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amaronizag
12-26-2014, 09:28 AM
In the preseason I asked the question "will Few change his offensive system to turn last year's weaknesses into this year's strengths?" I suggested that to make a deep run in March we needed to pick up the slow tempo (148th in the nation last year), be more aggressive passing inside and driving to the basket because our free throw attempt rate was 146th in the nation last year, make the defense pay with a blizzard of 3 point shots for doubling Karno because we only ranked 175th in the nation at 3 point attempts last year. More 3 point attempts translates into longer rebounds into the hands of our talented wings and more badly needed offensive rebounds because last year we ranked 204th in the nation in that important statistic. When all statistical categories were considered, we ended last year ranked 22nd (KenPom), which is about how we stacked up in the dance.

In the preseason I suggested that improvement in the following areas was critical to going deep in March.
2013-2014 end of season
1) tempo (148)
2) free throw rate (146)
3) 3 point attempts (175)
4) offensive rebounds (204)

Preseason prognostication (9/9/2014)
I said that I expected to see improvement in categories 2-4 above, but I have my doubts about #1, the most important stat in going deep. I said we have the talent to average 85+ points per game, but doubted will Few speed up his system to allow it. If he does, I said an elite eight or maybe even a final four is possible. If he doesn't speed up his system, and we continue to average in the low 70 points per game on the road, we'll finish in March about where we always do.

Here's where we stand today (12/26/2014)
2014-2015 (preconference standings)
1) tempo 247
2) free throw rate 229
3) 3 point attempts 231
4) offensive rebounds 11

Preconference prognostication (12/26/2014)
We are exponentially better in the offensive rebound department, but we are dramatically worse in 3 point attempts, free throw rate, and most depressing of all is that our tempo is even slower than in the past few years. About 2/3 of all teams in Division 1 play at a faster pace that we do. These numbers do not bode well for March, but there is a lot of season left for improvement. My preseason predictions for team rankings were #13 preseason, #7 at the start of the conference, and #4 at the start of the Tournament. To date the team rankings varied wildly as always, but Ken Pomeroy had GU at 13 preseason and has us at #7 today starting the conference season. Let's hope we run the table and end up ranked 4th with a #1 seed going into the tournament. Today KenPom has us ranked #3 in the Four Factors category based on our being #3 in AdjOE, 29th in 3pt%, and 5 in 2pt%. Very good numbers in those departments!!

Here's why I think we can still end up ranked 4th with a #1 seed!!!
I think we're better than Villanova. They beat VCU (14th) and Illinois (46th) and had an impressive overtime win against Syracuse (33rd), but their conference is very tough and they have 12 more games against top 50 teams. They're going to lose a few games so we'll be ranked higher at the end of conference. Virginia has beaten 4 top 50 teams; Maryland, VCU, George Washington and Harvard. Very impressive, but they're going to get creamed in the conference by the likes of Duke, and Louisville two times. That only leaves WI for us to slide past to get a 4 seed. WI has to beat 9 top 50 teams in the conference season to stay ahead of GU. I have to believe our record will be better than theirs after the conference championships have been decided. Slide past those 3 teams and we have a 1 seed!!!!!

Reborn
12-26-2014, 10:03 AM
I think two things are very important, and maybe more important then your reasonings. Winning is, of course the key. If we keep winning, we will advance to a #1 Seed just like the 2013 team did. Sometimes we'll score more points then at other times, but winning is the key. You are comparing only certain statistics because in your opinion they are the keys to winning in March, and there are other things to consider. Like defense. You don't even mention that, which I think is odd. Nor do you mention that Gonzaga has out-rebounded every team that they have played so far this year. I'm not sure why. It's obvious that Mark Few disagrees with list of "what's necessary" to win in March. Playing tougher non conference teams is certainly something that I view as important, and if the Zags are playing better teams in their non-conference schedule this year, those offensive #'s that you mention will be lower this year. And I also believe that this year's non conference schedule was tougher then the 2013 team.

You also seem to not mention another very important thing, and that is injuries. Injuries during the season and injuries in March. Injuries have certainly played a very big part in the past 3 years in March especially. Already this year we've had a very key player out, Perkins. He should be back playing in March, and he will certainly help. And bench play is another very important thing. And there is no doubt that the Zags have a better bench this year. what is interesting is that If a reader was to use the information you provider, I would think that he'd come to the conclusion that the Zags will not do well in March this year. You bring up all the reasons why you are concerned about the Zags. And yet, when you come to your conclusion, you state why you think they will be a #1 seed in March. Your reasons in your conclusion have nothing at all to do with your statistical information that you lay out in your post. You conclude that they will get a #1 seed in March because their record will be better then Villinova's and Wisconsin's. Which would be my reasoning as well when I just say, win any way you can Zags. And that there are many ways of winning, and one important factor is "toughness." The other, in my opinion is health. I hope for the best for our Zags.

Go Zags!!!
One game at a time!

