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Martin Centre Mad Man
12-26-2015, 05:08 PM
I spent a little time looking at Gonzaga's RPI and the WCC RPI performance using the CBS Sports RPI tool, this evening. What I found is not encouraging on either count.

The Zags' RPI is above 50 with a strength of schedule above 50. That is dangerous for any team that needs an at-large bid to the Big Dance. It doesn't help that we have no wins against teams in the Top 100 of the RPI. Our best wins are against Washington, UCONN, and Tennessee. Those teams are all in the 100-150 range. None would be considered a quality win by the Selection Committee if they were evaluating our resume at this moment.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/rpi/GONZAG/gonzaga-bulldogs

The WCC is unusually bad, this year. After several years when the league was either in the Top 10 or just outside of the Top 10 in cumulative RPI, the league has plummeted to 17th. The league ranks behind such powerhouses as the Big West and the SOCON. The WCC W-L record was barely above .500.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/conference


The league has no wins against Top 50 opponents. The WCC's best win was BYU's win against Northern Iowa, a team that is just outside of the Top 50.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/conference/breakdown/2015/WCC/west-coast-conference

The league has as many teams with RPIs above 300 (3) as below 100 and BYU is BARELY in the Top 100. http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/standings

The Zags have a very thin margin for error with this resume. Their strength of schedule is weaker than usual, so any losses compound a weak RPI and a lack of signature wins. I hope that the performances we saw against Pepperdine and LMU are indicative of what this team will do against WCC opponents. This team cannot afford many losses to them.

I do have questions for those who are more familiar with the RPI formula. Can this team's RPI improve in light of the weak conference schedule? How many games will this team need to win to bring the RPI back into safer sub 40 territory? Is there an algorithm that shows this?

DixieZag
12-26-2015, 05:30 PM
Ugh.

Not a pretty picture.

GoZags
12-26-2015, 05:38 PM
Zags will be fine. Their KenPom is #23 with a chance for 7 more games v Top 50 ish opponents (if they get both BYU and SMC in the WCC tourney). Their Sagarin is #24 and their Coaches Poll ranking is #24.

It's not the same as "most" years ... but it's my belief that the Zags will "take care of business" and be just fine.

willandi
12-26-2015, 05:42 PM
I think if the zags go undefeated in conference play, or lose just 1, they are in for sure. Obviously if they win the WCC tourney they get the automatic. The comittee could also see the loss of Karno as mitigating the Arizona and the UCLA losses. The team has begun to play much better in his absence.

The RPI of the 3 OCC losses will probably improve, they are all from power conferences, and the OCC teams we beat will also probably improve.

The Zags have found a way for 17 years, and I, for one, am not ready to throw in the towel. If this is the year the streak ends, I am still a fan and feel the Zags will start a new streak next year.

Martin Centre Mad Man
12-26-2015, 05:50 PM
Zags will be fine. Their KenPom is #23 with a chance for 7 more games v Top 50 ish opponents (if they get both BYU and SMC in the WCC tourney). Their Sagarin is #24 and their Coaches Poll ranking is #24.

It's not the same as "most" years ... but it's my belief that the Zags will "take care of business" and be just fine.

Does the Selection Committee use KenPom or Sagarin? I will feel better about this team's resume, if they do.

I agree that this team looks more like a team that should be ranked somewhere in the 23-27 range than a team in the 50s.

Zagdawg
12-26-2015, 05:56 PM
The good thing about our OOC wins -- the majority of the RPIs will improve as they enter conference play and we have SMU for another potential good win.

Hope is not lost ---just keep on winning.

caduceus
12-26-2015, 06:05 PM
Current RPI probabilities (regular season only), per http://rpiforecast.com



Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-319.40.75%
25-423.15.85%
24-528.417.13%
23-634.829.58%
22-742.925.53%
21-852.014.79%
20-963.44.93%
19-1076.11.22%
18-1190.50.19%
17-12114.00.01%
16-13129.00.01%


Definitely the worst I've seen in a long time. These probabilities will most certainly change over time, but barely breaking #20 RPI even with running the table ain't pretty.

BTW, you can play with the numbers with the RPI Wizard on that site (for example "what would Zags' RPI be if we had beaten Arizona and UCLA").

Martin Centre Mad Man
12-26-2015, 06:14 PM
Current RPI probabilities (regular season only), per http://rpiforecast.com



Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-319.40.75%
25-423.15.85%
24-528.417.13%
23-634.829.58%
22-742.925.53%
21-852.014.79%
20-963.44.93%
19-1076.11.22%
18-1190.50.19%
17-12114.00.01%
16-13129.00.01%


Definitely the worst I've seen in a long time. These probabilities will most certainly change over time, but barely breaking #20 RPI even with running the table ain't pretty.

