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View Full Version : I agree with this Article... I think St. Mary's beats Arizona



Kong-Kool-Aid
03-14-2017, 12:36 PM
Assuming they both get past their first round games of course.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/18908160/saint-mary-danger-seeding-teams-strength-record


No. 7 seeds are usually favored to win their first game, and BPI gives Saint Mary's an 82 percent chance of beating VCU in the first round. Assuming Arizona wins its first round game as well, that sets the Gaels up for a major upset -- according to the seeds, anyway. But BPI says Saint Mary's (12th) is better than Arizona (24th), and gives the Gaels roughly a 55 percent chance to win that game and move on. In fact, after simulating the tournament 10,000 times, Saint Mary's is actually the ninth-most likely team to win the tournament at 3.5 percent -- well ahead of 3-seeds like UCLA (2.2%), Baylor (1%), and Florida State (1.1%).

Shanachie
03-14-2017, 12:42 PM
Assuming they both get past their first round games of course.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/18908160/saint-mary-danger-seeding-teams-strength-record

St. Mary's in the regional final is a game I don't want to see.

MJ777
03-14-2017, 12:49 PM
While I think it could happen, "I'm not seeing it" to quote Shooter's son in Hoosiers.

seacatfan
03-14-2017, 12:52 PM
I'm not seeing it either. St. Mary's got 3 cracks at GU, and while they hung in there for a while, ended up losing convincingly all 3 times. Arizona played fairly poorly at times against GU and still managed to make the game a lot closer than St. Mary's ever managed to. If Arizona plays like they did at Pauley Pavilion or the last 2 Pac 12 tourney games, this one isn't close.

Gonzdb8
03-14-2017, 12:53 PM
St. Mary's in the regional final is a game I don't want to see.

right...cause the last thing we'd want to see in a regional final to advance to our first FF is a team that can't match up with us well at any position and that has lost to us 3x in a year by an average margin of 17 points. i'm reminded of the famous words of a great thinker who once exclaimed "please don't throw me in that briar patch."
its all academic anyhow because arizona is going to dismantle them.

Kong-Kool-Aid
03-14-2017, 12:53 PM
I'm not seeing it either. St. Mary's got 3 cracks at GU, and while they hung in there for a while, ended up losing convincingly all 3 times. Arizona played fairly poorly at times against GU and still managed to make the game a lot closer than St. Mary's ever managed to.

Assuming Gonzaga played a perfect game of course?

seacatfan
03-14-2017, 12:55 PM
Assuming Gonzaga played a perfect game of course?

The first 10 minutes was close to perfect. After that GU stumbled some, but Arizona was in a deep hole and didn't shoot very well during the entire course of the game. If SMC isn't shooting well they have no chance. If Arizona isn't shooting well they have some other ways of making a game interesting.

Kong-Kool-Aid
03-14-2017, 01:00 PM
right...cause the last thing we'd want to see in a regional final to advance to our first FF is a team that can't match up with us well at any position and that has lost to us 3x in a year by an average margin of 17 points. i'm reminded of the famous words of a great thinker who once exclaimed "please don't throw me in that briar patch."
its all academic anyhow because arizona is going to dismantle them.

BPI and KenPom say St Mary's is a better team than Arizona.. same analytics that say Gonzaga is the best team in the country.... Not trusting them?

Kong-Kool-Aid
03-14-2017, 01:04 PM
The first 10 minutes was close to perfect. After that GU stumbled some, but Arizona was in a deep hole and didn't shoot very well during the entire course of the game. If SMC isn't shooting well they have no chance. If Arizona isn't shooting well they have some other ways of making a game interesting.

Don't get me wrong I think Arizona is very good.. but... I think Saint Mary's is very good at slow tempo games (which this will be) and that their D will give Arizona problems... Assuming they get by VCU (which they should)

seacatfan
03-14-2017, 01:07 PM
St. Mary's has exactly 2 decent wins this year. I would have liked to see them play some better teams in OOC or manage to beat GU once this year in order for me to believe they are as good as BPI and KenPom say they are. There is a stats geeks uprising going on.

hooter73
03-14-2017, 01:14 PM
SMC won't win two games. Just not set up for tourney teams. You put just one of their guys in foul trouble and they go into safety mode.

gonzagafan62
03-14-2017, 01:16 PM
I'm not seeing it either. St. Mary's got 3 cracks at GU, and while they hung in there for a while, ended up losing convincingly all 3 times. Arizona played fairly poorly at times against GU and still managed to make the game a lot closer than St. Mary's ever managed to. If Arizona plays like they did at Pauley Pavilion or the last 2 Pac 12 tourney games, this one isn't close.

Wait. Isn't a top 4 team supposed to beat a Top 25 team convincingly??????????

Kong-Kool-Aid
03-14-2017, 01:16 PM
St. Mary's has exactly 2 decent wins this year. I would have liked to see them play some better teams in OOC or manage to beat GU once this year in order for me to believe they are as good as BPI and KenPom say they are. There is a stats geeks uprising going on.

Sounds a lot like what most Big 5 Schools say about the Zags.

