PDA

View Full Version : POV: Gonzaga's Recruiting Benefits Long-Term if Sabonis Declares



zagdontzig
03-28-2016, 09:38 PM
There is a case to be made that the more GU places draft picks, the better our recruiting prospects are. Some anecdotal evidence:

Central to Tommy Lloyd's pitch to Domantas was GU's ability to develop big men such as Kelly Olynyk. Remember his success redshirting behind a Sacre/Karno/Harris line-up. The argument for Domantas to stay is that he can improve his upside. But he can also (and I know this is blasphemy coming off his performance against Poeltl) fall back into mediocrity. Nightmare-in-point: Harris was considered a strong draft prospect, and GU Boards memes aside, the hype around Harris was similar to that of Sabonis. Harris elected to stay. He continued to produce at a high level, even though he may have been a defensive liability at times, but ultimately, he found himself overshadowed by newer draft prospects. Kyle Wiltjer is in a similar boat this year, although he still probably is more signable undrafted than Harris was.

Long story short, the argument is that as a low first-round/high second-round pick, there is some upside but there is more downside for Sabonis' career staying another year. While he will almost assuredly help our team next year, Tommy et. al. may not be able to use him as an Olynykeque success-story, which ironically played a large part in getting Sabonis to commit.

For himself, and for Gonzaga, he should declare.

gonzagafan62
03-28-2016, 09:50 PM
Harris' draft stock early from what I remember was based on dunks and highlight reels. If he declared that wouldn't have looked good at all. He wasn't ready for NBA at all. BTW he had his chances afterward too. No shame in anything he thought was best for himself

Sabonis won't fall back into mediocrity at all. He's the most persistent, driven, and hungry player ever at GU. There's no chance in the world he slips....no matter what the decision I hope he does what will make him the most happy

WallaWallaZag
03-28-2016, 09:50 PM
...if sabonis has indeed worked himself into a lottery pick, it's probably best that he goes this year from a personal standpoint (this draft is relatively weak compared to next year). from a zag recruiting standpoint it's not so clear...if sabonis coming back is the difference between another sweet 16 or gu's first ever final four appearance, him coming back would be much more important than being a lotto pick this year, even if his draft stock dips a little in the process.

jazzdelmar
03-29-2016, 04:21 AM
Nonsense....if he goes now he's prob a top 12-15.....next year he would be top 5......and a Wooden finalist and god knows what other awards and accomplishment.......vs sitting on the end of a sub 500 NBA bench.......worse, he ends up a Wesley Johnson, years in the league, top pick. hunting for teams and minutes.....makes no sense to go, save for bucks and we (think) we know he does not need them now.....really simple....

Outraged
03-29-2016, 05:39 AM
It's all about the legacy he wants to create. It's his story. I do not know what would be better for his personal brand. He may become a household name if he stays. He may do well in his first year of NBA. It all comes down to when he looks back 30 years from now at his career as a whole what had the biggest impact and what he is most proud of.

bigblahla
03-29-2016, 07:38 AM
Nonsense....if he goes now he's prob a top 12-15.....next year he would be top 5......and a Wooden finalist and god knows what other awards and accomplishment.......vs sitting on the end of a sub 500 NBA bench.......worse, he ends up a Wesley Johnson, years in the league, top pick. hunting for teams and minutes.....makes no sense to go, save for bucks and we (think) we know he does not need them now.....really simple....

100% agree...if he goes it's because he and his family think he is ready...doubt his dad thinks he is...I'm sure papa knows every nuance of his son's game that still needs work...Domas still has room to improve, knows it and has said so....no degree as promised as of yet....he stays...for many reasons but the biggest is his love for Gonzaga, teammates, fans and most of all love of the game...he stays making a history of his own...his legacy....

Just my opinion...

Go!! Zags!!!

zagdontzig
03-29-2016, 07:59 AM
Nonsense....if he goes now he's prob a top 12-15.....next year he would be top 5......and a Wooden finalist and god knows what other awards and accomplishment.......vs sitting on the end of a sub 500 NBA bench.......worse, he ends up a Wesley Johnson, years in the league, top pick. hunting for teams and minutes.....makes no sense to go, save for bucks and we (think) we know he does not need them now.....really simple....

