throughout the season. Then, the rotation tightened up considerably.

2012: 9 guys played more than 20% of the time. It is probably the closest we've had to a true 9-man rotation as GLE, Carter and Hart split up the minutes for the third guard (or second wing) spot.

2011: 10 guys played more than 20% of the time. Arop and Monninghoff barely made the cut but received minutes early in the season as the staff tried to find someone to fill the SF spot. By the end of the season, Carter took those minutes and the rotation shrunk to 8 again.

2008: 10 guys played more than 20% of the time. That included several players that barely made the cut or missed chunks of the season due to injury or suspension. Gurganious, Sacre, Heytvelt and Gray.

So overall, it looks like the staff may rotate people early in the season at a spot they aren't sold on anyone filling. However, the rotation usually shrinks to 8 or 7 (and sometimes 6) by the end of the season. I think 2008 is a true outlier due to the suspension issues. And 2011 through 2013 is really more indicative of having a position without a true standout player to fill the spot. If we see 10 or 11 guys this year, that's because 1 or more positions have a perceived weakness by the coaching staff. I don't think that would be a good thing. Hopefully, we have an 8 or 9 man rotation that works well together right from the get-go, nobody gets injured, and nobody gets suspended.

Reborn
05-30-2017, 02:56 PM
Very good information, Thanks. And you right. Few plays 10 ro 11 guys during some of the preseason games. Most likely will not play that many in preseason games where GU is playing a top 30 team, as they will play in tournaments, ect (Arizona). He will get down to a 7 or 8 man rotation as the Zags approach the post-season play. But who's to say what he'll do this year. There is a lot of talent on this team. He may use ten guys all year. If they are good enough to play in Few's and other coaches minds then they will play. I think it helped the team in the long run this year to have a bench that played a lot of minutes. He used up to ten guys off and on, our first eight plus Rui and Jones.

maynard g krebs
05-30-2017, 03:07 PM
And, if MGK is correct, that still leaves Jeremy Jones, a guy with nearly 300 minutes played last year, on the outside of this rotation. We are very deep next year
Eleven players deep. Young. But that will change.

Yeah, I forgot about Jones again, who some people who know a lot have said will play next year.

maynard g krebs
05-30-2017, 03:11 PM
I compared this with KenPom's % of minutes. In the last 10 years more than 8 players have played in 20% or more of GU's minutes four times.

2013: 10 guys played more than 20% of the time. However, Dranginis, Edi and Karnowski barely made the cut. It was mostly a six man rotation. In fact, Dranginis and Edi didn't even log a minute in several games down the home-stretch. GLE played double-digit minutes in 12 of the first 13 games. He played double-digit minutes in 3 of the final 22 including 0 minutes in the loss to Wichita State where GBJ was injured part way through. I think that was mostly about finding a small forward as essentially GLE, Dranginis, Hart and Barnham all auditioned for that spot throughout the season. Then, the rotation tightened up considerably.

2012: 9 guys played more than 20% of the time. It is probably the closest we've had to a true 9-man rotation as GLE, Carter and Hart split up the minutes for the third guard (or second wing) spot.

2011: 10 guys played more than 20% of the time. Arop and Monninghoff barely made the cut but received minutes early in the season as the staff tried to find someone to fill the SF spot. By the end of the season, Carter took those minutes and the rotation shrunk to 8 again.

2008: 10 guys played more than 20% of the time. That included several players that barely made the cut or missed chunks of the season due to injury or suspension. Gurganious, Sacre, Heytvelt and Gray.

So overall, it looks like the staff may rotate people early in the season at a spot they aren't sold on anyone filling. However, the rotation usually shrinks to 8 or 7 (and sometimes 6) by the end of the season. I think 2008 is a true outlier due to the suspension issues. And 2011 through 2013 is really more indicative of having a position without a true standout player to fill the spot. If we see 10 or 11 guys this year, that's because 1 or more positions have a perceived weakness by the coaching staff. I don't think that would be a good thing. Hopefully, we have an 8 or 9 man rotation that works well together right from the get-go, nobody gets injured, and nobody gets suspended.