Gonzdb8
03-14-2017, 01:21 PM
BPI and KenPom say St Mary's is a better team than Arizona.. same analytics that say Gonzaga is the best team in the country.... Not trusting them?

even kenpom isn't perfect. if anybody out there thinks smc is as talented a team as arizona then i have some ocean front property a few miles outside of spokane i'd love to sell you. better yet, message me and let me know what kind of action you'll give me on this. i assume since smc is better than arizona you'll also give me points? didn't think so.

Gonzdb8
03-14-2017, 01:22 PM
Sounds a lot like what most Big 5 Schools say about the Zags.

the difference being that we can point to facts about who we played to dispute those claims. smc can point to....dayton?

Martin Centre Mad Man
03-14-2017, 01:25 PM
SMC is a tough matchup for any team that only has 48 hours to scout and prepare for their offensive style. They could get hot from three and pull off the biggest upset of the year.

If they do, the national talking heads will assert that Zona's loss to a mid-major invalidated Gonzaga's best win of the season, instead of validating Gonzaga's wins over the Gaels.

The more likely outcome is that Arizona's size and athleticism will overwhelm the Gaels as much as Gonzaga's did in our matchups with SMC.

RenoZag
03-14-2017, 01:25 PM
BPI and KenPom say St Mary's is a better team than Arizona.. same analytics that say Gonzaga is the best team in the country.... Not trusting them?

Nope.

Kong-Kool-Aid
03-14-2017, 01:31 PM
the difference being that we can point to facts about who we played to dispute those claims. smc can point to....dayton?

Early in the season... And we only beat Arizona because they were missing 2 of their best players right?

The point being the metrics (Both Kenpom AND the BPI) say they are a better team, I'm not saying they are or they aren't. But I could certainly see them beating Arizona.
They've got a style that matches up well with Arizona and excel at that pace of a game, Gonzaga beat the Gaels because we played at our pace.
Arizona won't be doing that.

adoptedzag
03-14-2017, 01:32 PM
Nope.

The confidence interval with teams that don't test themselves enough (GU included, thanks WCC) is VERY large, so the numbers might not lie, per se, but they might not tell the whole truth. I've been struggling with this re: GU all WCC season.

Kong-Kool-Aid
03-14-2017, 01:32 PM
Nope.


Gonzaga shouldn't be at the top?

Kong-Kool-Aid
03-14-2017, 01:38 PM
The confidence interval with teams that don't test themselves enough (GU included, thanks WCC) is VERY large, so the numbers might not lie, per se, but they might not tell the whole truth. I've been struggling with this re: GU all WCC season.

I agree, but I don't know if the numbers can just be simply dismissed "just beacause".

seacatfan
03-14-2017, 01:40 PM
Wait. Isn't a top 4 team supposed to beat a Top 25 team convincingly??????????

If that were true, Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina, etc. should have only lost 1 or 2 games each. A top 25 level team can beat a top 4 team on a given night. Any one game doesn't necessarily tell you that much, but Gonzaga thoroughly beat SMC three times. Plenty enough data to form an opinion.

seacatfan
03-14-2017, 01:40 PM
Sounds a lot like what most Big 5 Schools say about the Zags.

Gonzaga has a lot more than 2 decent wins this year.

RenoZag
03-14-2017, 01:45 PM
Gonzaga shouldn't be at the top?

Was responding to your query re: trusting Ken Pom and BPI analytics to confirm SMC is a better squad than AZ. Gaels may have better analytics but I would not select them to beat AZ in the NCAA Tourney which the cited article in the OP suggests could happen.

Shanachie
03-14-2017, 01:59 PM
right...cause the last thing we'd want to see in a regional final to advance to our first FF is a team that can't match up with us well at any position and that has lost to us 3x in a year by an average margin of 17 points. i'm reminded of the famous words of a great thinker who once exclaimed "please don't throw me in that briar patch."
its all academic anyhow because arizona is going to dismantle them.

Don't get me wrong - I don't expect St. Mary's to make it that far (even if they get by VCU and Arizona, they'd still have FSU or the like in the S16), and if they did, I think the Zags would handle them again. That said, I would just rather face a coach that has had 48 hours to prepare instead of one that's had 10 years. Plus, the downside of that one would be too much to bear. St. Mary's beating GU to advance to the Final Four? I wouldn't get out of bed for weeks...

adoptedzag
03-14-2017, 02:20 PM
Don't get me wrong - I don't expect St. Mary's to make it that far (even if they get by VCU and Arizona, they'd still have FSU or the like in the S16), and if they did, I think the Zags would handle them again. That said, I would just rather face a coach that has had 48 hours to prepare instead of one that's had 10 years. Plus, the downside of that one would be too much to bear. St. Mary's beating GU to advance to the Final Four? I wouldn't get out of bed for weeks...

Don't be so sure of that. If SMC gets by AZ, Florida St. plays really poorly outside of the sunshine state. Coupled with being in San Jose.... we might be in for WCC vs. WCC for a trip to the final 4.

Zagger
03-14-2017, 02:33 PM
In my bracket I have SMC beating Arizona. I feel everyone underestimates WCC teams, Arizona included, and it will be their undoing. That's my take anyway. I have to toss in some upsets in my bracket - since they always happen. It might as well be by a fellow WCC team :)

DixieZag
03-14-2017, 02:41 PM
I doubt that SMC beats AZ. I do think AZ will look right past them and get the bejeebus scared out of them b/c SMC is much better than AZ likely thinks.

