PDA

View Full Version : Ken Pomeroy's New Ratings are up, and the Zags start with a Nice Niche



ZagNative
10-25-2015, 03:49 PM
I like it! How about you? Link (http://kenpom.com/index.php)

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-becbvnEZ8vA/Vi1bL5I3KPI/AAAAAAAClc4/-civlEc2ETw/s720-Ic42/2015-10-25%252520pomeroy.jpg

ZagNative
10-25-2015, 04:10 PM
Pomeroy's game plan has us with just one loss, at SMU. What say you?

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-GxH10IIRRU8/Vi1gx5Dl7xI/AAAAAAACldI/paVVCbyO4Xk/s512-Ic42/2015-10-25%252520pomeroy%252520game%252520plan.jpg

Zag365
10-25-2015, 04:42 PM
I like how it looks on paper (and we certainly deserve to start out in the Top 15, I believe). KenPom rating/odds of winning is generally accurate. However, we need to see how well we and other teams actually play in November for me to agree that we are likely to be a 1 loss team by the end of the year. Of course, none of this takes into account the variables such as injuries but that's fair since KenPom is simply looking at the teams as they now exist on paper.

gonzagafan62
10-25-2015, 04:58 PM
We will beat SMU

jazzdelmar
10-25-2015, 05:07 PM
Fair. The w-l predictions are an exercise in futility, IMO.

MDABE80
10-25-2015, 06:07 PM
I KNOW this team can be undefeated. I'm not sureprised at a 1 loss season BUT I think we win at SMU.
This is the team we want. If we had Williams this year, I do think we'd be FF material.
This team is THAT talented.
Because of the history of path to undefeated status is riddled with things like injuries.meeting a hot team, our own failure to shoot well in a game...and of course the NCAA tournament, things usually go wrong. UK last year, Wichita St can attest to that. Let's enjoy this year.
It's hard for me to get my head around an undefeated season. It's just so spectacular to pull that off.
If you look at KenPom's predicted loss, it's only by 1 point.

Thanks to ZN for her spectacular work.:):)

ZagNative
10-25-2015, 06:38 PM
Thanks, Abe!

I can't believe how blase we all are about our #8 ranking in KenPom. The little school in Spokane starts the season among the ten best schools among 341 in the NCAA ....

Man, we are so spoiled!

Bogozags
10-25-2015, 06:57 PM
ZN THANK YOU!

WOW! I think it's fantastic that KENPOM feels that strongly about THIS team. Whether we have one, two or three losses is yet to be seen but thought KENPOM would have "THE" loss at BYU or Pepperdine.

A lot of things have to go right for us to finish that high in their ratings at the end of the regular season but I feel it's possible for us to run the table during the regular season. Heck, KW makes that three-ball at the end of regulation, then we wouldn't have played Duke in Houston BUT if a frog...

webspinnre
10-25-2015, 07:32 PM
Pomeroy's game plan has us with just one loss, at SMU. What say you?

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-GxH10IIRRU8/Vi1gx5Dl7xI/AAAAAAACldI/paVVCbyO4Xk/s512-Ic42/2015-10-25%252520pomeroy%252520game%252520plan.jpg

That's not quite accurate. What this says is that there is only one game we're not favored in. However, to accurately calculate our projected record, you would be better off adding all of the percentages together as decimals. Based on statistics, we're highly likely to lose at least one of Pitt, Arizona, at Pepperdine and at BYU.

amaronizag
10-25-2015, 08:41 PM
Has anyone looked at the KenPom offensive efficiency numbers for his projected top ten teams this year?? Ten points lower than last year. New rules??? Any thoughts??

TravelinZag
10-25-2015, 09:02 PM
Also, note the win-loss projections do not include the second and third rounds in the Atlantis tournament, because the opponents are yet to be determined. Three of the four teams on that side of the bracket, however, are projected top-50 teams, so serious tests. Obviously, I'd settle for the remainder of his projections in a heartbeat. Its possible the Zags could win all of those games, but a single loss would not be the end of the world. With a post-season ban, every game, especially at home, will have an extra incentive for the Mustangs.