BTW, you can play with the numbers with the RPI Wizard on that site (for example "what would Zags' RPI be if we had beaten Arizona and UCLA").

Thanks for sharing that tool.

GUfan34
12-26-2015, 07:03 PM
Yeah that's a cool chart.

So, it looks like we can afford 2-3 more losses...

So, yeah, the streak is in jeopardy.

@BYU, @SMC, and of course that one random road game we (SF? SD?) we'll struggle with will be very, very important this year.

DixieZag
12-26-2015, 07:23 PM
It seems like at SMC and SMU will define our season from this point out - assuming no disastrous 2-3 losses. I would like to think we can near assume Ws at home but last year's BYU game still haunts me.

maynard g krebs
12-26-2015, 07:42 PM
UConn is currently 30 on Kenpom, and the Big East's conf RPI is third. So assuming they play as they have so far, their upcoming schedule strength should be enough for them to end up in the top 50, since 3/4 of the RPI is SOS.

The Pac 12 is second in conf RPI. Washington is currently 94 on Kenpom, and young as they are they should improve. That should be a top 100 win as well. I assume the committee would look at GU's play the first few games w/o Karno, and how they played once they adjusted to the loss as well.

It's way too early to look at RPI, as teams from the top few conferences will see their RPI's climb as they play each other.

Also, RPI is really used more as a kind of sorting tool to differentiate between teams with similar records. Teams in the low 20's have been left out, and teams down around 70 have made it. And seeds don't necessarily correlate to RPI. One example I remember is the Oregon team of 2002 or 2003, can't remember which, but they won a strong Pac 10 by 2 games, yet had an RPI of 31 due to some bad December losses, and got a 2 seed.

Too early to worry about RPI.

MDABE80
12-26-2015, 09:46 PM
The UCLA and AZ losses were without him. I'm thinking somebody will notice we really DO have a new team since then. Guards finally are learning to play the game and interest with the remaining bigs. WIthout Karno , it's a whole new look IMO. I doubt we knew how integral he was to the old team. We lost the A& M game by 1 pt.
I think the new, more mature team is looking better and will continue to look better. Big tests with SMC, BYU amd of course SMU. We win those, we're in with a decent seed. I hope we beat the rest of the league handily.
Key to everything, besides winning the games is whther Edwards comes along by mid Jan- Feb and if the guards continue to play better with ALberts shooting as well as he has.
Biggest of all in winning these games will be the defense.W're not a high octane offense as in past years even though we've looked better. Tough defense will carry us....it has to. Few has his work cutout for him as he reforms this team without a big in the middle. Changes everything as we've seen so far. A very focused defense will help the offense tremendously.

realtydog
12-26-2015, 09:51 PM
Too early to worry about RPI.

really? you think the WCC has some good wins by the bottom 2/3 that will sparkle later

seacatfan
12-26-2015, 10:01 PM
Maynard, UConn is now in the American Athletic Conf., not the Big East. The AAC has several good teams at the top but gets fairly weak thru the middle and bottom.

Also while UW may improve as the season goes on, the Pac 12 looks REALLY competitive top to bottom this year, I suspect the Dawgs are going to be hard pressed to go .500 or better in conference. Romar coached teams have historically done poorly on the road and there don't look to be any cake walk teams this year. Wazzu may very well be the worst team in the conference and they were scrappy against GU. USC looks to be vastly improved. Oregon St. is no slouch. Colorado is much better than last year. Arizona and Utah aren't quite as good as last year but still strong. Cal is better, UCLA might be better, Oregon is probably about the same. Stanford might also be in the running for worst team in the league, and they aren't exactly terrible. ASU is probably improved from last year.

CDC84
12-26-2015, 10:41 PM
Jerry Palm has said on more than one occasion that the RPI is almost meaningless until early February. You need at least one round of conference play to kick in before it can begin to make any sense. I have not even looked at the RPI yet, and I will not do so until GU has played every WCC team at least once. I trust Palm's judgment on this.

GU's three losses came to likely NCAA tournament teams. They lost by 1 to A&M, by 5 to Zona and by 5 to UCLA. There are no bad losses right now. Ever since the 2004 GU team landed a number 2 seed despite only having one top 50 RPI win, I began to realize how important winning games is to the committee, how quality wins are overrated, and how bad losses kill you more than anything else. Or as I like to say, "you need to do a lot of stupid things to miss the NCAA tournament."

Honestly, there have been very few years since Few took over the program where some pundit hasn't come out and said that Gonzaga has very little margin for error entering league play. It's old news. And yet it all works out in the end.

