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View Full Version : Past Champions KenPom Ratings vs. Ours



sittingon50
02-23-2017, 08:34 PM
Zag's jump to #1 in adjusted D.

:explode:

NumberCruncher
02-23-2017, 08:34 PM
Unprecedented.

Also, now #1 on DEFENSE!!!

NumberCruncher
02-23-2017, 08:36 PM
Zag's jump to #1 in adjusted D.

:explode:

Uh-oh, simultaneous posts. JINX!

rennis
02-23-2017, 08:53 PM
Unreal


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Ekrub
02-23-2017, 08:56 PM
Unprecedented.

Also, now #1 on DEFENSE!!!

Came here after seeing that. Amazing. Wonder what ken's opinion is on this.

gonzagafan62
02-23-2017, 09:45 PM
Just incredible

Ekrub
02-23-2017, 10:17 PM
Gonzaga's 58-point win over San Diego is the largest road win by the top-ranked team in AP poll history.

gonzagafan62
02-23-2017, 10:31 PM
Gonzaga's 58-point win over San Diego is the largest road win by the top-ranked team in AP poll history.

Just keep setting records

jazzdelmar
02-24-2017, 02:27 AM
C'mon guys. No rejoicing. USD is ATROCIOUS.

TexasZagFan
02-24-2017, 03:11 AM
C'mon guys. No rejoicing. USD is ATROCIOUS.

There was a comment from a guy in Wichita (in one of the SR stories) who severely criticized us for running up the score. Can't win for losing, can we? lol

jazzdelmar
02-24-2017, 03:31 AM
There was a comment from a guy in Wichita (in one of the SR stories) who severely criticized us for running up the score. Can't win for losing, can we? lol

Sadly, I think Few tried to hold the score down, putting in subs way early. USD is that bad, an embarrassment to CBB.

JPtheBeasta
02-24-2017, 04:50 AM
There was a comment from a guy in Wichita (in one of the SR stories) who severely criticized us for running up the score. Can't win for losing, can we? lol

I saw the same on the ESPN site. Lots of haters out there... If a blue blood does it, it's because they are supposed to. I wonder if SMC got crapped on for holding them to 9 points in the first half.

gonzagafan62
02-24-2017, 05:51 AM
Sadly, I think Few tried to hold the score down, putting in subs way early. USD is that bad, an embarrassment to CBB.

Very true. Unfewlike to put subs in (I think close to the 8 min mark) ..... I'll take it

Coach Crazy
02-24-2017, 06:32 AM
There was a comment from a guy in Wichita (in one of the SR stories) who severely criticized us for running up the score. Can't win for losing, can we? lol

And at this point, best to run it up. Whenever possible. Time to really embarrass teams if they aren't going to bring their programs along.


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TexasZagFan
02-24-2017, 07:02 AM
And at this point, best to run it up. Whenever possible. Time to really embarrass teams if they aren't going to bring their programs along.


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No lie...I predicted that we'd hold them to ten under their scoring average...never knew it would be 30.

DixieZag
02-24-2017, 07:24 AM
Sadly, I think Few tried to hold the score down, putting in subs way early. USD is that bad, an embarrassment to CBB.

Without disagreeing, what does that make BYU?

USD is terrible, doesn't mean it can't put together a sort of college-looking game.

No rejoicing 58pt wins, not when one has to watch Duke play Syracuse and UNC play Louisville and know we'll be with those guys in but a couple weeks.

Still, the stats are cool. Some will dismiss them. Problem is, when we had a gaudy record and bad stats, the stats didn't get dismissed then.

willandi
02-24-2017, 07:25 AM
Now rated #1 in BPI too!

Kong-Kool-Aid
02-24-2017, 08:03 AM
We are currently #1 in the KenPom ratings... how does this benefit us and stack up to past champs ratings?

2016 Champ - Villanova - #1 - Runner Up - UNC #2
2015 Champ - Duke - #3 - Runner Up - Wisconsin #2
2014 Champ - UConn - # 15 - Runner Up - Kentucky - #13
2013 Champ - Louisville - #1 - Runner Up - Michigan - #4
2012 Champ - Kentucky - #1 - Runner Up - Kansas - #4
2011 Champ - UConn - # 10 - Runner Up - Butler - #37
2010 Champ - Duke - #1 - Runner Up - Butler - #12
2009 Champ - UNC - #1 - Runner Up - Mich St. - #10
2008 Champ - Kansas - #1 - Runner Up - Memphis - #2
2007 Champ - Florida - #2 - Runner up - Ohio St. - #3
2006 Champ - Florida - #1 - Runner up - UCLA - #7

So, in the past 11 championships the #1 rating team according to Pomroy has won 7 Times but has never been the runner up.
in the 2 outlier seasons 2014 (The #1 team in Louisville made it to the final four) and 2011 (The #1 team Ohio State lost in the elite 8)

So.. what's this tell us...

