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Outraged
08-26-2016, 07:55 PM
After last seasons pre-season hype it's interesting to see the pendelum swing so far the other way this year. This has to be the most subdued summer banter I have seen since hopping onto
these boards with a 56k modem. Last year it was about the final four and the biggest and best front court in the country. Even Few uttered the word "final four".

This year we're probably better overall but we seem reluctant to eat crow again and all we can muster is a sly tight lipped smile.

DixieZag
08-26-2016, 07:59 PM
Perhaps last year's cautionary tale about ups/downs (one shot from E-8, one game from not making tourney) has cautioned everyone over too much hype.



Probably not.

Zagdawg
08-26-2016, 08:06 PM
Its amazing how one injury can change a season ---- very happy the guys were able to overcome the injury to Big K and still make a run at a solid season.

Keeping fingers crossed that we don't get bit by the injury bug this year.

bartruff1
08-26-2016, 08:10 PM
My expectations are always the same.....compete for the WCC Championship.....get to the WCC Championship game.....hopefully get into the NCAA....then it is a krap shoot....

amaronizag
08-27-2016, 07:25 AM
I have no problem stating my expectation for this year's team. I expect Elite 8 and I predict Final Four. This is the most talent GU has EVER had.

zag67
08-27-2016, 09:14 AM
I also think many people who had high expectations forget the injury to PK. Without that injury I still believe we would have been an elite 8 and maybe more. Yes I again have high expectations, but like was stated earlier, when you get to March madness, it is a crap shoot and anything can and will happen. I look forward to having a team with super chemistry, good leadership and no injuries. That happens and we will be fine and with that I think that the sky is the limit.

jazzdelmar
08-27-2016, 09:18 AM
I also think many people who had high expectations forget the injury to PK. Without that injury I still believe we would have been an elite 8 and maybe more. Yes I again have high expectations, but like was stated earlier, when you get to March madness, it is a crap shoot and anything can and will happen. I look forward to having a team with super chemistry, good leadership and no injuries. That happens and we will be fine and with that I think that the sky is the limit.


Not nec. Sabonis would not have blown up as much, so that may be a push. But agree anything beyond S16 is roll of the dice.

Zagdawg
08-27-2016, 10:04 AM
Management of expectations: Unmet expectations often leads to frustration. Realistic expectations are the key.

We have 2 starters coming back --with one of them having sat out last year due to injury and still in the midst of rehab.
We have 3 red shirt transfers that have spent time with the team but have not been on the floor with the Zags for a college basketball game (two of the transfers have been injured/required rehab).
We have 1 new grad transfer that has not played in our system--but we have seen success in the past with some solid transfers.
We have 5 incoming freshman that could all have an impact in the college game.
We have 3 incoming recruits from outside of the United States where English is not their primary language.

Karnowski will be hungry --he had to watch his team work hard to get to the sweet 16 last year from the bench and he will be ready to anchor our defense in the key.
The three transfers are also going to be hungry to prove they are here for the long haul --they have been working hard in practices as part of the opposing team against our starting team last year and are ready to step up.
A huge positive --we should have all of our walk ons back including Rem for his senior season.

Huge amount of talent-- some challenges related to depth (good challenge), some challenges related to international players and language (I am happy Rui came over early), some solid experience and talented freshman to push our veterans ----we have the potential to have a great year---but we can also have a few stinkers early as we go through our growing pains.

Looking forward to another solid year.

Go Zags

thegloriousgoateeofKP
08-27-2016, 12:30 PM
My expectations are always the same.....compete for the WCC Championship.....get to the WCC Championship game.....hopefully get into the NCAA....then it is a krap shoot....

+1.

The Zags will be one of a handful of elite teams. But in a one-and-done tournament, the best teams don't always win.

Let's put together a strong non-conference season, win the WCC regular season title, hope and pray we're healthy all year, hope and pray we get a good draw in the NCAAs, and then *shrug* let the chips fall where they may.

