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FuManShoes
02-15-2017, 12:31 PM
An interesting thought exercise

http://247sports.com/Article/This-weeks-biggest-college-basketball-question-Who-could-give-Go-51306937

LongIslandZagFan
02-15-2017, 12:43 PM
WV is an interesting matchup. But... that being said... Huggy Bear, if I am not mistaken, has yet to beat Mark Few coached team.

MickMick
02-15-2017, 12:52 PM
I almost completely agree with this blog. The names in my head before clicking were UNC (GU is occasionally bad with allowing offensive rebounds), WVU, and Louisville (who knows how well Mathews and Perkins can hold up to "in your face" elite 3/4 court pressure? I'll answer. Probably not very well.)

I never thought of Florida State, but after watching Bonzie Colson single handidly destroy them, I'm less worried about FSU. At 6'5", Colson made a complete mockery of the FSU big men. I envisioned JWill3 the whole time I was watching Colson destroy them.

former1dog
02-15-2017, 12:53 PM
Florida State was the team I thought of prior to opening the article. What a coinkidink!

CDC84
02-15-2017, 12:55 PM
I have always felt that UNC is the most difficult matchup. Not only do they have that 6-7 wing that Greenberg talks about, but their main strength as a team is offensive rebounding, which I still feel is Gonzaga's biggest weakness. If the Zags give up 27 offensive rebounds to that team, the game won't end up like their win over Washington.

CDC84
02-15-2017, 01:05 PM
Florida State has to prove that they are a program who believes it can win outside of Tallahassee. They are such a roller coaster team. One night they are dominant, the next day they are getting annihilated by some middle of the pack ACC team. It depends which Seminole team you get.



I almost completely agree with this blog. The names in my head before clicking were UNC (GU is occasionally bad with offensive rebounds), WVU, and Louisville (who knows how well Mathews and Perkins can hold up to "in your face" elite 3/4 court pressure? I'll answer. Probably not very well.)

I agree with LIZF. Until Huggy Bear proves he can beat Few, WVU is a questionable team. L'Ville is a different deal because in addition to the press, Pitino is one of the best tournament coaches in the history of the game. The guy flat out knows how to prepare for a team. But his team is very erratic on offense. .

MickMick
02-15-2017, 01:17 PM
Florida State has to prove that they are a program who believes it can win outside of Tallahassee. They are such a roller coaster team. One night they are dominant, the next day they are getting annihilated by some middle of the pack ACC team. It depends which Seminole team you get.



I agree with LIZF. Until Huggy Bear proves he can beat Few, WVU is a questionable team. L'Ville is a different deal because in addition to the press, Pitino is one of the best tournament coaches in the history of the game. The guy flat out knows how to prepare for a team. But his team is very erratic on offense. .

Perhaps, but if Perkins can show his dribble to Rahon and watch it get stolen from under his nose, think of what the Mountaineers might do.

amaronizag
02-15-2017, 01:22 PM
I most fear Louisville, WVA, and Syracuse. The GU weakness has always been full court press and a zone defense. NOVA runs a pretty zone also. Then comes NC, KY, UCLA, AZ, & OR.
The fewer we play, the better. Can't wait to beat some of these teams.

Birddog
02-15-2017, 01:47 PM
We're doomed!

CarolinaZagFan
02-15-2017, 01:57 PM
Warriors and Cavs ;)

Zag4Hire
02-15-2017, 02:36 PM
I most fear Louisville.

Easily Louisville and might put UCLA on the short list as well.

Zags11
02-15-2017, 03:54 PM
Themselves

Goshzagit
02-15-2017, 04:03 PM
I think we'd school Louisville. Talk about a team with mental lapses...we have droughts but we dont have many breakdowns.

UNC is a huge concern to match up with, as they have long, athletic bigs, & a good shooting team to boot.

Duke hasnt played great early on, yet their adversity has brought them closer together & forced them to gel. Playing with a chip on their shoulder & their youngs guys getting better every game.

Scary thought, Duke could be a 4 seed this yr. Playing the former #1 team in the Sweet 16. It'd be our match up luck.

Havent the last 5 of 6 teams we've lost to advanced to the Final 4 or some ridiculous stat like that...?

