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View Full Version : Zags Are a #1 Seed But I Still Doubt It



Zag4Hire
03-11-2017, 04:26 PM
I have been tracking the #1 seed dialogue for a while since the WCC championship (blogs, cable sites, back alleys, etc.). I still think Zags get jobbed and get a #2 yet still out West where some people say whatever but I disagree. Zags are eyeballing FF or more and the road is much different (at least hypothetically). A few quick takes:

1) Looking at Top 10 most accurate blogs (Lunardi sags way behind) and they all have Zags as a #1. This is as of AM today.
2) Heck if Iowa State pulls it out here and Arizona wins, Zags beat both of those teams straight up so I think that is a huge pop there.
3) I am looking at the 8/9 seeds and not so much 7/10s and can't understand if I am excited or terrified for Zags to get a possible tilt against Wich State. Easy to say but this team is a lot different than last #1 seed and the Wich State team is also much different. I think Zags thrash them.
4) I think Zags' rotation is a big strength. Although he hasn't really adjusted, Collins can't get into foul trouble and shrink big rotation. Melson is a godsend of the bench.
5) I think this team has been eyeing postseason for a while. If they play their game, they are a really tough out.

Zag4Hire
03-11-2017, 05:23 PM
Bilas just hinted if Duke wins ACC Tourney Championship, they should be in conversation as a #1 and possibly bump Gonzaga (he totally mumbled it). Jay Williams just said "Why is Gonzaga a lock as #1 seed?". Duke people...Duke.

jpn17
03-11-2017, 05:29 PM
The reason I worry is because the committee still uses the antiquated RPI as their basis for reference. The #1 Sagarin and Kempom rankings and #2 BPI (I'll go ahead and throw in the soon to be #2 AP and Coaches poll rankings as well) don't matter because Gonzaga is somewhere between #8-10 in RPI depending on which source you use.

TexasZagFan
03-11-2017, 05:48 PM
I'm almost at the point where I'm hoping for a 2 seed. Talk about heading into the Dance with a really big chip on the shoulder. However, the committee chairman was fairly emphatic about the Zags three weeks ago. I don't think the loss to BYU is enough to knock them off, not the way they dispatched SMC for the third time.

Birddog
03-11-2017, 06:04 PM
I'm almost at the point where I'm hoping for a 2 seed. Talk about heading into the Dance with a really big chip on the shoulder. .

I'm already there.

jazzdelmar
03-11-2017, 06:18 PM
Isn't it amazing how fervent the Duke announcers are though? Like life or death. No other school seems as obsessed. End of the day, difference between 1 and 2 is largely cosmetic. But for Bile and Mumbles and Battiee and Seth and .....on and on...it's chokingly important.

caduceus
03-11-2017, 06:32 PM
Traditionally, this is "hand wringing week" for Zag Nation. There's usually the big high of the WCC Tourney and Championship, followed by a full week of being completely out of the spotlight during the Power Conferences' finals. The pundits love controversy and try to build the drama by making outlandish statements to rile up the fanbases. Those statements are usually about whatever is in front of their eyeballs at the moment (meaning not Zags right now). It happens every year.

I'll be surprised if the Zags have fallen on the S-curve since the preselection announcement weeks ago. They absolutely took care of business in terms of winning their conference AND tournament, went undefeated in non-conference, and very nearly so in conference. I don't think any of the other top teams have really fared better since that time, and many have stumbled. If anything, the Zags have solidified their standing by reaching the peak of KenPom and most other statistical analyses.

That said, the Zags RPI would be around #3 without that loss to BYU. Unfortunate because there would be zero doubt about their seed had they not dropped that one.

Hoping for a 1-seed, but I don't care that much about it. I'm more focused on the matchups and locations that are in their path, and really hope they come out guns blazing with their next tipoff. A few beatdowns and the Zags will be very much back in the conversation on CBS and ESPN.

Zag4Hire
03-11-2017, 06:33 PM
Isn't it amazing how fervent the Duke announcers are though? Like life or death. No other school seems as obsessed. End of the day, difference between 1 and 2 is largely cosmetic. But for Bile and Mumbles and Battiee and Seth and .....on and on...it's chokingly important.

Oh my gosh Jazz. Right on point. These guys do everything to try to shake their colors during most of the season because they know they are marked men then POOF! All bets are off. None of these guys were legitimate NBA players and I can think of a few players outside of Tobacco Road who offer a lot better insight then these guys.

I am getting tired of hearing it from my Syracuse/Florida State/Kansas friends. Let's go Zags! Just win the whole thing, shun the White House on the appearance, and make history.

MDABE80
03-11-2017, 06:38 PM
Bilas just hinted if Duke wins ACC Tourney Championship, they should be in conversation as a #1 and possibly bump Gonzaga (he totally mumbled it). Jay Williams just said "Why is Gonzaga a lock as #1 seed?". Duke people...Duke.

Yes he did and so did his sidekick with the bum leg. Both Duke grads and players. After a season of praise, also when Duke was losing games, for the Zags, he's changed his tune....almost being a lobbyist for Duke . Williams isn't far behind. Seems they've decided on "who is the best team" not the RPI, KenPom data, Bpi, etc. Duke is playing fantastic ball right now..as good if not better than any in the country. This is the Duke team that began the season predicted as a Nat Champ.
Reality intervened though.

There is no doubt our record and our metrics are easily good enough to be a no 1 seed. May not turn out though. Politics, CBS, etc may reach in. Does it matter? Not so much in we stay at the 2. Oregon might have a say so in all this but , to be honest, if you're not UCLA and your team is isolated to the NW, you won't get the attention from the East Coast power cabal. I'm ok with a 2.

But find another forum for "shun the white house routine" please. We left politics in the room that was deleted.

DixieZag
03-11-2017, 06:45 PM
I'm already there.

Torn.

They deserve the respect after the year they had.

Or

They would be a Zoo-break after the first jump.

doctorzag
03-11-2017, 06:50 PM
Oh my gosh Jazz. Right on point. These guys do everything to try to shake their colors during most of the season because they know they are marked men then POOF! All bets are off. None of these guys were legitimate NBA players and I can think of a few players outside of Tobacco Road who offer a lot better insight then these guys.

I am getting tired of hearing it from my Syracuse/Florida State/Kansas friends. Let's go Zags! Just win the whole thing, shun the White House on the appearance, and make history.

Why shun the White House??

Zag4Hire
03-11-2017, 06:53 PM
Yes he did and so did his sidekick with the bum leg. Both Duke grads and players. After a season of praise, also when Duke was losing games, for the Zags, he's changed his tune....almost being a lobbyist for Duke . Williams isn't far behind. Seems they've decided on "who is the best team" not the RPI, KenPom data, Bpi, etc. Duke is playing fantastic ball right now..as good if not better than any in the country. This is the Duke team that began the season predicted as a Nat Champ.
Reality intervened though.

There is no doubt our record and our metrics are easily good enough to be a no 1 seed. May not turn out though. Politics, CBS, etc may reach in. Does it matter? Not so much in we stay at the 2. Oregon might have a say so in all this but , to be honest, if you're not UCLA and your team is isolated to the NW, you won't get the attention from the East Coast power cabal. I'm ok with a 2.

But find another forum for "shun the white house routine" please. We left politics in the room that was deleted.

Easy deep state. Easy.

DixieZag
03-11-2017, 06:54 PM
BTW: Why is it always Gonzaga that's the first out?

Since we were the 4th number one seed, we've beaten SMC twice (top 20) and, yes, lost to a BYU team that isn't entirely horrible (on paper).

UNC has lost how many since then? Lunardi says "the Champion of the ACC regular season has a spot" as in "birthright" and apparently some think the champion of the tournament also has a reserved spot.

Yes, I know the answer, "Mid Major/Duke/CBS

jazzdelmar
03-11-2017, 06:57 PM
BTW: Why is it always Gonzaga that's the first out?

Since we were the 4th number one seed, we've beaten SMC twice (top 20) and, yes, lost to a BYU team that isn't entirely horrible (on paper).

UNC has lost how many since then? Lunardi says "the Champion of the ACC regular season has a spot" as in "birthright" and apparently some think the champion of the tournament also has a reserved spot.

Yes, I know the answer, "Mid Major/Duke/CBS


Pray Our Lady makes this all moot.

DixieZag
03-11-2017, 07:00 PM
Pray Our Lady makes this all moot.

Good point.

Zag4Hire
03-11-2017, 07:11 PM
If it's good enough for Roy Williams, it's good enough for me.

