PDA

View Full Version : KenPom Blog: 2017 NCAA tournament forecast



caduceus
03-13-2017, 06:47 PM
Very, very favorable numbers for the Zags.

http://kenpom.com/blog/2017-ncaa-tournament-forecast/

Zagceo
03-13-2017, 06:51 PM
Wichita State numbers look good for a 10th seed......only victory against field is Jack Rabbits

gonzagafan62
03-13-2017, 06:53 PM
Wichita State numbers look good for a 10th seed......only victory against field is Jack Rabbits

They're obviously better than a 10 IMO. Ken Pom rates them #10 in country I believe

VinnyZag
03-13-2017, 07:34 PM
West Virginia is the seventh pick to win the title and has the second best odds in the west regional of making the final four.

Meanwhile, Kenpom.com gives St. Mary's better odds of winning the title than UCLA.

caduceus
03-13-2017, 08:21 PM
FiveThirtyEight (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-march-madness-predictions/) gives SMC the highest odds for a 7-seed. In fact, better odds than all the 3-seeds except UCLA, better than all the 4-seeds except WVU, better than all the 5-seeds except Virginia, and all the 6-seeds and beyond.

I think the folks in the press are seriously underestimating the Gaels' chance of a good tourney run. I really wish they weren't in our bracket (edit: to root for our WCC brethren, not because I think they'll beat us should it come to that).

rennis
03-13-2017, 08:33 PM
I will happily eat crow for this if needed, but: No way in H-E-Double-Hockeysticks SMC is getting a win over Arizona if they get by VCU. Stats mean a lot but they don't mean everything and SMC built a stat foundation on pretty weak competition. I have watched SMC play a lot of ball and watched the wildcats do the same. Arizona will beat the Gaels by 20.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

RenoZag
03-13-2017, 08:36 PM
WaPo article on "Best Bets to Win It All" cites KenPom metrics and ranks GU at the top of the heap

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/sports/wp/2017/03/12/the-best-bets-to-win-march-madness-2017/?tid=a_inl&utm_term=.bd9b82a2cb21

If only they played the games on paper. . .

CDC84
03-13-2017, 09:13 PM
It seems as if every year there is one oddity at kenpom, and this year's oddity is West Virginia. They are nowhere close to being one of the top 5 teams in the nation. My sister is a WVU grad, and she said that if the Zags lose to them, they should be ashamed. Yes, they have that full court press, but it's cover-up.....they have nowhere near the talent that GU does and that several Big 12 teams do. GU would have almost a full week to prep for that press if the matchup happened. And we all know Few's record vs. Huggins. Notre Dame should've been seeded two spots ahead of them. They are that much better.

gonzagafan62
03-13-2017, 09:17 PM
It seems as if every year there is one oddity at kenpom, and this year's oddity is West Virginia. They are nowhere close to being one of the top 5 teams in the nation. My sister is a WVU grad, and she said that if the Zags lose to them, they should be ashamed. Yes, they have that full court press, but it's cover-up.....they have nowhere near the talent that GU does and that several Big 12 teams do. GU would have almost a full week to prep for that press if the matchup happened. And we all know Few's record vs. Huggins. Notre Dame should've been seeded two spots ahead of them. They are that much better.

I've never feared a Huggins WVU team.

caduceus
03-13-2017, 09:18 PM
I've never feared a Huggins WVU team.

Yeah, especially out west. We beat them right in their own back yard a while back.

Tmac5360
03-13-2017, 09:44 PM
St Mary's with better odds than Arizona! That is surprising.