In the end, yes, it's all back on Randy. Had they gone to Big 12 venue or ACC venue and played real tough, they'd be able to point to something indicating why the seeding is all wrong.

bartruff1
03-14-2017, 02:47 PM
That pretty much destroys any confidence I ever had in the numbers...BPI or RPI or whatever.....

lf the Gaels beat Arizona that will be a huge upset in the minds of the coaches/analysts that rank the teams, the Committee and the odds makers....if you believe it, you can make a great deal of money...I don't....

GU69
03-14-2017, 02:55 PM
In my bracket I have SMC beating Arizona.

Me too. However, I don't really expect it to happen; I just want SMC to win.

zagamatic
03-14-2017, 03:02 PM
IF, and that's a big IF, St Mary's can keep it a game about skill rather than athleticism, they can beat a lot of teams out there. Of course, Landale and company also need to stay out of foul trouble too. But hey, if St Mary's gets hot from 3, they can still win even not playing the style they normally need to.
Either way, from the bracket I see, if we reach the elite 8, I think that it's going to be a rematch with one of these 2 teams.

seacatfan
03-14-2017, 03:06 PM
Pretty sure there was a sekrit scrimmage between Arizona and SMC last year. The Gaels might not totally sneak up on Arizona and Miller might not be totally overlooking them, but go ahead and hang your hat on that if you want to.

DixieZag
03-14-2017, 03:09 PM
IF, and that's a big IF, St Mary's can keep it a game about skill rather than athleticism, they can beat a lot of teams out there. Of course, Landale and company also need to stay out of foul trouble too. But hey, if St Mary's gets hot from 3, they can still win even not playing the style they normally need to.
Either way, from the bracket I see, if we reach the elite 8, I think that it's going to be a rematch with one of these 2 teams.

This. We didn't play them once with him in the game the vast majority of the time. Probably due to the fact he's not used to going up against people bigger/stronger than him, which doesn't bode well

Reborn
03-14-2017, 03:27 PM
I have St Mary's beating Arizona. I would really love that. Big Time. Gol Gaels!!! And I think they can. Arizona did not look good to me against Oregon.

bartruff1
03-14-2017, 03:35 PM
55% is failing...that is a F....a monkey with a dart could do that...I will go with the odds makers...and yes I know they need to attract a nearly equal amount of money on both teams.....

Zags11
03-14-2017, 03:36 PM
Az wins by 15+ vs smc

Chicken Ball
03-14-2017, 03:37 PM
One thing one picks up perusing Kenpom's stats is that Arizona's weakness on defense is in defending 2 point shots, which presumably happen mostly in the post. SMC just happens to have one of the most efficient low-post scorers in the country in Landale.

And by the way, Kenpom says that outside of Gonzaga, Arizona has not played a tougher opponent than St. Mary's. If SMC played in the Pac-12, if the stats are to be believed, they would have had the best chance of winning the conference championship. So the argument can be turned around: Arizona hasn't played a team the calibre of SMC yet this year other than Gonzaga. Which, of course, they lost.

But yes, of course. The game has to be played and 55% is basically a flip of the coin. It wouldn't surprise me if SMC won; it wouldn't surprise me if Arizona won.

bartruff1
03-14-2017, 03:43 PM
Arizona played Oregon and UCLA among others on their home courts...and they are not as tough as St Mary's ???

Well maybe your right, they are up by 15 at the half over some New Orleans Community College...

Chicken Ball
03-14-2017, 03:48 PM
Arizona played Oregon and UCLA among others on their home courts...and they are not as tough as St Mary's ???

That's what the stats say.

Chicken Ball
03-14-2017, 03:50 PM
Arizona played Oregon and UCLA among others on their home courts...and they are not as tough as St Mary's ???

Well maybe your right, they are up by 15 at the half over some New Orleans Community College...

I'll make it worse, too. According to Kenpom, Landale is the best player Arizona will have faced all year, too.

Markburn1
03-14-2017, 03:51 PM
One thing one picks up perusing Kenpom's stats is that Arizona's weakness on defense is in defending 2 point shots, which presumably happen mostly in the post. SMC just happens to have one of the most efficient low-post scorers in the country in Landale.

And by the way, Kenpom says that outside of Gonzaga, Arizona has not played a tougher opponent than St. Mary's. If SMC played in the Pac-12, if the stats are to be believed, they would have had the best chance of winning the conference championship. So the argument can be turned around: Arizona hasn't played a team the calibre of SMC yet this year other than Gonzaga. Which, of course, they lost.

But yes, of course. The game has to be played and 55% is basically a flip of the coin. It wouldn't surprise me if SMC won; it wouldn't surprise me if Arizona won.

55% winning in Vegas makes you a very rich man.

bartruff1
03-14-2017, 03:52 PM
73% is a D...I will stay with the monkey....

bartruff1
03-14-2017, 03:55 PM
:lmao:
I'll make it worse, too. According to Kenpom, Landale is the best player Arizona will have faced all year, too.

CDC84
03-14-2017, 03:56 PM
VCU and SMC is going to be very entertaining. Non-stop 24/7 press vs. one of the slowest tempos in the nation (but very efficient).

It would be nice to see the Gaels win this game.

bartruff1
03-14-2017, 03:59 PM
55% winning in Vegas makes you a very rich man.