Arizona makes me nervous, yet apparently the only one. I view them as a match up nightmare when healthy. They have a couple 7 footers who are improving, also, their guards are huge and can drive at will. Draw fouls & score at the rim. Looking to avenge a loss.

Kansas is well balanced & coached. They play with maturity & moxy. Very athletic & skilled.

Not afraid of WVU as they are like looking in a mirror. Very similar this season.

Kentucky in a Round of 32 game.

A lot depends on WHEN we face these teams.

Are we playing UCLA in Sweet 16 AND Oregon in Elite 8?

I seriously don't trust this year's committee. Too subjective & swayed by P5 conferences.

The committee chair was making a case for Clemson. They are 3-9 in ACC! Yes, decent wins, but shows you how clouded the thinking is...

NotoriousZ
02-15-2017, 04:06 PM
We got NWG and Melson, the press ain't gonna work against us. I guess there are several teams in the top 10 that could give us problems, but we're not getting blown out by any of them, and we should be favored in each of those games.

Just my "humble" opinion.

gonzagafan62
02-15-2017, 04:13 PM
Louisville scares me. West Virginia nope

TexasZagFan
02-15-2017, 06:22 PM
Louisville scares me. West Virginia nope

Louisville doesn't scare me. They rely heavily on the 3.

bigblahla
02-15-2017, 06:30 PM
I posted none 4-5 hours ago and deleted it....seemed arrogant...but the more I think about it the more it becomes obvious....anyone can lose....which is not necessarily being beat....but is defined that way....

The truth is it's the Zags that are the 500lb Gorilla....the elephant in the room....Defense travels...it's how they match up to us...seen them all...none as deep or as consistently cohesive as a TEAM....not knocking anybody as there are more than a couple really good teams capable of winning 6 games in a row....but just like Vegas....I like our chances...

Go!! Zags!!!

Reborn
02-15-2017, 06:33 PM
I'm not all that impressed with that article because honestly there are 10-15 OTHER teams that could beat the Zags, as well as beat UNC, Florida St., or West Virgina. This is going to be a very lethal field this year with land mines going off all over the place. One thing I will say about March Madness, and that is that it's the most unpredictable sporting event in America. But getting back to analyzing the teams mentioned in the article, first they will have to beat a couple really good teams to even be able to play Gonzaga. And since Gonzaga is in the West region, it will mean that they will have to play Oregon in San Jose I believe, first. So before I wonder if those teams can beat us, I wonder first, can they beat Oregon in San Jose? Personally I doubt it because all of those teams have trouble winning on the road. And for all of those teams it means traveling across the USA. When was the last time those teams played out West? The 3 teams mentioned most likely will not play in the West Region. North Carolina will be a #2 SEED, or #1, in either the East or South Region. The same thing for Florida St. And I think the same thing about W Virgina.

Baylor is another very dangerous team that could beat Gonzaga, but like the other teams mentioned above they will not end up out west. The same is true for LOUISVILLE. I would also say the same thing about UCLA. IMO, they could beat the Zags, but most likely will not be in the West Region. So that leaves 3 dangerous teams that could beat the Zags, and they are Kentucky, Virginia, and Duke. Right now Duke and Virginia are #4 seeds, and tied for 2nd in the ACC with 3 other teams. They are playing each other tonight @ Virgina. It's a very big game. I THINK THAT ONE OF THESE 3 TEAMS WILL END UP IN THE WEST.

The good news is that most likely whoever comes out west will come as a 3 seed, and have to beat Oregon before getting to us. And that will be very hard, imo. Oregon, imo is the most dangerous team for GonzagA, AND I''M SURPRISED that they have been left out of this discussion. Like our Zags they will be playing in the West Region, and it looks like in Sacramental. And, in the 2nd round, like the Zags, they will be playing in San Jose and would meet the Zags in the Elite 8. THIS WOULD BE A GREAT GAME.

gonstu
02-15-2017, 08:19 PM
Take care of business from here on out. Get the 1-seed. And don't have to play a top 12-ish team until the elite 8! doesn't mean we can't get taken down by someone else but that's a pretty good reward for the 1-seed.

