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former1dog
01-31-2017, 06:52 AM
Is the data and analysis that Ken Pomeroy utilizes strong enough to support the following statement:

Based on statistics, Gonzaga is the best team in college basketball.

TexasZagFan
01-31-2017, 07:05 AM
https://cdn.meme.am/cache/instances/folder622/500x/75202622.jpg

thegloriousgoateeofKP
01-31-2017, 07:13 AM
Is the data and analysis that Ken Pomeroy utilizes strong enough to support the following statement:

Based on statistics, Gonzaga is the best team in college basketball.

Yes.

Not only are they the best team in college basketball this year, they're almost 3 points per 100 possessions BETTER than Virginia, the second-best team. That's a larger margin than Villanova had over the #2 team last year, much bigger than the margin Louisville held over the #2 team at the end of the '14 season, bigger than Louisville's margin over Florida in 2013, etc.

The season is far from over, of course, but not only are we the best team right now this year, if the season ended today, we'd go down as one of the best teams this DECADE. ('15 Kentucky and '15 Wisconsin are in the conversation, too.)

DukeSilver
01-31-2017, 07:35 AM
Based on statistics, Gonzaga is the best team in college basketball.

Statistics are a sticky thing, as there are a lot of different ways to apply them in order to produce the desired metric - in this case, "How good is this basketball team?".

KenPom is far from the only statistician who seeks to answer this question, as there are plenty of others with their own algorithms which take different factors into account, or weight them differently, etc. But the only way to judge how accurate a particular statistical prediction can be, is to compare it's results to real-life outcomes. On this front, KenPom tends to perform very well, which is why it's followed so closely by basketball diehards.

So, the short answer is yes and no. KenPom's statistics support your conclusion, but many others (BPI, for example) do not. It's up to you to argue why KenPom should hold more weight than the others.

MontanaCoyote
01-31-2017, 08:55 AM
Good posts. Can't stat HEART though, and it might all come down to that.

kitzbuel
01-31-2017, 09:00 AM
I think you have to also understand what is meant by best team. Best team right now? The statistics do bear that out.

However, best team for NCAA basketball is determined by the winner of the NCAA tournament.

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Coach Crazy
01-31-2017, 09:24 AM
I think it would be interesting to have a collection of statistical aggregates that minimized redundancy and contradiction, and at least made the discussion more meaningful.

I am surprised that Ken and others are being asked to convene with the NCAA to discuss better metrics. On some level it will decrease the legitimacy of conference and east coast bias.


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amaronizag
01-31-2017, 09:31 AM
If every team played every other team one time (350 games), and the AdjEm was calculated for every team, and GU had the highest AdjEM, then you could conclude GU was the best team based on AdjEM. But since the AdjEM (AdjOE minus AdjDE) for each team in KenPom is based only on the teams each team played, all things are not equal, so you can't draw the conclusion that GU is the best team based on the KenPom AdjEM. You can say that based on AdjEM, GU is the best team in the country. And it's possible that the GU AdjEM based on playing every team (350 games) would still have GU ahead of all teams, but we don't know that, so we can't say it. That being said, I think GU CAN beat every team in this years Tournament on a given night. If GU wins the NCAA tournament, does that mean they were the best NCAA basketball team in 2017? If GU wins the National Championship will I be exclaiming GU is the best team in the USA??? ABSOLUTELY!!!!!

mzimmer
01-31-2017, 09:35 AM
What a great thread topic. I believe it stands on it's own. Especially if we don't get caught up in the substrate.

Is it enough? No, but should it provide base and structural support? I'd say yes. It tries to take the emotion out of the analysis. How many times have you been at a bar arguing a point with your pals. Most of the arguments are about what your GUT feeling and who you are as a FAN. Analytics and Metrics try to separate fact from fiction. Does it account for everything. NOPE! Gonzaga is a perfect example. The way you play as a team relies greatly upon the ability of individuals to give of themselves for the sake of the team. An argument could be said for Collins (again, we have a ton of All Americans come through our program - so it's what we know). If Collins was the type of young man that, like some AA's, was concerned about only his self, you wouldn't be as good - hell, he'd be gone. If Karnowski was a selfish player and didn't enjoy the assist as much as the bucket, you wouldn't be as good - and so on, and so on.

What a great topic to debate. Thanks!!!

maynard g krebs
01-31-2017, 11:49 AM
Teamrankings.com has Kentucky first, with GU and WVa tied for second, close behind.

Sagarin has WVa first, a few hundredths of a % pt ahead of GU, with Kentucky third.

Massey's composite has GU first, followed by Nova and Kansas.

TexasZagFan
01-31-2017, 12:57 PM
What a great thread topic. I believe it stands on it's own. Especially if we don't get caught up in the substrate.

Is it enough? No, but should it provide base and structural support? I'd say yes. It tries to take the emotion out of the analysis. How many times have you been at a bar arguing a point with your pals. Most of the arguments are about what your GUT feeling and who you are as a FAN. Analytics and Metrics try to separate fact from fiction. Does it account for everything. NOPE! Gonzaga is a perfect example. The way you play as a team relies greatly upon the ability of individuals to give of themselves for the sake of the team. An argument could be said for Collins (again, we have a ton of All Americans come through our program - so it's what we know). If Collins was the type of young man that, like some AA's, was concerned about only his self, you wouldn't be as good - hell, he'd be gone. If Karnowski was a selfish player and didn't enjoy the assist as much as the bucket, you wouldn't be as good - and so on, and so on.

What a great topic to debate. Thanks!!!

Gonzaga develops their players into All-Americans. So there! :cheers: