PDA

View Full Version : Past Performance Is No Guarantee of Future Results



Zag365
02-28-2016, 02:17 PM
By all accounts, the WCC is a one-bid conference for the NCAA Tourney this year. That means GU, BYU, or SMC has to win three in a row to claim a spot. IF all three play up to their capability in their first round games, GU will than need back-to-back wins over BYU and SMC to advance. My recollection of the last two Saturday night games is pretty fresh (L to SMC and W @ BYU). I think we are clearly capable of beating both BYU and SMC. But, my recollection of the first two meetings is a bit gauzy at this point.

For those of you who are stats geeks, understand strategy and match-ups, and watch replays of the games, I'd really like to know what you think are the keys to beating BYU and SMC assuming the obvious (we have to come with energy, play physical, stay out of foul trouble, limit TOs, make FTs, etc.). I'm looking for insights that will explain how we go 2-0 against two teams that we were 1-3 against over the past two months.

willandi
02-28-2016, 02:55 PM
By all accounts, the WCC is a one-bid conference for the NCAA Tourney this year. That means GU, BYU, or SMC has to win three in a row to claim a spot. IF all three play up to their capability in their first round games, GU will than need back-to-back wins over BYU and SMC to advance. My recollection of the last two Saturday night games is pretty fresh (L to SMC and W @ BYU). I think we are clearly capable of beating both BYU and SMC. But, my recollection of the first two meetings is a bit gauzy at this point.

For those of you who are stats geeks, understand strategy and match-ups, and watch replays of the games, I'd really like to know what you think are the keys to beating BYU and SMC assuming the obvious (we have to come with energy, play physical, stay out of foul trouble, limit TOs, make FTs, etc.). I'm looking for insights that will explain how we go 2-0 against two teams that we were 1-3 against over the past two months.

If we made FT's, we are 3-1.

gonzagafan62
02-28-2016, 03:39 PM
By all accounts, the WCC is a one-bid conference for the NCAA Tourney this year. That means GU, BYU, or SMC has to win three in a row to claim a spot. IF all three play up to their capability in their first round games, GU will than need back-to-back wins over BYU and SMC to advance. My recollection of the last two Saturday night games is pretty fresh (L to SMC and W @ BYU). I think we are clearly capable of beating both BYU and SMC. But, my recollection of the first two meetings is a bit gauzy at this point.

For those of you who are stats geeks, understand strategy and match-ups, and watch replays of the games, I'd really like to know what you think are the keys to beating BYU and SMC assuming the obvious (we have to come with energy, play physical, stay out of foul trouble, limit TOs, make FTs, etc.). I'm looking for insights that will explain how we go 2-0 against two teams that we were 1-3 against over the past two months.

The least we could do is at least stop repeating the first sentence. Nobody knows for sure till selection Sunday.

Hoopaholic
02-28-2016, 04:15 PM
By all accounts, the WCC is a one-bid conference for the NCAA Tourney this year. That means GU, BYU, or SMC has to win three in a row to claim a spot. IF all three play up to their capability in their first round games, GU will than need back-to-back wins over BYU and SMC to advance. My recollection of the last two Saturday night games is pretty fresh (L to SMC and W @ BYU). I think we are clearly capable of beating both BYU and SMC. But, my recollection of the first two meetings is a bit gauzy at this point.

For those of you who are stats geeks, understand strategy and match-ups, and watch replays of the games, I'd really like to know what you think are the keys to beating BYU and SMC assuming the obvious (we have to come with energy, play physical, stay out of foul trouble, limit TOs, make FTs, etc.). I'm looking for insights that will explain how we go 2-0 against two teams that we were 1-3 against over the past two months.

turnovers and foul trouble

CdAZagFan
02-28-2016, 04:45 PM
If we made FT's, we are 3-1.

This. I believe the key to this team is having both KW and Domas play well. They don't have to both score 20 to win, but if one or both disappears (due to offensive inefficiency or foul trouble), we may be in trouble.

coolhandzag
02-28-2016, 04:45 PM
Sometimes life is like eating an elephant. One bit at a time.

Hit the boards. Lock down on D. Execute the offense.