And let's have fun watching our favorite team with our family, friends, and GU Boards family.

gonzagafan62
08-27-2016, 02:37 PM
Especially the last sentence thegloriousgoateeofKP

ZagsGoZags
08-27-2016, 04:12 PM
This is an excellent one sentence summary of last year DixieZag, best so far IMO

"Perhaps last year's cautionary tale about ups/downs (one shot from E-8, one game from not making tourney)"

also
all the talk about the NCAA tournament being a crap shoot esp. after the Sweet Sixteen.
this is transparent rationalizing if I have ever heard it.
Can you imagine what the opinion leaders on this board would be saying about that
if in the last 15 years we had two national championships, and four final fours?
Would we not be arguing then that for any single game, any team can win, but when North Carolina, Duke, Kentucky, Zags, [assuming we have their records in the last 15 years], Kansas etc push to and beyond the Final Four, statistics show it is not a crap shoot.
IF we had two championships and four Final Fours since 2001, and IF St. Mary's, SF, huskies, etc. disparaged our successful record because going deep " is a crap shoot", I can hear us giving VERY GOOD REASONS why 'crap shoot' is not the best overall description of advancing deep in the Dance often within a decade. Over many seasons, the elite teams consistently reveal there is more to a team like Duke than getting lucky over and over again.

Reborn
08-27-2016, 04:43 PM
I'm not sure why the MBBF has been so quiet this summer. I'm sure for many different reasons. For me last year was a drain. It drained me emotionally, in a positive way. I loved that team. Maybe the most ever since the 1999-2000 team. Watching PK go down was a big hurt. BIG!!! And it took a LONG time for the team, and the fans, to recover. We watched our Zags lose a lot of games, and for us, way too many at home. We got beat twice by St Mary's, and yes at home too. We lost a lot of games in the Kennel, and that just doesn't happen. After that last loss at home to St Mary's things looked really bad for The Zags. I'm sure we all began to ask ourselves if this was going to be THE TEAM that would be the first team to NOT MAKE IT TO THE BIG DANCE.

There was the HBO series on our Zags, which was awesome, but also painful to watch, especially after the St Mary's loss. We got a rare look into the Zags locker room and had a front row seat to witness their pain. It was really hard for me. I'll admit that. The team lacked leadership after PK went down, but a leader was born after that loss. And McClellan rose high. He became a star and led the team to huge victories, one right after the other. We watched the Zags slowly rise from the ashes of that St Mary's loss, and one game after another they suddenly found that THING inside of them that makes Gonzaga so special. The victories over BYU (two of them) and than St Mary's suddenly changed everything. Everyone was surgging high as the Zags went into the NCAA Tournament.

The pundents doubting us once again. We were soft, too soft for a Big East team who were the darlings of the NCAA Tournament because they had upset Villanova in the Big East Tournament Final. And Seton Hall was tough. The were Big East Big and tough. But we put them to rest. Similarly, everyone accept us Zag fans expected us to lose to Utah, the second best team in the Pac 12. They were a 3 seed and we were an 11. Our guys showed the world once more why Gonzaga is so special. Who will ever forget how awesome Sabonis played. Not only in the Utah game but in every single game. And than we had that nail biter against Syracuse, a game we certainly could have won. It was a beautiful march through a hell-of-a season. I hated to see the season end.

And I hated to see our guys leave, one by one: Wiltjer (one of the best shooters and scorers Gonzaga has ever had), Dranginis (who played the role of Mike Hart to perfection, and was even a better shooter), and MeClellan who was corner stone to this team. And then a month or two latter our hearts were broken when we heard Sabonis was off to the NBA early. It's called grieving. This, for me, has been a huge loss. I will miss these guys the way I missed Morrison, Pangos and Bell and Steven Gray and Pangos. We have never had so many great guys leave at the same time. I know that this was a special team for Mark Few and all the coaches. They remind me of one of my favorite mottos in sports, "when the going gets tough, the tough get going." I feel what Mark Few feels in his heart. Maybe that's why I've been so quiet this summer. It will take time for me to let the stars into my heart. But as history has proven, I will. And in time, my heart will open up to the new guys, and maybe in a way, it will be satisfied and so full of joy like I have never felt before. Maybe the next version of the Zags will be the team that leads us to the Promise Land. The talent is there, but not the team. Not yet. It will take us awhile to see and welcome new stars, and hopefully their light will shine like none before them.