MDABE80
03-11-2017, 07:14 PM
He's a good poster I think....no matter the motive or what's underlying, this is a basketball board. . Others make the decision I guess. Nothing earth shattering! GO IRISH!! It's basketball. The Madness is already underway! Look at these championship games and you'll know.......the madness has arrived despite the seedings or the games next Wednesday! Go Irish. Brey's a great guy and a very good coach! Love to see those Dukie politician boys lose their water in a defeat!!
GO ZAGS!

jazzdelmar
03-11-2017, 07:19 PM
He's a good poster I think....no matter the motive or what's underlying, this is a basketball board. . Others make the decision I guess. Nothing earth shattering! GO IRISH!! It's basketball. The Madness is already underway! Look at these championship games and you'll know.......the madness has arrived despite the seedings or the games next Wednesday! Go Irish. Brey's a great guy and a very good coach! Love to see those Dukie politician boys lose their water in a defeat!!
GO ZAGS!

Great phraseology, Doc. You missed your calling.

jazzdelmar
03-11-2017, 07:21 PM
Dukes next group of NBA flops -- god, there have been sooo many --- are pooping tonight.

MDABE80
03-11-2017, 07:22 PM
If it's good enough for Roy Williams, it's good enough for me.

Great! Run that crap on the North Carolina Board.
Look at these Irish kids take over! They have "toughness".
Long way to go though!

MDABE80
03-11-2017, 07:43 PM
Superior Game! Back and forth!
And now we see the usual over a politcal post. Nice work. Always happens.

Zag4Hire
03-11-2017, 07:46 PM
MDABE, you are one of the reasons I come here. My apologies. Go Irish, Beat Duke.

Zagdawg
03-11-2017, 07:49 PM
Oregon just lost their #3 scorer and #2 rebounder-- top shot blocker in the pac12 --for the rest of the year -- Chris Boucher --torn ACL. Injury may affect their seed.

http://collegebasketball.nbcsports.com/2017/03/11/chris-boucher-reportedly-suffered-torn-acl-out-for-year/

spike_jr
03-11-2017, 07:50 PM
Did these guys really say that ND is a 4 seed and Duke is a 2 if not a 1?!?! WTF?!? ND has the better overall record and the better conference record. What am I missing?

MDABE80
03-11-2017, 07:51 PM
Colson is such a good player. 6 ft 5 in and playing the post. Killin it tonight. 65 all. 2 min. Tatum on the line and he shouldn't be. UUUUUUUUUUUUGH! Jones drains a big one. Duke's really good nowadays.

No worries Zag4 Hire. Let's do basketball! We're all friends here.

jpn17
03-11-2017, 08:11 PM
Did these guys really say that ND is a 4 seed and Duke is a 2 if not a 1?!?! WTF?!? ND has the better overall record and the better conference record. What am I missing?

You're not missing anything, it's Duke. Really that's the reason. They will argue for Duke as a 1 seed because Duke.

spud_chance
03-11-2017, 08:48 PM
You're not missing anything, it's Duke. Really that's the reason. They will argue for Duke as a 1 seed because Duke.

Perhaps because Duke has more wins against both top 25 and top 50 teams than anyone else despite all the adversity they have faced this year.

sittingon50
03-11-2017, 08:50 PM
Wow; I got lost on the 1st page.

spud_chance
03-11-2017, 08:50 PM
Did these guys really say that ND is a 4 seed and Duke is a 2 if not a 1?!?! WTF?!? ND has the better overall record and the better conference record. What am I missing?

Also, perhaps because Duke has beaten Notre Dame twice this year.

MDABE80
03-11-2017, 08:54 PM
Unusual things happen when th seeding committee closes the doors. Lunadi, Plm both give GU a 1 seed as do others but the committee chooses what it wants.

bartruff1
03-11-2017, 08:55 PM
Not many, if any, other teams could win 4 games in 4 nights against the upper bracket of the ACC.... it won't hurt Duke if they are underseeded...it will hurt the teams they play...

jpn17
03-12-2017, 12:07 AM
Perhaps because Duke has more wins against both top 25 and top 50 teams than anyone else despite all the adversity they have faced this year.

They also have 8 losses, including Syracuse and NC State.

Zagger
03-12-2017, 06:48 AM
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/18887155/the-ncaa-tournament-selection-committee-some-tough-questions-answer

I don't like the smell of this .....


How to place the No. 1 seeds?
It's just not as easy as it's been in past years. Sure, Villanova is a lock. And Kansas, despite losing early in Big 12 tournament play, also looks like a shoo-in. It would also be difficult to imagine a North Carolina team that won the regular-season title in the best league in the country not getting a No. 1. Then it comes down to Gonzaga or the Pac-12 tournament-champion Arizona Wildcats. How does the committee value a one-loss Gonzaga team? In the early seed reveal last month, the Zags were the fourth No. 1, even though at the time they were undefeated. Or does it go to the Wildcats, who have more losses but also played in a more difficult conference and were without leading scorer Allonzo Trier for the season's first 19 games (including a loss to Gonzaga)? Or could it go to Duke, which won four games in four days at the NCAA tournament and has 13 wins against top-50 RPI teams?