Not good for airplane landings...

mattydog73
03-14-2017, 03:59 PM
If SMC wins their first game and faces AZ, then they would do well to learn from losing to Zags the last 3 times. GU and AZ are VERY similar teams and present SMC the same type of challenge.

Athletic guards that do well at getting to the rim and scoring from the outside. Good size underneath with a potent pick and roll game when utilized. Balanced offensively (AZ with 4 scorers avg dbl figures with 2 more just shy of it at 9.7, 9.2 per game.)

Stifling defense that runs shooters off the 3 pt line, limits teams to mostly contested shots, protects the rim, gets stops when really needed. Controls pace/tempo of the game.

Markburn1
03-14-2017, 04:04 PM
Not good for airplane landings...

Definitely need some context. Risk/Reward and all that....

MileHigh
03-14-2017, 04:10 PM
55% winning in Vegas makes you a very rich man.

I dont know what you consider rich, but if you won 55% of your bets, you would have to wager 40 million dollars in a multitude of bets to earn a milion dollars in profit. Becasue of the vig, most big time gamblers are looking at 65% or more winning percentage over time to consider themselves doing well........and yes, i am a recovering degenerate gambler!

MileHigh
03-14-2017, 04:15 PM
I guess I dont see what some of you all see in St. marys. They are a real good team, with a very effective system for thier personnel, but not in the same class this year as the top teams in the west ( Gonzaga, Arizona, West Virginia) I have only watched them 3 times this year (the zag beatdowns) but I didnt see anything in those games to make me think they could beat an Arizona team at full strength

Zagger
03-14-2017, 04:16 PM
I'm hearing all the rhymes & reasons SMC loses ..... but, still going to predict an upset. SMC is pretty good and if BYU can beat the Zags in the Kennel then SMC can beat Arizona. After watching the spanking Oregon gave Arizona it took a goodly amount of the magic from what I felt Arizona had. SMC is methodical and they only have 4 losses - 3 of which are to GU. SMC has played good basketball this year. I think they have something to prove and will be more ready for Arizona than Arizona is for them ..... and assuming VCU doesn't get hot, hot, hot. Ain't March fun?!?!

U Zig, I Zag
03-14-2017, 04:23 PM
SeaCat is in a tough spot here, on a WCC board. Of course most of us are gonna root for smc if they get the matchup with AZ. But not one game a season makes. I think the smc gu comparison is there: 3 games with the same rosters. Home away vegas.

Really isn't there with AZ and GU other than the game quite a bit ago and has been pointed out endlessly, AZ has more guys to draw from now vs then. A rematch is a ways off, if it even happens this year.

Re: SMC - they need to get by VCU first. But I don't think they match up with AZ at all, which is advantage SMC in my opinion.

Not SeaCat so much, but others (here and online elsewhere) have the impression that AZ could just overpower smc with athletes. Perhaps so. But in the tourney, the last number of years gu seems to handle strong athletic big 5 teams in the early rounds with decent success.

TheZagPhish
03-14-2017, 04:30 PM
I guess I dont see what some of you all see in St. marys. They are a real good team, with a very effective system for thier personnel, but not in the same class this year as the top teams in the west ( Gonzaga, Arizona, West Virginia) I have only watched them 3 times this year (the zag beatdowns) but I didnt see anything in those games to make me think they could beat an Arizona team at full strength

Those three games against the Zags are not wholly indicative of the Gaels' performance. I think the Zags are especially effective against SMC due to some local variables that are not present in the chemistry with other teams. Whenever the Gaels are playing teams other than Gonzaga, they're much more disciplined, on plan and less likely to get shaken.

Markburn1
03-14-2017, 04:30 PM
I dont know what you consider rich, but if you won 55% of your bets, you would have to wager 40 million dollars in a multitude of bets to earn a milion dollars in profit. Becasue of the vig, most big time gamblers are looking at 65% or more winning percentage over time to consider themselves doing well........and yes, i am a recovering degenerate gambler!

52.4% is the magic break even number. If you are fortunate enough to be in the 55% range you are in the elite category of professional gamblers. Good luck.

beaverzag
03-14-2017, 04:50 PM
If it happens, I'll pull for the gaels, but I didn't pick them in my bracket.

rennis
03-14-2017, 04:57 PM
That pretty much destroys any confidence I ever had in the numbers...BPI or RPI or whatever.....

lf the Gaels beat Arizona that will be a huge upset in the minds of the coaches/analysts that rank the teams, the Committee and the odds makers....if you believe it, you can make a great deal of money...I don't....

I believe you CAN have confidence in the numbers but also remember they are only a predictor of outcomes, and even KPom admits there will be plenty of games in the tournament that will not turn out how his stats suggest they should.

Two other things to consider in this: I think SMC is #15 in his ratings and Arizona is #20. That's very close. The other thing I can't prove but suspect could be true is that SMC's ratings have a much greater probability for error than Arizona. Even Ken himself said (when being asked about Gonzaga in a TV interview a few weeks back) that our #1 rating was deserved but our position on the top rung was interesting... and that of all the teams in the top 10 GU was the most difficult to predict for NCAA tournament success because Gonzaga had the "widest bars" of any team. I don't know for sure and I'm no stats expert but could "the bars" be the probability for error in the efficiency calculations based on strength of schedule?

