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View Full Version : John Gasaway on the Basketball Gods vs. Gonzaga



Zags_Fanatic
02-09-2015, 09:10 PM
Gasaway has been putting up an interesting advanced metrics rundown every Tuesday, today's was a particularly interesting read:


That 2013 Gonzaga team was amazing (a continuing series)

West Coast W-L Pace PPP Opp. PPP EM
1. Gonzaga 12-0 64.0 1.21 0.96 +0.25
2. BYU 8-5 69.8 1.17 1.04 +0.13
3. Saint Mary's 10-2 60.7 1.12 1.00 +0.12
4. Pepperdine 8-5 62.4 1.02 1.01 +0.01
5. San Diego 6-7 63.2 0.97 0.98 -0.01
6. Portland 5-7 65.6 1.06 1.09 -0.03
7. San Francisco 3-10 65.1 1.04 1.14 -0.10
8. Loyola Marymount 4-9 60.0 1.07 1.17 -0.10
9. Pacific 2-10 60.6 1.00 1.14 -0.14
10. Santa Clara 5-8 59.9 0.99 1.14 -0.15

AVG. 63.1 1.07

The best information I can pull together suggests that Gonzaga two years ago (+0.30) was as good as the team you see in Spokane today, meaning “national championship-good.” If one accepts this premise, then the sequence that subsequently unfurled is quite possibly the best evidence we have that the hoops gods do have a sense of humor:

1. Gonzaga played like an elderly frog on sedatives against Southern in the round of 64 and very nearly supplied history’s first 16-over-1 upset before escaping 64-58.
2. In the round of 32 the Bulldogs were paired with No. 9 seed Wichita State, a team that on paper was not as strong as the group of Shockers that was upset by VCU in the round of 64 the previous year.
3. The nominally not-as-strong-as-before Shockers proceeded to make more threes than any WSU team had in 10 years (and more than any WSU team has since), on their way to the Final Four.
4. In 2014 Wichita State, undefeated and seeded on the top line, fell in the round of 32 by two points to a Final-Four-bound Kentucky team that shot 44 percent from beyond the arc after ranking No. 11 in SEC play in three-point accuracy.

Personally I can envision top-seeded Gonzaga reaching the 2015 Sweet 16 with ease, and it will be one of those things where all the following week we kind of wonder what the big deal was about saying they couldn’t possibly do it. (Think Bo Ryan and Wisconsin making the 2014 Final Four.) But maybe the hoops gods have something else planned. They’re certainly on a roll.

This doesn't format well in a post, check the full article here if interested: http://johngasaway.com/2015/02/10/tuesday-truths-on-the-shoulders-of-giants-edition/

ZagsGoZags
02-10-2015, 02:25 AM
interesting read, thanks for posting it

Kiddwell
02-10-2015, 07:35 AM
Regarding GU winning by just six versus a 16 seed, GU was the fourth No. 1 Seed that year. Kansas was the third. Theoretically, then, Kansas would've been given an easier 16 seed. Yet Kansas beat their 16 by only seven. So, John Gasaway, lay off the Zags! (And stop gasiating the atmosphere, you gas-venting gashead!) :argh:


:[


<...Kiddwell's faithful dog, Towzer, is now licking Kiddwell's face, calming The Kiddsters down...>

"On top of that, gasmeister, Gary Bell hurt himself in that game!"
"Arf, arf!"*

<*Doggie for "Calm, My Master! Calm!">

Zag_Dad
02-10-2015, 07:56 AM
Such a painful memory (the loss to WSU).... I think the main difference between the 2013 team and this year's team is that we are so much deeper this year. When Bell got injured in 2013, WSU went on their run and came back to beat us. There is no doubt in my mind that GU would have won that game (and potentially a couple more in the tournament) had Bell not been injured.

This year, we have the arsenal to withstand an injury like that (God forbid). We got a glimpse of what McClellan offers off the bench as a high energy defender and I like what I see.

Of course March is all about match ups and who is hot... hoping for favorable matchups and a HOT Gonzaga team.

GO ZAGS

gonzagafan62
02-10-2015, 08:32 AM
Such a painful memory (the loss to WSU).... I think the main difference between the 2013 team and this year's team is that we are so much deeper this year. When Bell got injured in 2013, WSU went on their run and came back to beat us. There is no doubt in my mind that GU would have won that game (and potentially a couple more in the tournament) had Bell not been injured.