Coach Crazy
03-12-2017, 07:13 AM
Allonzo Trier's impact is overstated, on some level.


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Zag4Hire
03-12-2017, 07:32 AM
Tracking Top 6 most accurate based upon 5 year bracket matrix rankings (Assembly Call, Switching the Coverage, Hoops HD - Teitel, SyracuseFan7's Bracketology, & 1-3-1 Sports) and they all have Gonzaga on the top line.

gonstu
03-12-2017, 07:35 AM
Tracking Top 6 most accurate based upon 5 year bracket matrix rankings (Assembly Call, Switching the Coverage, Hoops HD - Teitel, SyracuseFan7's Bracketology, & 1-3-1 Sports) and they all have Gonzaga on the top line.

I think we'll see zags 1 and zona 2. I think zags zona in E8 game. If it happens, the 1-seed zags will be the underdogs and will have to deal with the Arizona crowd. ("U OF A")

gu03alum
03-12-2017, 09:08 AM
I'm getting so angry watching the analysis. Was it ever a possibility that Gonzaga would get a one seed. Duke didn't win he ACC. Arizona didn't win the Pac12. Now that they have won their tournament they leapfrog Gonzaga. That's bull####.

ETA: does Kenpom even matter? Arizona is 22nd in Kenpom and barely beat an Pregon team missing one of its best player. Duke is 11th and has lost 8 times this year.

NEC26
03-12-2017, 09:15 AM
The Duke as a one seed is ridiculous talk. They played the 91st ranked non con schedule (significantly worse than every other 1 seed contender), They didn't play a single road game till conference play, they finished FIFTH in their conference, no team has ever been a one with 8 losses, they lost three of their last four before the tourney and have a couple bad losses.
If the committee is serious about rewarding teams that schedule tough then Duke clearly doesn't qualify. Its the same reason UCLA was a fourth seed when they came out with the first bracket.

Goshzagit
03-12-2017, 09:16 AM
Allonzo Trier's impact is overstated, on some level.


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Agreed til lately...


Last 4 games, Trier has scored 19, 20, 23, & 20.

He was the most electric player on the court last nite.

This is precisely why ive preached all season about avoiding Zona in NCAA.

Trier catching his groove, while the young guys find their roles.

Arizona & Duke are the teams I want to avoid.

Bring on all others...

sittingon50
03-12-2017, 11:03 AM
I like Trier. A lot. So Arizona should get a pass because he had something in his system that was banned?

If that's the case, they should just bag the whole charade.

gonzagafan62
03-12-2017, 11:05 AM
Allonzo Trier's impact is overstated, on some level.


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Yes Arizona was missing Michael Jordan that day

demian
03-12-2017, 12:03 PM
I hate Duke so much. But I have to admit I think they should be a #1 seed. I don't care who has to be kicked out of the #1 seed but Duke in my opinion (I know its only my opinion and I also know it wont be a popular opinion) looks like the best team in the country that I have seen right now. With Grayson Allen playing great the last three games and Jason Tatum who is UNREAL and Kennard is outstanding plus there supporting cast I think Duke looks the best of any team I saw this week on a Neutral court. I do think a team with only 1 loss deserves to be a #1 seed so for me I say UNC or Kansas should be kicked out of #1 for not even making there conference tourney final game (in the case of Kansas they didn't even make it to semis). Like in college football in my opinion I think Penn State was one of the 4 best teams in the country at end of the regular season and end of conference championship games and I think Penn State should have been in the College Football Playoff over Ohio State, because Penn State beat Ohio State and Ohio State didn't even qualify for there conference title game. Just my thoughts. Go Zags either way

Ekrub
03-12-2017, 12:11 PM
Hate the excuses. missing coaches (boeheim) and missing players (trier) for infractions should not be dismissed. Injuries are one thing (if for a game or two), but when you are excusing rules violations I think it does a disservice to the tourney. Jmo

DixieZag
03-12-2017, 12:13 PM
Hate the excuses. missing coaches (boeheim) and missing players (trier) for infractions should not be dismissed. Injuries are one thing (if for a game or two), but when you are excusing rules violations I think it does a disservice to the tourney. Jmo

Wow. Great point.