If that's the case, then sure as heck SMC has some wiiiiiiiiiiiide bars if Gonzaga does!

Gonzaga and SMC also both suffer from having very few games in the B Tier in his statistics. He has said this is an issue when comparing GU to teams from the BCS conferences. Gonzaga has done very well in playing teams 1-50. But had very few chances to play teams 50-100 and beat up on teams >100. SMC's problem with that is even deeper.

the good news for SMC is that the P12's bottom half sucked this year and AZ basically had the same problem.

seacatfan
03-14-2017, 05:15 PM
If you just blindly accept that St. Mary's is better than UCLA and Oregon because KenPom says so...don't even have a response.

So...how to explain the loss to Texas-Arlington? I know Arizona didn't lose to anybody like that all year, pretty sure neither did UCLA or Oregon. And that was in Moraga.

Again, SMC simply does not have any wins over anything remotely close to an elite team to put even the slightest bit of proof into the pudding.

Also, how does SMC defend Trier, Alkins, Allen and Markannen? All 4 are on the court together fairly often. SMC simply couldn't deal w/ Gonzaga's guards this year (and I'm not just referring to NWG), I see similar problems against Arizona.

rennis
03-14-2017, 05:41 PM
If you just blindly accept that St. Mary's is better than UCLA and Oregon because KenPom says so...don't even have a response.
.

I don't think this was directed at me but no...I don't think SMC is better than any of the top 3 out of the P12. I think they're more efficient and a very good team but they don't have the talent to beat the P12 trio on a neutral court.

krozman
03-14-2017, 05:50 PM
Guys, you can throw as many numbers at this you want. The simple fact is that if we have to play St. Marys again it will be the most stressful experience ever because the loss will be 10x worse than the UCLA AMMO loss and we'll be haunted by that for decades. My head tells me we want that game over an AZ team. My heart can't handle the stress.

Kong-Kool-Aid
03-14-2017, 05:59 PM
Guys, you can throw as many numbers at this you want. The simple fact is that if we have to play St. Marys again it will be the most stressful experience ever because the loss will be 10x worse than the UCLA AMMO loss and we'll be haunted by that for decades. My head tells me we want that game over an AZ team. My heart can't handle the stress.

If we are picking teams we would like to face in the Elite Eight, count me in for North Dakota.

Goshzagit
03-14-2017, 06:43 PM
Don't get me wrong - I don't expect St. Mary's to make it that far (even if they get by VCU and Arizona, they'd still have FSU or the like in the S16), and if they did, I think the Zags would handle them again. That said, I would just rather face a coach that has had 48 hours to prepare instead of one that's had 10 years. Plus, the downside of that one would be too much to bear. St. Mary's beating GU to advance to the Final Four? I wouldn't get out of bed for weeks...

I give SMC a 1 or 2% chance of beating Arizona, but there's a chance.

No one, I mean no one can defend Markannen on St Marys. They cant contain J3, let alone Laurie.

I do think SMC can control tempo, but Zona's guards are relentless and will draw fouls on Landale helping.

Simmons, Alkins, Allen, Trier are all considered the best driving guards in their class.

Rahon, Naar, & Hermanson will be overrun & overwhelmed on defense.

Too many aggressive slashers.

Arizona is the best overall team, size & strength & talent & defense, in the NCAA this season.

My head says they beat UNC to win it all this year, my heart says they lose in E8 vs Zags.

St Marys cannot contain Arizona. Just not possible.

They will need to hit 12+ 3's & a Landale double double to have a chance.

I think they beat VCU but will struggle with their raw athleticism at every position.

LongIslandZagFan
03-14-2017, 06:47 PM
SMC can beat Zona... I have SMC/GU E8 game in one of my brackets.

JMHO... Zags are in the heads of SMC with the way the beat them all three times... I see a 4th win should it happen.

But I'd guess that Zona wins a tight game in the end against the Gaels.

maynard g krebs
03-14-2017, 07:33 PM
Arizona played Oregon and UCLA among others on their home courts...and they are not as tough as St Mary's ???

Well maybe your right, they are up by 15 at the half over some New Orleans Community College...

Arizona was down 64-27 midway through the second half at Oregon, when the Ducks had their team intact. They clearly quit in that game when the Ducks got hot.

zagsfanforlife
03-14-2017, 08:05 PM
It's march. Any good team can beat a very good team. Smc has the shooters and I have seen AZ go through enough dull phases to think it'll be a competitive game. Who wins? Probably AZ but IF landale can stay out of foul trouble gaels got a chance. When he was on the court vs GU it was a nearly even matchup......

zagsfanforlife
03-14-2017, 08:07 PM
I give SMC a 1 or 2% chance of beating Arizona, but there's a chance.

No one, I mean no one can defend Markannen on St Marys. They cant contain J3, let alone Laurie.

I do think SMC can control tempo, but Zona's guards are relentless and will draw fouls on Landale helping.

Simmons, Alkins, Allen, Trier are all considered the best driving guards in their class.

Rahon, Naar, & Hermanson will be overrun & overwhelmed on defense.

Too many aggressive slashers.

Arizona is the best overall team, size & strength & talent & defense, in the NCAA this season.

