PDA

View Full Version : A cautionary tale



beaverzag
01-28-2017, 05:09 PM
Utah up 28 on OSU with 12 left to play. Coach K takes out his starters, Beavs get within six, Utes hold on to win by 8.

Those of you who want Few to protect the starters need to be very careful what you wish for.

seacatfan
01-28-2017, 05:19 PM
I didn't follow that game today, but thanks for posting this. I've seen 15-20 pt. leads disappear frequently and even 25-30 pt. leads occasionally. You know for all the bellyaching about leaving starters in w/ 12, 10 or 8 minutes left (heck I think it started at the 16:30 mark of the last game), it would pale in comparison to the bellyaching if the Zags coughed up a huge lead w/ the scrubs in and had to hang on at the end. It ain't over til it's over and almost no lead is completely safe.

seacatfan
01-28-2017, 05:20 PM
And furthermore West Coast K is gonna get killed on message boards and the twittersphere or whatever for pulling starters w/ 12 minutes left.

gonzagafan62
01-28-2017, 05:21 PM
Lon Kruger did same thing all year last season

thespywhozaggedme
01-28-2017, 08:54 PM
We play in the WCC, not the PAC12. Context is key.

thegloriousgoateeofKP
01-28-2017, 09:22 PM
Utah up 28 on OSU with 12 left to play. Coach K takes out his starters, Beavs get within six, Utes hold on to win by 8.

Those of you who want Few to protect the starters need to be very careful what you wish for.

1. I know 6 points seems close, but that game was never in doubt. See Utah's win probability, per KenPom: http://imgur.com/a/JSTDb

http://imgur.com/a/JSTDb

2. Did you see how thoroughly Jones and Rui dominated tonight? They were swatting Pepperdine at will. The lead GREW. Our 2nd tier guys are superior athletes to other WCC teams' starters.

3. Silas Melson — aka our do-it-all shutdown perimeter defender — was in the game with the Zags up by FORTY. C'mon.

thespywhozaggedme
01-28-2017, 09:34 PM
1. I know 6 points seems close, but that game was never in doubt. See Utah's win probability, per KenPom: http://imgur.com/a/JSTDb

http://imgur.com/a/JSTDb

2. Did you see how thoroughly Jones and Rui dominated tonight? They were swatting Pepperdine at will The lead GREW. Our 2nd tier guys are superior athletes to other WCC teams' starters.

3. Silas Melson — aka our do-it-all shutdown perimeter defender — was in the game with the Zags up by FORTY. C'mon.

Excellent post. it's not an apples to apples comparison when people talk about P5 conferences versus us in the WCC. Basically what people are going to have to do is in their mind replace us with Kentucky or Kansas or Villanova and put them in the WCC and see if they still have the same opinion.

gonstu
01-28-2017, 09:34 PM
1. I know 6 points seems close, but that game was never in doubt. See Utah's win probability, per KenPom: http://imgur.com/a/JSTDb

http://imgur.com/a/JSTDb

2. Did you see how thoroughly Jones and Rui dominated tonight? They were swatting Pepperdine at will The lead GREW. Our 2nd tier guys are superior athletes to other WCC teams' starters.

3. Silas Melson aka our do-it-all shutdown perimeter defender was in the game with the Zags up by FORTY. C'mon.

They did look very good but it also looked like pepp had lost their will to fight - looked to me they just wanted to get to the locker room. But yes, the last on the court still looked very good. Rui still looks not quite right all the time, a great athlete but maybe not comfortable or knowledgeable of running the offense?

Ezag
01-28-2017, 10:24 PM
We play in the WCC, not the PAC12. Context is key.

Exactly, WCC for our team definitely sucks

Zagricultural
01-29-2017, 06:23 AM
Players want to play. Wouldn't you? These are kids for crying out loud
Players need to play, and I personally think this team is best served to give our best players plenty of minutes. Build cohesion, momentum, seeding, etc... Going into the tourney. I am personally completely on board with the rotation. Am I super nervous about an injury? You bet! Do I think it is best for the team to always sit the top 8 with 10 minutes left? No I don't.

