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View Full Version : Caduceus: can you put up the KenPom Head to Head?



MDABE80
04-01-2017, 08:20 PM
Zags vs UNC.

I think they have been offense but we have the better defense.
Out bigs should be able to be more than equal to the task. Out guards are better IMO.
We play our defense and keep the offense rolling and we win.
We're dogs right now (-2.5).
only the brave would favor UNC with it's history. Let's face it, they are good.
I'm thinking We can win this one with defense.
I'm thinking with Zach showing up so large, the outcome is now tilted toward the Zags. If need be, we can field 3 bigs who can score and play defense. Tillie is a great substitute.

ScrapironJim
04-01-2017, 08:33 PM
Team------Rank-----AdjEM-------AdjO--------AdjD

Zags--------1---------32.66--------12----------1

UNC---------3---------27.76--------7-----------16

Zags favored by 4 with 63% probability

caduceus
04-01-2017, 11:03 PM
I'll take care of it. My 10 year-old had a State Cup soccer game, so I had to do the "media blackout mode" thing this afternoon (phone off, preemptively tell all the other parents to shut up about the score, etc.). There was even a parent from the other team with a Zags sweatshirt on, whom I would normally befriend and chat up in any other circumstance. I zipped out of there after the game with my head down, and holed up with the DVR and a six-pack.

http://i.imgur.com/DNaSxld.gif



Turned on the phone after the game to a million texts. WOOOOOOOO!

http://i.imgur.com/MU5gHxJ.gif

(My girl's team won 13-0 too!)

Stand by for Head to Head!

caduceus
04-01-2017, 11:04 PM
Ugh....TeamRankings hasn't posted the data yet. Will do when it's available.

caduceus
04-01-2017, 11:19 PM
KenPom predictor at gamepredict.us also is not updated. P̶r̶e̶-̶F̶F̶ ̶m̶a̶t̶c̶h̶u̶p̶ ̶h̶a̶d̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶Z̶a̶g̶s̶ ̶w̶i̶n̶n̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶b̶y̶ ̶7̶.̶5̶ ̶o̶v̶e̶r̶ ̶U̶N̶C̶ ̶(̶s̶c̶o̶r̶e̶ ̶8̶0̶ ̶-̶ ̶7̶3̶)̶.̶ Will update when it comes up.


Edit: Dang it. I didn't have it on a neutral court. Pre-FF matchup had the Zags winning by 3.5 over UNC (score 79-75).

caduceus
04-02-2017, 12:34 AM
Stats Overview:


http://i.imgur.com/AVXcBiG.png



Efficiency Stats:


http://i.imgur.com/PiNLtEN.png



Four Factors are 2 to 2. No question this is going to be a battle. Unlike last game, the offensives are pretty much a wash. UNC's #1 offensive rebounding ability is off the charts. Guess who is #1 in defensive rebounds? Yep, Zags. Crazy matchup!

caduceus
04-02-2017, 12:53 AM
Holy crap...UNC's rebounding is literally off the charts:

https://i2.wp.com/harvardsportsanalysis.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/UNCRebounding.png?w=975

(Zags are to the right of middle, about 2/3 of the way up)

Source: North Carolina’s Ability on the Boards is Absurd | The Harvard Sports Analysis Collective (http://harvardsportsanalysis.org/2017/04/north-carolinas-ability-on-the-boards-is-absurd/)

MDABE80
04-02-2017, 01:27 AM
Thank You. A lot of food here.

john montana
04-02-2017, 07:17 AM
We gotta win the glass. Pretty simple.

DixieZag
04-02-2017, 07:49 AM
Is this the first game this year where we're the Vegas dog?


Good points made above, Abe.

willandi
04-02-2017, 08:03 AM
There starting five list 4 forwards and 1 guard. They start at 6'10, 6' 9, 6'8, 6'5 and 6'0.

If,as the Carolina fan implied, they like to score off the fast break, and, as the numbers show, they score a lot on offensive rebounds, the key will seem to be be patient, take care of the ball (no t/o"s) make OUR shots and rotate back on defense. A high shooting percentage by the Zags combined with fewer turnovers, limits the ability to fast break. The defense being rotated back limits offensive boards.

