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MontanaCoyote
02-28-2016, 08:13 PM
After Chris Rock I needed something to do, so I rang up total wins and losses of the AP top '25, D1.

510 wins, 165 losses. That's virtually an average of 67/33. All but one team, Xavier, has 4 or more losses.

Do you veteran posters think this portends lots of upsets at The Dance? ........On a given night,
assuming the Zags make it in, they could surprise?

Vanzagger
02-28-2016, 08:18 PM
With those numbers I don't think anyone gets an at large bid. You will have to win your tourney to go Dancin. CBS will pay the big bucks and broadcast the whole NIT this year.

Zaga
02-29-2016, 06:09 AM
Keep the string alive Zag's. Win the tourney...............please

jazzdelmar
02-29-2016, 06:11 AM
In most cases, such as Dook, they are losing to each other, Big 5 schools.

vandalzag
02-29-2016, 06:36 AM
In most cases, such as Dook, they are losing to each other, Big 5 schools.

Agreed. I think Howland was on record when he was at UCLA talking about how to schedule and game the system toward RPI etc.. Basically never playing any mid-tier or better Mid-Majors on the road and crap like that. System has and will always favor the power conferences.

gonzagafan62
02-29-2016, 06:57 AM
Agreed. I think Howland was on record when he was at UCLA talking about how to schedule and game the system toward RPI etc.. Basically never playing any mid-tier or better Mid-Majors on the road and crap like that. System has and will always favor the power conferences.

Yeah the idea is to play those mid tier mid majors AT HOME, get the win, and RPI #'s rise.

Pac12 is filled with these gamers. Over inflated #'s and it's not as great of a conference as everyone makes it out to be

seacatfan
02-29-2016, 08:50 AM
There are no great teams in the Pac 12 (but you could easily argue there are no great teams in ANY conference this year), but it is packed with solid teams. 1-10 are really competitive. I'd say everyone in the Pac 12 other than Wazzu and Arizona St. (and the Sun Devils beat Texas A&M this year, FWIW) are at least at the level of Pepperdine or the top 3 teams in the WCC. Even Wazzu is way better than the dregs of the WCC, which is 1/3 to 1/2 the conference, and the Cougs have only ONE WIN in conference.

mgadfly
02-29-2016, 09:00 AM
I think WSU is a bit better than San Francisco. Other than their inexplicable loss to Idaho and being clobbered by Utah, they've been okay but losing to pretty good teams.

I think the any of the rest of the Pac-12 teams would be at least fourth place in the WCC (better than Pepperdine). And I think GU and SMC would be fourth or fifth in the Pac-12 this year and would be competitive with even the top level of the P12.

This is a down year for the WCC, but if GU plays SMC for the conference tourney championship, it'd still be a shame if Stanford, UW, or Oregon State got in over the loser of that game.

gonzagafan62
02-29-2016, 09:13 AM
There are no great teams in the Pac 12 (but you could easily argue there are no great teams in ANY conference this year), but it is packed with solid teams. 1-10 are really competitive. I'd say everyone in the Pac 12 other than Wazzu and Arizona St. (and the Sun Devils beat Texas A&M this year, FWIW) are at least at the level of Pepperdine or the top 3 teams in the WCC. Even Wazzu is way better than the dregs of the WCC, which is 1/3 to 1/2 the conference, and the Cougs have only ONE WIN in conference.

I wasn't saying the PAC12 wasn't light years ahead of WCC this year, and most teams would be Top 2 in this conference, I'm just saying I don't think they're the best or even second best conference maybe not third.

vandalzag
02-29-2016, 09:21 AM
I think WSU is a bit better than San Francisco. Other than their inexplicable loss to Idaho and being clobbered by Utah, they've been okay but losing to pretty good teams.

I think the any of the rest of the Pac-12 teams would be at least fourth place in the WCC (better than Pepperdine). And I think GU and SMC would be fourth or fifth in the Pac-12 this year and would be competitive with even the top level of the P12.

This is a down year for the WCC, but if GU plays SMC for the conference tourney championship, it'd still be a shame if Stanford, UW, or Oregon State got in over the loser of that game.

Maybe tied with USF since I think they would split. WSU is really bad, pretty much identical to the the bottom teams of the WCC.

mgadfly
02-29-2016, 09:30 AM
Maybe tied with USF since I think they would split. WSU is really bad, pretty much identical to the the bottom teams of the WCC.

I'll agree to a split with WSU, that's probably right.

WSU, against teams ranked worse than 120th by kenpom, was 8-1 during non-conference play. USF, the 5th place WCC team, was 6-3 against the same level of competition during non-conference play. I think both teams are a small step ahead of the bottom teams in the WCC (especially USD).

seacatfan
02-29-2016, 01:02 PM
I wasn't saying the PAC12 wasn't light years ahead of WCC this year, and most teams would be Top 2 in this conference, I'm just saying I don't think they're the best or even second best conference maybe not third.