Let Lanardi figure the rest out.

jim77
02-28-2016, 05:53 PM
Against ST. Mary's we need to NOT help their defense. The Gaels sag in the middle really bad...they accomplish 3 things by doing this: It makes Sabonis and Wiltjer WAY less effective down low...these 2 guys get the ball ripped off a lot when there doubled teamed. It also prevents our guards from penetrating cause their bigs are already there waiting. Lastly it prevents second shots cause their guys are already in position to get the rebound. So what do we do? We don't bother letting KW post up...in fact, we try to get him open looks from the outside....and preferably on the opposite side as Sabonis. We also have Domantas post up near the freethrow line. The idea is to spread them then attack them. We are quicker then them so creating space is important. What we don't want to do is what we did too much last night...force the ball inside into double coverage. We have got to drill 3's to really bust up their sagging....or spread them and drive on them.

Zag365
02-28-2016, 07:59 PM
Against ST. Mary's we need to NOT help their defense. The Gaels sag in the middle really bad...they accomplish 3 things by doing this: It makes Sabonis and Wiltjer WAY less effective down low...these 2 guys get the ball ripped off a lot when there doubled teamed. It also prevents our guards from penetrating cause their bigs are already there waiting. Lastly it prevents second shots cause their guys are already in position to get the rebound. So what do we do? We don't bother letting KW post up...in fact, we try to get him open looks from the outside....and preferably on the opposite side as Sabonis. We also have Domantas post up near the freethrow line. The idea is to spread them then attack them. We are quicker then them so creating space is important. What we don't want to do is what we did too much last night...force the ball inside into double coverage. We have got to drill 3's to really bust up their sagging....or spread them and drive on them.

Thanks 77. This is the kind of strateegery that I was looking for. It seems to me that we have to make specific adjustments and not just assume we can win by "executing" what we have done in prior four games against both BYU and SMC. They know our basic offense and have neutralized it. Sure we could hope that we run the same stuff a little cleaner or they have an off-night scoring, but I think we need to show some different looks that we know can both surprise their defense and take away what they are most effective at doing on D.

Outraged
02-28-2016, 08:16 PM
If we beat sm then they get in too . Their too is in the 40s

jim77
02-29-2016, 12:07 AM
Against ST. Mary's we need to NOT help their defense. The Gaels sag in the middle really bad...they accomplish 3 things by doing this: It makes Sabonis and Wiltjer WAY less effective down low...these 2 guys get the ball ripped off a lot when there doubled teamed. It also prevents our guards from penetrating cause their bigs are already there waiting. Lastly it prevents second shots cause their guys are already in position to get the rebound. So what do we do? We don't bother letting KW post up...in fact, we try to get him open looks from the outside....and preferably on the opposite side as Sabonis. We also have Domantas post up near the freethrow line. The idea is to spread them then attack them. We are quicker then them so creating space is important. What we don't want to do is what we did too much last night...force the ball inside into double coverage. We have got to drill 3's to really bust up their sagging....or spread them and drive on them.

I'll add one more thing....when Sabonis does get the ball down low....the guards need to break hard to the hoop...from different directions...to receive a pass from Domantas. It happened a few times against BYU...and they weren't ready for it either...its what PK does so well. Driving blindly into their defense won't work...they were simply waiting for us last time. Make them work..make them move..then their playing our game.

adoptedzag
02-29-2016, 07:58 AM
Also, there's no guarantee that SMC gets past pepperdine in the quarters. They haven't managed to figure out the Waves this season.

Coach Crazy
02-29-2016, 08:41 AM
The least we could do is at least stop repeating the first sentence. Nobody knows for sure till selection Sunday.

+1

ProVeeZag
02-29-2016, 01:02 PM
Against ST. Mary's we need to NOT help their defense. The Gaels sag in the middle really bad...they accomplish 3 things by doing this: It makes Sabonis and Wiltjer WAY less effective down low...these 2 guys get the ball ripped off a lot when there doubled teamed. It also prevents our guards from penetrating cause their bigs are already there waiting. Lastly it prevents second shots cause their guys are already in position to get the rebound. So what do we do? We don't bother letting KW post up...in fact, we try to get him open looks from the outside....and preferably on the opposite side as Sabonis. We also have Domantas post up near the freethrow line. The idea is to spread them then attack them. We are quicker then them so creating space is important. What we don't want to do is what we did too much last night...force the ball inside into double coverage. We have got to drill 3's to really bust up their sagging....or spread them and drive on them.

Damn, this is good!

ProVeeZag
02-29-2016, 01:10 PM
The least we could do is at least stop repeating the first sentence. Nobody knows for sure till selection Sunday.

