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View Full Version : Joe Lunardi: "Zags win out, and everyone else wins out, Gonzaga is a #1 seed"



gonzagafan62
01-22-2015, 11:34 AM
Let me clarify the title for a brief second. Joe Lunardi was asked if Wisconsin, Villanova and others right behind the Zags won out, and Gonzaga also won out, Lunardi says there is no chance of any of them passing the Zags.

See the full interview here: http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=12210936&ex_cid=espnapi_public

Kiddwell
01-22-2015, 11:42 AM
Joe doesn't think the Zags will go undefeated the rest of the way, interesting. Kiddwell thinks they will.



:]

DixieZag
01-22-2015, 11:48 AM
I am not yet convinced we're likely to go undefeated the rest of the way, but if we do, this makes total sense.

My question that I think is just as interesting is if we lose one game. Will that cause us to tumble down to 3? 4? Hope not. Cheer for losses for other teams.

gonzagafan62
01-22-2015, 12:14 PM
I am not yet convinced we're likely to go undefeated the rest of the way, but if we do, this makes total sense.

My question that I think is just as interesting is if we lose one game. Will that cause us to tumble down to 3? 4? Hope not. Cheer for losses for other teams.

Good question. I think if the loss is not to either SMC or BYU, I think it dramatically effects the seed, sadly. I am fearful of losing any games now. If we are wanting to go to the Final Four as a #1 seed, we essentially have to go 19-0 the rest of the way. That's just plum crazy talk right there, eh?

Unless SMU and Georgia, and St. John's keep winning, its going to be hard to retain a high seed while losing one game. St. John's has a big game against Duke Sunday. That could help a lot. Of course Coach K is going for win # 1K, so the odds of that happening are slim to none.

EDIT: I really believe people are sleeping on the Memphis game.

zagfan24
01-22-2015, 01:20 PM
Out of curiosity, I looked at how many ranked opponents the teams around us have scheduled for the remainder of the regular season. Obviously, this excludes conf tournament which can add a few more:

1 Kentucky: 0
2 Virginia: 4
3 Gonzaga: 0
4 Villanova: 1
5 Duke: 5
6 Wisconsin: 3
7 Arizona: 1
8 Notre Dame: 3

Aside from the ACC teams (some of which are against one another), not many other "big win" opportunities ahead for other teams.

Zagger
01-22-2015, 01:31 PM
Assuming the Zags do win out and are a #1 seed .... what if the only WCC losses St. Mary's has are to the Zags? What seed might they be awarded?

ZagaZags
01-22-2015, 01:37 PM
Assuming the Zags do win out and are a #1 seed .... what if the only WCC losses St. Mary's has are to the Zags? What seed might they be awarded?

NIT

gonzagafan62
01-22-2015, 01:37 PM
Assuming the Zags do win out and are a #1 seed .... what if the only WCC losses St. Mary's has are to the Zags? What seed might they be awarded?

They might be a struggle just to get in the first four, honestly. Although I am not an expert. If they can't offset a loss to Northern Arizona with a win against the Zags, they might be NIT bound.

zagfan24
01-22-2015, 01:40 PM
Assuming the Zags do win out and are a #1 seed .... what if the only WCC losses St. Mary's has are to the Zags? What seed might they be awarded?

I don't see the Gaels getting in without beating GU at least once. Other top 100 RPI wins...Northeastern and BYU...not going to cut it, most likely.

Zagdawg
01-22-2015, 01:48 PM
St Marys forecast RPI 49-60, SOS 108 and projected to be 21-7 or 20-8 (53% chance)

0-2 top 25 RPI
1-1 top 25-50 RPI
1-2 51-100 RPI
18-3 against 100+ (7-1 are 200+ RPI opponents)

That loss to 219 RPI Northern Arizona at home would be classified as a "bad loss"

I don't know that they get in with that record--depends on what the rest of the field looks like.

Zagger
01-22-2015, 02:19 PM
NIT

I guess they're NIT-pickers then! http://www.fowlplaces.com/zags/bulldogwink.png

mgadfly
01-22-2015, 02:25 PM
Assuming the Zags do win out and are a #1 seed .... what if the only WCC losses St. Mary's has are to the Zags? What seed might they be awarded?