1) We are pretty darn good.
2) If history tells us anything we should have a very good shot at not only making it to the final four but also winning the whole darn thing.
3) The teams that seem to mess things up for the top kenpom team are UConn, Butler and Kentucky.


And whatever else you want to gleam from the info.

I thought it was interesting when I looked at it.

Zags_Fanatic
02-24-2017, 08:21 AM
This is a bit misleading because tourney games count for a LOT in kenpom. The only real comparison would be to see archived versions of kenpom to find out what the ranking was before the tournament started. I suspect a lot of those #1 teams were #5 or lower when the tourney started.

CDC84
02-24-2017, 08:27 AM
Parrish at CBS says that GU's efficiency margin right now is the 2nd highest ever since the Pomeroy ratings started. The only team with a higher one is the 2015 UK team. I don't know if that's changed in recent games.

There is a massive efficiency gap between the number one and number two teams right now....Gonzaga and Nova. 6.05.

former1dog
02-24-2017, 08:31 AM
This is a bit misleading because tourney games count for a LOT in kenpom. The only real comparison would be to see archived versions of kenpom to find out what the ranking was before the tournament started. I suspect a lot of those #1 teams were #5 or lower when the tourney started.

Is one able to see snap shots of the ratings prior to the tournament?

former1dog
02-24-2017, 08:49 AM
http://www.barstoolsports.com/barstoolu/kenpoms-history-helps-predict-the-2016-national-champion/


What if you take the averages of the national championship winners since 2002? Well, the field gets a lot smaller. If you take the average Pythag number, AdjO and AdjD – 3 of the main components to KenPom’s stats, only three teams can win it. The average numbers are .934803 Pythag, Top-13 AdjO and Top-19 AdjD.
Those three teams might surprise you as they are Kansas, Virginia and Villanova. Michigan State just misses based on AdjD as does UNC while Oklahoma and WVU barely miss on AdjO. So if you buy into KenPom and the law of averages, put your money on Kansas, Virginia and Villanova.


Only one team ranked number one overall in Ken Pom rankings pre tournament went on to win it all, according to this article.

What is Pythag?

Gonzaga, Villanova and Kentucky satisfy the Top 13 AdjO and Top 19 AdjD averages the author mentions, BTW.

Kong-Kool-Aid
02-24-2017, 08:57 AM
Well crum! I was getting myself a little excited!

former1dog
02-24-2017, 09:25 AM
http://www.barstoolsports.com/barstoolu/kenpoms-history-helps-predict-the-2016-national-champion/



Only one team ranked number one overall in Ken Pom rankings pre tournament went on to win it all, according to this article.

What is Pythag?

Gonzaga, Villanova and Kentucky satisfy the Top 13 AdjO and Top 19 AdjD averages the author mentions, BTW.

Ok, I think I figured out the PyThag for Gonzaga as

0.968594899, well above the average the author calculated for champions.



Also, Villanova would still be in the running this year at .939. Kentucky is slightly below the average.

So, based on one author's interpretation of Ken Pomeroy's stats prior to last year's tournament where he correctly picked the eventual winner (a one out of 3 chance), Gonzaga is one of two teams that can win the national championship this year!! Yay...

Of course, this post and $5 bucks will get you a cup of coffee at Starbuck's but not much more, so you've been warned.

former1dog
02-24-2017, 09:36 AM
http://i.imgur.com/ad8YUod.png

NumberCruncher
02-24-2017, 04:17 PM
The pre-tourney snapshot for each season is available by downloading a csv file, which can be loaded into Excel. The Pythagorean results have all been converted to adjEM. This change actually moves some of the team rankings a little (last season's Zag ranking moved from 18 to 21 when he made the change). So I'm strictly working with adjEM now.

We know the Zags have a superior score of about 35 right now. This is the second best score for the entire KenPom period; so let's ask the question in an inverse way. How have the other teams with superior scores fared in the Tourney?

So I looked at all of the teams with a score at 30 or above. There are a total of 19 of them from 12 of the 15 seasons.
Of those 19 teams:
5 were champs,
2 made the title game,
2 made the FF,
4 made the E8,
3 made the S16 and
3 made R32.

Their combined record vs all teams not on the list was 66-11 for 85.7% (3 teams lost to another team on the list).

Kong-Kool-Aid
02-25-2017, 06:36 AM
So a pretty even spread of results! hah, maybe not as encouraging as I hoped.

NumberCruncher
02-25-2017, 10:00 AM
So a pretty even spread of results! hah, maybe not as encouraging as I hoped.

I don't read it that way at all. What's not encouraging about an 85.7% winning percentage?

Of course teams can and will come up from out of the pack. That's sports.

It looks like the Zags will be the only team with a superior score. Some years there aren't any. In 5 out of the 12 years in which there was at least one, the champ came from that list. So it's a 5 out of 12 chance of winning the title. That's 2.4/1 odds.