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deathchina
11-26-2015, 11:17 AM
We are now sitting at 5 wins and 18 losses in our last 23 games against ranked teams dating back to 2009. (22 percent win rate)

Always amazes me how consistently we beat above average to poor teams and how mightily we struggle against good to great teams.

Zags11
11-26-2015, 11:18 AM
In b4 locked.

deathchina
11-26-2015, 11:22 AM
why would this get locked? It's an interesting topic. I don't think anyone can dispute that we are exceptional and taking care of business against inferior teams and struggle against our "equals". As a perennial top 25 team we should be closer to .500 against other ranked teams. Just curious if anyone has any interesting theories on why this is.

jazzdelmar
11-26-2015, 11:25 AM
Death, do tell. :)

Mike83814
11-26-2015, 12:23 PM
Couldn't agree more w this thread. Statistics don't lie, and we choke again v a top 25. I think part of it is the time of the year we play them. Typically it's during our OOC schedule, while the team hasn't quite *gelled* yet. Still, with the talent level we have on this team, that should be less of an issue.

jazzdelmar
11-26-2015, 12:34 PM
Couldn't agree more w this thread. Statistics don't lie, and we choke again v a top 25. I think part of it is the time of the year we play them. Typically it's during our OOC schedule, while the team hasn't quite *gelled* yet. Still, with the talent level we have on this team, that should be less of an issue.

Disagree. This is time of year when blue bloods have not gelled. Later on in the season I'm sure the GU record is even worse.

maynard g krebs
11-26-2015, 12:45 PM
As a perennial top 25 team we should be closer to .500 against other ranked teams. Just curious if anyone has any interesting theories on why this is.

It's important to keep in mind that GU has done what they've done without any top 25 recruiting classes until now, with the exception of Gray/Daye/Sacre, which was borderline. Sabonis/ Perkins is the new best class, along with Melson, who was outside the top 150 for good reason despite his upside.

GU has gotten to where they are by superior evaluation, development, and finding guys with a superior feel for the game.

Sometimes they get beaten by superior talent, and they've taken some tough, close losses in those 23 games.

It would be interesting to see how of those games have been in Spokane. My guess is not many.

It would also be interesting to see how many were against teams with superior composite recruiting rankings.

With the players coming in next year, things could be different.

A former GU player mentioned today that he thought ATM got the better end of the officiating in the last 5 minutes today. My brother, who is basically Zag-neutral and unbiased in this as a hardcore Duck fan, thought the same. Personally I have decided not to comment on the officiating, as it is fruitless and draws negative responses rather than objective thought, but some people find it to be a factor at times, like the end of the game at Arizona last year.

Inexperience at guard cost the Zags this particular game.

CDC84
11-26-2015, 12:53 PM
It would be interesting to find out what the average margin of defeat was in those losses.

Zags11
11-26-2015, 12:58 PM
I said in b4 locked because i know how these threads go.

Ekrub
11-26-2015, 01:00 PM
If the AP top 25 meant something this would be alarming. I'm much more concerned with our record vs end of year top 25 rpi teams.

ZagLawGrad
11-26-2015, 01:01 PM
If the AP top 25 meant something this would be alarming. I'm much more concerned with our record vs end of year top 25 rpi teams.

Copy that.

gonzagafan62
11-26-2015, 01:02 PM
Whole topic is garbage

deathchina
11-26-2015, 01:33 PM
A couple years ago I did just that with Ken Pom's rankings and Gonzaga had won 9 of the previous 39 games against end of year top 25 (by ken pom's ranking system).

I can't imagine those numbers have changed much in the last couple years. Someone is more than welcome to fill in the recent years, I'm off to eat turkey. These numbers are up until 2011.

"#8 San Diego St L 79-76 Home
#18 Illinois L 73-61 Semi-Home
#15 Notre Dame L 83-79 Away
#13 BYU L 89-67 Neutral
#23 Michigan St. L 75-71 Away
#9 Wisconsin W 74-61 Neutral
#1 Duke L 76-41 Neutral
#24 FSU W 67-60 Neutral
#4 Syracuse L 87-65 Neutral
#3 Uconn L 88-83 Semi-Home
#2 Memphis L 68-50 Home
#1 UNC L 98-77 Neutral
#22 Uconn W 85-82 Semi-Away
#10 WSU L 51-47 Home
#14 Tennessee L 82-72 Semi-Home
#2 Memphis L 81-73 Away
#20 Davidson L 82-76 Neutral
#1 UNC W 82-74 Neutral
#25 Butler L 79-71 Neutral
#21 Texas W 87-77 Neutral
#11 Duke L 61-54 Neutral
#9 Memphis L 78-77 Home
#16 Indiana L 70-57 Neutral
#4 Uconn L 65-63 Neutral
#13 UW L 99-95 Away
#9 Memphis L 83-72 Away
#3 UCLA L 73-71 Neutral
#2 Illinois L 89-72 Neutral
#15 UW W 99-87 Home
#19 Georgia Tech W 85-73 Neutral
#8 OSU W 78-75 Semi-Away
#6 Saint Joe's L 73-66 Neutral
#19 Maryland W 82-68 Semi-Away
#16 Stanford L 87-80 Semi-Away
#22 Nevada L 91-72 Neutral
#2 Kentucky L 80-72 Neutral
#18 Georgia L 95-83 Semi-Away
#20 Saint Joe's L 79-78 Home
#4 Arizona L 96-95 Neutral

By my count that's 9 wins out of 39 games (23% win percentage) against top teams the past 9 years. Granted, only 8 home/semi-home games but I still would have expected to see a win rate much closer to 40 percent in these contests. Is anyone else shocked by this number? "




Copy that.

CDC84
11-26-2015, 01:45 PM
I count 10 of those losses as being 5 points or less. Just a handful of blow outs.

I walk away from many of these games thinking....."man, if GU just had one more player."

roxdoc
11-26-2015, 02:03 PM
T A&M managed the game very well, especially in game changes, and especially at end - kept us off balance - masterful coaching job.

RenoZag
11-26-2015, 03:47 PM
From the 2014-15 media guide:

http://i1178.photobucket.com/albums/x375/RenoZag/GUvsTop25_zps4173ba3c.jpg (http://s1178.photobucket.com/user/RenoZag/media/GUvsTop25_zps4173ba3c.jpg.html)

Above reflects all-time record vs. top 25.

http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/gonz/sports/m-baskbl/auto_pdf/2014-15/misc_non_event/1415-record-book.pdf

Chart starts on Page 69 if you want the details

willandi
11-26-2015, 03:56 PM
I would have thought the record would have been better too, but how many of the losses were to teams ranked higher than the Zags? It's kind of like playing to your seeding in the tourney.