Each day the season gets closer, and each day I find myself thinking more and more about the 2016-17 team. I'm finally begin to wonder what it will be like to see all those transfers in Zag uniforms. I think there are four. That's a lot. And like always I am excited to see the incoming freshmen play. There are a couple who could become pretty big stars. And I am so very excited to see Perkins play. He became the kind of point guard last year that we all had been waiting for when He first announced he was going to be a Zag. I don't think I've ever so excited during the recruiting season as I was when Josh announced he was coming to Gonzaga. And he was as much responsible for that beautiful run last year that we will all remember forever. He WAS the point guard to take us back once more to the Sweet 16. And I BELIEVE that he's going to lead us even further next season.

maynard g krebs
08-27-2016, 08:18 PM
This is an excellent one sentence summary of last year DixieZag, best so far IMO

"Perhaps last year's cautionary tale about ups/downs (one shot from E-8, one game from not making tourney)"

also
all the talk about the NCAA tournament being a crap shoot esp. after the Sweet Sixteen.
this is transparent rationalizing if I have ever heard it.
Can you imagine what the opinion leaders on this board would be saying about that
if in the last 15 years we had two national championships, and four final fours?
Would we not be arguing then that for any single game, any team can win, but when North Carolina, Duke, Kentucky, Zags, [assuming we have their records in the last 15 years], Kansas etc push to and beyond the Final Four, statistics show it is not a crap shoot.
IF we had two championships and four Final Fours since 2001, and IF St. Mary's, SF, huskies, etc. disparaged our successful record because going deep " is a crap shoot", I can hear us giving VERY GOOD REASONS why 'crap shoot' is not the best overall description of advancing deep in the Dance often within a decade. Over many seasons, the elite teams consistently reveal there is more to a team like Duke than getting lucky over and over again.

The meaning of the term crap shoot refers to what can happen in any given year. It does not refer to cumulative records over a long period of time. In a given year, Duke loses to Lehigh or Mercer in a first round 2-15 game. In another given year, they win the national championship. It's a one and done scenario each year, and anything can happen in one game. In one game, Jeremiah Dominguez can get red hot and Portland State beats the Zags in the Kennel. Sometimes that kind of game just happens to take place in the tourney, and a 2 loses to a 15.

The fact that over the long haul things average out and the blue bloods have more deep runs and more titles has nothing to do with the concept of the tourney being called a crapshoot. Play craps long enough, and the house (or the best teams in this case) usually ultimately win, because the odds are in their favor. But on a given night, a hot shooter can beat the odds, and upsets happen to top teams every year in the tourney. That's why it's called a crapshoot, by definition. Has nothing to do with rationalizing by losers.

kitzbuel
08-28-2016, 03:54 AM
The meaning of the term crap shoot refers to what can happen in any given year. It does not refer to cumulative records over a long period of time. In a given year, Duke loses to Lehigh or Mercer in a first round 2-15 game. In another given year, they win the national championship. It's a one and done scenario each year, and anything can happen in one game. In one game, Jeremiah Dominguez can get red hot and Portland State beats the Zags in the Kennel. Sometimes that kind of game just happens to take place in the tourney, and a 2 loses to a 15.

The fact that over the long haul things average out and the blue bloods have more deep runs and more titles has nothing to do with the concept of the tourney being called a crapshoot. Play craps long enough, and the house (or the best teams in this case) usually ultimately win, because the odds are in their favor. But on a given night, a hot shooter can beat the odds, and upsets happen to top teams every year in the tourney. That's why it's called a crapshoot, by definition. Has nothing to do with rationalizing by losers.
There is a probability that any team can win or lose any game. However, teams can do things to increase their probability of winning. It that sense, it is not exactly like a crapshoot, unless you include loading the dice.