ValencyLovesZagsInAtlanta
12-26-2014, 10:45 AM
In the preseason I asked the question "will Few change his offensive system to turn last year's weaknesses into this year's strengths?" I suggested that to make a deep run in March we needed to pick up the slow tempo (148th in the nation last year), be more aggressive passing inside and driving to the basket because our free throw attempt rate was 146th in the nation last year, make the defense pay with a blizzard of 3 point shots for doubling Karno because we only ranked 175th in the nation at 3 point attempts last year. More 3 point attempts translates into longer rebounds into the hands of our talented wings and more badly needed offensive rebounds because last year we ranked 204th in the nation in that important statistic. When all statistical categories were considered, we ended last year ranked 22nd (KenPom), which is about how we stacked up in the dance.

In the preseason I suggested that improvement in the following areas was critical to going deep in March.
2013-2014 end of season
1) tempo (148)
2) free throw rate (146)
3) 3 point attempts (175)
4) offensive rebounds (204)

Preseason prognostication (9/9/2014)
I said that I expected to see improvement in categories 2-4 above, but I have my doubts about #1, the most important stat in going deep. I said we have the talent to average 85+ points per game, but doubted will Few speed up his system to allow it. If he does, I said an elite eight or maybe even a final four is possible. If he doesn't speed up his system, and we continue to average in the low 70 points per game on the road, we'll finish in March about where we always do.

Here's where we stand today (12/26/2014)
2014-2015 (preconference standings)
1) tempo 247
2) free throw rate 229
3) 3 point attempts 231
4) offensive rebounds 11

Preconference prognostication (12/26/2014)
We are exponentially better in the offensive rebound department, but we are dramatically worse in 3 point attempts, free throw rate, and most depressing of all is that our tempo is even slower than in the past few years. About 2/3 of all teams in Division 1 play at a faster pace that we do. These numbers do not bode well for March, but there is a lot of season left for improvement. My preseason predictions for team rankings were #13 preseason, #7 at the start of the conference, and #4 at the start of the Tournament. To date the team rankings varied wildly as always, but Ken Pomeroy had GU at 13 preseason and has us at #7 today starting the conference season. Let's hope we run the table and end up ranked 4th with a #1 seed going into the tournament. Today KenPom has us ranked #3 in the Four Factors category based on our being #3 in AdjOE, 29th in 3pt%, and 5 in 2pt%. Very good numbers in those departments!!

Here's why I think we can still end up ranked 4th with a #1 seed!!!
I think we're better than Villanova. They beat VCU (14th) and Illinois (46th) and had an impressive overtime win against Syracuse (33rd), but their conference is very tough and they have 12 more games against top 50 teams. They're going to lose a few games so we'll be ranked higher at the end of conference. Virginia has beaten 4 top 50 teams; Maryland, VCU, George Washington and Harvard. Very impressive, but they're going to get creamed in the conference by the likes of Duke, and Louisville two times. That only leaves WI for us to slide past to get a 4 seed. WI has to beat 9 top 50 teams in the conference season to stay ahead of GU. I have to believe our record will be better than theirs after the conference championships have been decided. Slide past those 3 teams and we have a 1 seed!!!!!

Virginia plays Duke once and its @ Virginia. A game Virginia will most likely win. The Hoos play Ville twice with the back end @ Ville. I think Virginia gets 2 of the 3 games against Ville/Duke barring injury. My guess is the game they lose out of the 3 to Duke or Ville will not be by double digits. Unless Gonzaga runs the table I think a #1 seed is out. Outside chance with the only loss to BYU on the road and 2 losses on Selection Sunday. The highest rated #2 seed is the more probable outcome. If we win at BYU and SD coupled with the return of Perks and the addition of EM things start to really get interesting for the #1 seed discussion. Should be a blast to follow. Thanks for such a well thought out post. It was enjoyable to read with your prognostications.

hooter73
12-26-2014, 11:24 AM
No chance. Anything less than a no loss record isnt even looked at for GU anymore after the committee "wasted" a number 1 on us a few years ago. - Not my words or full opinion, but no chance we get a 1 this year, too many other good teams.

Chicken Ball
12-26-2014, 11:53 AM
I'll be curious to see how the tempo and three point numbers change once Perkins and McL are in again. I suspect the tempo has slowed to keep Pangos fresh; likewise,,there are fewer three point attempts when Pangos can't play off the ball. And everyone says McL is a jet. That may help us push tempo.

gonzagafan62
12-26-2014, 11:55 AM
First of all I just want to throw this out there:

I see no chance of a #1 seed unless the stars align and every other team loses 5 games (which more than likely won't happen)

I want to address your points from a fans perspective and what I have noticed over the past few years:

1) Speed up the tempo? No. This has no relevance to me. Butler had a slow tempo and went to back to back championship games. We can win going fast, slow, medium.. Doesn't matter... We have beaten the good teams, physical teams, and almost beat #3 in the nation. Not concerned. Tempo doesn't matter in my opinion. Don't care if we are dead last.