MontanaCoyote
02-15-2017, 08:27 PM
I'm not all that impressed with that article because honestly there are 10-15 OTHER teams that could beat the Zags, as well as beat UNC, Florida St., or West Virgina. This is going to be a very lethal field this year with land mines going off all over the place. One thing I will say about March Madness, and that is that it's the most unpredictable sporting event in America. But getting back to analyzing the teams mentioned in the article, first they will have to beat a couple really good teams to even be able to play Gonzaga. And since Gonzaga is in the West region, it will mean that they will have to play Oregon in San Jose I believe, first. So before I wonder if those teams can beat us, I wonder first, can they beat Oregon in San Jose? Personally I doubt it because all of those teams have trouble winning on the road. And for all of those teams it means traveling across the USA. When was the last time those teams played out West? The 3 teams mentioned most likely will not play in the West Region. North Carolina will be a #2 SEED, or #1, in either the East or South Region. The same thing for Florida St. And I think the same thing about W Virgina.

Baylor is another very dangerous team that could beat Gonzaga, but like the other teams mentioned above they will not end up out west. The same is true for LOUISVILLE. I would also say the same thing about UCLA. IMO, they could beat the Zags, but most likely will not be in the West Region. So that leaves 3 dangerous teams that could beat the Zags, and they are Kentucky, Virginia, and Duke. Right now Duke and Virginia are #4 seeds, and tied for 2nd in the ACC with 3 other teams. They are playing each other tonight @ Virgina. It's a very big game. I THINK THAT ONE OF THESE 3 TEAMS WILL END UP IN THE WEST.

The good news is that most likely whoever comes out west will come as a 3 seed, and have to beat Oregon before getting to us. And that will be very hard, imo. Oregon, imo is the most dangerous team for GonzagA, AND I''M SURPRISED that they have been left out of this discussion. Like our Zags they will be playing in the West Region, and it looks like in Sacramental. And, in the 2nd round, like the Zags, they will be playing in San Jose and would meet the Zags in the Elite 8. THIS WOULD BE A GREAT GAME.

Sentences 2 and 3 pretty much say it all. The Dance really is a crap shoot. One mistake, one bad call, one travel, one possession arrow, one goal tending, one just about anything can be and will be the difference in games. Scary, really!

nonzagzag
02-15-2017, 08:54 PM
who has a big man who can stop Karnowski defensively?

ScrapironJim
02-15-2017, 10:44 PM
I posted none 4-5 hours ago and deleted it....seemed arrogant...but the more I think about it the more it becomes obvious....anyone can lose....which is not necessarily being beat....but is defined that way....

The truth is it's the Zags that are the 500lb Gorilla....the elephant in the room....Defense travels...it's how they match up to us...seen them all...none as deep or as consistently cohesive as a TEAM....not knocking anybody as there are more than a couple really good teams capable of winning 6 games in a row....but just like Vegas....I like our chances...

Go!! Zags!!!

Bulls eye!!!! We are the number one team in the country. That's a consensus opinion with the exception of the COI (committee of idiots).
IMO, every team in the country fears Gonzaga to some extent. We are the gorilla . . . period!!!
ENJOY. WE ARE GOOD!!!!!!

krozman
02-15-2017, 10:55 PM
I'm curious whether the school would consider the possibility of picking a region NOT in the west just because of potential matchups. Maybe an interesting discussion point of its own.

jpn17
02-16-2017, 12:12 AM
Teams that worry me: Villanova, Kansas, Baylor, UNC, Louisville, Arizona, Virginia, West Virginia

Teams that don't worry me: Kentucky, Duke, Florida St, Oregon, UCLA, Wisconsin, Florida

Florida would have been on my worry list before their big got hurt.

willandi
02-16-2017, 06:03 AM
I have always felt that UNC is the most difficult matchup. Not only do they have that 6-7 wing that Greenberg talks about, but their main strength as a team is offensive rebounding, which I still feel is Gonzaga's biggest weakness. If the Zags give up 27 offensive rebounds to that team, the game won't end up like their win over Washington.

The main stat that goes along with giving up 27 offensive rebounds is 27 missed shots, they go hand in hand. Many of those missed shots/offensive rebounds can come in clusters too, one player missing 2-3 bunnies on a single play. If UNC or anybody gets 30 offensive rebounds against the Zags, and shoot 30% - 40% from the floor, they are going down!

mgadfly
02-16-2017, 09:47 AM
March Madness is really unpredictable. If the Zags are a 1 seed facing a likely 16 seed in round 1:

Obviously we should win any match up here, but I'd want to avoid Florida Gulf Coast. They have a 6'9" big guy that rebounds, have won 21 games already and played Baylor and Michigan State super tough on the road earlier this year.