Hooray4Daye&Gray
03-12-2017, 12:17 PM
Agreed til lately...


Last 4 games, Trier has scored 19, 20, 23, & 20.

He was the most electric player on the court last nite.

This is precisely why ive preached all season about avoiding Zona in NCAA.

Trier catching his groove, while the young guys find their roles.

Arizona & Duke are the teams I want to avoid.

Bring on all others...

Almost happened, but Oregon couldn't hit a 3. Would have been dream scenario to have Oregon as the 2 seed in our region.

Now we could have a doomsday scenario. Arizona the 2. Louisville the 3. West Virginia the 4.

GonzagasaurusFlex
03-12-2017, 12:32 PM
Agreed til lately...


Last 4 games, Trier has scored 19, 20, 23, & 20.

He was the most electric player on the court last nite.

This is precisely why ive preached all season about avoiding Zona in NCAA.

Trier catching his groove, while the young guys find their roles.

Arizona & Duke are the teams I want to avoid.

Bring on all others...

West Virginia is the only team I hope Zags can avoid til as late in the tourney as possible.

Hooray4Daye&Gray
03-12-2017, 12:33 PM
My dream bracket is a bracket a website thinks is going to happen today:

https://sports131.files.wordpress.com/2017/03/bracket-031217-am.pdf

It's the first bracket that comes up on bracket matrix. I guess because it's in alphabetical order and it starts with a number.

Anyway, he has the S curve as:

1. Villanova
2. Kansas
3. Gonzaga (in the west)
4. Arizona
5. Duke
6. Oregon (in the west)
7. Kentucky
8. North Carolina

He then has Florida State as the 3, Notre Dame as the 4 and Virginia as the 5 in our bracket. See the rest for yourself.

MJ777
03-12-2017, 12:39 PM
My dream bracket is a bracket a website thinks is going to happen today:

https://sports131.files.wordpress.com/2017/03/bracket-031217-am.pdf

It's the first bracket that comes up on bracket matrix. I guess because it's in alphabetical order and it starts with a number.

Anyway, he has the S curve as:

1. Villanova
2. Kansas
3. Gonzaga (in the west)
4. Arizona
5. Duke
6. Oregon (in the west)
7. Kentucky
8. North Carolina

He then has Florida State as the 3, Notre Dame as the 4 and Virginia as the 5 in our bracket. See the rest for yourself.

I would love to see AZ as the 1 in the South with Duke being the 2, but it's not likely.

2wiceright
03-12-2017, 01:11 PM
I hate Duke so much. But I have to admit I think they should be a #1 seed. I don't care who has to be kicked out of the #1 seed but Duke in my opinion (I know its only my opinion and I also know it wont be a popular opinion) looks like the best team in the country that I have seen right now. With Grayson Allen playing great the last three games and Jason Tatum who is UNREAL and Kennard is outstanding plus there supporting cast I think Duke looks the best of any team I saw this week on a Neutral court. I do think a team with only 1 loss deserves to be a #1 seed so for me I say UNC or Kansas should be kicked out of #1 for not even making there conference tourney final game (in the case of Kansas they didn't even make it to semis). Like in college football in my opinion I think Penn State was one of the 4 best teams in the country at end of the regular season and end of conference championship games and I think Penn State should have been in the College Football Playoff over Ohio State, because Penn State beat Ohio State and Ohio State didn't even qualify for there conference title game. Just my thoughts. Go Zags either way

I respect your opinion Demian, but seeds are based on the "Season" BODY OF WORK! Not who gets hot in the conference tourney...Zags were all but perfect the entire season, sans BYU. And not a cupcake non conference schedule- as well as winning outright the WCC. (and yes the tourney too...).

If we were active this last week and owned a (year long) ranked St. Marys I think we would be in the conversation more (less disrespected, by at least a little lol). Like little kids, the pundits forget what isn't right in front of their faces!!!! Go Zags, we deserve #1 if nothing but for respect and accomplishments!

Zag4Hire
03-12-2017, 01:17 PM
Ugh one of the most accurate bracket predictors, Assembly Call, has the following for Gonzaga. #1 in the West (YAY!) but 8/9 is Wich State/VCU..oh man. Followed with an either Florida/Iowa State (honestly Iowa State has me a bit creeped). But Zona is the #2--what better matchup to get to a FF then the tournament nemesis.

http://assemblycall.com/bracketology-ncaa-tournament-bracket-projections-mar-12-2017/