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View Full Version : OT: The Decline of St. Mary's 3-point Percentages



thegloriousgoateeofKP
02-17-2016, 07:40 PM
Fascinating look into how St. Mary's fooled us all.

http://basketballpredictions.blogspot.com/2016/02/what-saint-marys-fade-says-about.html

RenoZag
02-17-2016, 08:11 PM
Thanks for the link.

That blog is one of the listed resources found in the General Basketball forum:

http://guboards.spokesmanreview.com/showthread.php?25728-Basketball-Sites-for-Hoops-Junkies

ZagaZags
02-17-2016, 08:42 PM
Thanks for the link.

That blog is one of the listed resources found in the General Basketball forum:

http://guboards.spokesmanreview.com/showthread.php?25728-Basketball-Sites-for-Hoops-Junkies

Thanks for the reminder. :cheers:

Coach Crazy
02-17-2016, 09:42 PM
Fascinating look into how St. Mary's fooled us all.

http://basketballpredictions.blogspot.com/2016/02/what-saint-marys-fade-says-about.html

Didn't fool all of us. I think it is a little simpler when it comes to the reasoning behind their decline. But I am always glad to see some analytics.

MDABE80
02-17-2016, 11:58 PM
Goatee....nice post. Looking at the data points on the regression line, it seems the good and bad mostly balance. Could be lots of things happened. Individual variables weren't tested it seems.
The thing bout that line is the last point which is dramatically an uptick. It means while this is a nice regression line with a few major outlying data points, they can still shoot the lights of on any given night. I do wish the author had given us a "P" value.........but looking at the line, there's insufficient variance to matter much.

ZagaZags
02-18-2016, 12:13 AM
This is what happens when you finally play a road game.

Coach Crazy
02-18-2016, 08:02 AM
Goatee....nice post. Looking at the data points on the regression line, it seems the good and bad mostly balance. Could be lots of things happened. Individual variables weren't tested it seems.
The thing bout that line is the last point which is dramatically an uptick. It means while this is a nice regression line with a few major outlying data points, they can still shoot the lights of on any given night. I do wish the author had given us a "P" value.........but looking at the line, there's insufficient variance to matter much.

I can't believe we are agreeing on something, but I agree that the blog post is inconclusive with regard to the data points. Nor do I think they are necessarily corollary. Pinning as much as he is on 3P shooting makes it hard to create an objective case, even for the author.

sittingon50
02-18-2016, 08:43 AM
SMC shot the 3 ball crappy vs GU the 1st time. The difference was in the # of FT's taken.

ZagnetitForce
02-18-2016, 09:23 AM
I still do not understand how we lost that game...or the BYU game.

ZagOD7540
02-18-2016, 10:22 AM
Come on Portland! I hope they absolutely "light them up" tonight...then have to come in to the Kennel on Saturday night! We can only look forward. KD is playing well, Silas seems to be out of his "funk", and Wilt should be aggressive as possible the rest of the way...he needs to get to the foul line! (No FTs in last 2 games...unreal), and Domas playing with energy as he always does. His defense this year has been fantastic. He goes straight up and plays smart and doesn't commit the dumb foul. He has grown so much from last year to this year on the defensive end. Love the fire that burns in that kid's belly!

gonstu
02-18-2016, 11:06 AM
I'm thinking it's best for zags if SMC wins tonight. Can't afford them dropping out of the RPI top 100.

VinnyZag
02-18-2016, 12:36 PM
On a similar subject of basketball randomness, one of the things that terrifies me about GU is that the Zags are second in the nation in 3-point percentage defense, according to KenPom (subscription) (http://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Gonzaga), at 28.2 percent.

Basically, we're due for a team to go off and hit 15 3's in a game, ala Wichita State.

DixieZag
02-18-2016, 01:05 PM
I don't read stats well, Zaga mentioned that it is the result of going on the road and I think this could play off that a bit.

Did anyone notice that the rims at SMC seemed softer than anywhere else we played this year? I distinctly recall them getting at least 2 threes that bounced about 3 times up off rims, off the backboard and then in. One sees that happen all the time down at a run at the Y, even more so outside somewhere. But, it is almost never seen in the arenas where they play D-1 or NBA games. I just wondered if those softer rims (if indeed they were) played a small role in it.

TexasZagFan
02-18-2016, 01:23 PM
I'm thinking it's best for zags if SMC wins tonight. Can't afford them dropping out of the RPI top 100.

Sorry, have to disagree with you. I'd rather go into Provo next week with a two game lead over SMC.

gonstu
02-18-2016, 01:40 PM
Sorry, have to disagree with you. I'd rather go into Provo next week with a two game lead over SMC.

TZF - Zags will beat Pacific. Zags will beat SMC. Zags will beat @ USD. Zags will go into Provo next week with a two game lead over SMC - regardless of what SMC does elsewhere. (And I'll watch them clinch sole possession of championship live down here at the Slim Gym) :)