As to the 20% of minutes and discrepancy btw 4 and 6 seasons out of 10 playing 9 or more, most of the players at the bottom of the rotation missed a few games over the course of the season, so if averaging 8-9 mpg and missing 10% of the games that drops them below the 20% threshold.

cggonzaga
05-30-2017, 03:15 PM
Yeah, I forgot about Jones again, who some people who know a lot have said will play next year.

I hope Jones sees the floor next season but I hope it's because we're playing 11 guys. If he's playing over Rui/Norvell/Kispert then something is wrong with one of those players.

jazzdelmar
05-30-2017, 04:28 PM
I hope Jones sees the floor next season but I hope it's because we're playing 11 guys. If he's playing over Rui/Norvell/Kispert then something is wrong with one of those players.

Great point. Won't see as many minutes as he did last season, as scant as they were.

Ekrub
05-30-2017, 06:55 PM
The
I agree with Jazz and definitely expect Tillie to put his name in at the end of the season along with JWIII. 2 years of the FewCo coaching exp is what was needed for him. He will be a monster. Norvell is the ? mark as to a 2nd one and done at GU.

You think that he is good enough to be a possible one and done?

ZagsObserver
05-30-2017, 09:26 PM
Much harder for a guard to be a one and done unless you play for the likes of Duke, Kentucky, UNC. Norvell will play for GU as a sophomore.

Coach Crazy
05-31-2017, 05:17 AM
Much harder for a guard to be a one and done unless you play for the likes of Duke, Kentucky, UNC. Norvell will play for GU as a sophomore.

Is there a statistical basis for this? This year's DE mock has 6 forwards going in the lottery. If that were to hold true, it would present a very balanced opportunity for both G and F.

Zach has the physical tools to be a one-and-done. He may not be as long as some would like...but he utilizes his length much better than a lot of longer guards out there.

If he hits certain advanced metrics, it won't matter. He'll be a long lotto pick.


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Idahozag10
06-01-2017, 08:36 PM
https://twitter.com/baskonia/status/870374607680921601

in this video, Tillie said he was going to stay at gonzaga for a few years... such a great kid... we might see him for another couple of years, not just 1 more.


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WallaWallaZag
06-02-2017, 01:46 AM
https://twitter.com/baskonia/status/870374607680921601

in this video, Tillie said he was going to stay at gonzaga for a few years... such a great kid... we might see him for another couple of years, not just 1 more.

well, sabonis originally planned to play 3 and maybe even 4 if you go by what he said in interviews prior to arrival...

ZagMan in Philly
06-20-2017, 07:06 PM
https://twitter.com/baskonia/status/870374607680921601

in this video, Tillie said he was going to stay at gonzaga for a few years... such a great kid... we might see him for another couple of years, not just 1 more.


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Tillie is putting up some good numbers for France Under 19 warm up games. He is going to be huge for us next year.

http://www.fiba.com/world/u19/2017/news/germany-win-three-games-at-u19-warm-up-tournament

Bogozags
06-21-2017, 03:12 AM
Tillie is putting up some good numbers for France Under 19 warm up games. He is going to be huge for us next year.

http://www.fiba.com/world/u19/2017/news/germany-win-three-games-at-u19-warm-up-tournament

Thanks for posting...looking forward to reading about France's performances and stats...:D

LongIslandZagFan
06-21-2017, 07:07 AM
Jazz isn't a big Few fan... never has been.

Zagdawg
06-21-2017, 09:07 AM
No way........

jazzdelmar
06-21-2017, 02:14 PM
Jazz isn't a big Few fan... never has been.