There is no such thing as a simple decision to declare. You're taking for granted that he'll be a top 5 next year. That's a very rosy outlook. Yes, he had a fantastic year this year, and there is no doubt in my mind that he will continue to produce for us, but that doesn't presuppose his draft stock goes up, especially with the draft class expected next year.

raise the zag
03-29-2016, 08:09 AM
I'm not sure many realize Elias Harris height w/o shoes was 6'6". He was barely 6'7" (on a good day).

He was listed at 6'8", but everyone on the team joked about his 2" pumps, etc.

Domas is a legit 6'10", closer to 6'11".

Was all the more impressive Elias was one of the all-time rebounders and high-flying dunkers while at GU.

Elias made the NBA for a short stint as a Laker, yet was finally listed at his real height (in shoes) at 6'7".

He's doing well playing professionally in Germany.

Reborn
03-29-2016, 10:54 AM
I'm with those who think he will stay, for the same reasons they stated.

Go Zags!!!

zagzilla
03-29-2016, 11:24 AM
Harris is not a good comparison, IMO. Everybody knew that Harris was too small to play the 4 in the Association and could not guard the 3 spot. Classic tweener. Also he was very old for his class. I believe he was 23+ yrs old when he graduated which counts against you.

Sabonis is barely 20 and at the end of next year would be 21 which is good for NBA because they still think you have upside.

Sabonis as a Top 5 pick next year? That is impossible to say. New super frosh oner and doners as well as breakout players in marquee programs make that a crapshoot. If he is really a lottery pick now, he should go. GU does benefit from having a consistent history of developing high NBA draft choices. Olynyk is 3 years ago now and memories fade quickly.

ZZ

Colbyspapa
03-29-2016, 11:28 AM
I'd love for him to stay. I don't think he will.

1. How much better will Sabonis get in college? Yes you can always work on some part of your game, but he is the best player on the court every game now as a 20 year old sophomore. He's physically ready and his skills are only going to get better playing against better athletes.

2. He could hurt his stock next season. He played a lot of minutes this year and has stats that coincide with his many minutes. Next year, if Karno returns and we add Zach, he will play less minutes. He is not a stretch 4 as much as I would like him to be one. He made 5 3 pointers. It is not his game. Karno plays 10 feet from the rim and in. Sabonis plays 15 feet and in. What happens to his draft status if he has less than 18 points and 12 rebounds next season because he plays less minutes or plays out of position?

3. The goal is the NBA right? He didn't sign a pro contract in Europe as a teenager to play NCAA basketball and get an education with the idea that he would play in the NBA as his career. He is a superstar and gets to start his career earlier than most for more money than if he stays and risks injury, player rotations, or other distraction.

It is clear Domas loves GU and wants a degree. He can get the degree any time. He will always be a Zag. He probably wouldn't make it to Senior night two years from now anyway. He's too good. BTW, Domas is an Allstar in the NBA some day. For us he's an Allstar every day. God Bless him and good luck!

gonzagafan62
03-29-2016, 11:31 AM
Less minutes ?

The only reason he'd be getting less minutes is because we'd be crushing teams. Not because he's sucking. I'd say his pts go up, as well as his rebounds. His 3pt % skyrockets and so does his 3pt FG attempts. I don't see his stock falling at all regardless of what class it is

GonzagasaurusFlex
03-29-2016, 12:39 PM
Less minutes ?

The only reason he'd be getting less minutes is because we'd be crushing teams. Not because he's sucking. I'd say his pts go up, as well as his rebounds. His 3pt % skyrockets and so does his 3pt FG attempts. I don't see his stock falling at all regardless of what class it is

IF both Sabonis and PK return and PK is healthy, and assuming JWIII is not going to play small forward (which I do not think suits him on either end of the court)..then it is pretty much a given that Sabonis will play fewer minutes next season.

All four bigs, Karnowski / Sabonis / Williams / Collins, would deserve significant playing time...which means nobody plays 30+ mpg.

spike_jr
03-29-2016, 01:03 PM
For the record, DS is still only 19 and will not turn 20 until May 3. Right now, he is probably younger than some of the "one and done" crowd.