If unranked Gonzaga goes down to Santa Clara and USF next weekend and drops one or two games in gyms where very few students will be present, well, then I might start thinking about the "less margin for error" thing.

maynard g krebs
12-26-2015, 11:25 PM
Maynard, UConn is now in the American Athletic Conf., not the Big East. The AAC has several good teams at the top but gets fairly weak thru the middle and bottom.



Oops. As Emily Litella said, never mind. AAC is something like 8th, so their RPI won't rise that much unless they dominate. Still a good win though.

As to UW, I think 7-11 or even 6-12 in league gets them in the top 100 of the RPI, given the fact that there are nine teams that are either in as of now according to Lunardi or in the first 8 out (6 in, 3 second four out).

WallaWallaZag
12-26-2015, 11:38 PM
could really care less...if zags haven't improved enough to win the conference and/or tournament, they aren't going to do anything significant on the big stage anyways. if zags continue to improve at the pace they're on, only thing left to see will be what kind of seed is given.

ZagsGoZags
12-27-2015, 12:18 AM
I wonder why the selection committee would consider Karno's injury.
Nearly all teams have injury problems or sickness, for a player or two.
Also I could see why they would factor him in if he was back to playing well by end of Feb.
Then the logic is clearly they are good with him, not so good without him, now he is with him, so GU is good again.
If the selection committee would gives us a 'credit' for losing a top player like Karno, who cannot play in March (if he couldn't),
then wouldn't they have to give all teams with an injury to one of their top players a similar credit?
can someone explain?

jazzdelmar
12-27-2015, 02:26 AM
The Bearcats lost a top seed years ago when Kenyon Martin got hurt and was lost for the tourney. They were actually penalized for losing their best player. While losing Karno may make the Zags a more valiant team, they are clearly a lesser one.

Why do you all think then that the committee will reward GU with a higher seed in the wake of his departure for the season? That makes no sense.

To string out this odd thought process, if the Zags ended up with five walk-ons do you think the committee would present them with a top seed irrespective of their W-L record?

The point is, if a top player were out for, say, a couple games, and those ended up being losses or poor performances, but said player were then to return 100% to the fold, then the NCAA might minimize the impact of the bad play on his team's seeding. That's not happening here.

Coach Crazy
12-27-2015, 06:29 AM
could really care less...if zags haven't improved enough to win the conference and/or tournament, they aren't going to do anything significant on the big stage anyways. if zags continue to improve at the pace they're on, only thing left to see will be what kind of seed is given.

At their current clip they'll run away with both. They don't need to improve to win both, handily. They will improve, but let's stop pretending this conference is legitimate.

gonzagafan62
12-27-2015, 07:52 AM
I spent a little time looking at Gonzaga's RPI and the WCC RPI performance using the CBS Sports RPI tool, this evening. What I found is not encouraging on either count.

The Zags' RPI is above 50 with a strength of schedule above 50. That is dangerous for any team that needs an at-large bid to the Big Dance. It doesn't help that we have no wins against teams in the Top 100 of the RPI. Our best wins are against Washington, UCONN, and Tennessee. Those teams are all in the 100-150 range. None would be considered a quality win by the Selection Committee if they were evaluating our resume at this moment.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/rpi/GONZAG/gonzaga-bulldogs

The WCC is unusually bad, this year. After several years when the league was either in the Top 10 or just outside of the Top 10 in cumulative RPI, the league has plummeted to 17th. The league ranks behind such powerhouses as the Big West and the SOCON. The WCC W-L record was barely above .500.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/conference


The league has no wins against Top 50 opponents. The WCC's best win was BYU's win against Northern Iowa, a team that is just outside of the Top 50.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/conference/breakdown/2015/WCC/west-coast-conference

The league has as many teams with RPIs above 300 (3) as below 100 and BYU is BARELY in the Top 100. http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/standings

The Zags have a very thin margin for error with this resume. Their strength of schedule is weaker than usual, so any losses compound a weak RPI and a lack of signature wins. I hope that the performances we saw against Pepperdine and LMU are indicative of what this team will do against WCC opponents. This team cannot afford many losses to them.

I do have questions for those who are more familiar with the RPI formula. Can this team's RPI improve in light of the weak conference schedule? How many games will this team need to win to bring the RPI back into safer sub 40 territory? Is there an algorithm that shows this?

I told people two weeks ago after the UCLA loss that our streak was in jeopardy. People laughed at me ...

willandi
12-27-2015, 07:59 AM
I told people two weeks ago after the UCLA loss that our streak was in jeopardy. People laughed at me ...

It seems that most of the issues raised in MCMM's original post have been dealt with.