They'd finish 2nd in the WCC with a 23-6 record. In this scenario does St. Mary's pull a St. Mary's and schedule a 30th game after the end of our conference tournament but before selection Sunday to try and bolster their strength of schedule and tournament resume? And how tough do they play the Zags in that nationally televised WCC championship game?

I'd guess they get in with a 12 or 13 seed. They'd most likely have an RPI around 40 which would probably get them in. Probably. Or maybe. Yeah, probably.

Gonzdb8
01-22-2015, 02:54 PM
NIT

I kinda hope this is true. RB has learned to game the system and maintain a respectable RPI while literally playing nobody of merit. That approach should not be rewarded. Perhaps another trip to the NIT might convince him to finally replace a few of the cupcakes with some decent competition.

RenoZag
01-22-2015, 03:25 PM
Beat the Gaels.

DixieZag
01-22-2015, 05:15 PM
I kinda hope this is true. RB has learned to game the system and maintain a respectable RPI while literally playing nobody of merit. That approach should not be rewarded. Perhaps another trip to the NIT might convince him to finally replace a few of the cupcakes with some decent competition.

That, is definitely true. I think if they only lose to the Zags until conference tournament, and then make the conference final, I think they're in. (though no expert). That's just what it feels like. It would be hard to be the 7th ranked conference and not get two in. They lost the "for sure" ticket when giving up the St. John's lead.

RenoZag
01-26-2015, 06:19 PM
For the record, I've always liked St. John's and spent a lot of friendly time with Steve Lavin during his ESPN days. But it was clear to me Sunday as Duke sprinted past the Red Storm that his team is a tease. And that Selection Sunday isn't going to end well for the Johnnies.


St. John's has seemingly done everything right to get back to the NCAA tournament. The Red Storm scheduled well, were decent in nonconference play and are headed to an acceptable numerical profile (current 51/13/43 RPI/SOS/BPI combo).

But here's the rub: The Johnnies aren't going to win enough games (or, more precisely, enough of the right games). Forget about being on the wrong side of history Sunday. If the Red Storm had held on against Duke, as they should have, the remainder of their season is entirely different. Instead, St. John's will have to bank on flipping a 2-4 Big East record.

The Johnnies have had four huge opportunities at home -- Gonzaga, Butler, Villanova and Duke -- and came up empty each time. Additional chances remain, but do you trust this team to win more than it loses at Butler (away), Georgetown (twice) and at Villanova? That's what it's going to take for the Red Storm at this point, and I'm not buying.

St. John's is the first team out today for the same reason it would miss the NCAA field in March: a losing conference record and a 2-5 mark against top-50 opponents. Our last team in, Kansas State, is 5-2 in a better league and 4-4 against the top 50. The Red Storm would win the so-called "eye test," but K-State has won more meaningful games.

So for everyone who tweeted me today that Duke was a "good loss," I'll say only that too many of them put your team in the NIT.

Lunardi's " S" Curve has the Zags on the top line as the third # 1 seed, behind KY, UVA, and just ahead of Duke.

http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/12230846/latest-update-joe-lunardi-bracket-math-college-basketball

Beat the Pilots !

caduceus
01-26-2015, 06:35 PM
http://i.imgur.com/FJPONHa.jpg

Hooray4Daye&Gray
01-27-2015, 10:09 AM
This statement from Joe Lunardi seems hard to trust.

Kentucky is clearly headed for a 1 seed.

With 5 teams in the top 15, Virginia and Duke are both racking up monster wins. Virginia is undefeated so clearly in the driver's seat for a 1 seed - let's say they lose at home to Duke this week but then win out, including winning the ACC Tournament - definitely a 1 seed, right?

Duke has all the talk right now with Coach K's 1K win, they have the #1 NBA pick, have already won at Wisconsin and have lots more chances at huge wins, including at ND and at Virginia this week. If they win both of those and then win every game before losing a close ACC championship, they would be ranked in the top 3 and have tons of top 25 (and even top 10) wins to be more than deserving of a 1 seed as well as Virginia.

If Wisconsin, a Final Four team from a year ago, loses 2 games all year and wins the regular season and postseason championships in the Big Ten, you don't think they'd get the nod over our Zags?

Even if you say no to Wisconsin, don't you think they would place Arizona as a 1 seed if it only loses 2 games, wins 2 if not 3 games over Utah, and wins the regular season and postseason championships in the Pac 12? Not to mention that they would have the head to head win over Gonzaga on the contrasting resumes.