At the same time, Zags have to continue the inside out play. They do have more tall players on the bench, but none over 6'10, so foul trouble inside will hurt them. The same applies if we can get Berry in foul trouble. They 1 back up PG that plays, and while I'm sure he is good


NOBODY HAS FACED THE #1 DEFENSE IN THE COUNTRY BEFORE!!!


(Well, you just have to forget BYU)

CdAZagFan
04-02-2017, 08:12 AM
We gotta win the glass. Pretty simple.

This... To me this game comes down to crashing the boards and limiting NC to one shot. If we do that, we have a great chance. Watching Oregon box out on those late free throws - we can't do that!

caduceus
04-03-2017, 04:12 AM
Here's more nitty gritty. Basically matchup stats with division I rankings assigned to each.

http://i.imgur.com/PwXoV6u.png
source: Teamrankings.com (https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/matchup/bulldogs-tar-heels-2017-04-03/stats)

Enjoy.

http://i.imgur.com/Xb7B9xk.gif

TexasZagFan
04-03-2017, 07:50 AM
Hold our own on the glass, and limit TO's. Sounds pretty simple to me.

I'm looking forward to seeing our defense shine for one more game.

DeanSmithForever
04-03-2017, 08:07 AM
Great data research, Caduceus! Out of curiosity, how is Gonzaga on defending pick and rolls? Because Jackson is so strong from midrange and Meeks is such an exceptional offensive rebounder, Roy has an ingenious little wrinkle in our pick and roll we like to run against teams who rely on a big inside presence, so I imagine we will see this play a lot. Normally I wouldn't share this play on a forum because I am sure it comes across as tedious, but the analysis I have seen by Zags fans here is so deep, I will push my luck with a very detailed breakdown of the pick n roll we sometimes run...

First, Jackson cuts through the lane and our first big (usually Meeks) sets a screen for Jackson down low, then our second big (Hicks) sets another screen up toward the foul line; the back to back screens free Jackson up, who then flashes to the top of the three point line where Pinson or Berry hit him with a pass as soon as he gets there. If the three is not immediately available, Hicks (up toward foul line) and Meeks (near hoop) run past each other and try to screen so they rub off each other's defenders with Meeks headed towards Jackson and Hicks away from him. Meeks quickly sets a screen for Jackson out top, and because of Hicks' rub screen on Meeks' defender, Meeks defender isn't able to hedge like he wants, which allows Jackson to penetrate a step or two inside the three point line before being picked up.

Once Jackson gets inside the three point line a step or two, usually the big on defense is forced to pick him up due to his midrange game. At this point, instead of passing to Meeks as he rolls to the hoop, Jackson shoots over top of the guard defending him (who is now at Jackson's side because of Meek's screen) and past the outstretched arms of the big (who was forced to pick Jackson up). If Jackson makes the jumper, we get two points, and if he misses, the pick in roll was never designed for Meeks to get a pass from Jackson after he set the screen; instead, it was designed for Meeks to get an offensive rebound while the other team's big who was forced to help on Jackson can't stay in the paint to battle with Meeks for the board.

If another defender goes to block out Meeks so he won't get the uncontested board (let's say Hicks' defender), the player whose defender helped (Hicks) goes and crashes the board as well, giving us a two to one advantage to snatch a rebound for an easy put back.

There are of course a few variations to this play such as us throwing the ball to Hicks for a dunk after the rub screen with Meeks if the other team overplays on Meeks so they can better hedge on Jackson. However, what I described above is the gist of the play.

I am curious how Gonzaga will guard this, as it is one of our half court bread and butter plays that Few with his coaching prowess will know is coming. Teams have often tried switching to a zone to break up plays like this, but zones usually allow us to get lots of offensive rebounds anyway which is where our strength lies. That said, until Pinson came back from injury, teams had success against our zone more than when they played man. The way we have been shooting, a zone might work if the rebounding issues most zones experience can be solved by Gonzaga. Oregon actually rebounded well out of their zone. Either the Zags will need to rebound from the zone or they will have to figure out a way to keep Jackson from getting inside the arc on the pick in roll, because he is usually deadly from that range.

I am sure that was way more technical and Grantland-ish than most of you cared to hear, but hopefully it will make watching the game a little more fun for those of you who really enjoy the strategy aspect of basketball.