RenoZag
10-25-2015, 09:15 PM
Pomeroy's game plan has us with just one loss, at SMU. What say you?



Beat Pitt

maynard g krebs
10-25-2015, 11:36 PM
That's not quite accurate. What this says is that there is only one game we're not favored in. However, to accurately calculate our projected record, you would be better off adding all of the percentages together as decimals. Based on statistics, we're highly likely to lose at least one of Pitt, Arizona, at Pepperdine and at BYU.

Correct. A little quick math in my head came out to a prediction of 4.3 losses by Ken

DixieZag
10-26-2015, 07:07 AM
Correct. A little quick math in my head came out to a prediction of 4.3 losses by Ken

That's what I think. Even if we're favored in every game. I'm at 3 losses, one early, one mid way (AZ or UCLA) and one conference loss. 3 Plus/Minus one seems right.

ZagsGoZags
10-26-2015, 07:43 AM
he has Iowa State at 19, below most other prognosticators (sp?)
he marches to his own drummer
I think he has us about right - he is thinking our guards, though untested here at GU (except for Kyle D), will be darn good

Kiddwell
10-26-2015, 07:52 AM
Thanks, Abe!

I can't believe how blase we all are about our #8 ranking in KenPom. The little school in Spokane starts the season among the ten best schools among 341 in the NCAA ....

Man, we are so spoiled!

No blase here. This's great. So great, in fact, that Kiddwell has this ridiculous notion that if we win at Paradise Island, we go undefeated in the regular season and earn another No. 1 Seed. (Someone slap me back to reality.)


:]


<OK, Arizona makes me a bit nervous. So Paradise Island and Arizona.>

mgadfly
10-26-2015, 10:23 AM
Pomeroy has our projected record at 25-4 (it's on the next line not shown in the image posted in this thread). I think that's about right.

webspinnre
10-26-2015, 10:28 AM
Web...predicted score and then the liklihood that score will happen??

Predicted score, and likelihood that we'll win. There's a correlation between the two in that the higher likelihood, usually the wider the margin, adjusted for offensive and defensive tempos and efficiency.

Reborn
10-26-2015, 12:40 PM
KenPom is whom I like best. When I spend time thinking about our season record, I usually feel that if we lose a game it will be @ SMU. Also winning @BYU is really tough. And so is @ San Francisco. But this is a very special Gonzaga team; so I agree with KenPom. One loss @ SMU. Somehow we'll pull the other two out. And as has been noted, winning at Pepperdine this year will be tougher than it's been for a long time. I don't think we have a true freshman playing this year; and that's going to help the Zags. Everyone has been with the team at least a year.

3XaZag
10-26-2015, 01:32 PM
If I read the chart correctly, this chart doesn't account for the last two opponents in the Atlantis tourney and those will be reasonably tough games.

Remember these odds accumulate. If we have a 89% chance of beating Washington, and a 75% to 80% chance of beating the next two opponents then the chance is about a third or greater that we won't be the Atlantis champs. I am not trying to be a negative Nellie, but Kenpom's realistic accumulation of 4.3 losses (as noted by webspinnre and Maynard above) is exacerbated by those other two Atlantis games...it is not unlikely that we will be more like 5, maybe even 6 losses for the season, which will still be a fabulous achievement given the schedule. And Reborn, never change your enthusiasm, its one of the reasons I come to the board so often. You get palpable joy from the ZAGs and I love it, but you disagree with KenPom significantly if you think only one loss.

Coach Crazy
10-26-2015, 04:58 PM
Thanks, Abe!

I can't believe how blase we all are about our #8 ranking in KenPom. The little school in Spokane starts the season among the ten best schools among 341 in the NCAA ....

Man, we are so spoiled!

