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CDC84
02-09-2017, 09:21 AM
http://www.sportingnews.com/ncaa-basketball/news/ncaa-tournament-selection-preview-march-madness-selection-sunday-college-basketball/jelfyo112sek1ci315cruv8xc

The show starts at 9:30am PT on CBS. I personally feel it's a bit of a worthless exercise being that things in college basketball change so frequently. For instance, 6 of the top 10 teams in the AP poll were beaten last Saturday. Fortunately, the committee understands this. This will never become a weekly show like we have in college football.

But who knows, maybe we'll get some insight in the selection process. The show might be informative....to some degree.

And yes, count on a lot of twitter griping about Gonzaga getting a one seed. The bracket will be revealed before the Saint Mary's game (of course).

TexasZagFan
02-09-2017, 09:58 AM
I read earlier that a show will follow that will list the unofficial 68 team universe, according to analysts such as Jerry Palm. I like that idea, even if it is a mere projection.

ProVeeZag
02-09-2017, 10:31 AM
I read earlier that a show will follow that will list the unofficial 68 team universe, according to analysts such as Jerry Palm. I like that idea, even if it is a mere projection.

CBS tapping into yet another sports revenue stream .... millions of us roundball junkies will watch. Such easy money for the networks.

gonzagafan62
02-09-2017, 10:33 AM
Yup. But only top 16 teams. Lame. I'll watch cuz they'll have to talk zags. But man it's DVR material and I'll watch when my son takes a nap

TexasZagFan
02-09-2017, 11:35 AM
CBS tapping into yet another sports revenue stream .... millions of us roundball junkies will watch. Such easy money for the networks.

Like shooting fish in a barrel...

https://ralphiesportal.files.wordpress.com/2014/11/1280877_594736787231047_1535798220_n.jpg

ProVeeZag
02-09-2017, 04:02 PM
Like shooting fish in a barrel...

https://ralphiesportal.files.wordpress.com/2014/11/1280877_594736787231047_1535798220_n.jpg

Frickin' hilarious! Made my day (the 1st part of it anyway!).

RenoZag
02-10-2017, 05:23 PM
Lunardi published a column this morning identifying his Top 16 and his projected Top 16 come March 12:

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/insider/story/_/id/18658163/ncaa-tournament-selection-committee-top-16-seeds-happen

2/11/17 Picks

# 1's: Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga, Baylor
# 2's: UNC, Arizona, Oregon, Louisville
# 3's: UK, FSU, Wisconsin, Virginia
# 4's: Florida, West Virginia, UCLA, Cinn

3/12/17 Predictions

#1's: Gonzaga, Nova, KU, UNC
#2's: Baylor, AZ, Kentucky, Wisconsin,
#3's: Oregon, Louisville, FSU, Florida
#4's: Virginia, UCLA, Cinn
#5's: West Virginia

DixieZag
02-10-2017, 05:31 PM
Are the ones in order of overall seed?

Would be nice.

I'd like for them to be able to pick their pod.

VaBeachZAG
02-10-2017, 05:34 PM
Are the ones in order of overall seed?

Would be nice.

I'd like for them to be able to pick their pod.

I'd like them to be guaranteed their home whites for the national championship game :)

RenoZag
02-10-2017, 06:07 PM
Are the ones in order of overall seed?

Would be nice.

I'd like for them to be able to pick their pod.


I'd like them to be guaranteed their home whites for the national championship game :)

Those are in ranked order, so yes, Joey Brackets is predicting come Selection Sunday, the Zags would get the # 1 overall seed.

Be prepared tomorrow to hear Jay " Crash" Williams poo-poo any notion of that happening.

The ESPN Nitty Gritty Report that was published before the LMU hockey scrum had the Zags as the 4th overall # 1: http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/nitty

gonstu
02-10-2017, 09:27 PM
I'd like them to be guaranteed their home whites for the national championship game :)

Nah, that's when they break out the red unis! :lmao:

RenoZag
02-11-2017, 08:33 AM
Villanova overall # 1 seed. . .dammit

Kansas

Baylor

Gonzaga is 4th #1 Seed ( as of today )

23dpg
02-11-2017, 08:34 AM
4th????

Kong-Kool-Aid
02-11-2017, 08:36 AM
That's nuts!

RenoZag
02-11-2017, 08:36 AM
Oregon in the West Region w/ GU. . .

gonzagafan62
02-11-2017, 08:37 AM
Villanova overall # 1 seed. . .dammit

Kansas

Baylor

Gonzaga is 4th #1 Seed ( as of today )

What a load of BS.

Hoopaholic
02-11-2017, 08:38 AM
Villanova overall # 1 seed. . .dammit

Kansas

Baylor

Gonzaga is 4th #1 Seed ( as of today )

Clear disrespect for our league

DixieZag
02-11-2017, 08:38 AM
GET READY FOR OUTRAGE!!!!

After all that love on gameday, the sure talk of us being a number one overall seed, the talk that we can lose one and still be a number one seed - and then that, total disrespect, again.

That means, according to the committee, if we lose today, we're not a number one seed going forward.

What an outrage. I realize that if we win out, it will look a little different but now we have absolutely no margin for error, unbelievable!

Kong-Kool-Aid
02-11-2017, 08:38 AM
Clear disrespect for our league

Didn't Hollis just say that they don't take league into account?