I would love for him to stay, but that decision is ultimately his. Will he get markedly better in college? Does he look at PK this year and fear potential injury? Does he want/need the money? If the money isn't important, the NBA will still be there next year. I doubt it is an easy decision. I'm sure we all want nothing but the best for the kid.

Coach Crazy
03-29-2016, 03:27 PM
Nonsense....if he goes now he's prob a top 12-15.....next year he would be top 5......and a Wooden finalist and god knows what other awards and accomplishment.......vs sitting on the end of a sub 500 NBA bench.......worse, he ends up a Wesley Johnson, years in the league, top pick. hunting for teams and minutes.....makes no sense to go, save for bucks and we (think) we know he does not need them now.....really simple....

If he comes back, he's likely not going to be a Top 5 pick unless he shoots much more from 3 and the mid-range. The downside to that is that he misses a lot and eliminates a significant amount of immediate dimension to his game. More risk than reward. And if he gets drafted this year, he won't be sitting on the end of the bench. He'll be the starting 4 or first off the bench forward. And he'll have an opportunity to further develop his shot in practice at the pro level.

cjm720
03-29-2016, 05:09 PM
I get the premise of the OP but I'd take two more years over the number 1 pick. Same with KO a few years back.

MDABE80
03-29-2016, 07:38 PM
I don't remember anyone who stayed another year who didn't get tons better...........seems to be a consistent theme. I do think Few would celebrate a kid of his stature. Idoubt he'd lose minutes.
Seems like most of this thought of him leaving is based on money. Might be. Money isn't everything though. For him to stay with GU for another year makes plenty of sense from the Euro outlook. His Dad seems conservative along those lines. That may be the overriding thought from his family if they want a degree and improvement and growth as a player and person.
I suppose he'll go to the tryouts for evaluation(s). I wouldn't hire an agent quite yet. I don't think he will.............sorta cuts his options out if he does.

About a month ago ZN detailed the Olympic schedules. That might matter two since he can'tbe in two places at once.......Either way he choses, he'll be benefitted. His choice. But we'd love to keep him. I would.

cbbfanatic
03-29-2016, 09:03 PM
but that doesn't presuppose his draft stock goes up, especially with the draft class expected next year.

this is a huge key here that is either overlooked or willfully ignored by many. his perceived improvement from now to then is half the equation, at best. the names in the draft now and 12 months from now are hugely important, especially when you're talking first half of the first round.

its almost as if some think that the greater # of people on this board saying he will or should come back, the better likelihood that he does... and the whole idea that people on here think he should come back, and that he isnt ready, and that he can only improve at gonzaga is preposterous, and a really bad look. fact of the matter is that there is a very reasonable path to short and long term success for him either way. personally, if i'm him, i go. but if he stays, he'll likely be just fine in the end

i also find it comical all the people who know exactly what is going on in this kids head... another bad look. even with the sources... maybe he says what he has to say to get out of talking more about it? maybe he says what he says to tell people what they want to hear? maybe he hasnt thought about it yet and throws out a default response? maybe the sources are employing the same tactics, or just making a lot of inferences. maybe, just maybe, he can still love gonzaga and decide to pursue his inevitable career in the professional ranks 2 years into college.

if he goes, he goes. best of luck to him, he's a great player with huge upside. gonzaga was lucky to have him

MDABE80
03-29-2016, 09:34 PM
About the draft class expected next year??? Is it THAT great? Does anyone think Domas couldn't compete as well next year??

zagdontzig
03-30-2016, 08:24 AM
its almost as if some think that the greater # of people on this board saying he will or should come back, the better likelihood that he does... and the whole idea that people on here think he should come back, and that he isnt ready, and that he can only improve at gonzaga is preposterous, and a really bad look. fact of the matter is that there is a very reasonable path to short and long term success for him either way. personally, if i'm him, i go. but if he stays, he'll likely be just fine in the end

The board has a self-perpetuating dialogue that nobody close to the players (except for maybe Dranginis' Mom) keeps up with. The board tells itself otherwise because human nature commands a need to feel relevant. I hate to break it to everyone, but we're all a bunch of fanboys, some fanmen, and nobody else cares about our emotional outletting following every game.


i also find it comical all the people who know exactly what is going on in this kids head... another bad look. even with the sources... maybe he says what he has to say to get out of talking more about it? maybe he says what he says to tell people what they want to hear? maybe he hasnt thought about it yet and throws out a default response? maybe the sources are employing the same tactics, or just making a lot of inferences. maybe, just maybe, he can still love gonzaga and decide to pursue his inevitable career in the professional ranks 2 years into college.

