We Don't Get to the Free Throw Line Enough

[thegloriousgoateeofKP]

The four most important factors for winning basketball games are, basically: field goal percentage, turnover rate, offensive rebounding, and how often you get to the free throw line (regardless of your shooting percentage when you're there). Getting to the line is indicative of aggressive offense and, of course, the shots you take from there are unguarded.

Zags are 3rd, 30th, and 30th in the country in the first three categories respectively. But we rank a pitiful 201st in the country in getting to the line. Don't you guys think that needs to change?

[CDC84]

It's hard to tell. It's hard to pick apart the Gonzaga offense that much when they are in the top 5 in offensive efficiency, second in the nation in field goal percentage, and are shooting near 40% from the 3 point line.

[thegloriousgoateeofKP]

Certainly. But we know there are areas where we need to improve...the defensive end is priority #1 obviously. But wouldn't mind seeing our free throw rate improve too.

We know we're in the Tournament. We know we're gonna have a decent seed. So the rest of the season needs to be about improving and perfecting. And getting to the line is one major need

[Zagdawg]

You can look at it from a few different angles.

So far out of our 19 games played-- only 4 were within 10 point wins--- the opposing team was not trying to foul our players to extend the game/keep the game close at the end of regulation in 15 of those games-- this will make a difference with the overall number of fouls.

Foul a Karno is not really an option for the opposing team as he has been hitting like 68% of his free throws over the last 10 games.

We have been on the road/neutral courts for over half of our games so far this year (10 road/neutral and 9 home) --- we will have 8 of the next 12 games at home-- this should help the overall free throw numbers in the end.

Not really concerned with what has happened so far this year with free throws-- lets just worry about beating St Marys and move forward from there.

Go Zags

[rennis]

If the refs blew the whistle when Domas, Karno, and Wiltjer were taking contact (but finishing anyway) in the paint, we'd be top 5 in that category too. Those guys get hammered every single game.

[sittingon50]

I think in most years you would probably be correct goatee, but #'s can be funny.

GU is #6 in the WCC in offensive rebounding. If you were to look at that stat alone you might deduce they are not very good, or need to get way better. But when you put that together with the fact that they are not only #1 in the WCC but in all of college basketball in FG% (passed Notre Dame, CDC) then you realize that there are not as many offensive rebounds to be had.

And what helps in leading the nation? Well, being #10 in the nation in 3PFG % certainly does. So, you got your big's making layups & your guards bombing away & you're #11 in the nation in PPG & you're #6 in the nation in scoring margin, maybe you should stick with the particular makeup of this crew.

In most years, getting to the line is more better (to borrow from WooHoo) than not. This year, I don't think it is as imperative. JMO.

[gonzagafan62]

I think in most years you would probably be correct goatee, but #'s can be funny.

GU is #6 in the WCC in offensive rebounding. If you were to look at that stat alone you might deduce they are not very good, or need to get way better. But when you put that together with the fact that they are not only #1 in the WCC but in all of college basketball in FG% (passed Notre Dame, CDC) then you realize that there are not as many offensive rebounds to be had.

And what helps in leading the nation? Well, being #10 in the nation in 3PFG % certainly does. So, you got your big's making layups & your guards bombing away & you're #11 in the nation in PPG & you're #6 in the nation in scoring margin, maybe you should stick with the particular makeup of this crew.

In most years, getting to the line is more better (to borrow from WooHoo) than not. This year, I don't think it is as imperative. JMO.

....https://www.facebook.com/GonzagaBull...type=1&theater

[TheGonzagaFactor]

If the refs blew the whistle when Domas, Karno, and Wiltjer were taking contact (but finishing anyway) in the paint, we'd be top 5 in that category too. Those guys get hammered every single game.

That is true. I think we shoot 5-7 less FTs than we should on average in WCC games. Refs tend to have an attitude of: "well if they're so good, they can score with someone pushing/hacking them." We have done well getting to the line in several games. As long as we are scoring consistently from game to game, how we do it in any given game is not so important.

I've heard it both ways in regards to FTs.

"They score a lot, but they aren't very good at getting to the line. That could hurt them if they have an off night from the floor."

-or-

"They score a lot, but they get a very high percentage of their points on free throws. That could hurt them if they don't get calls."


Really, all that is important is scoring. We've shown we can score in every way... whether it be 3 pointers, mid-range jumpers, driving floaters, bank floaters, baseline drives, post-ups, transition, or free throws.

[DZ]

If the refs blew the whistle when Domas, Karno, and Wiltjer were taking contact (but finishing anyway) in the paint, we'd be top 5 in that category too. Those guys get hammered every single game.

Great post.

It sure seems to me there are a lot of games when the other team is in the bonus but they have only 2 team fouls.

Maybe it just seems that way, but I think its happened several times this year.

[mgadfly]

The four most important factors for winning basketball games are, basically: field goal percentage, turnover rate, offensive rebounding, and how often you get to the free throw line (regardless of your shooting percentage when you're there). Getting to the line is indicative of aggressive offense and, of course, the shots you take from there are unguarded.