RenoZag
02-11-2017, 08:39 AM
Well, the NCAA is going to get what they were after: LOTS of talk about the brackets 4 weeks before Selection Sunday.

Zags will have to run the table to even have a slim chance at the # 1 seed. SOS (in Conference ) will never go away as a determining factor.

Zags will see your chip on the shoulder, Joe Rahon, and raise you one better. . .

Beat the Gaels

http://i1178.photobucket.com/albums/x375/RenoZag/AxeGrinding.jpg (http://s1178.photobucket.com/user/RenoZag/media/AxeGrinding.jpg.html)

ZagMan in Philly
02-11-2017, 08:39 AM
What a load of BS.

Totally agree.
Baylor n Kansas not ahead of Zags.
Clearly bias.

Hoopaholic
02-11-2017, 08:40 AM
GET READY FOR OUTRAGE!!!!

After all that love on gameday, the sure talk of us being a number one overall seed, the talk that we can lose one and still be a number one seed - and then that, total disrespect, again.

That means, according to the committee, if we lose today, we're not a number one seed going forward.

What an outrage. I realize that if we win out, it will look a little different but now we have absolutely no margin for error, unbelievable!
Disagree
Committee chair said there was clear distinct difference between 1 and 2's

Hoopaholic
02-11-2017, 08:40 AM
Didn't Hollis just say that they don't take league into account?

Double talk

Kong-Kool-Aid
02-11-2017, 08:41 AM
Looking at an undefeated Gonzaga being ranked 4 by the committee, there is no way that SMC is in the tourny without a win against Gonzaga.

RenoZag
02-11-2017, 08:44 AM
GU
OREGON
VIRGINIA
WEST VIRGINIA

in San Jose. . .remember: This can all change over the next month. All the Zags can do is take care of their business. . .

Hoopaholic
02-11-2017, 08:45 AM
GU
OREGON
VIRGINIA
WEST VIRGINIA

in San Jose. . .remember: This can all change over the next month. All the Zags can do is take care of their business. . .

I like it personally

DixieZag
02-11-2017, 08:45 AM
Disagree
Committee chair said there was clear distinct difference between 1 and 2's

Right. When we're undefeated. What I see is that we lose one and then there's no longer a clear distinction and we're off that level.

Look, if we're number 4 right now, if we pick up a loss, I just don't see it happening. When almost everyone else has us as the number one overall seed, and the committee puts us down to 4? I see that as a highly precarious situation and how they look at us. Hard for me to believe you see that and say that there's still so much difference that they'd not throw us down to the 2 seed.

Look at our record, 6-0 over top 50 right now??

Given where they have us right now, if Villanova and Kansas go in with only 1 or 0 losses, I don't see any way at all we bump them.

gonzagafan62
02-11-2017, 08:46 AM
GU
OREGON
VIRGINIA
WEST VIRGINIA

in San Jose. . .remember: This can all change over the next month. All the Zags can do is take care of their business. . .

I think we'd roll right into elite eight with that bracket right there if Top 4. Oregon kinda scary but wouldn't mind playing Virginia with all marbles on table

CdAZagFan
02-11-2017, 08:47 AM
Good... we've been "disrespected" as the 4th No. 1 Seed... Now take that motivation out on the Gaels!

U Zig, I Zag
02-11-2017, 08:48 AM
No late season non-conf game will hurt GU this year (and all years going forward). Those early season wins were impressive but a long time ago, folks.

You have to wonder if killing some of these WCC foes actually negates the value of our wins (aka, maybe some of the teams are just not good at all and GU is just pretty good). I don't buy it. But the committee might.

ZagMan in Philly
02-11-2017, 08:49 AM
I think this committee will not give the Zags the overall #1 seed even if they go undefeated.
So bias.

TheZagPhish
02-11-2017, 08:50 AM
Zags will see your chip on the shoulder, Joe Rahon, and raise you one better. . .

Beat the Gaels

+1

jazzdelmar
02-11-2017, 08:51 AM
No program on cbs in San Diego.

Hoopaholic
02-11-2017, 08:51 AM
I think we'd roll right into elite eight with that bracket right there if Top 4. Oregon kinda scary but wouldn't mind playing Virginia with all marbles on table

Oregon might get clipped by Virginia in head to head

Hoopaholic
02-11-2017, 08:54 AM
Palms bracket has SMC at the 6 line

To me indicates they need to win against us tonight and/or championship or they be outside looking in

Zagceo
02-11-2017, 08:54 AM
Good... we've been "disrespected" as the 4th No. 1 Seed... Now take that motivation out on the Gaels!

Yep

Nigel could be happy

gonzagafan62
02-11-2017, 08:55 AM
Palms bracket has SMC at the 6 line

To me indicates they need to win against us tonight and/or championship or they be outside looking in

It'd be close

SunDevilGolfZag
02-11-2017, 08:57 AM
My big question after seeing this show is what metrics does the Committee actually use??

DixieZag
02-11-2017, 08:58 AM
Good... we've been "disrespected" as the 4th No. 1 Seed... Now take that motivation out on the Gaels!

That's a great take. Definitely right.

NEC26
02-11-2017, 09:00 AM
A loss to the top team in the nation will not drop the Gaels from the tourney. A loss to GU plus a loss to a bottom dwelling WCC member and it might be a little closer. Still think they would get in though.