The top teams have done things to increase their likelihood of winning tournament games. With an increased probability, they predictably win more. GU and Mark Few in particular have continually made decisions, programmatically and in-game, that increase GU's probability of winning NCAA games. It appears to be paying off. We are now routinely hitting the Sweet 16 and on the verge of routine Elite 8. That is a change from the routine Round of 32 of a few years ago.

Slowly but surely, Few is doing things that load the dice for GU in the NCAA craps game.

bartruff1
08-28-2016, 05:15 AM
To date no 1 seed has lost to a 16,........ but in the first round there were 10 wins by teams seeded 10th or worse in 2016...

In the past, there have been 8 upsets of 2 seeds by 15 seeds

21 upsets..... 3 seeds by 14 seeds

26 upsets..... 4 seeds by by 13 seeds

46 upsets......5 seeds by 12seeds

I suspect the fans of those lower seeds (1-5) had a reasonable expectation that their teams would reach the FF....call it what you want...

TravelinZag
08-28-2016, 06:51 AM
The talent is there, but not the team. Not yet.

This is the best synopsis of expectations, just as Dixie encapsulized last season.

Your comments never fail to make me think . . . And feel. Thanks!

cjm720
08-28-2016, 07:14 AM
Great post, Reborn!

DixieZag
08-28-2016, 07:53 AM
Yeah, as some said above, "crapshoot" is getting a bit tired. If it were a crap shoot then why is it that is been 83 years since we lost a first round game? Maybe we'll start getting some consistency in that second round game (like the first 3 years of the 'run'). Increased talent obviously the first step, but I think there's a little bit more there.

"Playing tight" and "taking the air out of the ball" and whatever other cliché one wants, there's a hump there that doesn't seem any more random that almost always winning the first round game. I do have faith that the door will be knocked down soon enough.

bartruff1
08-28-2016, 11:56 AM
Conflation

75Zag
08-29-2016, 01:41 PM
Another exciting year. Hopefully Karno will have gained a half-step and the returning and new players will carry GU to even greater things.

Go Bulldogs!

MDABE80
08-29-2016, 08:32 PM
Luck should be the correct term. I do agree with Jazz though. If Karno had played last year, I think Domas would still be with us. He just blew up because he had to. And whatta player by year's end.

Reborn
08-29-2016, 08:52 PM
Luck should be thr correct erm. I do agree with Jazz though. If Karno had played last year, I think Domas would still be with us. He just blew up because he had to. And whatta player by year's end.

Totally agree. And PK could not be who he will be this year if Saboinis came back.

MDABE80
08-29-2016, 09:22 PM
Moot point. We'll see.

TexasZagFan
08-30-2016, 05:33 AM
Not nec. Sabonis would not have blown up as much, so that may be a push. But agree anything beyond S16 is roll of the dice.

If Karno had not gotten hurt, Wiltjer would have been unstoppable, as our front line would dominate most everyone. Karno's worth at least 5-6 points on defense every game, he clogs up the middle so much. His passing is incredible for a big man.

Damn, we might still have had Sabonis for one more year...wistfully daydreaming...

TheGonzagaFactor
08-30-2016, 09:19 AM
After last seasons pre-season hype it's interesting to see the pendelum swing so far the other way this year. This has to be the most subdued summer banter I have seen since hopping onto
these boards with a 56k modem. Last year it was about the final four and the biggest and best front court in the country. Even Few uttered the word "final four".

This year we're probably better overall but we seem reluctant to eat crow again and all we can muster is a sly tight lipped smile.

I would say the hype is similar but has taken on a different dynamic. Last year was all about how good the team would be. This year the hype seems to be directed more at the new players. They are surely deserving.

I've seen a lot more "we have multiple All Americans" posts this year, last year the discussion was centered more around how we would manage our easy, undefeated season.

Of course both the team and individual players were hyped in both offseasons, I've just seen a noticeable trend towards hyping individual players, and for good reason. Last year we knew what our stars could do. This time around, we haven't seen any of these guys play together, so the sky is the limit in terms of how each individual's talent will fit into the team.