Irrespective of the validity of your comment, what is its context here, on this thread?

zag67
06-21-2017, 04:31 PM
Jazz, I would say it had to do with your comment on Jones playing time being less than last year. That might be true, but without even seeing any of the new players or figuring out how they will fit on this team, that is hard to say. Few will have to mold the new players and the existing players into a team. And I believe that Jones will be a solid contributor (maybe not major minutes, but solid minutes when the team needs him). Also, I would say that Jones, does play super solid defense and played vey hard. Just like with Hart and others that were mainly a defensive specialist, he may work into a solid option on this team.

jazzdelmar
06-21-2017, 05:59 PM
Jazz, I would say it had to do with your comment on Jones playing time being less than last year. That might be true, but without even seeing any of the new players or figuring out how they will fit on this team, that is hard to say. Few will have to mold the new players and the existing players into a team. And I believe that Jones will be a solid contributor (maybe not major minutes, but solid minutes when the team needs him). Also, I would say that Jones, does play super solid defense and played vey hard. Just like with Hart and others that were mainly a defensive specialist, he may work into a solid option on this team.

Fair enough. But if the COY chose not to play Jones much last year why would anyone feel he will get more PT this year where there is a surfeit of more highly rated players at his position(s)?

GoZags
06-21-2017, 06:06 PM
Fair enough. But if the COY chose not to play Jones much last year why would anyone feel he will get more PT this year where there is a surfeit of more highly rated players at his position(s)?

Maybe you missed the part where Jeremy suffered a horrific high ankle sprain, and wasn't able to contribute until late in the season.

jazzdelmar
06-21-2017, 06:08 PM
Maybe you missed the part where Jeremy suffered a horrific high ankle sprain, and wasn't able to contribute until late in the season.

Maybe I missed the "contribute" part. Pray tell, when was that? He played 88 mins all year, nil in the last 7-8 games, per Zags official stats. But that's not the point. If Kispert and Norvell aren't soaking up all the bench minutes at his positions, then that's big trouble.

kitzbuel
06-21-2017, 07:11 PM
Maybe I missed the "contribute" part. Pray tell, when was that? He played 88 mins all year, nil in the last 7-8 games, per Zags official stats. But that's not the point. If Kispert and Norvell aren't soaking up all the bench minutes at his positions, then that's big trouble.
Take another look at the stats.

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jazzdelmar
06-21-2017, 07:31 PM
Take another look at the stats.

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What am I missing?

Jeremy Jones

|---TOTAL---| |---3-PTS---| |----REBOUNDS----|
Opponent Date GS Min FG-FGA Pct 3FG-FGA Pct FT-FTA Pct Off Def Tot Avg PF FO A TO Blk Stl Pts Avg
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AKRON 12/10/16 2 0-1 .000 0-0 .000 0-0 .000 1 0 1 1.0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0.0
SOUTH DAKOTA 12/21/16 9 0-0 .000 0-0 .000 1-2 .500 2 2 4 2.5 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0.5
PEPPERDINE 12/29/16 2 0-1 .000 0-1 .000 0-0 .000 0 1 1 2.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.3
at San Francisco 01/05/17 2 0-0 .000 0-0 .000 0-0 .000 0 1 1 1.8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.3
LOYOLA MARYMOUNT 01/12/17 5 1-1 1.000 0-0 .000 0-0 .000 1 0 1 1.6 0 0 0 1 0 1 2 0.6
SAINT MARY'S 01/14/17 1 0-0 .000 0-0 .000 0-0 .000 0 0 0 1.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.5
at Santa Clara 01/19/17 5 0-1 .000 0-0 .000 0-0 .000 0 1 1 1.3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.4
PORTLAND 01/21/17 2 0-0 .000 0-0 .000 0-0 .000 1 0 1 1.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.4
at Portland 01/23/17 8 1-2 .500 0-1 .000 0-0 .000 1 1 2 1.3 1 0 1 0 0 0 2 0.6
SAN DIEGO 01/26/17 3 0-0 .000 0-0 .000 0-0 .000 0 1 1 1.3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.5
at Pepperdine 01/28/17 8 1-1 1.000 0-0 .000 0-0 .000 1 4 5 1.6 0 0 2 1 2 0 2 0.6
SANTA CLARA 02/04/17 6 0-0 .000 0-0 .000 0-0 .000 0 1 1 1.6 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0.6
at Loyola Marymount 02/09/17 4 1-1 1.000 0-0 .000 0-1 .000 0 1 1 1.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0.7
SAN FRANCISCO 02/16/17 6 1-4 .250 0-0 .000 2-2 1.000 1 1 2 1.6 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 0.9
PACIFIC 02/18/17 8 0-1 .000 0-1 .000 0-0 .000 0 1 1 1.5 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0.9
at San Diego 02/23/17 7 1-3 .333 0-1 .000 0-0 .000 0 1 1 1.5 0 0 1 0 0 1 2 0.9
vs Pacific 03/04/17 4 0-0 .000 0-0 .000 0-0 .000 0 1 1 1.5 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0.9
vs Santa Clara 03/06/17 1 0-0 .000 0-0 .000 0-0 .000 0 0 0 1.4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.8
vs Saint Mary's 03/07/17 1 0-0 .000 0-0 .000 0-0 .000 0 0 0 1.3 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0.8
vs South Dakota State 03/16/17 1 0-0 .000 0-0 .000 0-0 .000 0 1 1 1.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.8
vs Northwestern 03/18/17 1 0-0 .000 0-0 .000 0-0 .000 0 0 0 1.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.7
vs West Virginia 03/23/17 1 0-0 .000 0-0 .000 0-0 .000 0 0 0 1.2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.7
vs Xavier 03/25/17 1 0-0 .000 0-0 .000 0-0 .000 0 0 0 1.1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0.7
vs North Carolina 04/03/17 0 0-0 .000 0-0 .000 0-0 .000 0 0 0 1.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.6