Zagceo
02-11-2017, 09:00 AM
My big question after seeing this show is what metrics does the Committee actually use??

Endowment size

Kong-Kool-Aid
02-11-2017, 09:02 AM
A loss to the top team in the nation will not drop the Gaels from the tourney. A loss to GU plus a loss to a bottom dwelling WCC member and it might be a little closer. Still think they would get in though.

The gaels won't be in without beating Gonzaga or winning the WCC tourny.

They have what, one somewhat decent win?

rennis
02-11-2017, 09:03 AM
Palms bracket has SMC at the 6 line

To me indicates they need to win against us tonight and/or championship or they be outside looking in

respectfully disagree. 6 seed is usually filled with pretty good teams. It's just a tough seed line to be on. *cough Seton Hall *cough

Zagsker
02-11-2017, 09:03 AM
What a load of BS.

Lol....why??? Does it really matter if we are the 1st 1 seed or the 4th 1 seed

gonzagafan62
02-11-2017, 09:04 AM
The gaels won't be in without beating Gonzaga or winning the WCC tourny.

They have what, one somewhat decent win?

2-1 vs top 50.

thats what they were last year. They'll only get worse with a loss tonight

Hoopaholic
02-11-2017, 09:05 AM
respectfully disagree. 6 seed is usually filled with pretty good teams. It's just a tough seed line to be on. *cough Seton Hall *cough

That's my point. It is a seed line used for power5 non title winners and if that is where DMV sits today with two more losses they could end up being bounced

RenoZag
02-11-2017, 09:06 AM
Endowment size

:clap:

Kong-Kool-Aid
02-11-2017, 09:07 AM
2-1 vs top 50.

thats what they were last year. They'll only get worse with a loss tonight

They don't beat Gonzaga once and the best the can hope for is a 2-3 record and the hope one of their 2 "okay" wins don't drop out of the top 50.

Zagcity
02-11-2017, 09:07 AM
Palms bracket has SMC at the 6 line



Also interesting in our bracket if it plays out, the 8/9 game winner could be California which would have a unique twist.

Kong-Kool-Aid
02-11-2017, 09:08 AM
Really, further proof that the new analytic metrics they will be moving to next year will be a welcome change.

RenoZag
02-11-2017, 09:09 AM
Lol....why??? Does it really matter if we are the 1st 1 seed or the 4th 1 seed

Probably not. FWIW, when Palm was asked (by Seth Davis )'what if GU goes undefeated' he didn't hesitate: he said he would be shocked if the Zags were not a # 1 seed.

PNW Zagfan
02-11-2017, 09:09 AM
Good... we've been "disrespected" as the 4th No. 1 Seed... Now take that motivation out on the Gaels!

Yes, yes, yes. Take it to the Gaels, make the Committee look like idiots!

Kong-Kool-Aid
02-11-2017, 09:10 AM
Probably not. FWIW, when Palm was asked 'what if GU goes undefeated' he didn't hesitate: he said he would be shocked if the Zags were not the # 1 overall seed.

He said he'd be shocked if they weren't a 1 seed, made no mention of #1 overall.

DixieZag
02-11-2017, 09:12 AM
Another way to look at it from the committee's eyes; If we win tonight, all we've got is a road win against a six seed.

ZagMan in Philly
02-11-2017, 09:13 AM
Lol....why??? Does it really matter if we are the 1st 1 seed or the 4th 1 seed

There is no margin for error if Zags want #1 seed.

DixieZag
02-11-2017, 09:15 AM
There is no margin for error if Zags want #1 seed.

Truth

75Zag
02-11-2017, 09:16 AM
The Committee may be truthful when they say they don't take conference affiliation into consideration, but they do admit that they take SOS into consideration, and GU's overall SOS is 92. Excluding WCC games, our SOS goes higher into the mid 50s. Power conference schools frequently have a SOS that goes lower when their nonconference games are excluded. So while the NCAA may not directly take conference affiliation into account, they do take into account the fact that our overall SOS has been dragged down by about 40 spots due to the weakness of the WCC.

Zagcity
02-11-2017, 09:17 AM
There is no margin for error if Zags want #1 seed.

None what so ever, pretty sad

U Zig, I Zag
02-11-2017, 09:17 AM
If we win out. Go in with no blemishes than we are a 1. Maybe top 1 or second. Not sure it matters. Not sure we can lose though and stay on 1 line. If today's announcement means anything. Really, Zags can't get a quality win from here on out. Even tonight. The aura of the Big12, ACC, etc so heavily weights those games and their conf tourneys. We just don't get that in the WCC.

bartruff1
02-11-2017, 09:19 AM
You don't have to consider the Conference to consider the teams that have been played. You can set the conference aside and simply ask....who did you play....who did you beat....where...??? SOS.

I have no problem with this at all. I doubt Gonzaga would be undefeated if it had played Nova, Kansas or Baylor's schedule.

I don't think it matters anyway, you win you advance .....and after the first game, all the teams are excellent..

RenoZag
02-11-2017, 09:19 AM
He said he'd be shocked if they weren't a 1 seed, made no mention of #1 overall.

Thanks for the correction, Kong.

TheZagPhish
02-11-2017, 09:20 AM
Meehan, Bracket preview show: Gonzaga No. 1 seed, fourth overall (http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2017/feb/11/bracket-preview-show-gonzaga-no-1-seed-fourth-over/)


Asked about Gonzaga being the fourth overall seed, committee chair Mark Hollis said, “An unblemished record is obviously something that put them on the one line. There’s a lot to play, I think there’s going to be movement. I think those No. 1s are very solid on that line as of (Saturday).”

