Bubble, ESPN

[jazzdelmar]

Saint Mary's [18-2 (9-1), RPI: 46, SOS: 215] Lo and behold: It's the Gaels, and not the Kyle Wiltjer-led Gonzaga Bulldogs, who have emerged as the class of the West Coast Conference. How'd this happen? In a word: buckets. Saint Mary's is one of the most efficient offensive forces in the sport, a hot-shooting, timely-passing, ball-and-man-moving show more than worth the price of admission. Defense is another matter. So is the resume: zero top-50 wins, no notable victories on the road, and -- as you might imagine for a team with 13 wins against top-150-or-lower teams -- some pretty horrific schedule data. It's a brittle team sheet: One or two losses placed just so could send the whole thing crashing.

Gonzaga [17-5 (9-2), RPI: 72, SOS: 118] Among the reasons the Gaels don't have a quality win to their name? Gonzaga's unusual sabbatical from being Gonzaga. Usually, the Zags are tightening their stranglehold over the WCC and preserving their preferred see, at this time of year. In 2015-16, however, they've lost to UCLA, BYU and Arizona on their own floor and claim Washington, Connecticut and Pepperdine (which is on the edge) as their only top-100 wins. If the tourney were today, we're not sure how Mark Few's team would get in. Losing center Przemek Karnowski to injury was killer, but the Zags' guard play has been an even worse problem all season. Even with an obvious and sensible basketball explanation at hand, this feels weird.

[gonzagafan62]

That RPI is really rough lol

[Mr Vulture]

If we win out the remaining eight games, we will be in regardless of the Conference Tournament result. If we win out the regular season conference games, but lose to SMU, we will need to make the Conference Championship Game to get in. If we lose a conference game, but beat SMU, and make the Conference Championship Game we will be in. If we lose two games the rest of the regular season we will NEED to win the Conference Tournament to get in.

[MDABE80]

Hard to imagine a 25-5 or a 25-6 team name Gonzaga not getting in. Just is. Politics play a role as does prior track record. We are liked. We'll get in. I have no doubt.

[SanDiegoZag]

The Zags will certainly be in the NCAA Tourney if they finish the regular season 7-1. I'm just not sure how likely that is...

[Pargo the Destroyer]

The hubris of the fan base is a tad insane. Rpi of 72.....how many non automatic qualifiers does the tourney select?. Math doesnt add up. Assuming a bump in rpi should they go undefeated but the likelihood of that happening is...well.....I dont see it.

[Zags11]

Hard to imagine a 25-5 or a 25-6 team name Gonzaga not getting in. Just is. Politics play a role as does prior track record. We are liked. We'll get in. I have no doubt.

This.

[CDC84]

They cannot afford losses to either LMU or Pepperdine this weekend, period.

First things first. And for gosh sakes, if you get a big second half lead, please build on it.

[GonzagasaurusFlex]

The hubris of the fan base is a tad insane. Rpi of 72.....how many non automatic qualifiers does the tourney select?. Math doesnt add up. Assuming a bump in rpi should they go undefeated but the likelihood of that happening is...well.....I dont see it.

This

[Bogozags]

All our remaining road games are tough...we have to win all of them to have any chance of getting an at large bid...or it is a WCC Tourney Championship...

Politics isn't an issue with the Selection Committee, especially for a school coming from a mid-major conference....IMO

[strikenowhere]

Hard to imagine a 25-5 or a 25-6 team name Gonzaga not getting in. Just is. Politics play a role as does prior track record. We are liked. We'll get in. I have no doubt.

Personal opinion ahead (you've been warned!) -

Blue-bloods and other several other high-majors would get the benefit of the doubt (and would be spotted twice the losses). As good as they've been over the last 15+ years, Gonzaga is not yet a blue-blood and as a result are susceptible to missing out on a seat. They need to concentrate on winning out the regular season, and barring that, winning the WCC tournament. Anything less results in an invitation to the NIT.

[john montana]

I don't like our chances at an at large unless we win out.

[RenoZag]

Is this a naysayer thread ? Or a realistic discussion thread ?

Will worry about the "bubble" after March 8th.

[Coach Crazy]

The hubris of the fan base is a tad insane. Rpi of 72.....how many non automatic qualifiers does the tourney select?. Math doesnt add up. Assuming a bump in rpi should they go undefeated but the likelihood of that happening is...well.....I dont see it.

Provided that RPI remains static regardless of results, then we would not make the Dance with that high of an RPI.

Since RPI is not static, we really won't know what we are until a) they have lost a certain amount of games or b) they have won out.

Part of it isn't even dependent upon us.

[whatazag]

If we win out the regular season, obviously we should be in. But losing 2 more games is very realistic, and in that scenario we'd be going in to the WCC tourney with an RPI around 50 and between 1 and 3 top 50 wins. I would certainly be nervous on selection Sunday if we did not win the WCC tourney with that profile.