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View Full Version : Opening Line Duke -2.5



IdahoTJR
03-28-2015, 08:11 AM
For only the second time this season the Zags are a betting underdog.

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-basketball/odds/las-vegas/

ZagsGoZags
03-28-2015, 08:56 AM
and not by much!
a week ago or ten days ago, this would have been a bigger margin than 2.5

DixieZag
03-28-2015, 08:58 AM
Sounds about right to me.

ZenZag
03-28-2015, 09:37 AM
Somehow it feels good to be going into a game as the underdog again.

RenoZag
03-28-2015, 09:59 AM
Duke's "Back Door" Cover in the Utah game was discussed in this morning's Charlotte Observer:

http://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/business/national-business/article16570394.html


Think that last free throw was meaningless for Duke as it beat Utah in the Sweet 16? Thousands of gamblers in Las Vegas disagree.

The free throw allowed the top-seeded Blue Devils to cover a 5-point spread on Friday night, topping the Utes by 6 at 63-57 and flipping wagers on a game many thought was already over.

Luckily for gamblers, it appears most were backing Duke, laying 5 points at Las Vegas sports books operated by Caesars Entertainment, MGM Resorts International and the Wynn Las Vegas.

It's not immediately clear how much money swung on the free throw, but casinos appeared to be on the losing end. According to wager reports compiled by Pregame.com, nearly three-fourths of spread bettors were backing Duke on Friday night, with nearly 108,000 wagers on the game.

RenoZag
03-28-2015, 10:04 AM
Duke vs Gonzaga will be Blue Devils 17th game between pair of top-2 seeds, breaking tie with North Carolina for most in NCAA Tourney history


Duke's Official Basketball Web site:

http://www.dukeblueplanet.com/

ZagsGoZags
03-29-2015, 10:18 AM
i wonder if the odds are still -2.5 ? two days later

Kong-Kool-Aid
03-29-2015, 10:20 AM
Nope, moved to Duke -2.

Public is on Duke.

jake
03-29-2015, 10:43 AM
Nope, moved to Duke -2.

Public is on Duke.

The line moving to 2 would show more action on Gonzaga not Duke.

Most of the off-shore books look to be -2 but shaded towards 1.5.

KStyles
03-29-2015, 11:09 AM
The line moving to 2 would show more action on Gonzaga not Duke.

Most of the off-shore books look to be -2 but shaded towards 1.5.

Reverse Line Movement. Sharp money on GU, public is on Duke.

http://i.imgur.com/VugLBgG.png

caduceus
03-29-2015, 11:16 AM
FiveThirtyEight: How To Tell If A March Madness Underdog Is Going To Win (http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-to-tell-if-a-march-madness-underdog-is-going-to-win/)



I analyzed play-by-play data from every NCAA tournament since 2004, which is the earliest that second-by-second scoring data is readily available. I considered all games played by teams with different seeds, leaving me with about 700 games to analyze. In the analysis, I estimated the probability that a lower-seeded team (i.e., the better team, according to the selection committee) wins the game, depending on the score and the time remaining.

At the opening tipoff, the underdog has a 29 percent chance of winning the game. But if the game is tied or the underdog is ahead with five minutes remaining in the first half, the probability of an upset is higher than 50 percent.

https://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2015/03/pettigrew-madness-upsets-21.png?w=575

The probability that an average underdog with a two-possession lead (light green) will win crosses the 50 percent threshold with about five minutes left in the first half. And an underdog who leads by more than 7 points (dark green) perhaps shouldn’t be considered an underdog at all. Its odds of completing the upset are more than 50 percent very early in the first half.

In smaller potential upsets (within 5 seed lines), an underdog with at least a 4-point lead (light and dark green) at nearly any point in the game has a better chance of winning than losing. The underdog wins about 40 percent of one-possession games (gray), regardless of the time remaining.

jake
03-29-2015, 11:22 AM
Reverse Line Movement. Sharp money on GU, public is on Duke.

http://i.imgur.com/VugLBgG.png

Got it. I see what he/you are saying now. I hadn't checked the % of bets. Interesting and it would show public on Duke sharp money on GU.

Dirt McGirt
03-29-2015, 11:34 AM
Zags by 6. No way they lose to a team with a coach that doesn't even know how to pronounce his own name. Shashefsky? Stop it already.

T-bonedazag
03-29-2015, 11:48 AM
Zags +1.5 at some local books here in Vegas
+120 ML

Go Zags!

Kong-Kool-Aid
03-29-2015, 12:06 PM
Got it. I see what he/you are saying now. I hadn't checked the % of bets. Interesting and it would show public on Duke sharp money on GU.

Sorry, I should have clarified.

Thanks KStyles.