I think the talking heads have completely backed off from calling the Pac 12 the best or even 2nd best conference quite a while ago. So who are the top conferences? Big 12, ACC, Big 10? In that order or rearrange it a bit? I would certainly put the Pac 12 ahead of the SEC. Maybe the Big East is better than the SEC this year too. Hard to say definitively.

Sorta changing the subject a bit, but who do you think are the best handful of teams this year? That's tough too. Teams that looked great early like Oklahoma and Iowa have nose dived down the stretch. Maybe Kansas and Michigan St. and...? How good are Villanova and Xavier? I don't really buy Virginia. Definitely don't buy North Carolina. Or Maryland. I'm finding it nearly impossible to determine who the legit top 5 teams are, or anyone that seems like an odds on favorite to reach the Final 4.

gonzagafan62
02-29-2016, 02:10 PM
I think the talking heads have completely backed off from calling the Pac 12 the best or even 2nd best conference quite a while ago. So who are the top conferences? Big 12, ACC, Big 10? In that order or rearrange it a bit? I would certainly put the Pac 12 ahead of the SEC. Maybe the Big East is better than the SEC this year too. Hard to say definitively.

Sorta changing the subject a bit, but who do you think are the best handful of teams this year? That's tough too. Teams that looked great early like Oklahoma and Iowa have nose dived down the stretch. Maybe Kansas and Michigan St. and...? How good are Villanova and Xavier? I don't really buy Virginia. Definitely don't buy North Carolina. Or Maryland. I'm finding it nearly impossible to determine who the legit top 5 teams are, or anyone that seems like an odds on favorite to reach the Final 4.

I think you nailed it on conferences. Big 12, ACC Big Ten Pac12 Big East, SEC

As far as Michigan State they are head and shoulders above everyone in my mind and you might a well send them to Houston. I don't see anyone beating them in March. Nobody is as good as them.

As for other teams? Maybe Kansas? Maybe Kentucky you can make an argument for. I don't like teams like Iowa, Oklahoma, Villanova.

I like but am skeptical about Oklahoma, Xavier and North Carolina.

Those are the teams I think have the best shot but I'm sold on Sparty

seacatfan
02-29-2016, 03:05 PM
I like Sparty too. They had a little hiccup in the middle of the season, but seemed to have recovered. But I really liked them 2 years ago, and they didn't get that far in the Tourney, and then last year they seemed to come from nowhere. Izzo is always a threat to get to the Final 4, but he's had a few teams that underachieved. We'll see.

zagfan24
03-01-2016, 12:54 AM
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-best-mens-college-basketball-teams-just-arent-very-good-this-year/

Reborn
03-01-2016, 09:54 AM
I would not put a bet on any team to win the tournament this year. I think it's that open. I don't think Duke has the post players this year. Look who they had last year. I like Virginia out of the ACC. They play tough D and they have a very good All-American. Kansas out of the Big 12. They have put it together, on most nights. Their victory over Texas last night was pretty impressive. Michigan State out of the Big 10 for sure. Izzo is the best, and they have a great All-American leading them. I like Oregon out of the Pac 12 to make the biggest splash. I'll take Villanova out of the Big East. I also like Xavier to be a real threat. I believe the SEC is real down this year. Kentucky is also down and won't make it past the Sweet 16 if they get that far.

This may surprise you, but I think Gonzaga can be a huge surprise. The key is Wiltjer. I thought the team looked pretty good against SMU. The only problem we had that night was Wilt. I think the Zags are gaining in confidence and play real good D most of the time. SMU is a pretty tough team and they Zags held their own. Sabonis was a Beast against three of the toughest post players in America, imo. Sabonis is going to be very, very hard to stop because the teams we will play in the Tournament really don't know how good he is. SMU found out. Perkins has come a long ways in the last few weeks and I think he's ready to lead this team. Keys will be our outside shooting.

Witchita St will be tough as well. And if St Mary's gets in I think they can make a small splash. I believe they are better than many teams believe. I'm glad to see them in the top 25. And if GU can beat them in the WCC Tournament than it'll show to me that we have two teams who can survive in the NCAA Tournament.

Go Zags!!!

maynard g krebs
03-01-2016, 01:37 PM
I think the talking heads have completely backed off from calling the Pac 12 the best or even 2nd best conference quite a while ago. So who are the top conferences? Big 12, ACC, Big 10? In that order or rearrange it a bit? I would certainly put the Pac 12 ahead of the SEC.

Here's why the pac is better than the big 10.

Kenpom:
84 Northwestern
98 Neb
133 Penn St
137 Illinois
169 Minnesota
306 Rutgers

That's 6 teams below the Pac's number 10 team Stanford, and 5 below its number 11 ASU. And 4 that are well down in the mid/low major level, where the Pac has one. The big 10 is a bit stronger at the top, but as seen in the above, they get a lot more nights off than teams in the Pac, which is deeper than it's ever been.

seacatfan
03-01-2016, 03:34 PM
Here's why the pac is better than the big 10.