My head says they beat UNC to win it all this year, my heart says they lose in E8 vs Zags.

St Marys cannot contain Arizona. Just not possible.

They will need to hit 12+ 3's & a Landale double double to have a chance.

I think they beat VCU but will struggle with their raw athleticism at every position.

1 or 2 %? Come on. South Dakota state over GU maybe has that percentage. Not SMC who is a very good team and well coached over AZ.

raise the zag
03-14-2017, 08:26 PM
1 or 2 %? Come on. South Dakota state over GU maybe has that percentage. Not SMC who is a very good team and well coached over AZ.

I feel its a horrendous match-up. If SMC was playing Duke, maybe. Or Oregon. UCLA. Just not Zona. Too athletic of guards, combined with not one big, but two. I've been saying it all along, Arizona and Gonzaga (and Louisville to lesser extent) are the ONLY teams in college hoops with legitimate BIGS (7'-footers with game), and Top-100 guards across the board.

Its one or the other with the rest of the field, even Duke or UNC or Kentucky. No one has the balance of front court and back court like Zags & Zona, again with the size and guard production.

I will be rooting for the Gaels, you can count on it.

raise the zag
03-14-2017, 09:01 PM
speaking of Arizona, didn't Gonzaga zone for much of the game?

Haven't seen much of it since…but it worked wonders vs their penetrating guards, at least for 3/4th's of the game.

We have a really dynamic zone, esp with Tillie & Collins in the game.

Wonder if we'll see some zone this Tourney? I would have to think we'll need it at some point -- foul trouble or getting beat to the rim.

We used it vs Iowa St, Florida (a lot), Arizona, and some vs Tennessee (not as good that game).

DixieZag
03-14-2017, 10:25 PM
If you just blindly accept that St. Mary's is better than UCLA and Oregon because KenPom says so...don't even have a response.

So...how to explain the loss to Texas-Arlington? I know Arizona didn't lose to anybody like that all year, pretty sure neither did UCLA or Oregon. And that was in Moraga.

Again, SMC simply does not have any wins over anything remotely close to an elite team to put even the slightest bit of proof into the pudding.

Also, how does SMC defend Trier, Alkins, Allen and Markannen? All 4 are on the court together fairly often. SMC simply couldn't deal w/ Gonzaga's guards this year (and I'm not just referring to NWG), I see similar problems against Arizona.

I think you're right, only you missed one; SMC can't keep Londale in the game against other bigs. If they can keep him in the game, it would make a big difference, but we haven't seen it yet.

The one X-Factor that makes me think that they could maybe keep it close is that SMC does have the ability to hit 12 3s, from deep. But, that would have to be high percentage 3s, like 12-17 or so.

And, there's the slight chance AZ totally overlooks SMC as they did on a few occasions throughout the year, letting teams get closer than they should be. I know b/c you told us about them, angrily. :)

I don't think SMC has much of a chance, but I'll cheer for them.

seacatfan
03-14-2017, 10:33 PM
And, there's the slight chance AZ totally overlooks SMC as they did on a few occasions throughout the year, letting teams get closer than they should be. I know b/c you told us about them, angrily. :)


Ha! Well, I don't know if it was overlooking teams, or just playing badly. After the big win at Pauley there was a fairly painful readjustment process after Trier was eligible. I hope they have that completely out of their system. When Arizona is playing badly, certainly St. Mary's or various other teams could beat them. But if they are playing like they did in the Pac 12 Tourney, I think the chances are fairly slim of losing to SMC.

edited--Oregon was 6-22 behind the arc and UCLA 4-25. Both are good shooting teams. If UA could hold SMC to something similar...

Zagsker
03-15-2017, 04:41 AM
I guess I dont see what some of you all see in St. marys. They are a real good team, with a very effective system for thier personnel, but not in the same class this year as the top teams in the west ( Gonzaga, Arizona, West Virginia) I have only watched them 3 times this year (the zag beatdowns) but I didnt see anything in those games to make me think they could beat an Arizona team at full strength

ditto

Zagsker
03-15-2017, 04:44 AM
Those three games against the Zags are not wholly indicative of the Gaels' performance. I think the Zags are especially effective against SMC due to some local variables that are not present in the chemistry with other teams. Whenever the Gaels are playing teams other than Gonzaga, they're much more disciplined, on plan and less likely to get shaken.

So they play better when they face talent lesser than theirs...got it.

CarolinaZagFan
03-15-2017, 05:25 AM
I don't think they even get a chance. VCU is a nightmare matchup for SMC.

Coach Crazy
03-15-2017, 05:33 AM
the difference being that we can point to facts about who we played to dispute those claims. smc can point to....dayton?

Actually, we can point to the efficiency of SMC. Do we know how many games the 'Cats won using sub-60 possessions?


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Goshzagit
03-15-2017, 05:49 AM
I don't think they even get a chance. VCU is a nightmare matchup for SMC.

yes & no.

I compare this game to when St Mary's played Richmond and Villanova in the 2010 NCAA's.

Richmond was uber-athletic at every position and liked to run and create havoc. St Mary's didn't stifle them, but they sure made them look like they've never seen team basketball or true 5 vs 5 before.

St Mary's had Mickey McConnell, Clint Steindl, Delly, & Samhan.