23dpg
02-11-2017, 09:21 AM
He said he'd be shocked if they weren't a 1 seed, made no mention of #1 overall.

I'm pretty sure he said #1 overall. I don't think there's really any debate about being a one seed if undefeated.

Also, why it matters that GU is 4th? Because it affords the Zags very little margin of error. It could mean losing out on a one seed if we lose even one game, and with it the West. Besides the point it's just bs to have 3 teams ahead of them right now.

gonstu
02-11-2017, 09:23 AM
CBS knows what it's doing. Zags have a very good chance at going undefeated the rest of the way through the big dance (yes, I know the biggest obstacle is tonight). If zags are announced as overall #1 today and then are undefeated, it takes away one of the potential story lines for the selection sunday reveal show. Now, if zags win out, a big question going in will be 'did the zags do enough to take over the overall 1-seed?'

True it looks like if zags lose they could get bumped off the 1-line, but i don't think likely. Remember, at least a couple of those other 1-seed teams are likely to lose again too.

RenoZag
02-11-2017, 09:24 AM
I'm pretty sure he said #1 overall.



He did not. Kong is correct. Just rewound the DVR and Palm didn't say # 1 overall.

We can certainly hope GU wins out and has a shot at the number one overall. . .if Villanova wins out, there's no way the Zags will leapfrog them.

rennis
02-11-2017, 09:27 AM
None of it matters right now. SO much can and will change between today and Selection Sunday. don't be surprised if half of the teams on today's #1 and #2 lines move down and others move up.

Whoever wins the ACC tourney moves up to the #1 line, for example. So if North Carolina gets hot, you could even see them AND Virginia on the 1 line. (IMO)

RenoZag
02-11-2017, 09:36 AM
. . .on ESPN: http://www.espn.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/117646/what-the-committee-got-right-and-wrong-with-the-early-top-16-seeds


The four No. 1 seeds are clear unless or until a true ACC leader emerges. Gonzaga should be a little disappointed to be the fourth top seed. Once again, itís all about quality wins (and not much nuance).

The committee did a decent job adjusting to having their weakest No. 1 (Gonzaga) and weakest No. 2 (Oregon) both in the West, adding Virginia and West Virginia to that region. The overall true seed totals of the four regions, strongest to weakest, are South (32), Midwest (33), East (35) and West (36).

Zagger
02-11-2017, 09:37 AM
None of it matters right now. SO much can and will change between today and Selection Sunday. don't be surprised if half of the teams on today's #1 and #2 lines move down and others move up.

Whoever wins the ACC tourney moves up to the #1 line, for example. So if North Carolina gets hot, you could even see them AND Virginia on the 1 line. (IMO)

How true .... lots of games yet + all the conference tournaments. Quite a few 10-25 ranked teams are getting better. I think the team most likely not to move in ranking and NCCA seed is Gonzaga. A bit hinges on tonight though. Beat the Gaels!

23dpg
02-11-2017, 09:38 AM
He did not. Kong is correct. Just rewound the DVR and Palm didn't say # 1 overall.

We can certainly hope GU wins out and has a shot at the number one overall. . .if Villanova wins out, there's no way the Zags will leapfrog them.

Amazing. What a dumb question then. The fact that they're thinking "will GU be a 2 seed if undefeated" vs "will they be #1 overall" shows you how little respect Gonzaga still has with the committee. Good thing this isn't football.

Zagceo
02-11-2017, 09:38 AM
http://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/bracket-beat/2017-02-11/march-madness-top-16-seeds-revealed-first-ever-season

Larryzag
02-11-2017, 09:41 AM
If the Zags go undefeated and they don't get the overall #1 then I don't think the WCC will ever be able to get a team as overall #1.

Zagceo
02-11-2017, 10:03 AM
What is the point of asking No1 overall? Who wouldn't want to play closest to home?

Do they get to see brackets before choice ......take weakest path.....I doubt it.

MDABE80
02-11-2017, 10:06 AM
Nova will lose one or two more. Our job is to beat SMC today and again in the WCC tournament. We do that, we move up. No small task.
Other top 10 teams will lose too. It's a very fluid situation. I do think if we win today., we're 30-0 come tourney time. This might be a team of destiny. I'm getting that feeling.

sittingon50
02-11-2017, 10:09 AM
Good... we've been "disrespected" as the 4th No. 1 Seed... Now take that motivation out on the Gaels!

That's exactly right. Tonight, in front of God & the entire viewing nation.

Zags11
02-11-2017, 10:37 AM
Really, further proof that the new analytic metrics they will be moving to next year will be a welcome change.


There is no margin for error if Zags want #1 seed.

This. Shows a loss and we aren't a 1 seed anymore.

caduceus
02-11-2017, 10:44 AM
If the Zags go undefeated and they don't get the overall #1 then I don't think the WCC will ever be able to get a team as overall #1.

With this committee. If I recall correctly, this committee is essentially the same as last year's. Yeah, the one that screwed nearly every mid-major in the league in favor of middling power conference teams. I'm not the least surprised they stuck GU at the bottom of the 1-seeds. They'd likely put the Zags on the two line if they knew that wouldn't cause an uproar of epic proportions. Same old crap, different year.