I considered North Carolina Central because they are the most experienced team in the nation, have a stud point guard and wings, but they have no size at all. They could be a tough match up for a short team like Iowa State, but the Zags frontline would overwhelm them. But they will be a good 16 or 15 seed with the capability of winning a game if given the right match up.

Round 2 against possible 8 to 9 seeds:

I used ESPNs projected brackets to get an idea for the teams that might be there (Oklahoma State, VCU, Dayton, Virginia Tech, Wichita State, Miami, USC, Iowa State, Michigan, So. Carolina, Mich. State, Xavier, Minnesota, Cal, Northwestern, TCU)

I would hate to play Wichita State in the second round. They are 24-4 and all their losses are to teams that will probably make the tournament. They have okay size and are well coached.

Oklahoma State would be tough too, since they've won 8 of 9 against good competition, beat Wichita State earlier this year too, and have a star player that can take over a game. But they are short, and I would love to have the mismatches in the front court.

Syracuse would be tough with their zone and length. By tournament time they are going to be a battle tested team that presents tough matchups.

USC has done well, but they are young and I think a year away from making the second weekend.

For me, I don't want to see Cal (even though the JM story line would be fun). They have experience, size, a lot of continuity (at least on the floor) from last season, and a top 10 defense. Other than a loss to SDSU (#75 Ken Pom) in November they have only lost to real good teams. Losing to Arizona by 5 both times, losing at UCLA and at Oregon. Losing to Virginia by 4 at home. I think because of all the attention UCLA, Arizona, and Oregon have received, they have flown under the radar this season.

Then when we get to the top 10 to 12 teams in the later rounds, I'd fear them all. If a team makes it to the Elite 8 it is because they are really good, or super hot at the right time. Either way, those games on the second weekend are tough for any team, no matter how dominant they are.

ZagMan in Philly
02-16-2017, 10:36 AM
Teams that shoot the three well..like UCLA, Kansas, Purdue.

Goshzagit
02-16-2017, 10:59 AM
Baylor already gave us trouble.

But we gave them trouble as well. The game was dead even. A half won by them, a half won by us. Karno was limited & Collins played great.

What about all the teams GU will haunt come Tourney time?

The stigma will be we are the 'weakest' top seed once again. Paper tiger. Not so this season.

This team can hang with and beat any team in the field.

Have never felt that way before as a Zag fan. My heart always did, but my head knew better...

We could lose in the 2nd Rd or win the whole damn shabongo!

soccerdud
02-16-2017, 11:23 AM
The main stat that goes along with giving up 27 offensive rebounds is 27 missed shots, they go hand in hand. Many of those missed shots/offensive rebounds can come in clusters too, one player missing 2-3 bunnies on a single play. If UNC or anybody gets 30 offensive rebounds against the Zags, and shoot 30% - 40% from the floor, they are going down!

the net result of a missed shot + offensive rebound? a new shot clock. that's it. allowing offensive rebounds is the surest way to allow an opponent that shoots a low % to still score points (fouls being a close 2nd).

yes our defense is good. yes, because our defense is good, our opponents are probably less likely to score off an offensive rebound than they would be against most teams. doesn't change the fact that allowing an offensive rebound undoes the good of forcing them to miss the shot, regardless of the eventual outcome. we LOSE if we allow 30 offensive rebounds and they shoot 30+% from the floor.

edited to add: i was the big vocal one using numbers awhile back on CDC's thread about rebounding being an issue. the stats show we have made major strides here. there are a couple of reasons for this: 1) few and the players are clearly paying more attention and emphasizing it more. 2) several WCC teams have basically chosen not to contest the rebounds after they shoot it (i remember, particularly, the game immediately after the thread died down wherein santa clara [? i think] got 2 offensive rebounds, but only had players in the TV frame for about a dozen of the zags' defensive boards).

i am optimistic that we are improved enough that we can hold our own against most opponents there, tho.

willandi
02-16-2017, 07:14 PM
the net result of a missed shot + offensive rebound? a new shot clock. that's it. allowing offensive rebounds is the surest way to allow an opponent that shoots a low % to still score points (fouls being a close 2nd).