Zagricultural
01-29-2017, 06:31 AM
We play in the WCC, not the PAC12. Context is key.

USF beat Utah... Oregon State is terrible. Just because they are in the PAC 12 doesn't mean they are any good. Don't believe the hype...

gonzagafan62
01-29-2017, 06:56 AM
USF beat Utah... Oregon State is terrible. Just because they are in the PAC 12 doesn't mean they are any good. Don't believe the hype...

Need I remind anyone that Gonzaga beat Utah last year in tournament and UCLA, the year before that. Both PAC 12 teams intournamwnt after WCC tournament. People really need to let the conference thing goes. It has no bearing on what happens in march. None. Zip. Zippo. Oh and we beat Washington and Arizona this year. USF beat Utah, St Mary's beat Stanford.

maynard g krebs
01-29-2017, 12:22 PM
1. I know 6 points seems close, but that game was never in doubt. See Utah's win probability, per KenPom

Larry K put his regulars back in. Apparently he thought it was. Six points is two turnovers and two threes. That's close enough for doubt. There's also the mental side of giving up a lead that size, and how it effects a team's psyche going forward.

thegloriousgoateeofKP
01-29-2017, 12:31 PM
Larry K put his regulars back in. Apparently he thought it was. Six points is two turnovers and two threes. That's close enough for doubt. There's also the mental side of giving up a lead that size, and how it effects a team's psyche going forward.

Close enough to warrant the starters going back in, sure.

Close enough, with so little time remaining, to actually worry about it, or to actually let it affect your strategy moving forward? Hardly.

Keep in mind, the vast majority of 20+ point leads don't get within 6.

ETA: "2 turnovers and two threes" happening in 4 consecutive possessions...what would you guess the chances of that are?

Let's suppose that you turn the ball over on 1/every 5 possessions, and average 40% from three.

Do some math for me: .2 x .2 x .4 x .4 ... that's the chance of that all happening right in a row. And even IF that happens, Utah still would've had the last possession in regulation. And if they had missed, there would've been a 50/50 overtime session.

seacatfan
01-29-2017, 12:44 PM
Who cares what the statistical odds are? It could happen. It has happened at some point. There is nothing good about seeing a 28 point lead dwindle to 6.

thegloriousgoateeofKP
01-29-2017, 12:47 PM
Who cares what the statistical odds are? It could happen. It has happened at some point. There is nothing good about seeing a 28 point lead dwindle to 6.

Seeing a 28-point win turn into a 6-point win is a lot better than seeing NWG, Shem, J3, Perkins, Tillie, Collins, Silas, or Matthews sprain/break/tear a ligament/bone/joint/muscle.

The lead dwindling has approximately 0 effect on our ultimate title chances. An injury has a major effect. This is real simple risk/reward analysis

bartruff1
01-29-2017, 12:50 PM
I think Mark knows what he is doing...

thegloriousgoateeofKP
01-29-2017, 12:52 PM
I think Mark knows what he is doing...

https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/appeal-to-authority

kitzbuel
01-29-2017, 01:04 PM
They did look very good but it also looked like pepp had lost their will to fight - looked to me they just wanted to get to the locker room. But yes, the last on the court still looked very good. Rui still looks not quite right all the time, a great athlete but maybe not comfortable or knowledgeable of running the offense?

Pep folded.

maynard g krebs
01-29-2017, 01:14 PM
Close enough to warrant the starters going back in, sure.

Close enough, with so little time remaining, to actually worry about it, or to actually let it affect your strategy moving forward? Hardly.

Keep in mind, the vast majority of 20+ point leads don't get within 6.

ETA: "2 turnovers and two threes" happening in 4 consecutive possessions...what would you guess the chances of that are?