Birddog
02-11-2017, 11:19 AM
It is what it is, Zags just need to win. It hasn't changed and it wont till they make a FF.

DixieZag
02-11-2017, 01:36 PM
None of it matters right now. SO much can and will change between today and Selection Sunday. don't be surprised if half of the teams on today's #1 and #2 lines move down and others move up.

Whoever wins the ACC tourney moves up to the #1 line, for example. So if North Carolina gets hot, you could even see them AND Virginia on the 1 line. (IMO)

I think it matters a lot. It says we flat cannot lose a game and stay a number one, at least if the other teams continue to win.

Additionally, I can see them bringing up strength of conference schedule if we lost one or two, but we haven't even let a team get within 10, so how does one talk about conference strength when one wins every game decisively then I don't know how one penalizes us for it.

And I don't think anyone is saying we'd be undefeated in the ACC or Big 12 or Big East, I just think it's clear we'd only have 2 or 3 losses, which puts us right in the same company as Nova, and definitely ahead of Kansas with a loss to Iowa State at home. It's kind of BS that games in the early-mid season are forgotten (any doubts if we beat Florida, ISU, AZ in the last 6 weeks we'd get more respect?) and count less.

TexasZagFan
02-11-2017, 01:48 PM
It is what it is, Zags just need to win. It hasn't changed and it wont till they make a FF.

This

RenoZag
02-11-2017, 01:55 PM
Yahoo! Sports Pat Forde weighs in on the Top 16 Reveal: http://sports.yahoo.com/news/top-takeaways-from-the-ncaa-tourney-selection-committees-first-in-season-seeding-show-184602839.html


∑ If there is one set of rankings that aligns most closely with the committee’s thinking to this point, it’s the dowdy old RPI – a metric that has been assailed in recent years as flawed and out of date bears closer resemblance to the committee’s top 16 than does the Pomeroy Ratings or the human polls (AP and USA Today).

Eleven of the 16 teams are within three spots of their RPI ranking. The only extreme outlier from the RPI is West Virginia, which is No. 14 with the committee and No. 33 in the RPI

The committee isn’t buying Gonzaga the way the voters and some computers are. The Zags are No. 1 with the media (AP), the coaches (USA Today), Pomeroy and Jeff Sagarin. In the committee hierarchy, Gonzaga is fourth – which is good enough to claim a No. 1 seed and stay in the West Region, but opens it up to tougher competition.

This is one sign of committee alignment with RPI, which ranks Gonzaga 10th.

∑ The committee, which is chaired by a Big Ten conference athletic director (Michigan State’s Mark Hollis), is mighty unimpressed by the Big Ten to date. Six leagues are represented in the top 16, and the Big Ten isn’t one of them. Everyone outside the Midwest knew this was a down year for the Big 10, and here’s the proof. That’s despite having a team that ranks in the AP and USA Today top 10 (Wisconsin) and another that is in the top 12 with Pomeroy and Sagarin (Purdue).

This also aligns with RPI, which has Wisconsin 18th and Purdue 20th.

Zagceo
02-11-2017, 02:23 PM
Link
http://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/ncaa-early-top-16-surprises-kentucky-too-high-gonzaga-too-low-duke-just-right/


. Gonzaga coach Mark Few is one of the coaches at the forefront of the movement for more transparency. He may not like what he sees. His undefeated Bulldogs were placed fourth among the No. 1 seeds. I found this to be particularly surprising since the committee was much higher on Florida than they probably should have been, and that is one of Gonzaga's better wins.
They also beat Arizona, which is among in the top 16. Villanova, for example, has only one win against the teams revealed today. Gonzaga's overall schedule is not as strong as the other three, or really as strong as many of the teams on this list. Strength of schedule is a significant factor for the committee. If you are a Gonzaga fan, this should make you nervous. It is possible that the Bulldogs could win out and still not be a No. 1 seed.

Coach Crazy
02-11-2017, 03:00 PM
There needs to be a real discussion about SOS. If you've got a certain amount of wins in the Top 50, and are not extremely outpaced in 51-100 win...then the rest (unless losses) really should carry very little weight. You could even measure some aggregate margin between the highest and lowest of the 51-100 to see how much discrepancy there is. And then weight accordingly.

We should be past this kind of thinking.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

VinnyZag
02-11-2017, 03:51 PM
Someone on Twitter pointed out that at this point in 2016, Iowa would have been a one seed. It ended up getting a 7.

Point being, there's a lot of season left and nothing that was "revealed" today matters all that much.

Plus, who cares if they get the No. 1 overall? Better to have a favorable draw, which Oregon/Virginia/W.Virginia would be.

DixieZag
02-11-2017, 03:53 PM
Lots of good points laid out.

Still, as some have said, if we go undefeated, it truly does mean that no WCC could ever be ranked top seed. BS when you go undefeated.

Once and Future Zag
02-11-2017, 03:59 PM
So am I right in understanding, while there are only 2 teams that have both top-10 offensive and defensive efficiency, one is only the fourth best team, and the other is a FOUR seed?

WVU may be inconsistent, but they ARE the 2nd best balanced team in the country in terms of elite offensive and defensive prowess.

MontanaCoyote
02-11-2017, 06:47 PM
Should be no less than a 2 #1 seed. We got screwed, Slot, Phillips and Star.

Zag4Hire
02-11-2017, 06:54 PM
So all speculative so put money up for what it is worth but...

Get #1 seed out West? Who cares about rest.

Truth be told--if you give me the 2/3/4 as Oregon/Virginia/WVU vs the rest of the top 2/3/4, I will take it any day of the week. The other combos have teams that make me a bit nervous (Louisville, UCLA, Free Shoes, & UNC)

DixieZag
02-11-2017, 07:06 PM
Zag4Hire - good points.

A little frustrating that this win likely doesn't impress them all that much since our thrashing of SMC at home didn't impress them that much.

I think that only gets us to a 3rd number one. Cranks me a bit that Kansas (home loss to Iowa State, 3 losses) is 2nd and Baylor (Bilas was shocked they were even a one) are ahead of us.

Just a job in my mind, good non-conf and no losses, how does a team bust through if not that way?

CDC84
02-11-2017, 07:09 PM
The bottom line is if Gonzaga enters the dance unblemished, and if they get anything but the number one overall seed, the committee is going to get absolutely hammered.

Zagceo
02-11-2017, 07:17 PM
The bottom line is if Gonzaga enters the dance unblemished, and if they get anything but the number one overall seed, the committee is going to get absolutely hammered.

How do they justify Zags jumping Villanova if we both win out?

btzag
02-11-2017, 07:21 PM
Uuuuhhhh......

Did anyone notice that based on the top analytical measure they had the following in the zags region???

- zags 1 seed #1 overall
- Oregon 2 seed #19 overall
- Virginia 3 seed #3 overall
- West Virginia 4 seed #4 overall

Just to recap...that is #1, 3, 4 and 19 in the same region and nobody in the College bball world is mentioning this???

bartruff1
02-11-2017, 07:27 PM
Gonzaga is the only undefeated D1 team....ranked # 1 in both polls .....seeded #1 in the West in the Tournament ....winning the WCC Conference.... life is good

DixieZag
02-11-2017, 07:27 PM
How do they justify Zags jumping Villanova if we both win out?

If Nova wins out, I see no chance of us being the number one. They aren't impressed to this point, when Nova's losses are fresher, don't see it happening.

CDC is right. If we win out and don't get it, the outrage among the analysts will be huge, and our guys will have yet another reason to be furious.

CDC84
02-11-2017, 07:31 PM
How do they justify Zags jumping Villanova if we both win out?

Look at the amount of teams in history who have entered the dance unblemished. That alone should allow them to jump Nova. Like Bilas, I didn't have major issues with the committee seeding Nova above GU right now.

btzag
02-11-2017, 07:33 PM
Responding to another poster...what analytics or measures did they use? Or did they even use any at all?? Crazy that ALL other major sports leagues are implementing analytics and college bball is still implementing eye test measures.

Zagsker
02-11-2017, 08:13 PM
Zag4Hire - good points.

A little frustrating that this win likely doesn't impress them all that much since our thrashing of SMC at home didn't impress them that much.

I think that only gets us to a 3rd number one. Cranks me a bit that Kansas (home loss to Iowa State, 3 losses) is 2nd and Baylor (Bilas was shocked they were even a one) are ahead of us.

Just a job in my mind, good non-conf and no losses, how does a team bust through if not that way?

"Bust through" what?

We are predicted a 1 seed right now...I am not grasping the "discrimination" that some voice about this....just seems being outraged for the sake of being pissed about something, just because

Gonzdb8
02-11-2017, 08:20 PM
"Bust through" what?

We are predicted a 1 seed right now...I am not grasping the "discrimination" that some voice about this....just seems being outraged for the sake of being pissed about something, just because

being a #1 seed is great, but if the metric the committee uses structurally guarantees that we can never be the top overall #1 seed based on our conference affiliation then i'd say we have something very real and tangible to be pissed about.

DixieZag
02-11-2017, 08:27 PM
"Bust through" what?

We are predicted a 1 seed right now...I am not grasping the "discrimination" that some voice about this....just seems being outraged for the sake of being pissed about something, just because

Not at all. I'm not the one upset about Bilas' comment.

And, no, I do think that the number of seed you are on the one line matters, and I do think it's absurd that those 3 teams are ahead of us with all with 2 losses and we don't have any, plus all that Kempon adjusted stuff putting us higher. If you don't believe me, ask all the analysts on CBS and ESPN who said they were surprised.

Yes, we're a one seed, but that doesn't mean we didn't deserve to be higher and it is frustrating when there is apparently absolutely nothing we can do to bust through to the top team. We're now 7-0 against top 50 teams. Tell me how that's not discrimination?

Zagceo
02-11-2017, 08:35 PM
Look at the amount of teams in history who have entered the dance unblemished. That alone should allow them to jump Nova. Like Bilas, I didn't have major issues with the committee seeding Nova above GU right now.

With that logic.....why are we placed below Villanova as undefeated?

maynard g krebs
02-11-2017, 09:24 PM
The gaels won't be in without beating Gonzaga or winning the WCC tourny.

They have what, one somewhat decent win?

Nevada (19-5)along with Dayton.

Body of work says they don't need to beat the Zags to be in. Top 20 both Kenpom and RPI. 2-2 v RPI top 50, 5-3 v RPI top 100

jpn17
02-11-2017, 09:35 PM
Nevada (19-5)along with Dayton.