Kenpom:
84 Northwestern
98 Neb
133 Penn St
137 Illinois
169 Minnesota
306 Northwestern

That's 6 teams below the Pac's number 10 team Stanford, and 5 below its number 11 ASU. And 4 that are well down in the mid/low major level, where the Pac has one. The big 10 is a bit stronger at the top, but as seen in the above, they get a lot more nights off than teams in the Pac, which is deeper than it's ever been.

Thanks Maynard. I've probably been accused more than once of being a bit of a Pac 12 homer. I did think it was a tough conference this year with just about every team other than the last place Cougs being competitive. Glad I'm not the only one.

gonzagafan62
03-01-2016, 03:47 PM
Here's why the pac is better than the big 10.

Kenpom:
84 Northwestern
98 Neb
133 Penn St
137 Illinois
169 Minnesota
306 Northwestern

That's 6 teams below the Pac's number 10 team Stanford, and 5 below its number 11 ASU. And 4 that are well down in the mid/low major level, where the Pac has one. The big 10 is a bit stronger at the top, but as seen in the above, they get a lot more nights off than teams in the Pac, which is deeper than it's ever been.

Those numbers are eye popping, where's Rutgers? They gotta be pretty bad too!i guess they are the real #306? Just curious However I don't think you can say any top 100 teams in the same breath as #306 Northwestern. 60-98 is not a big difference .... 60-150 is a huge difference, and obviously 306 is just plain awful for being in a power 5 conference. That's embarrassing ....

Coach Crazy
03-01-2016, 03:52 PM
Yeah the idea is to play those mid tier mid majors AT HOME, get the win, and RPI #'s rise.

Pac12 is filled with these gamers. Over inflated #'s and it's not as great of a conference as everyone makes it out to be

This is why I like the shift to BPI, KenPom, and Sagarin. You can't really game those systems so much.

gonzagafan62
03-01-2016, 05:05 PM
This is why I like the shift to BPI, KenPom, and Sagarin. You can't really game those systems so much.

Exactly why the RPI is an almost useless tool.

Jerry Palm has shockers outside the tournament bubble watch .... Wichita State last I checked was on top 10 in one of those rankings. Lunardi has them as a lock. As least that's what he posted on Twitter this week. They won't get a good seed, but they're in. Most "experts" still use the RPI as the main tool.

These same experts will be up for a rude awakening come selection Sunday. Book it

maynard g krebs
03-02-2016, 12:20 AM
Those numbers are eye popping, where's Rutgers? They gotta be pretty bad too!i guess they are the real #306? Just curious However I don't think you can say any top 100 teams in the same breath as #306 Northwestern. 60-98 is not a big difference .... 60-150 is a huge difference, and obviously 306 is just plain awful for being in a power 5 conference. That's embarrassing ....

Oops, typo. Yes Rutgers is 306. Will edit.

Zagnificent
03-02-2016, 05:27 AM
Thanks Maynard. I've probably been accused more than once of being a bit of a Pac 12 homer. I did think it was a tough conference this year with just about every team other than the last place Cougs being competitive. Glad I'm not the only one.

I was in the Huntsman Center to watch ASU v. Utah. ASU is just about as bad as any team I've ever seen, short of maybe LMU a few years back when they went winless. They only made it to 10 points at the half because Utah let up shortly before that point. In the Pac-12, they've beaten WSU twice, Oregon State and USC once. I honestly think that the Pac-12 is being overrated significantly. Cal isn't that great (they barely beat St. Mary's), and they're one of the better teams in the league. We've seen Arizona and UCLA. I wouldn't bet on either of them in March.

seacatfan
03-02-2016, 08:58 AM
I was in the Huntsman Center to watch ASU v. Utah. ASU is just about as bad as any team I've ever seen, short of maybe LMU a few years back when they went winless. They only made it to 10 points at the half because Utah let up shortly before that point. In the Pac-12, they've beaten WSU twice, Oregon State and USC once. I honestly think that the Pac-12 is being overrated significantly. Cal isn't that great (they barely beat St. Mary's), and they're one of the better teams in the league. We've seen Arizona and UCLA. I wouldn't bet on either of them in March.

I didn't watch that game, but obviously ASU was atrocious if they were down by 30 at the half. I think that game was an anomaly though, they've been competitive in most of their conference games. I don't think they are anywhere close to being a historically bad team. They did beat Texas A&M by double digits earlier this year. Also NC State and Creighton, kinda mediocre teams but not terrible. Those aren't the kind of OOC wins a completely inept team tends to pick up. Anyway we'll have to agree to disagree about the Pac 12 being overrated.


Hey since you saw Utah, what do you think about their chances of winning some games in the Tourney? They've been surging lately and Poeltl has been a beast. Got plenty of 3 point shooters, too.