The streak is in jeopardy every year. The Zags, at least at this point, control their own destiny.

DixieZag
12-27-2015, 08:06 AM
The Bearcats lost a top seed years ago when Kenyon Martin got hurt and was lost for the tourney. They were actually penalized for losing their best player. While losing Karno may make the Zags a more valiant team, they are clearly a lesser one.

Why do you all think then that the committee will reward GU with a higher seed in the wake of his departure for the season? That makes no sense.

To string out this odd thought process, if the Zags ended up with five walk-ons do you think the committee would present them with a top seed irrespective of their W-L record?

The point is, if a top player were out for, say, a couple games, and those ended up being losses or poor performances, but said player were then to return 100% to the fold, then the NCAA might minimize the impact of the bad play on his team's seeding. That's not happening here.

I think the predicate is "they lost a star, played bad for 2 weeks, picked up a couple losses, then began to improve, and finished very strong, looking good".

Your point about "5 walk ons" doesn't hold up unless those 5 walk-ons are playing better than the 5 hurt guys, with a record and quality wins to prove it.

coolhandzag
12-27-2015, 08:16 AM
Beat SC.

TravelinZag
12-27-2015, 08:23 AM
GU's three losses came to likely NCAA tournament teams. They lost by 1 to A&M, by 5 to Zona and by 5 to UCLA. There are no bad losses right now.

Slight quibble, CDC. Zags lost two HOME games they were FAVORED to win, and underperformed before national tv viewers. These are Bad Losses, and they do matter. If the Zags beat SMU on the road, win the conference and WCC tourney, and lose narrowly to SMC or BYU on the road, they might play the first two rounds in Spokane. That would make a huge difference. JMHO, but the season, considering Karno's injury and the lack of depth, would be a great success. Anything more would be gravy, but not entirely out of reach. The power of belief and will! See UConn's last national championship; not the best team that year, just the good team that wanted it the most.

Go Zags!

Reborn
12-27-2015, 08:31 AM
Jerry Palm has said on more than one occasion that the RPI is almost meaningless until early February. You need at least one round of conference play to kick in before it can begin to make any sense. I have not even looked at the RPI yet, and I will not do so until GU has played every WCC team at least once. I trust Palm's judgment on this.

GU's three losses came to likely NCAA tournament teams. They lost by 1 to A&M, by 5 to Zona and by 5 to UCLA. There are no bad losses right now. Ever since the 2004 GU team landed a number 2 seed despite only having one top 50 RPI win, I began to realize how important winning games is to the committee, how quality wins are overrated, and how bad losses kill you more than anything else. Or as I like to say, "you need to do a lot of stupid things to miss the NCAA tournament."

Honestly, there have been very few years since Few took over the program where some pundit hasn't come out and said that Gonzaga has very little margin for error entering league play. It's old news. And yet it all works out in the end.

If unranked Gonzaga goes down to Santa Clara and USF next weekend and drops one or two games in gyms where very few students will be present, well, then I might start thinking about the "less margin for error" thing.

Great post. Thanks. I really believe that some people are addicted to thinking negative. It's like their world could not be okay unless something negative is going on. I believe that a fair number of people who post here try with all their effort to make others believe the crap that comes out of their minds. To think that Gonzaga will not make the NCAA playoffs this year this early in the season, when we have only played two conference games, is just plain dysfunction thinking. The facts right now indicate that Gonzaga is playing really good now. How can people be negative when the team is playing well. I don't get it, but I know it's true. Even when things are going well, they must still come here and try to create a false story of why Gonzaga will not make it to the NCAA Tournament. They base their story on fear and not reality.....

Coach Crazy
12-27-2015, 08:52 AM
Jerry Palm has said on more than one occasion that the RPI is almost meaningless until early February. You need at least one round of conference play to kick in before it can begin to make any sense. I have not even looked at the RPI yet, and I will not do so until GU has played every WCC team at least once. I trust Palm's judgment on this.

GU's three losses came to likely NCAA tournament teams. They lost by 1 to A&M, by 5 to Zona and by 5 to UCLA. There are no bad losses right now. Ever since the 2004 GU team landed a number 2 seed despite only having one top 50 RPI win, I began to realize how important winning games is to the committee, how quality wins are overrated, and how bad losses kill you more than anything else. Or as I like to say, "you need to do a lot of stupid things to miss the NCAA tournament."

Honestly, there have been very few years since Few took over the program where some pundit hasn't come out and said that Gonzaga has very little margin for error entering league play. It's old news. And yet it all works out in the end.

If unranked Gonzaga goes down to Santa Clara and USF next weekend and drops one or two games in gyms where very few students will be present, well, then I might start thinking about the "less margin for error" thing.