Body of work says they don't need to beat the Zags to be in. Top 20 both Kenpom and RPI. 2-2 v RPI top 50, 5-3 v RPI top 100

I don't think you'll find anyone on here who disagrees that SMC is a tournament team. They are easily one of the top 68 in the country, no doubt. That said, if SMC does go 0-3 against Gonzaga I do worry about how this committee will view them. They have not been kind to teams in non P5 conferences.

maynard g krebs
02-11-2017, 09:41 PM
I don't think you'll find anyone on here who disagrees that SMC is a tournament team.

There are a number of people, incl the one I responded to, that are saying that SMC gets left out if they don't beat the Zags. I think their current seed projection/rankings make it pretty clear that if they only lose to the Zags and go something like 29-4 incl WCC tourney they are in. Currently projected a 6 seed; I don't think one more loss to the #1 team drops them below an 11 seed. Around 29 wins w/ 4 losses puts them at around a 10 seed at worst given other metrics. Their end of year ranking last year wasn't nearly as high, and they were still close to the bubble as a 1 seed, I think, in NIT.

soccerdud
02-11-2017, 10:24 PM
There are a number of people, incl the one I responded to, that are saying that SMC gets left out if they don't beat the Zags. I think their current seed projection/rankings make it pretty clear that if they only lose to the Zags and go something like 29-4 incl WCC tourney they are in. Currently projected a 6 seed; I don't think one more loss to the #1 team drops them below an 11 seed. Around 29 wins w/ 4 losses puts them at around a 10 seed at worst given other metrics. Their end of year ranking last year wasn't nearly as high, and they were still close to the bubble as a 1 seed, I think, in NIT.

similar to what was stated in the thread about whether gonzaga would get the #1 ranking a couple of weeks back-- the question is not "should they get in", but rather "will they get in". for the former, all of the things that you reference are a great argument. for the latter, when predicting the conclusion come to by a deliberative body (in this case the NCAA committee), you have to take into account the previous actions of the body, including these facts:

1) they weren't a 1 seed in the NIT last year, they were a 2 (i.e. next 4 out). their top-50 profile will look very similar to last year if they don't beat us at least once. likewise, we almost certainly wouldn't have made the tourney without the autobid last season.
2) the ncaa committee chair said, and i quote: "“The things you want to look for … are who did you play, who did you beat, and where did you play them? Those are the three most important general terms to look at."
(http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/01/17/ncaa-tournament-selection-committee-chair-mark-hollis-attends-usf-game-wait-what/). while @dayton and at home against nevada are decent wins, they aren't better than beating us twice in conference (once home and once away) last year.
3) the committee was very p5-centric last year, and that continued TODAY with the top-16 reveal (wherein the rankings followed RPI much more closely than they did the advanced stats, which is where SMC shines)

they are clearly a top-25 team in my mind. but they should be very worried about their spot in the tournament if they don't beat us this season. it's wrong. but it's also probably the truth. it certainly isn't clear that they will be in, all said and done, without beating us in vegas.

i hope they are in. they should be. but the committee are idiots and smc looks a LOT like last year in every way that the committee has proven that they care about.

ScrapironJim
02-11-2017, 11:45 PM
I took a step back and saw the following:
1. Count our blessings that Oregon, UCLA, and Arizona beat each other up over the past 30 days. Imagine if any one of them had gone undefeated over that period. They would be #1 in the West and we would be #2.
2. Being a #4 will keep most of the trolls at bay.
3. Being a #4 allows us to keep the chip on our shoulder. We lose the chip factor if we are #1 overall.
4. Being the #1 overall would make us play scared and put a chip on the shoulders of all of the teams who play us.
5. For the sake of public opinion, I would rather have the media analysts on our side against the committee. All of the fans - except those supporting the overall #1 - will be angry at the committee like they are every year. As a #4 we will probably get a bit of fan support around the country.
6. Finally, we have control of our fate. We still have the chip and we can be 33-0 at tournament time . . . just win seven more and take the #1 seed in the West.

WE ARE VERY GOOD, and we have been lucky from where I stand.

PS - the numbers 2, 3, and 4 in our bracket look like the weakest of the four bracket zones.

CDC84
02-12-2017, 01:03 AM
Decourcy at TSN about how Gonzaga was screwed by the committee in their sweet 16 preview:

http://www.sportingnews.com/ncaa-bas...i10a2q6445mgf2



Perhaps this is most notable in regards to Gonzaga. To reach 25-0 in a season is impressive. To make it all the way through a conference season and a conference tournament with a perfect record is one of the rarest achievements in the sport. If Gonzaga were to do that, along with non-conference wins over Florida and Iowa State and Arizona — none of them at home — perhaps the committee members would be more impressed.

However, they should have been impressed enough with the Zags’ work to date to make them the overall No. 1.

None of the three teams ranked ahead of them — overall No. 1 Villanova, then Kansas, followed by Baylor — has accomplished enough to trump a perfect record with several high-quality victims.

A simple breakdown:

— Gonzaga’s perfect records includes three wins against the Ratings Percentage Index Top 25, three more against teams ranked 26-50.
— Villanova is 4-1 against the top 25, 3-0 against 26-50. Villanova also has a loss outside the top 50.
— Kansas is 3-0 against the RPI top 25, 5-2 against 26-50. Kansas lost to a team outside the top 50.
— Baylor is 3-1 against the top 25, 7-2 against 26-50.

