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View Full Version : Win Probability Yesterday: Never Below 90%



thegloriousgoateeofKP
03-19-2017, 10:02 AM
Just curious for reactions. As tense as the game seemed yesterday, KenPom (and other analytics sites like 538 are pretty much in agreement) suggest that the game never really was in doubt. Given the talent gap between the Zags and NW, and given a 5-point lead, under 7 to play...still would have required a bunch of things going wrong.

Here's the win probability chart for Northwestern: http://imgur.com/7yVhdKZ

Here's one that looks similar, for SMC in Vegas: http://imgur.com/0eT6eOR

Another blow lead that allegedly got tense late, but never really did. Tennessee: http://imgur.com/KMLIe6S

MTZag03
03-19-2017, 10:05 AM
I wonder about that. Lost in all the missed call stuff is the fact that teams on a long comeback are exhausted. If it was a 3 point game late I still think the Zags close it out.

hondo
03-19-2017, 10:38 AM
I just wish that my heart had this information in he last 10 minutes of games. Maybe it would calm down.

thegloriousgoateeofKP
03-19-2017, 10:53 AM
I just wish that my heart had this information in he last 10 minutes of games. Maybe it would calm down.

I know, right!? I've been following these for a long time actually...and every time I tell myself, "Ok, Zags are, like 80% + to win here." But that never seems to calm the nerves