Obviously, I want the Zags to get a 1 seed, but that's 5 teams that could have pretty outstanding resumes with more opportunities to play top 10 and top 25 teams.

Am I the only one that won't be holding their breath on Selection Sunday for a 1 seed barring some more losses from these teams?

Again, I want this Joe Lunardi statement to be true, but it can't actually be true, can it?

seacatfan
01-27-2015, 10:35 AM
Does it really matter if GU gets a 2 seed instead of a 1 seed? Both would be very favorable. Agree with others that several teams from Power 5 conferences could leap frog the Zags at the end of they year depending on how conference races and conference tourneys shake out.

CDC84
01-27-2015, 10:37 AM
More important than getting the one is staying in the west region and avoiding Kentucky.

DixieZag
01-27-2015, 11:49 AM
More important than getting the one is staying in the west region and avoiding Kentucky.

:agreed:

hooter73
01-27-2015, 11:49 AM
More important than getting the one is staying in the west region and avoiding Kentucky.

agree. we might even have an easier road as a 2, depending on how the match ups end up. With a team like Arizona probably going as a 5 or 6, that could change everything for who gets bumped down or up.

seacatfan
01-27-2015, 12:15 PM
agree. we might even have an easier road as a 2, depending on how the match ups end up. With a team like Arizona probably going as a 5 or 6, that could change everything for who gets bumped down or up.

Is 5 or 6 referring to seed # or position on the S curve?

gonzagafan62
01-27-2015, 12:21 PM
Is 5 or 6 referring to seed # or position on the S curve?

S curve

seacatfan
01-27-2015, 12:24 PM
S curve

I thought so but I wanted to clarify. I was wondering how they could fall that far in the seeding.

zagamatic
01-27-2015, 04:00 PM
Am I the only one who's thinking that Kentucky "may" fall prey to the same problem that the Zags face every year in playing in a perceived weak conference? They've shown that they can struggle with mediocre teams at home as well as on the road already going to 2 overtime games that I've seen. They seriously struggle to score at times. Yes, I know that they have some good wins. Kansas clearly isn't the same team now as they were then, much more cohesive now. UCLA lost that game before they stepped off the bus between the ears. Even Texas, who gave Kentucky a serious challenge at Kentucky has not shown to be that good right now. I guess that I'm just doing something silly and trusting results and the eye test instead of just gulping up what the media is telling me I should believe.

RenoZag
01-27-2015, 04:21 PM
But Kentucky is facing the problem with what, 9 or 10 burger boys ? I think they'll survive.

They'll get their first "L" before the Zags get their second.

CDC84
01-27-2015, 04:24 PM
Kentucky is certainly not flawless. If you play a great zone or pack line defense, don't turn the ball over and can hit your threes, you can hang with them.

That being said, I expect Kentucky to get better and better offensively as they get better with their zone offense. They don't need to get much better, because their defense and offensive rebounding is beyond elite.

I think some of their struggles of late are common with undefeated teams trying to stay undefeated. Also, one of the big reasons to avoid that team early on is because the UK fans travel better than anyone. They will fill up the arenas in Louisville (first two rounds) and Cleveland (regional).

maynard g krebs
01-27-2015, 04:39 PM
Am I the only one who's thinking that Kentucky "may" fall prey to the same problem that the Zags face every year in playing in a perceived weak conference?

Thing is, even if most of the SEC isn't great, its teams are still full of size and athleticism. No comparison in those areas between it and the WCC, which mostly can't recruit elite athletes that the SEC can.

gonzagafan62
01-27-2015, 04:43 PM
Am I the only one who's thinking that Kentucky "may" fall prey to the same problem that the Zags face every year in playing in a perceived weak conference? They've shown that they can struggle with mediocre teams at home as well as on the road already going to 2 overtime games that I've seen. They seriously struggle to score at times. Yes, I know that they have some good wins. Kansas clearly isn't the same team now as they were then, much more cohesive now. UCLA lost that game before they stepped off the bus between the ears. Even Texas, who gave Kentucky a serious challenge at Kentucky has not shown to be that good right now. I guess that I'm just doing something silly and trusting results and the eye test instead of just gulping up what the media is telling me I should believe.
Here's way gonzaga needs to do. Get to the sweet sixteen as a 1 or 2. Do that, we will be done playing in other games.