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View Full Version : Demise of the Mid Range Jumper



scott257
03-31-2015, 01:26 PM
I am curious and it may just be my perception, but wouldn't we have benefited from being able to take, and make more mid-range jumpers? I am not just thinking about the Duke game, but certainly it is what started me wondering. I don't track stats, and haven't seen a shot chart for our team, but other than Wiltjer, did we have anyone else that consistently looked for, and made a majority of shots from mid-range? I know that others have commented on the need for Sabonis to improve this aspect of his game. Wouldn't it also have been a benefit for our offense if Pangos and Bell had incorporated the mid-range into their game on a more frequent occurrence? With respect to the Duke game, when those threes were not falling, I had really thought that might have helped. Of course, with respect to many of my thoughts on basketball, I may just be out to lunch and my perception or logic is flawed. Does anyone more knowledgeable have any insight into this?

gonzagafan62
03-31-2015, 01:30 PM
I recall seeing Wesley try a bunch this season, but when you are so good at the close range shot, and close to 40% from three, why do we need the midrange shot? I've heard (and maybe this is my perception (who knows?) but I have heard the mid range jumper is less accurate than the three ball.

I don't see it as perception, other than something to maybe explore, but shooting over 50% all year, means you are doing something right, right?

thegloriousgoateeofKP
03-31-2015, 05:19 PM
To me, it's very hard to justify taking a mid-range jumper. The Houston Rockets, for example, take ONLY layups/shots in the pain and 3's. I think that maximizes your expected point value over the course of a game.

Also, corner 3's are the best, most efficient shots in the game. Would like to see much more of those from our guys next year

DixieZag
03-31-2015, 05:28 PM
To me, it's very hard to justify taking a mid-range jumper. The Houston Rockets, for example, take ONLY layups/shots in the pain and 3's. I think that maximizes your expected point value over the course of a game.

Also, corner 3's are the best, most efficient shots in the game. Would like to see much more of those from our guys next year

I am guessing but I think this might be part of it. It seems like a mid-range jumper, like Hawes' game, used to be like an entrance level qualification for college ball, and especially the NBA. But, it seems like the perception is that it is not worth attempting the jump shot from 4 feet inside the arc. The percentage might be similar, and one is awarded on less point.

The other possible aspect might just be that the kids don't practice that distance when out just shooting around. It seems to me they practice driving and cutting, or the point shooting, but not mid-range jumpers.

It will be interesting to hear what the basketball people here think.

seacatfan
03-31-2015, 07:05 PM
I think the mid range game is still a valuable asset in basketball, underutilized, most players aren't good at it. Most defenses either choose to emphasize packing the lane and making it difficult to score inside, or chase shooters off the 3 point line. If you can drive, get a defender moving, then stop and pop from 12 or 15 feet, why not? If you hit it consistently, it could be better than trying to force the ball inside where there are lots of bodies, lots of hands slapping at the ball, lots of contact, maybe not many whistles, and not necessarily high percentage shots to be had.

amaronizag
03-31-2015, 09:53 PM
True that Haws was a master of the mid-rage jumper. However see Pomeroy and others stats on this, it's the biggest possession ender in basketball.

mgadfly
03-31-2015, 10:38 PM
There is no good reason for a mid-range jumper (unless the clock is about to expire). If you are open you should step back and take a three or attack the hoop and increase your percentage of making the shot and drawing fouls (getting to the free throw line). What we did wrong this season was not attack from the high post (off the bounce) much until later in the season. Our free throw rate (drawing fouls on the opposition) was horrible. The coaches clearly emphasized attacking and both Shem and Sabonis began dribbling in closer and forcing the action later in the season.

I know it is hard on my generation of hoopers who were told fairy tales about how the mid-range jumper and how it spaced the floor and forced defenders into difficult decisions, but all the math points the other direction. Taking a shot with that low of % that is only worth 2 points and doesn't space the floor as well as a 3 or put pressure on the defense like driving at the hoop is statistically a really, really bad idea. I can't remember what commentator was calling one of our games, but he said he took 1 mid range shot his entire senior season of college basketball.

MDABE80
03-31-2015, 11:06 PM
Define mid range...........6-12 ft or??

CdAZagFan
03-31-2015, 11:06 PM
In my opinion if Karno and Sabonis could develop a mid-range shot, it would open up a huge hole for others and really enhance their games.

Birddog
04-01-2015, 03:41 AM
Define mid range...........6-12 ft or??

IMO any shot outside the paint on the sides and over about 8' back from the baseline in the middle is midrange out to the 3 pt line. So yeah, 6' to 12' or more.

Hoopaholic
04-01-2015, 06:16 AM
In my opinion if Karno and Sabonis could develop a mid-range shot, it would open up a huge hole for others and really enhance their games.
number one area for them to focus on IMO

adoptedzag
04-01-2015, 07:27 AM
My wife and I had a hearty discussion about this very topic. It actually got very heated, because she's "old school" and likes the game of guys like Hawes. I'm very "numbers driven" and the analytics say its the worst shot in basketball. That is to say, you should be able to shoot it, but it should be a plan D, after plan A, B and C have all been exhausted.

WallaWallaZag
04-01-2015, 07:31 AM
In my opinion if Karno and Sabonis could develop a mid-range shot, it would open up a huge hole for others and really enhance their games.

mid-range shot is statistically the worst shot in basketball...but a wide-open free throw jumper is much better than a highly contested drive or three...which is where the above quote comes into play...teams aren't guarding either of them outside of 5 feet.