This year, we have the arsenal to withstand an injury like that (God forbid). We got a glimpse of what McClellan offers off the bench as a high energy defender and I like what I see.

Of course March is all about match ups and who is hot... hoping for favorable matchups and a HOT Gonzaga team.

GO ZAGS

While Gonzaga keeps winning, it seems as though we have been slumping lately. (Particularly on defense, offense has been red hot) Of course tough road games on the WCC would effect this mantra of thought. I am not one to criticize the way of winning (I just like winning) and the team has been substantial at that and we have the most wins in the country (24)

What keeps me happy is that we have such a great offense and a defense that is built to win. Plenty of time to lock down the defense going into the WCC tournament. Gotta get started.

Go Zags!

Zags11
02-10-2015, 08:32 AM
We will make a final 4 and Gonzaga will be the "darling" to root for when we make it past e8.

WallaWallaZag
02-10-2015, 08:41 AM
We will make a final 4 and Gonzaga will be the "darling" to root for when we make it past e8.

not so sure about that...a lot of bcs fans can't stand the zags and all the attention gonzaga gets...

gonzagafan62
02-10-2015, 08:48 AM
not so sure about that...a lot of bcs fans can't stand the zags and all the attention gonzaga gets...

They say that. But if it really ame down to gonzaga duke Kentucky Indiana and Kansas who do u think the general public woul be rooting for? My money is on gonzaga

DixieZag
02-10-2015, 10:38 AM
While Gonzaga keeps winning, it seems as though we have been slumping lately. (Particularly on defense, offense has been red hot) Of course tough road games on the WCC would effect this mantra of thought. I am not one to criticize the way of winning (I just like winning) and the team has been substantial at that and we have the most wins in the country (24)

What keeps me happy is that we have such a great offense and a defense that is built to win. Plenty of time to lock down the defense going into the WCC tournament. Gotta get started.

Go Zags!

I sorta' disagree. Though it is hard to see, given the records and RPI of SCU and USF, I see our team winning games that both, would have been lost in most years and games that were freaky tough despite decent defense.

If we consider the mental pressure of playing in two closets that have been houses of horrors over the last few years, intensified by the fact that the home teams hit shots that were stupid difficult (not open looks) which just kept going in, inexplicably, it took a legitimately mentally tough and physically talented team to get the wins. Defense won the game against SCU. Mac came in and shut down a guy knocking down shots that had no right going in, allowing us to overcome a million things going wrong by basically not missing - doesn't sound like a team playing "down."

Two nights later, a rather tired Zag team played another game where ridiculous shots went in and the opponent actually played extremely tough defense, and yet they just could not overcome the depth of talent and toughness we had.

I'm plenty ready to call our team out when not playing well (BYU), but I just didn't see it this last weekend. I saw a team that actually needed to be great to get through it unscathed.

gonzagafan62
02-10-2015, 10:50 AM
I sorta' disagree. Though it is hard to see, given the records and RPI of SCU and USF, I see our team winning games that both, would have been lost in most years and games that were freaky tough despite decent defense.

If we consider the mental pressure of playing in two closets that have been houses of horrors over the last few years, intensified by the fact that the home teams hit shots that were stupid difficult (not open looks) which just kept going in, inexplicably, it took a legitimately mentally tough and physically talented team to get the wins. Defense won the game against SCU. Mac came in and shut down a guy knocking down shots that had no right going in, allowing us to overcome a million things going wrong by basically not missing - doesn't sound like a team playing "down."

Two nights later, a rather tired Zag team played another game where ridiculous shots went in and the opponent actually played extremely tough defense, and yet they just could not overcome the depth of talent and toughness we had.

I'm plenty ready to call our team out when not playing well (BYU), but I just didn't see it this last weekend. I saw a team that actually needed to be great to get through it unscathed.

While I agree somewhat, we gave San Francisco tons of open looks especially to Tollifsen (Sp?) ... and plenty other Dons. We did not play well defensively. yes Emac has really come in and changed both games with his defense, energy and experience, but we have got to lock down more on the perimeter. I don't think the low block defense has been bad at all. . . Just seemed like we played terribly defensively especially Saturday. So many open looks, and nobody was either rotating, or fixing. It is what it is, and I am not really complaining, because I know this team will be ready for the dance, just making an observation.