yes our defense is good. yes, because our defense is good, our opponents are probably less likely to score off an offensive rebound than they would be against most teams. doesn't change the fact that allowing an offensive rebound undoes the good of forcing them to miss the shot, regardless of the eventual outcome. we LOSE if we allow 30 offensive rebounds and they shoot 30+% from the floor.

edited to add: i was the big vocal one using numbers awhile back on CDC's thread about rebounding being an issue. the stats show we have made major strides here. there are a couple of reasons for this: 1) few and the players are clearly paying more attention and emphasizing it more. 2) several WCC teams have basically chosen not to contest the rebounds after they shoot it (i remember, particularly, the game immediately after the thread died down wherein santa clara [? i think] got 2 offensive rebounds, but only had players in the TV frame for about a dozen of the zags' defensive boards).

i am optimistic that we are improved enough that we can hold our own against most opponents there, tho.

Obviously we disagree. Mostly I was trying to point out that offensive rebounds are a direct result of missed shots. If teams miss enough shots, even if they get O rebounds and assuming that they miss some of the put-backs, ad infinitum, eventually Zags win.

That's my opinion and I'm stickin' to it!

gonzagafan62
02-16-2017, 07:30 PM
What about sparty? If they make a run here they could be a 8 or 9.... don't have much guard play but still izzo right?

soccerdud
02-16-2017, 07:49 PM
Obviously we disagree. Mostly I was trying to point out that offensive rebounds are a direct result of missed shots. If teams miss enough shots, even if they get O rebounds and assuming that they miss some of the put-backs, ad infinitum, eventually Zags win.

That's my opinion and I'm stickin' to it!

and that's your prerogative. i did the math (and i can walk you through it if you like), but if we play UNC at the average of the two teams' pace, allow 30 offensive rebounds, 30% shooting, turnovers committed/forced are anywhere near the average of each team, and they have OUR typically allowed breakdown of 2pts/3pts/fts (which lowers their pt total, as they usually score more from 3s than we allow and shoot better from FT than our opponents have), they score 75 and average around 1.1ppp. if you start inching their fg% up toward 40%, it quickly gets out of control for us. i understand the narrative, and i understand you are using a bit of hyperbole or just throwing numbers out there, but i believe any examination of the numbers shows that what you are claiming is factually untrue. but you're certainly welcome to dig in and stick to your opinion, regardless.

yes, more misses give more oreb opportunities. but the number 30 is ridiculous. and it is a fact that you are no better off (and are often worse off) forcing a miss and giving up the oreb than you were at the beginning of the possession. we are in trouble against a good team if we give up more than 20, even if we play well otherwise. if we otherwise have a bad game, 10-15 could be plenty to change the game. here's hoping that isn't a problem in the tournament. as i said above, i feel way better about that than i did a month ago.

willandi
02-16-2017, 08:02 PM
and that's your prerogative. i did the math (and i can walk you through it if you like), but if we play UNC at the average of the two teams' pace, allow 30 offensive rebounds, 30% shooting, turnovers committed/forced are anywhere near the average of each team, and they have OUR typically allowed breakdown of 2pts/3pts/fts (which lowers their pt total, as they usually score more from 3s than we allow and shoot better from FT than our opponents have), they score 75 and average around 1.1ppp. if you start inching their fg% up toward 40%, it quickly gets out of control for us. i understand the narrative, and i understand you are using a bit of hyperbole or just throwing numbers out there, but i believe any examination of the numbers shows that what you are claiming is factually untrue. but you're certainly welcome to dig in and stick to your opinion, regardless.

yes, more misses give more oreb opportunities. but the number 30 is ridiculous. and it is a fact that you are no better off (and are often worse off) forcing a miss and giving up the oreb than you were at the beginning of the possession. we are in trouble against a good team if we give up more than 20, even if we play well otherwise. if we otherwise have a bad game, 10-15 could be plenty to change the game. here's hoping that isn't a problem in the tournament. as i said above, i feel way better about that than i did a month ago.

You are right...and if every team hits 100% there are no offensive rebounds and we lose.

Offensive rebounds are a result of missed shots. The more shots they miss, the better chance that they lose. It's pretty simple, no matter how you do the math.

soccerdud
02-16-2017, 08:09 PM
You are right...and if every team hits 100% there are no offensive rebounds and we lose.