Hoopaholic
04-03-2017, 08:39 AM
Great data research, Caduceus! Out of curiosity, how is Gonzaga on defending pick and rolls? Because Jackson is so strong from midrange and Meeks is such an exceptional offensive rebounder, Roy has an ingenious little wrinkle in our pick and roll we like to run against teams who rely on a big inside presence, so I imagine we will see this play a lot. Normally I wouldn't share this play on a forum because I am sure it comes across as tedious, but the analysis I have seen by Zags fans here is so deep, I will push my luck with a very detailed breakdown of the pick n roll we sometimes run...

First, Jackson cuts through the lane and our first big (usually Meeks) sets a screen for Jackson down low, then our second big (Hicks) sets another screen up toward the foul line; the back to back screens free Jackson up, who then flashes to the top of the three point line where Pinson or Berry hit him with a pass as soon as he gets there. If the three is not immediately available, Hicks (up toward foul line) and Meeks (near hoop) run past each other and try to screen so they rub off each other's defenders with Meeks headed towards Jackson and Hicks away from him. Meeks quickly sets a screen for Jackson out top, and because of Hicks' rub screen on Meeks' defender, Meeks defender isn't able to hedge like he wants, which allows Jackson to penetrate a step or two inside the three point line before being picked up.

Once Jackson gets inside the three point line a step or two, usually the big on defense is forced to pick him up due to his midrange game. At this point, instead of passing to Meeks as he rolls to the hoop, Jackson shoots over top of the guard defending him (who is now at Jackson's side because of Meek's screen) and past the outstretched arms of the big (who was forced to pick Jackson up). If Jackson makes the jumper, we get two points, and if he misses, the pick in roll was never designed for Meeks to get a pass from Jackson after he set the screen; instead, it was designed for Meeks to get an offensive rebound while the other team's big who was forced to help on Jackson can't stay in the paint to battle with Meeks for the board.

If another defender goes to block out Meeks so he won't get the uncontested board (let's say Hicks' defender), the player whose defender helped (Hicks) goes and crashes the board as well, giving us a two to one advantage to snatch a rebound for an easy put back.

There are of course a few variations to this play such as us throwing the ball to Hicks for a dunk after the rub screen with Meeks if the other team overplays on Meeks so they can better hedge on Jackson. However, what I described above is the gist of the play.

I am curious how Gonzaga will guard this, as it is one of our half court bread and butter plays that Few with his coaching prowess will know is coming. Teams have often tried switching to a zone to break up plays like this, but zones usually allow us to get lots of offensive rebounds anyway which is where our strength lies. That said, until Pinson came back from injury, teams had success against our zone more than when they played man. The way we have been shooting, a zone might work if the rebounding issues most zones experience can be solved by Gonzaga. Oregon actually rebounded well out of their zone. Either the Zags will need to rebound from the zone or they will have to figure out a way to keep Jackson from getting inside the arc on the pick in roll, because he is usually deadly from that range.

I am sure that was way more technical and Grantland-ish than most of you cared to hear, but hopefully it will make watching the game a little more fun for those of you who really enjoy the strategy aspect of basketball.

We will switch on the second back pick of big to Jackson.....JW3 will be able to guard and provide length in that particular case with Karnowski(collins) provide paint coverage during this switch its is one of the unique virtues of the Zag defense being able to switch 1-4 without issues and then 1-5 when Collins is in

as to the split offensive rebounders....I fully expect our guards to be crashing down to provide rebounding support and Goss has been tremendous in providing this type of weakside block out and rebounding

zaguarxj
04-03-2017, 12:53 PM
What is Gonzaga's record in past games vs North Carolina? I can only remember 2 off the top of my head, the Zags win when Heytvelt made Tyler Hansborough look like a chump and the game when NC destroyed the Zags in the tourney.

krozman
04-03-2017, 12:55 PM
We had a November thanksgiving time game when NC was very highly ranked that we won.

caduceus
04-03-2017, 01:14 PM
What is Gonzaga's record in past games vs North Carolina? I can only remember 2 off the top of my head, the Zags win when Heytvelt made Tyler Hansborough look like a chump and the game when NC destroyed the Zags in the tourney.

Yep, 1-1.

2007 Preseason NIT (Zags won)
2009 Sweet 16 (UNC won)