Hollis indicated these were clearly the four No. 1 seeds at this point. “None of the twos are really in the conversation on the 1 line,” he said. That certainly makes sense. But there’s nothing other than big-conference preference to indicate the latter three should be ranked above Gonzaga

gu03alum
02-12-2017, 09:02 AM
I'm late to this thread, but I just read that Gonzaga was the 4th number 1. That's bull####. I'm sick of the disrespect given to Gonzaga. I hope Gonzaga proves all the haters wrong this year.

billyberu
02-12-2017, 09:16 AM
"For the sake of public opinion, I would rather have the media analysts on our side against the committee. All of the fans - except those supporting the overall #1 - will be angry at the committee like they are every year. As a #4 we will probably get a bit of fan support around the country."

It sure didn't help with Wyoming. Normally, I would begrudgingly agree with this sentiment, but not this year. It's all about talent and heady play; fan sentiment is not a factor.

Sent from my SM-G930T using Tapatalk

maynard g krebs
02-12-2017, 10:17 AM
similar to what was stated in the thread about whether gonzaga would get the #1 ranking a couple of weeks back-- the question is not "should they get in", but rather "will they get in". for the former, all of the things that you reference are a great argument. for the latter, when predicting the conclusion come to by a deliberative body (in this case the NCAA committee), you have to take into account the previous actions of the body, including these facts:

1) they weren't a 1 seed in the NIT last year, they were a 2 (i.e. next 4 out). their top-50 profile will look very similar to last year if they don't beat us at least once. likewise, we almost certainly wouldn't have made the tourney without the autobid last season.
2) the ncaa committee chair said, and i quote: "“The things you want to look for … are who did you play, who did you beat, and where did you play them? Those are the three most important general terms to look at."
(http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/01/17/ncaa-tournament-selection-committee-chair-mark-hollis-attends-usf-game-wait-what/). while @dayton and at home against nevada are decent wins, they aren't better than beating us twice in conference (once home and once away) last year.
3) the committee was very p5-centric last year, and that continued TODAY with the top-16 reveal (wherein the rankings followed RPI much more closely than they did the advanced stats, which is where SMC shines)

they are clearly a top-25 team in my mind. but they should be very worried about their spot in the tournament if they don't beat us this season. it's wrong. but it's also probably the truth. it certainly isn't clear that they will be in, all said and done, without beating us in vegas.

i hope they are in. they should be. but the committee are idiots and smc looks a LOT like last year in every way that the committee has proven that they care about.

Well stated as usual. I guess we'll see, as I don't think SMC can score enough on the Zags to win this year. But on the RPI subject, has a top 20 RPI team ever been left out? I suppose theirs might fall to 25 or so.

SunDevilGolfZag
02-12-2017, 10:19 AM
I wonder if this Committee is fully comprised of people, all BCS politics aside, who have an actual deep understanding of the game of basketball. I sure hope so

seacatfan
02-12-2017, 11:02 AM
In the end, does it really matter if the Zags are the #1 overall seed or not? Can you name the #1 overall seed from any previous year of the Tourney (without googling)? Is there any kind of statistical correlation between being the #1 overall and winning the whole thing, or even reaching the Final 4? Probably not.

Zagceo
02-12-2017, 11:09 AM
In the end, does it really matter if the Zags are the #1 overall seed or not? Can you name the #1 overall seed from any previous year of the Tourney (without googling)? Is there any kind of statistical correlation between being the #1 overall and winning the whole thing, or even reaching the Final 4? Probably not.

no.....but that's not my point. The debate is about stats IMO. All the stats point in our direction......yet we are positioned at 4.....it's a debate not a wine festival like some want to make it. ;-)

soccerdud
02-12-2017, 11:17 AM
Well stated as usual. I guess we'll see, as I don't think SMC can score enough on the Zags to win this year. But on the RPI subject, has a top 20 RPI team ever been left out? I suppose theirs might fall to 25 or so.

thanks :).

the truth is that i don't know. it might or might not be lower than any team left out of the tournament previously. and it might or might not be a strong enough argument (along with their gaudy w/l record, probable no bad losses, etc) to get them in. at this point there's reasonable arguments on both sides, which makes me want to play devils advocate whenever anyone wants to suggest it's a settled issue either way. as you said, we'll find out soon enough.

i'm just super glad that we aren't asking that question about ourselves this season.

gonzagafan62
02-12-2017, 11:21 AM
Well stated as usual. I guess we'll see, as I don't think SMC can score enough on the Zags to win this year. But on the RPI subject, has a top 20 RPI team ever been left out? I suppose theirs might fall to 25 or so.

Missouri state one year was in upper 20s and was left out. It's happened before. Think st bonaventure last year was 30

gu03alum
02-12-2017, 01:25 PM
In the end, does it really matter if the Zags are the #1 overall seed or not? Can you name the #1 overall seed from any previous year of the Tourney (without googling)? Is there any kind of statistical correlation between being the #1 overall and winning the whole thing, or even reaching the Final 4? Probably not.

Yes, it matters because gonzaga will be the first team bumped from the 1 seed when some team that's a two goes on a run and wins their conference tournament.

maynard g krebs
02-12-2017, 03:13 PM
I wonder if this Committee is fully comprised of people, all BCS politics aside, who have an actual deep understanding of the business/economics of basketball.

That's how I'd edit it.