Offensive rebounds are a result of missed shots. The more shots they miss, the better chance that they lose. It's pretty simple, no matter how you do the math.

and if they miss 30 shots and get 30 offensive rebounds, it's the same deal-- 100% effective points per possession. there just aren't enough possessions in a game to support your position at the crazy numbers you're throwing out. again, i agree with the principle. but when you attach a number to it and that number is crazy, your position appears crazy. and when it's easy to poke a hole in your position because you're using bad numbers, your point gets lost. i'm not asking you to change your position. but you'll be way more convincing if you use sane numbers.

sometimes good principles break down when taken to the extreme. reductio ad absurdum is a thing, and your post started there.

willandi
02-16-2017, 08:29 PM
The main stat that goes along with giving up 27 offensive rebounds is 27 missed shots, they go hand in hand. Many of those missed shots/offensive rebounds can come in clusters too, one player missing 2-3 bunnies on a single play. If UNC or anybody gets 30 offensive rebounds against the Zags, and shoot 30% - 40% from the floor, they are going down!


and if they miss 30 shots and get 30 offensive rebounds, it's the same deal-- 100% effective points per possession. there just aren't enough possessions in a game to support your position at the crazy numbers you're throwing out. again, i agree with the principle. but when you attach a number to it and that number is crazy, your position appears crazy. and when it's easy to poke a hole in your position because you're using bad numbers, your point gets lost. i'm not asking you to change your position. but you'll be way more convincing if you use sane numbers.

sometimes good principles break down when taken to the extreme. reductio ad absurdum is a thing, and your post started there.

My initial premise was that many of those misses come in clusters.

You can make math/statistics support any position you choose.

The more shots you miss, the bigger chance you lose. Twist it however you want. I'm out!

bartruff1
02-16-2017, 08:30 PM
Anyone in the round of 32 can win the next game....

soccerdud
02-16-2017, 08:44 PM
My initial premise was that many of those misses come in clusters.

You can make math/statistics support any position you choose.

The more shots you miss, the bigger chance you lose. Twist it however you want. I'm out!

that's not how numbers work. i didn't choose the numbers we were discussing. you did. that was my point. but, regardless, i hope you have an excellent evening.

Zagricultural
02-17-2017, 02:37 PM
Thought this was relevant.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/insider/story/_/id/18697558/west-virginia-mountaineers-coaches-most-feared-group-march

amaronizag
02-17-2017, 11:05 PM
GU is still coached to get back on defense after a GU shot goes up. If nobody is close to the basket, nobody crashes the boards, everybody turns tail and runs for the other end. I miss Draino. He was a ball magnet and went where the ball was no matter where he was on the court when the ball went up. We aren't giving up easy points on the fast break, but we don't get chances at put backs either. Is it a wash? I'm not Jerry Krause and don't know the answer. But it worries me when we have an off night from beyond the arc.

MickMick
03-12-2017, 02:20 PM
Bump

Mantua
03-12-2017, 03:29 PM
GU is still coached to get back on defense after a GU shot goes up. If nobody is close to the basket, nobody crashes the boards, everybody turns tail and runs for the other end. I miss Draino. He was a ball magnet and went where the ball was no matter where he was on the court when the ball went up. We aren't giving up easy points on the fast break, but we don't get chances at put backs either. Is it a wash? I'm not Jerry Krause and don't know the answer. But it worries me when we have an off night from beyond the arc.

Good post! I've worried all year about rebounding under our basket. Lately we've taken far too many early threes and not had a chance at rebounding.

uZiGiZaG
03-12-2017, 03:36 PM
VANDY
FSU
ZONA
WVU
ND
MARYLAND

In that order

75Zag
03-12-2017, 03:52 PM
VANDY gives me heartburn, but one problem at a time.

See you in SLC - GO Bulldogs!

Bogozags
03-12-2017, 03:53 PM
Boy, I sure didn't want to see ND or WVU. Bonzie is going to be quite a match up problem and ND shoot FTs like no team I have ever seen and they shoot the long ball pretty darn well too...it is going to be a challenge...

WVU and their FC Press...get the ball in bounds and push to score before they can set their defence.

I think if we have the right mind set, play great defence and work inside-out we should do alright.