SMC schooled Richmond that day. They were a 10 seed, and arguably less deep or athletic as they are this year.

Two days later, they smacked #2 seed Villanova around -- Samhan scored 32 pts and SMC hit shots and played balanced, efficient, tempo basketball. Sliced and diced their defense.

Some would argue they beat the two most purely athletic teams in the Tourney that year, by staying disciplined, moving the ball, unstoppable ball screens(vs anyone not named GU) and controlling the tempo.

Richmond is in VCU's conference…and Daytons, which SMC already beat on the road. Up by 20 all game until final 5 mins.

St Mary's wasn't able to really stop Villanova or Richmond from driving to the rim with their athletes -- both scored a ton of points -- but St Mary's scored more.

Its what I think will happen vs VCU, as long as Landale plays 25+ mins.

All that said, Arizona wayyy too big/balanced up front at two positions for SMC to defend, at all. Not to mention their huge guards. Zona by 20+, but I do think Gaels advance to play them in Rd of 32.

ps. can't figure out why they don't play Fitzner more? He only rec 15 mpg, but rarely misses a shot, and plays fearless and is a match-up nightmare. 6'10" and can shoot the 3pt (career 43% 3pt with over 235 attempts), has some ok post moves, and rebounds a bit. I'd like to see him used more in post season. Like Pineau's hustle but seems awfully foul prone, can't stretch the defense, and gets smoked on defense, at least vs us.

Kong-Kool-Aid
03-15-2017, 06:13 AM
You guys discount Saint Mary's because Gonzaga has their number.

They are a good team, I've watched them a few times this year when not playing Gonzaga and they are efficient and methodical. When they can get the game to be played at their pace they can play with anyone, and Arizona will not be pushing the tempo.

They play the pick and roll very well and Jock is probably the best big man they've had and the Gaels most definitely can hit from range. I'm not saying it's a guarantee but this is going to be a heck of a lot closer than a few of you think.

TexasZagFan
03-15-2017, 06:23 AM
You guys discount Saint Mary's because Gonzaga has their number.

They are a good team, I've watched them a few times this year when not playing Gonzaga and they are efficient and methodical. When they can get the game to be played at their pace they can play with anyone, and Arizona will not be pushing the tempo.

They play the pick and roll very well and Jock is probably the best big man they've had and the Gaels most definitely can hit from range. I'm not saying it's a guarantee but this is going to be a heck of a lot closer than a few of you think.

What's VCU's 3 point defense %? IMO, that's a key stat. SMC likes to jack it up from 3, we did a good job of not only limiting their opportunities, but we contested most of those shots. Rahon likes to take it into the paint, then kick it out to Hermanson/others for an uncontested three. We did a good job of frustrating them in all 3 games.

bartruff1
03-15-2017, 06:36 AM
Arizona is a better defensive team than Gonzaga...regardless of any numbers....remember they got their numbers in the Conference of Champions...if they play, they are just going to beat the snot out of the Gaels even if they play their C game...

tummydoc
03-15-2017, 08:05 AM
Arizona is a better defensive team than Gonzaga...regardless of any numbers....remember they got their numbers in the Conference of Champions...if they play, they are just going to beat the snot out of the Gaels even if they play their C game...
Wow, #2 defense vs #31 on kenpom. Az better than zags defense.... What are you smoking??

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Once and Future Zag
03-15-2017, 08:43 AM
Actually, we can point to the efficiency of SMC. Do we know how many games the 'Cats won using sub-60 possessions?


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Arizona went 1 for 1 for games with 60 possessions or less.

gonzagafan62
03-15-2017, 09:12 AM
Arizona is a better defensive team than Gonzaga...regardless of any numbers....remember they got their numbers in the Conference of Champions...if they play, they are just going to beat the snot out of the Gaels even if they play their C game...

It's all adjusted for SOS Bart. This is what many don't know. It's extremely tougher to get the numbers zags are getting

zaguarxj
03-15-2017, 09:13 AM
Wow, #2 defense vs #31 on kenpom. Az better than zags defense.... What are you smoking??

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I was going to respond to bartruff1's post too but my sarcasm detector started buzzing. One of us needs to recalibrate.

seacatfan
03-15-2017, 09:33 AM
I haven't looked at numbers for adjusted pace or number of possessions, but I can tell you Arizona generally plays fairly deliberate on offense. If they can get runouts they'll take them but otherwise play fairly slow.

Kong-Kool-Aid
03-15-2017, 09:37 AM
I haven't looked at numbers for adjusted pace or number of possessions, but I can tell you Arizona generally plays fairly deliberate on offense. If they can get runouts they'll take them but otherwise play fairly slow.

Which plays into SMCs hands.

Kong-Kool-Aid
03-15-2017, 09:37 AM
Arizona is a better defensive team than Gonzaga...regardless of any numbers....remember they got their numbers in the Conference of Champions...if they play, they are just going to beat the snot out of the Gaels even if they play their C game...

Bill!? Is that you???

bartruff1
03-15-2017, 09:45 AM
Well I have not looked at the process the number crunchers use to "adjust"...

but I did spend some 40 years working as a Civil Engineer so I know a little bit about math....

I suspect Pomroy and the others use some sort of regression analysis to adjust the numbers to a typical or common D1 Team....

and that is where the value judgements are made and that is where the adjustment is sensitive to a whole bunch of variables and becomes more precise than accurate....