Zags are 3rd, 30th, and 30th in the country in the first three categories respectively. But we rank a pitiful 201st in the country in getting to the line. Don't you guys think that needs to change?

I like your post because I'm a stat nut.

However, I disagree with your premise of the four most important factors for winning basketball (I think). FG% is obviously very important. TO Rate is important because it gives possessions away. Offensive rebounding is important because it adds possession. Free throws are important because it is the most efficient way to score points for almost every team (plus it puts the other team in foul trouble).

By way of a couple quick examples: I don't think you can ignore defensive rebounding (which if done poorly adds HIGH QUALITY possessions for the other team). Steal percentage or turnovers forced is equal to your own TO rate.

Our offense is efficient. Even so, we need to get to the line more often. I'm not sure what needs to be adjusted. We may see improvement without adjusting anything (especially if we have more close games where we are in the lead and the other team is fouling late - it seems like this year we have either been firmly in the lead and there wasn't a bunch of fouling or the game was close and no one needed to play the foul game to put us on the line). I really wish we had a FT rate for the first 35 minutes of games to see what it looks like without late game fouling influencing the numbers.

[NumberCruncher]

A quick look at all teams sorted by free throw rate doesn't appear to show a high correlation to success.

As a team, the Zags are scoring 1.44 points per shot. This is a superior number and an excellent, simple way to measure offensive efficiency.


During Shem's first two seasons, he took 7.9 free throws per 40 minutes. This season, he's had 3.6 free throws per 40 minutes. I pointed to this trend in some other thread a while back. I still refuse to believe that he is actually being fouled less than half as much as before. Any theories on this out there? Anyhow, he would have 50 more free throws by now if the rate were still 7.9. That alone would move the Zags up to about 85th from 199th.

[rennis]

That is true. I think we shoot 5-7 less FTs than we should on average in WCC games. Refs tend to have an attitude of: "well if they're so good, they can score with someone pushing/hacking them." We have done well getting to the line in several games. As long as we are scoring consistently from game to game, how we do it in any given game is not so important.

I've heard it both ways in regards to FTs.

"They score a lot, but they aren't very good at getting to the line. That could hurt them if they have an off night from the floor."

-or-

"They score a lot, but they get a very high percentage of their points on free throws. That could hurt them if they don't get calls."


Really, all that is important is scoring. We've shown we can score in every way... whether it be 3 pointers, mid-range jumpers, driving floaters, bank floaters, baseline drives, post-ups, transition, or free throws.

I don't know if it's an attitude from the referees or just preference given to guards getting contact around the rim. You can bet the Stripes blow the whistle if there is questionable contact from Karno when an opposing guard attempts a shot in the paint. The reverse, however, simply is not true. Karno takes more contact without the benefit of a whistle than any player I can think of. I know Mark Few has complained about the lack of fouls with all the contact Karno gets from post and guard defenders alike.

[thegloriousgoateeofKP]

Several things.

1. Let's remove the blue-and-red colored glasses and stop pretending the refs are biased against us. I understand the sentiment, but it's a little juvenile.

2. These stats are all rate-based. So, sittingon, it doesn't matter if there aren't a lot of offensive rebounds to be had...it's about what percentage of the available O rebounds we get. That's how these rankings are determined.

3. These "four factors" go both ways. I.e. "turnover rate" means A) not turning the ball over ourselves and B) forcing the other team to. "Offensive rebounding" means A) getting o. boards and B) preventing the other team from doing so.

4. Therefore, "free throw rate" is a combination of how often we get to the line and how frequently we send other teams to the line. So I guess I should've titled the thread differently. But still, anecdotally, it seems like we do ok in terms of not fouling the other team. But we don't seem to shoot many free throws. Just something I'd like to see improved.

[VinnyZag]

Several things.

1. Let's remove the blue-and-red colored glasses and stop pretending the refs are biased against us. I understand the sentiment, but it's a little juvenile.

I agree with everything you just typed, but particularly this.

[mgadfly]

3. These "four factors" go both ways. I.e. "turnover rate" means A) not turning the ball over ourselves and B) forcing the other team to. "Offensive rebounding" means A) getting o. boards and B) preventing the other team from doing so.


Zags are 3rd, 30th, and 30th in the country in the first three categories respectively. But we rank a pitiful 201st in the country in getting to the line.

My mistake, I guess. Because by putting those four rankings rather than all eight rankings you are now saying you were referencing, you mislead me on what you were saying.

We are NOT 201st in the country in getting to the free throw line minus putting the other team on the free throw line. We were/are 201st (kenpom now says we are 199th) in getting tot he free-throw line. Period.

We are 135th in keeping other teams from getting to the free throw line. Your original reference was clearly not a combined rating.

Same for offensive rebounding. We are 30th in offensive rebounding percentage (us getting our misses). We 60th in opponents offensive rebounding (us preventing our opponents from getting their misses). I'm not sure what our ranking is when you combine these two stats but it is absolutely not a combined ranking taking into account BOTH elements of rebounding.