I also think it's a lose-lose question. If he says "I don't know" or doesn't answer, rumors fly around conference tournament time when there's already the distraction of HBO cameras. His only answer is to quietly say he's coming back.

zagdontzig
03-30-2016, 08:27 AM
About the draft class expected next year??? Is it THAT great? Does anyone think Domas couldn't compete as well next year??

It's better than this years, and that enough for him to default from the late first round to late second round, or out altogether, assuming he plays the same

cjm720
03-30-2016, 08:45 AM
It's better than this years, and that enough for him to default from the late first round to late second round, or out altogether, assuming he plays the same

Nonsense. Double double dominator is a first round lock assuming no injuries.

zagdontzig
03-30-2016, 08:49 AM
Nonsense. Double double dominator is a first round lock assuming no injuries.

Oh my hell he's not even a first round lock this year.

gonzagafan62
03-30-2016, 08:50 AM
Oh my hell he's not even a first round lock this year.

I bet ya he is. This draft class is weak. No way he wouldn't go in the top 30. Lol

vandalzag
03-30-2016, 09:37 AM
Oh my hell he's not even a first round lock this year.

And what are you basing this on? Besides every mock board out there projecting him as a first round pick.

zagdontzig
03-30-2016, 10:09 AM
And what are you basing this on? Besides every mock board out there projecting him as a first round pick.

Most are projecting him around 20. Anything outside the top 10, and the margin of error is much more than 10 spots. Not saying he's not likely a first rounder because he is, but "lock" is a very strong word for someone who could get passed over based on a whole host of variables between now and whatever happens in the combine.

gonstu
03-30-2016, 12:29 PM
Updated today, no idea how legit the site is but WOW.

http://www.nbadraft.net/2016mock_draft

gonzagafan62
03-30-2016, 12:46 PM
Updated today, no idea how legit the site is but WOW.

http://www.nbadraft.net/2016mock_draft

#5 now that's incredible.

Zagceo
03-30-2016, 12:48 PM
Domantas Sabonis (http://www.nbadraft.net/players/domantas-sabonis) 6-11 240 PF/C Gonzaga So. -- Despite the heart breaking loss to Syracuse, Sabonis had another tremendous performance, registering his third straight double double of the tournament.
Sabonis went for 19 points and 17 boards on 8-12 shooting. The standout sophomore was not only Gonzaga's best player, but showed tremendous leadership. He carried this team from an emotional standpoint and really shows a lot of exuberance and passion for the game.

Despite not being the most explosive or athletic bigman, his skill level in the post is extremely impressive. He's got great fundamentals to position himself for rebounds and will be a force on the boards at the next level. His ability to impact the game at both ends also gives him a lot of intrigue.

It's not a done deal that he enters this year's draft. But if he does, he figures to be a top 10 pick, and we currently have him rated 5th overall.

nbadraft.net (http://www.nbadraft.net/nba_mock_drafts/consensus) has consensus draft with DS going #10 to denver

Vanzagger
03-30-2016, 02:39 PM
Updated today, no idea how legit the site is but WOW.

http://www.nbadraft.net/2016mock_draft

Mr Vulture might lose his mind when he sees this.

zagdontzig
03-30-2016, 03:15 PM
Andy Katz and the case for players to stay:

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:15097075

zagdontzig
04-04-2016, 10:10 PM
I'm resurrecting this thread to caveat my view that Sabonis leaving is better for him and Gonzaga. The only way I think he would be more successful against next year's draft class is if he used next year to become a lights-out three-point shooter, and better-develop his face-up game.

WallaWallaZag
04-05-2016, 10:06 AM
I'm resurrecting this thread to caveat my view that Sabonis leaving is better for him and Gonzaga. The only way I think he would be more successful against next year's draft class is if he used next year to become a lights-out three-point shooter, and better-develop his face-up game.

if he shoots well from distance at combine and/or individual workouts it probably won't matter all that much...agree that if he's lottery this year probably best for him to go.