DixieZag
04-01-2015, 08:54 AM
the more I think about it, more I think part of it is it just doesn't get practiced, no muscle memory. When was the last time you saw guys shooting jumpers 4-5 inside the arc in practice/warm-up?

seacatfan
04-01-2015, 10:50 AM
I'm not an analytics guys, I'm sure people much smarter than me have good reason to think the mid range shot is not a quality shot. But if you can hit it consistently it counts for 2 points, yes? I can't count how many missed contested layups I've seen in games I've watched. Sometimes 4 or 5 on one possession. I'll take an open 15 footer all day long. Haws has been mentioned couple times. Seems like Rip Hamilton was a master of the mid range game as well, he had an excellent NBA career. Maybe part of why the analytics indicate mid range shots are a poor option is because so few players are good at hitting those shots. Also seems like forcing the ball into the lane and drawing a charge is just as much of a possession ender as a medium range jump shot. Seen that countless times too.

mgadfly
04-01-2015, 11:08 AM
I'm not an analytics guys, I'm sure people much smarter than me have good reason to think the mid range shot is not a quality shot. But if you can hit it consistently it counts for 2 points, yes? I can't count how many missed contested layups I've seen in games I've watched. Sometimes 4 or 5 on one possession. I'll take an open 15 footer all day long. Haws has been mentioned couple times. Seems like Rip Hamilton was a master of the mid range game as well, he had an excellent NBA career. Maybe part of why the analytics indicate mid range shots are a poor option is because so few players are good at hitting those shots. Also seems like forcing the ball into the lane and drawing a charge is just as much of a possession ender as a medium range jump shot. Seen that countless times too.

Haws shot 37.1% from three point range. Not great.
Haws shot 51.9% from two point range, including higher percentage layups. Pretty good.

.371 * 3 (points) = 1.113 points per 3 pt attempt
.519 * 2 (points) = 1.038 points per 2 pt attempt

The only thing that saves the 2 point attempt at all is that shots within 6 feet tend to draw a disproportionately large number of fouls while shots beyond six feet tend to draw the same amount of fouls as a 3 point attempt.

So if you want to throw points away, have Haws take that mid-range jumper. You could also just have him shoot threes or attack the hoop and every now and then chuck a ball out of bounds intentionally to get the same lower efficiency offense effect (the "Carlino" effect).

I'm not against the mid range jumper as much as I'm claiming to be, but I'd never attempt to get a guy a mid range shot or have someone hunting that shot intentionally. If it's the best shot you can get in 35 seconds, so be it, but really any other shot would be better.

adoptedzag
04-01-2015, 11:28 AM
http://www.krossover.com/blog/2012/10/death-of-the-mid-range-jumper-statistically-speaking/

seacatfan
04-01-2015, 12:36 PM
Great. So all of the grumblings about modern bball players can't do anything other than dunk or chuck 3's is statistically true and being encouraged by coaches at all levels? Ugh. Taking a bunch of 3's is fools gold. If you can hit 35-40% or higher it's okay, but what about the games where a team goes something like 6-25 on 3's (seen it plenty of times, so has everyone else that watches hoops) and you have nothing else to your offensive game plan? You have literally no chance to win, or even be remotely competitive (unless the other team is doing the exact same thing and is equally unsuccessful). Maybe the mid range game is dying but I think over reliance on 3 point shooting is gonna kill the game.

kitzbuel
04-01-2015, 03:12 PM
I recall seeing Wesley try a bunch this season, but when you are so good at the close range shot, and close to 40% from three, why do we need the midrange shot? I've heard (and maybe this is my perception (who knows?) but I have heard the mid range jumper is less accurate than the three ball.

I don't see it as perception, other than something to maybe explore, but shooting over 50% all year, means you are doing something right, right?

I think mid-range shots percentage is pretty close to three-point range percentage. Three pointer payoff is bigger so it makes sense to just step back for the three or work for the high percentage inside shot.

That being said, Rip Hamilton was probably my favorite NBA player because he was king of the mid-range jumper. It was a great weapon for him.

kitzbuel
04-01-2015, 03:16 PM
I'm not an analytics guys, I'm sure people much smarter than me have good reason to think the mid range shot is not a quality shot. But if you can hit it consistently it counts for 2 points, yes? I can't count how many missed contested layups I've seen in games I've watched. Sometimes 4 or 5 on one possession. I'll take an open 15 footer all day long. Haws has been mentioned couple times. Seems like Rip Hamilton was a master of the mid range game as well, he had an excellent NBA career. Maybe part of why the analytics indicate mid range shots are a poor option is because so few players are good at hitting those shots. Also seems like forcing the ball into the lane and drawing a charge is just as much of a possession ender as a medium range jump shot. Seen that countless times too.

If you attempt 10 two pointers at 50% you score 10 points.

If you attempt 10 three pointers at 38% you score 11.4 points.

You have to drop to 33% from three-point range to make it less worthwhile than 50% two-point shooting.

kitzbuel
04-01-2015, 03:19 PM
Haws shot 37.1% from three point range. Not great.
Haws shot 51.9% from two point range, including higher percentage layups. Pretty good.

.371 * 3 (points) = 1.113 points per 3 pt attempt
.519 * 2 (points) = 1.038 points per 2 pt attempt

The only thing that saves the 2 point attempt at all is that shots within 6 feet tend to draw a disproportionately large number of fouls while shots beyond six feet tend to draw the same amount of fouls as a 3 point attempt.

So if you want to throw points away, have Haws take that mid-range jumper. You could also just have him shoot threes or attack the hoop and every now and then chuck a ball out of bounds intentionally to get the same lower efficiency offense effect (the "Carlino" effect).

I'm not against the mid range jumper as much as I'm claiming to be, but I'd never attempt to get a guy a mid range shot or have someone hunting that shot intentionally. If it's the best shot you can get in 35 seconds, so be it, but really any other shot would be better.

Just saw your post mgadfly! Guess I need to read through the whole thread!