It's not "the little school in Spokane", anymore. Those days are over. We've all witness a turning of a corner (not "THE" corner, but a significant one). We're very fortunate to be fans of this team, but we should start expecting more of these years, regularly.

maynard g krebs
10-27-2015, 12:13 AM
If we have a 89% chance of beating Washington, and a 75% to 80% chance of beating the next two opponents then the chance is about a third or greater that we won't be the Atlantis champs.

Using round numbers for simplicity, if odds of beating the 3 opponents are 90, 80, and 75% respectively, odds of winning the tourney are .9 X .8 X .75, which comes out to .54, or 54%.

Reborn
10-27-2015, 06:57 AM
If I read the chart correctly, this chart doesn't account for the last two opponents in the Atlantis tourney and those will be reasonably tough games.

Remember these odds accumulate. If we have a 89% chance of beating Washington, and a 75% to 80% chance of beating the next two opponents then the chance is about a third or greater that we won't be the Atlantis champs. I am not trying to be a negative Nellie, but Kenpom's realistic accumulation of 4.3 losses (as noted by webspinnre and Maynard above) is exacerbated by those other two Atlantis games...it is not unlikely that we will be more like 5, maybe even 6 losses for the season, which will still be a fabulous achievement given the schedule. And Reborn, never change your enthusiasm, its one of the reasons I come to the board so often. You get palpable joy from the ZAGs and I love it, but you disagree with KenPom significantly if you think only one loss.

Thanks for the insight. You are right. Sometimes I do disagree with KenPom, and especially if he predicts that our Zags will lose. hahahaha I'm sticking with one loss. Go Zags!!! And I'm not drinking Kool Aid either right now. This team is THIS good. Much like Kentucky was last year. We have the best front court in basketball, imo.

ZagaZags
10-27-2015, 08:40 PM
http://media.komonews.com/images/091203_lorenzo_romar.jpg

If Ken Pomeroy is right, miserable season ahead for UW menís basketball team.


Expectations are historically low for the Washington menís basketball team, which is picked to finish 11th by the media in the Pac-12 preseason poll.

As alarming as that prediction might appear, Ken Pomeroy projects an even gloomier forecast for the Huskies.

Read the rest at link.

http://www.seattletimes.com/sports/uw-husky-basketball/if-ken-pomeroy-is-right-miserable-season-ahead-for-uw-mens-basketball-team/?utm_content=bufferb1216&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=owned_buffer_sports

mgadfly
10-28-2015, 08:31 AM
The article is really misleading about what Pomeroy is projecting for the Huskies. Almost like Allen was intentionally poking the Huskies fans in the eye with twisted data.

He claims they are projected to have the worst season in however many years and go 2-16 in conference. However, KP projects them to do EXACTLY as they did last year and go 5-13. Further, KP explained in a blog post announcing the rankings:


Preseason ratings were posted over the weekend. Here’s a reminder as to what goes into them…

The components and weighting is based on a regression of the past nine seasons. The system is, by 2015 standards, pretty simple. It doesn’t try to project playing time for individual players. It doesn’t know about transfers, and all but 5-star recruits are virtually ignored. If you think your favorite team is ranked too low, the reason is probably that there are really good transfers or recruits arriving.

The Huskies are in that exact situation bringing in a very good recruiting class but without your top ten type players (only Kentucky and sometimes Duke seem to be able to do that).

So based on how Pomeroy's projection and admission that his system may undervalue teams in the Huskies situation, I'd say he wouldn't be surprised if they played .500 ball this year.

maynard g krebs
10-28-2015, 10:41 AM
The article is really misleading about what Pomeroy is projecting for the Huskies. Almost like Allen was intentionally poking the Huskies fans in the eye with twisted data.

He claims they are projected to have the worst season in however many years and go 2-16 in conference. However, KP projects them to do EXACTLY as they did last year and go 5-13.

I don't think it's intentional. Percy's a total Husky homer. This is the reverse of the Zags being favored in all but one game, but their aggregate prediction is 4 losses; Huskies are the underdog in most games, but if you add up their % chance of winning each game, it rounds out to 5 wins rather than 2.