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ScrapironJim
02-12-2017, 07:56 PM
VA Tech just beat VA and the gap between #1 Zags and UVA in KenPom is now up to four points.

The evidence mounts!!!!

WE ARE GOOD!!!

DixieZag
02-12-2017, 08:00 PM
VA Tech just beat VA and the gap between #1 Zags and UVA in KenPom is now up to four points.

The evidence mounts!!!!

WE ARE GOOD!!!

Nice get.

Post more often.

Zagceo
02-12-2017, 08:03 PM
Unfortunately numbers aren't enough for the committee....

gonzagafan62
02-12-2017, 08:05 PM
It's us vs the world.

One game at a time.

We may have the horses to be great like 76

ScrapironJim
02-12-2017, 08:10 PM
Unfortunately numbers aren't enough for the committee....
I agree. But I also think that every college basketball player and fan with three digits in their IQ knows that KenPom is the most accurate statistical rating. They may not admit it, but they know it. And everyone in sports media knows it as well and most of them admit it. Question is will the committee attempt to disabuse all of those people??

TexasZag
02-13-2017, 04:40 AM
I agree. But I also think that every college basketball player and fan with three digits in their IQ knows that KenPom is the most accurate statistical rating. They may not admit it, but they know it. And everyone in sports media knows it as well and most of them admit it. Question is will the committee attempt to disabuse all of those people??

It would be interesting to see how the last several national champs have graded out with KenPom. I don't have the time or the tools, so I can't do the research. But I think it'd be interesting.

Once and Future Zag
02-13-2017, 06:26 AM
It would be interesting to see how the last several national champs have graded out with KenPom. I don't have the time or the tools, so I can't do the research. But I think it'd be interesting.

Year / Team/ Pre-tourney KenPom ranking
2007 / Florida / #2
2008 / Kansas / #1
2009 / UNC / #3 (GU was #5)
2010 / Duke / #2
2011 / UConn / #17 (WTF?)
2012 / Kentucky / #1
2013 / Lousiville / #2
2014 / Uconn / #26 (Double WTF?!)
2015 / Duke / #7 (GU was #8)
2016 / Villanova / #6
2017 / ? / ?

Aside from the freakshow that is apparently Uconn when it comes to tourney time, in the last 10 years all but the two most recent champs were ranked no lower than #3 in the last Pre-Tournament KenPom standings.

gonzagafan62
02-13-2017, 06:35 AM
Basically what once and future Zag is saying is:

Unless you're uconn you may not have a WTF moment. You really have to be in the top 5-7 team to win it

scrooner
02-13-2017, 06:39 AM
The tournament is totally freaky, and even you're one of the best teams you can get taken out by streaky shooting, injuries, bad foul calls, whatever. There is no system, KenPom or otherwise, that can predict who is going to make the Final Four.

That being said, when making picks in your bracket you'll definitely want to look at KenPom to determine the strength of the teams. It seems to be a good way to predict upsets. In 2013 when the Zags lost in the 1-9 game to Wichita St, we were KenPom #5 and they were KenPom #17, so they were a lot closer in strength than the seeding indicated. Last year the Zags destroyed Utah in the 11-3 game, which isn't surprising if you know that KenPom shows Gonzaga as #21 and Utah as #33 (I can't see the 'pre-tournament' standings).

TexasZagFan
02-13-2017, 06:54 AM
We all know that the blue blood arrows won't stop coming at us until we make the Final Four.

At which point, the next line will be, "what took you so long?"

gonzagafan62
02-13-2017, 06:55 AM
We all know that the blue blood arrows won't stop coming at us until we win the national championship

At which point, the next line will be, "what took you so long?"

Fixed it

jake
02-13-2017, 09:14 AM
This is just from visually looking at the KenPom ratings each year where he highlights the teams left in the tournament on a list of his rankings, but I've always thought his rankings were better than the tournament seeds at projecting results. What seems to be missed by some in the media and the fans is the difficulty of winning multiple games and the variance that will occur in any tournament. They put too much weight on the Final 4 and/or title. For some reason I only see one region when I look at the KenPom, pre-tournament odds of teams advancing to each round of the tournament last year, but in the Midwest the #1 and 2 seeds (Virginia and Michigan St.) had about a 33% chance of making the final 4 and around 20% chance of even making the final. http://kenpom.com/blog/2016-ncaa-tournament-log5/#more-17 Even if you look from the Sweet 16 on last year, no team in the tournament had more than a 20% chance of winning the tournament at that point. http://kenpom.com/blog/sweet-16-probabilities/

BayAreaZagFan
02-13-2017, 11:39 AM
We all know that the blue blood arrows won't stop coming at us until we make the Final Four.

At which point, the next line will be, "what took you so long?"

Or, "just one? My team has ____ (fill in the blank)."