If Zags win the WCC title, we will never know for sure whether we were "at large"-worthy. What we would all like to know, we may never want to know! I'm NOT wishing for a loss in the WCC tourney, but am more than curious to find out how the "at large or not" debate would turn out. If you are "ALL IN' on saying Zags are worthy of an at-large berth, I'm also betting you secretly don't want to put it to the test.

gonzagafan62
02-29-2016, 01:27 PM
If Zags win the WCC title, we will never know for sure whether we were "at large"-worthy. What we would all like to know, we may never want to know! I'm NOT wishing for a loss in the WCC tourney, but am more than curious to find out how the "at large or not" debate would turn out. If you are "ALL IN' on saying Zags are worthy of an at-large berth, I'm also betting you secretly don't want to put it to the test.

Bam! 100% accurate

ZagOD7540
02-29-2016, 01:59 PM
When facing Mary, we need to play solid man defense and prevent them blowing by us in the lane for lay ins. The problem is everyone needs to be on board and play good help defense, then recover when they kick it out for the 3 ball. They went at Wiltjer and it hurt us because he wasn't quick enough to recover off of their high ball screens. Maybe mix it up with some zone to give them different looks. BYU seems content on just firing 3s. We need to "chop off the head of the snake" and that is Collinsworth. Get him in foul trouble. You can't let him get going like we did in the 2nd half in Spokane. Contest all 3s that they shoot. Maybe run through the shooter once to let them know that you are there! They will think about it the next time.

Offensively, Wilt has to get it going in Vegas. If any of you out there watch Utah play, that Poetl is terrific on the high ball screen. He comes out to set the pick and he immediately rolls down the middle of the lane looking for the pass or he establishes himself on the low block if the roll isn't there. The pass then goes to the wing and then the feed down low. With Wiltjer, he pops out for the 3 or he "posts up" out at the wing after the high ball screen. If Wilt would roll directly down the lane a couple of times and then establish himself on the block, he would be unstoppable. When he catches and shoots or catches and pivots after one or no dribble, you can't stop him. This would then keep the defense honest and they wouldn't know whether he's going to "pick and pop" or "pick and roll". It would open up things so much for him. Poetl's a great scorer for Utah, but he doesn't shoot the 3 like Wilt does. We've missed out on this all season. There is not a player in the WCC that can stop him. Also after is ball fakes, he needs to go up into the defender to draw the foul and get to the FT line. He's got to quit "side stepping" that defender in the air. He should shoot no less than 10 FTs a game.

Keep up the aggressiveness on both ends Domas...the kid gives it his all on both ends.

rennis
02-29-2016, 02:10 PM
Shots have to fall from the outside down the stretch, plain and simple. BYU was ice cold most of the game Saturday, and that was very fortunate.

I think Wiltjer was 0-5 during a critical stretch in the 2nd half that saw BYU grab almost all of the momentum. KW is an enigma when his shot isn't falling - you want him to keep shooting because he's always one shot away from getting red hot. But if he doesn't heat up, he really hurts the offense - he's frequently not looking for the open man, including missed opportunities for Domas.

ZagOD7540
02-29-2016, 02:25 PM
Shots have to fall from the outside down the stretch, plain and simple. BYU was ice cold most of the game Saturday, and that was very fortunate.

I think Wiltjer was 0-5 during a critical stretch in the 2nd half that saw BYU grab almost all of the momentum. KW is an enigma when his shot isn't falling - you want him to keep shooting because he's always one shot away from getting red hot. But if he doesn't heat up, he really hurts the offense - he's frequently not looking for the open man, including missed opportunities for Domas.


When Wilt is off, he needs to draw a foul and get to the FT line. Nothing better than getting back into rhythm from the stripe!

Zag_Dad
02-29-2016, 03:45 PM
Also, there's no guarantee that SMC gets past pepperdine in the quarters. They haven't managed to figure out the Waves this season.

http://www.wccsports.com/news/crumpacker-a-look-at-the-wcchoops-tournament-02-29-2016

gonzagafan62
02-29-2016, 05:14 PM
http://www.wccsports.com/news/crumpacker-a-look-at-the-wcchoops-tournament-02-29-2016

Must read ! Thanks for sharing Z_D

jayray
02-29-2016, 05:49 PM
If we beat sm then they get in too . Their too is in the 40s

That is my take on it too. Aren't Lunardi's brackets based on today? They don't assume a conference tournament win (or loss). By Lunardi putting them in now the question should be when GU beats SM in the title game does that loss push SM out of the tournament. I don't think so.