Let's suppose that you turn the ball over on 1/every 5 possessions, and average 40% from three.

Do some math for me: .2 x .2 x .4 x .4 ... that's the chance of that all happening right in a row. And even IF that happens, Utah still would've had the last possession in regulation. And if they had missed, there would've been a 50/50 overtime session.

In 2007, Oregon was on the road at Rice, and down 9 or 10 with about 50 seconds to go. Tajuan Porter hit 3 consecutive threes, Rice turned it over a time or 2 and missed a couple at the line. Then Aaron Brooks hit the game winning 3 in the last few seconds. The Ducks then traveled on to Georgetown and got a big upset over the Roy Hibbert team, and it springboarded their elite 8 season.

.2 x .2 x .4x .4 doesn't always matter.

thegloriousgoateeofKP
01-29-2017, 01:21 PM
In 2007, Oregon was on the road at Rice, and down 9 or 10 with about 50 seconds to go. Tajuan Porter hit 3 consecutive threes, Rice turned it over a time or 2 and missed a couple at the line. Then Aaron Brooks hit the game winning 3 in the last few seconds. The Ducks then traveled on to Georgetown and got a big upset over the Roy Hibbert team, and it springboarded their elite 8 season.

.2 x .2 x .4x .4 doesn't always matter.

Which has happened more often in the history of college basketball:

incredible comebacks that are so drastic you remember them 10 years later .....


or

injuries?

maynard g krebs
01-29-2017, 01:23 PM
Which has happened more often in the history of college basketball:

incredible comebacks that are so drastic you remember them 10 years later .....


or

injuries?

Most injuries happen in practice (Karno). Better stop practicing.

seacatfan
01-29-2017, 01:23 PM
That's what I'm saying maynard. Throw the odds out the window. If you are the team that coughs up a big lead and loses, nobody wants to hear about statistics. I remember another very famous game where Duke erased a double digit deficit w/ less than a minute to play and beat Maryland. This year the UO women scored 8 points in 10 freaking seconds to steal a win. This kind of stuff DOES happen.

thegloriousgoateeofKP
01-29-2017, 01:36 PM
That's what I'm saying maynard. Throw the odds out the window. If you are the team that coughs up a big lead and loses, nobody wants to hear about statistics. I remember another very famous game where Duke erased a double digit deficit w/ less than a minute to play and beat Maryland. This year the UO women scored 8 points in 10 freaking seconds to steal a win. This kind of stuff DOES happen.

But it's RARER than a major injury!

And the cost of losing one game, if it happens (maybe a slightly lower seed? Maybe we play in Sacramento instead of SLC) isn't likely to harm our Final Four chances. A torn achilles by Shem or NWG basically takes us out of the running for the National Title

thegloriousgoateeofKP
01-29-2017, 01:37 PM
Most injuries happen in practice (Karno). Better stop practicing.

No one is saying to stop practicing. Of course not.

But let me ask you this: Let's say you could achieve the exact same benefits in terms of team chemistry, skill improvement, physical endurance...by practicing for 5 minutes less per day. Would you do it?

GoZags
01-29-2017, 03:55 PM
No one is saying to stop practicing. Of course not.

But let me ask you this: Let's say you could achieve the exact same benefits in terms of team chemistry, skill improvement, physical endurance...by practicing for 5 minutes less per day. Would you do it?

Or how about this .... is it possible that since GU's Top 5 leading scorers (and 6 of the 8 man rotation) weren't on the floor last season ... the rotation (with a whole 22 games worth of experience) still needs time to develop their on-court chemistry? Perhaps that Few guy believes that it makes sense to keep the rotation in with 10-12 minutes left in a one sided game because the guys haven't learned everything there is to know about playing in the GU system and playing with each other. That's my belief (rather than believe that Fewie doesn't know what he's doing and is putting the Zags' future (and the guys' health) at risk for keeping them in the game until 5-6 minutes are left).