Totals......................... 0 88 6-16 .375 0-4 .000 3-5 .600 8 18 26 1.1 7 0 6 5 3 5 15 0.6

MDABE80
06-21-2017, 08:47 PM
Best to provide a link to the data! I went blind! We didn't see enough of him to know how good he is. I know he's a very good athlete. He has a few more years. Maybe he'll get more time this year...who knows? I do know that Corey and Norvelle will get lots of time. Neither is perfect now but with some time, both should be excellent.

btzag
06-21-2017, 09:26 PM
Maybe I missed the "contribute" part. Pray tell, when was that? He played 88 mins all year, nil in the last 7-8 games, per Zags official stats. But that's not the point. If Kispert and Norvell aren't soaking up all the bench minutes at his positions, then that's big trouble.

+1

kitzbuel
06-22-2017, 03:00 AM
What am I missing?

Jeremy Jones

|---TOTAL---| |---3-PTS---| |----REBOUNDS----|
Opponent Date GS Min FG-FGA Pct 3FG-FGA Pct FT-FTA Pct Off Def Tot Avg PF FO A TO Blk Stl Pts Avg
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AKRON 12/10/16 2 0-1 .000 0-0 .000 0-0 .000 1 0 1 1.0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0.0
SOUTH DAKOTA 12/21/16 9 0-0 .000 0-0 .000 1-2 .500 2 2 4 2.5 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0.5
PEPPERDINE 12/29/16 2 0-1 .000 0-1 .000 0-0 .000 0 1 1 2.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.3
at San Francisco 01/05/17 2 0-0 .000 0-0 .000 0-0 .000 0 1 1 1.8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.3
LOYOLA MARYMOUNT 01/12/17 5 1-1 1.000 0-0 .000 0-0 .000 1 0 1 1.6 0 0 0 1 0 1 2 0.6
SAINT MARY'S 01/14/17 1 0-0 .000 0-0 .000 0-0 .000 0 0 0 1.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.5
at Santa Clara 01/19/17 5 0-1 .000 0-0 .000 0-0 .000 0 1 1 1.3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.4
PORTLAND 01/21/17 2 0-0 .000 0-0 .000 0-0 .000 1 0 1 1.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.4
at Portland 01/23/17 8 1-2 .500 0-1 .000 0-0 .000 1 1 2 1.3 1 0 1 0 0 0 2 0.6
SAN DIEGO 01/26/17 3 0-0 .000 0-0 .000 0-0 .000 0 1 1 1.3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.5
at Pepperdine 01/28/17 8 1-1 1.000 0-0 .000 0-0 .000 1 4 5 1.6 0 0 2 1 2 0 2 0.6
SANTA CLARA 02/04/17 6 0-0 .000 0-0 .000 0-0 .000 0 1 1 1.6 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0.6
at Loyola Marymount 02/09/17 4 1-1 1.000 0-0 .000 0-1 .000 0 1 1 1.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0.7
SAN FRANCISCO 02/16/17 6 1-4 .250 0-0 .000 2-2 1.000 1 1 2 1.6 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 0.9
PACIFIC 02/18/17 8 0-1 .000 0-1 .000 0-0 .000 0 1 1 1.5 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0.9
at San Diego 02/23/17 7 1-3 .333 0-1 .000 0-0 .000 0 1 1 1.5 0 0 1 0 0 1 2 0.9
vs Pacific 03/04/17 4 0-0 .000 0-0 .000 0-0 .000 0 1 1 1.5 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0.9
vs Santa Clara 03/06/17 1 0-0 .000 0-0 .000 0-0 .000 0 0 0 1.4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.8
vs Saint Mary's 03/07/17 1 0-0 .000 0-0 .000 0-0 .000 0 0 0 1.3 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0.8
vs South Dakota State 03/16/17 1 0-0 .000 0-0 .000 0-0 .000 0 1 1 1.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.8
vs Northwestern 03/18/17 1 0-0 .000 0-0 .000 0-0 .000 0 0 0 1.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.7
vs West Virginia 03/23/17 1 0-0 .000 0-0 .000 0-0 .000 0 0 0 1.2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.7
vs Xavier 03/25/17 1 0-0 .000 0-0 .000 0-0 .000 0 0 0 1.1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0.7
vs North Carolina 04/03/17 0 0-0 .000 0-0 .000 0-0 .000 0 0 0 1.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.6

Totals......................... 0 88 6-16 .375 0-4 .000 3-5 .600 8 18 26 1.1 7 0 6 5 3 5 15 0.6
I was referring to the 'nil in last 7-8 games' part. Had as much running time during crucial time as Rui.

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jazzdelmar
06-22-2017, 04:00 AM
Kitz, a difference without a distinction
In the 9 post season games, Jones played 10 m.
Rui played 11 m.
In any case, to GoZags post, I wouldn't call him a contributor
True, an offseason metamorphosis is possible.

kitzbuel
06-22-2017, 04:10 PM
My point is that I fail to see anything indicating he is on a different trajectory than Rui.

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jazzdelmar
06-22-2017, 04:17 PM
My point is that I fail to see anything indicating he is on a different trajectory than Rui.

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Gotcha. And as of now their trajectory has been relatively flat, maybe 10 degrees elevation at the most.

soccerdud
06-22-2017, 05:53 PM
My point is that I fail to see anything indicating he is on a different trajectory than Rui.

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oh, so now you're hating on rui. i get it. (jk)

btzag
06-22-2017, 08:07 PM
My point is that I fail to see anything indicating he is on a different trajectory than Rui.

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I think you, and others, though are confusing people on this board...do you believe the staff should prioritize Jones over Rui and Kispert at the 3? Do you think he is the better player in November and then in March?

MY opinion is Jones is a walk-on who has talent but will only get garbage minutes this year. If he gets starter minutes it's like two years ago with Alberts.

Reborn
06-22-2017, 08:28 PM
If you heard the podcast by Tommy you'd know that Rui has a real big future at GU. Although it could be short. There is no comparison between Rui and Jones. I am just shocked with the lack of basketball knowledge being on display here in this thread. On this point Jazz is right about Jones. I didn't see anything in Jones being able to help the Zags. Maybe it's his D. I saw NO OFFENSE. Rui on the other hand showed some very high athletic and shooting talent. Big time recruit. I can hardly wait to see him play next year.