Can this be a Sticky?

Goshzagit
12-27-2015, 07:07 PM
wasn't it in 2006-2007, we literally lost 10 games, barely won the WCC tournament, only had (1) RPI Top-50 win, and STILL made the Tourney?

a #10 seed no less…

Or in 2011, identical deal…lost 9 or 10 games…and made the Tourney as an 11 seed…

We act as if this is the only season the Conference Title was of most importance.

Been here before…

Even if we lose 2 or 3 more -- betcha we're still dancing...

WallaWallaZag
12-27-2015, 09:45 PM
wasn't it in 2006-2007, we literally lost 10 games, barely won the WCC tournament, only had (1) RPI Top-50 win, and STILL made the Tourney?

a #10 seed no less…

Or in 2011, identical deal…lost 9 or 10 games…and made the Tourney as an 11 seed…

We act as if this is the only season the Conference Title was of most importance.

Been here before…

Even if we lose 2 or 3 more -- betcha we're still dancing...

reminder: the winner of the wcc conference tournament gets an automatic berth to the "tourney" (not the winner of the regular season)...and i believe that is what happened both of the years you quoted...very likely would not have made the cut otherwise.

CDC84
12-29-2015, 03:39 PM
Slight quibble, CDC. Zags lost two HOME games they were FAVORED to win, and underperformed before national tv viewers. These are Bad Losses, and they do matter.

I know of very few reputable college basketball analysts who would say those were bad losses. They would say that they were missed opportunities for quality wins. Western Illinois going into the Kohl Center and beating Wisconsin is the definition of a bad loss. Hofstra beating Florida State on their home floor is a bad loss that could haunt them come Selection Sunday. If the Zags lose to Santa Clara at SCU or at K2, that would be a bad loss. It is impossible to have a bad loss against a team that is likely to make the NCAA tournament. Doesn't matter where the loss took place, doesn't matter what Vegas thinks.

The UCLA and Zona losses are likely to only effect seeding so long as GU avoids bad losses within league. Not that seeding isn't very important.

MDABE80
12-29-2015, 03:57 PM
I don't think those early season losses are going bother us. What WILL bother the seeding is if ( as CDC points out) we lose some league games which we're favored to win. Not the points, not anything really will influence how it's looked at. We need the wins. Big wins in league and then come SMU. who is undefeated right now. That's a huge test near the end of the season. I don't know if the Karno situation matters to the committe but both of those UCLA, AZ losses came without him. I really do believe the whole team had to be reshaped. Guards have picked it up quite a bit in their performances and there is a new look with the bigs.
As the season progresses, I believe this team (sans Karno) is and will be different from the early team. Nothing against Karno but with the talent left we should be fine even with a short bench. It'll be harder but we'll get the wins.

Ezag
12-30-2015, 02:43 PM
WCC = LOL

:vomit-smiley-007:

bartruff1
12-30-2015, 02:59 PM
All the bad mouthing of St Mary's schedule in here...and the last time I looked they had a better RPI than Gonzaga ???

seacatfan
12-30-2015, 03:46 PM
Hofstra beating Florida State on their home floor is a bad loss that could haunt them come Selection Sunday.

All Florida St. needs to do is win one game against a Duke, North Carolina, Louisville, Virginia in ACC play and that Hofstra loss is wiped away.

ProjectMKUltra5
12-30-2015, 03:49 PM
All the bad mouthing of St Mary's schedule in here...and the last time I looked they had a better RPI than Gonzaga ???

The combined record of all the teams St Marys beat is 52-59. They're doing the same thing they always do, pad their record by beating up the UC-Whatever's of the world and pin everything else on Gonzaga. It's a laughable strategy for a team that wants to be taken seriously.

Normally I would just laugh at the ineptitude, but this crap hurts the conference and continues to weigh us down. The WCC won't change til everyone decides to nut up and start playing serious basketball. Unfortunately Gonzaga is the only one willing to do that.

Martin Centre Mad Man
01-10-2016, 01:11 PM
I found another tool that projects each team's likelihood of earning a bid and the most likely seed based on current RPI and the team's projected record over the remainder of the season. This one gives Gonzaga over an 80% chance of earning a bid.

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tournament/bracketology/by-conference/?anchor=west-coast

NumberCruncher
01-10-2016, 01:16 PM
I found another tool that projects each team's likelihood of earning a bid and the most likely seed based on current RPI and the team's projected record over the remainder of the season. This one gives Gonzaga over an 80% chance of earning a bid.

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tournament/bracketology/by-conference/?anchor=west-coast

Looks about right. 2-bid league.