I could care less what his numbers say...Zona has played against much better teams in the Pac than the Gaels have...

I think the numbers say The Gael's defense is comparable to Virginia's....nonsense..

If they play, I will have more faith in Vegas than Pomeroy...

In the end, Calculus is just about counting vectors...valuing them is the difficult (art? ) part.

zaguarxj
03-15-2017, 11:32 AM
Well I have not looked at the process the number crunchers use to "adjust"...

but I did spend some 40 years working as a Civil Engineer so I know a little bit about math....

I suspect Pomroy and the others use some sort of regression analysis to adjust the numbers to a typical or common D1 Team....

and that is where the value judgements are made and that is where the adjustment is sensitive to a whole bunch of variables and becomes more precise than accurate....

I could care less what his numbers say...Zona has played against much better teams in the Pac than the Gaels have...

I think the numbers say The Gael's defense is comparable to Virginia's....nonsense..

If they play, I will have more faith in Vegas than Pomeroy...

In the end, Calculus is just about counting vectors...valuing them is the difficult (art? ) part.

* adjusts sarcasm detector *

So you're going to dismiss the Gaels with the same type of criticism that we Zag fans have had to endure all these years? Ugh...

75Zag
03-15-2017, 11:41 AM
Arizona by 16 and going away.

See you in SLC - and San Jose - Go Bulldogs!

Zag_Dad
03-15-2017, 11:45 AM
I could care less what his numbers say...Zona has played against much better teams in the Pac than the Gaels have....

I'm not a numbers guy (went to law school), but I've watched quite a few of the Pac-12 teams this year and I'm not convinced that Zona has played against a significant number of much better teams than has SMC. Other than the top three Pac-12 teams in that conference, I just don't see a ton of top notch talent. UW didn't finish last in that conference??? How can that be?

mgadfly
03-15-2017, 11:59 AM
Cal is one of the slower tempo teams in the Pac 12, and I'd pick SMC to beat them fairly easy. Arizona didn't exactly dominate those match ups as Cal kept things very interesting.

I was at the Pac-12 tourney and Zona is playing great. But SMC is a veteran team that will not run like UCLA or Oregon (or even Colorado). I'm guessing SMC keeps it interesting and low scoring. In that type of game a couple of lucky bounces can change the entire equation.

ZagLawGrad
03-15-2017, 12:11 PM
AZ beats the Gaels if they meet.

caduceus
03-15-2017, 12:11 PM
KenPom has SMC's odds of beating VCU at 71% (by a score of 65-59). Nate Silver has SMC with 74% winning odds. Vegas has SMC -4.0. Of course, these are only probabilities, but I'd say they have a pretty decent chance to win their first game.

Currently KenPom predict has SMC with a 55% winning chance over AZ (62-61), tempo 56.

I don't know who will win, but I suspect SMC losing by 20 is highly unlikely in either game, particularly with the pace that SMC plays.

maynard g krebs
03-15-2017, 01:03 PM
SMC got overwhelmed by the interior size and athleticism of Baylor a few years ago, because they could do nothing with their post game. Ristic and Maarkenen are far from dominant interior defenders; remember Karno having his way in the post one on one? Landale can do the same if Miller plays him straight up as he did Karno. If he changes strategy and doubles the post, SMC gets a 3 attempt that's probably open.

On the other end, SMC is very good at packing it in and keeping the other team in front of them. They don't give up much that's easy. They'll focus on stopping dribble penetration because Zona isn't especially good at moving the ball, hence all the trouble they've had v zones.

UCLA and Oregon were both wounded in the Pac tourney.

Zona could get hot and blow them out, but I think a close game is more likely. GU is a veteran team, and Zona is half freshmen, albeit talented as anyone.

Zagceo
03-15-2017, 01:11 PM
SMC got overwhelmed by the interior size and athleticism of Baylor a few years ago, because they could do nothing with their post game. Ristic and Maarkenen are far from dominant interior defenders; remember Karno having his way in the post one on one? Landale can do the same if Miller plays him straight up as he did Karno. If he changes strategy and doubles the post, SMC gets a 3 attempt that's probably open.

On the other end, SMC is very good at packing it in and keeping the other team in front of them. They don't give up much that's easy. They'll focus on stopping dribble penetration because Zona isn't especially good at moving the ball, hence all the trouble they've had v zones.

UCLA and Oregon were both wounded in the Pac tourney.

Zona could get hot and blow them out, but I think a close game is more likely.GU is a veteran team, and Zona is half freshmen, albeit talented as anyone.

good points.....what really surprised me....AZ poor FT shooting under pressure from top FT shooters on team. Youth + pressure

Zagricultural
03-15-2017, 04:15 PM
Pac-12 is laying an egg in the NIT. I know it isn't conclusive of anything, but still is worth noticing.

Kong-Kool-Aid
03-15-2017, 04:20 PM
* adjusts sarcasm detector *

So you're going to dismiss the Gaels with the same type of criticism that we Zag fans have had to endure all these years? Ugh...

Wait, he was being serious?

Yeah, I agree with you.. it's mind boggling.

jazzdelmar
03-15-2017, 04:29 PM
RB outcoaches Seannie. At one tenth the price.