2) Free Throw Rate: Kinda disappointing that we are not higher on the list, and I wish Pangos could drive to the lane and get 2 easy points, but I can also see how this is not an issue at all. Gonzaga has been slowing the game down and getting really good shots. We are TOP 5 in the country in shooting percentage. There is not a lot of missed shots, so when the flow of the game is going well, and we are making our shots, why screw everything up, and the momentum, by driving recklessly into the lane? I think it would help some, don't get me wrong, but I don't see it as big of a deal as it was last year, when we could have definitely used this technique. Being smart with the basketball is key, and this team is really using this effectively.

3) Three point ATTEMPTS: Again, going back to being smart with the basketball.... We have been down this year a bit from previous seasons it seems from previous years on 3PT%... Karnowski has been a beast and more aggressive in the paint. Why not use him if he is tearing up the key? Don't need to force up silly 3 pointers... BTW, against Cal Poly we actually saw a lot of these go in (YAY!) so we are getting a taste, but we do NOT wanna be one of those teams that live and die by the 3.

4) Offensive rebounds: I agree this is huge. Draino and Wesley have been huge contributors in this facet of the game. This is why I think we have a shot to go deep. Might be a great offensive rebounding team at the end of the day. Love it. This team will succeed ...

Overall, I think this team will be fine. We have slept walked through a few games, but that's okay. As long as we don't do that in March, and pick up the intensity, we will be fine.

Zagnificent
12-26-2014, 12:49 PM
First of all I just want to throw this out there:

I see no chance of a #1 seed unless the stars align and every other team loses 5 games (which more than likely won't happen)


I don't think this is correct. We don't need every other team to lose five games. We just need Arizona to lose a couple and slip to the 2nd seed in the west. They've already lost one to UNLV. I think two or three more losses should seal the deal. Realistically, Kentucky and Duke are probably locks for #1 seeds. Every other team will lose at least a few games in conference. At the end of the day, we're one of four teams in the west that will really compete for that top seed (AZ, UT, and WA). I'm certain that UT and WA will falter at least a few times, and they have to play each other. If we run the table (like we should), that leaves us with one loss, against AZ in Tucson in OT. That's an impressive resume, and certainly better than the one we had two years ago.

gonzagafan62
12-26-2014, 12:54 PM
I don't think this is correct. We don't need every other team to lose five games. We just need Arizona to lose a couple and slip to the 2nd seed in the west. They've already lost one to UNLV. I think two or three more losses should seal the deal. Realistically, Kentucky and Duke are probably locks for #1 seeds. Every other team will lose at least a few games in conference. At the end of the day, we're one of four teams in the west that will really compete for that top seed (AZ, UT, and WA). I'm certain that UT and WA will falter at least a few times, and they have to play each other. If we run the table (like we should), that leaves us with one loss, against AZ in Tucson in OT. That's an impressive resume, and certainly better than the one we had two years ago.

If SMU, UCLA, and St John's step up (in conference play) you might be right. We would also have to run the table, which I don't see happening either ... That's why I think a team that is fighting with us for the one seed would have to lose 5 games. I agree that UK and Duke are basically locks at this moment but I have a hard time imagining we get there. Arizona will get the BOTD if we are much alike at the end due to virtue of them beating us.

maynard g krebs
12-26-2014, 01:28 PM
A few points that put the OP in perspective:

1) The 4 bigs have made a combined 181 of 288 2 pt baskets, which is 63%. They are combining for about 42.5 ppg on 28.3 fg attempts, so the entire group combines for about 1.5 points per shot. (This is in spite of the low ft rate, which along with the high fg% suggests that for whatever reason, teams just aren't fouling our big guys much).

2) The team is 11th in scoring at 83.7 ppg despite the slow pace. That is due to the remarkable efficiency of the offense, Also, the slower pace also reduces possessions and scoring opportunities for the other team. Pace is really a zero sum game; more for us is more for them and vice versa. You match pace to your personnel; with one of the best inside games in the nation, it makes a lot of sense to play inside out, as the Zags are doing.

3) The low number of 3 point attempts can be explained by referring to #1 above. Teams are so scared of Bell and Pangos going off, due to the fact that the bigs are excellent passers out of the post, that they are mostly defending the posts one on one and taking away the perimeter shooters. Defending this team, it's pick your poison, and as long as the bigs keep shooting 63% inside, the low number of 3 pt attempts isn't a problem. If teams start doubling the post you'll see more 3 pt shots.

So to summarize, to solve the OP's concerns, the Zags would need to shoot quicker, shoot more 3's, and drive the lane more in a quest to draw fouls. Which would lessen the role of the bigs.

My personal preference is uptempo with lots of 3 pt shooting as well. BUt for this team inside out is what works best, so if it ain't broke....

23dpg
12-26-2014, 01:50 PM
A number one seed is completely still in play. There's a lot of basketball to be played in the next three months before this becomes a real issue. But for now, Gonzaga has a punchers chance to get a number one. And if they go undefeated, I would say a top seed is probable.

BULLDOG#1
12-26-2014, 02:12 PM
It's a long shot, but there's a chance.

I think the zags would have to win out.

AND:

St. John's wins the big east (hanging two losses on Villanova)
Duke wins the ACC and hangs losses on Virginia and Louisville (who both get other losses)
Wisconsin and/or Arizona rack up a few bad losses (obviously better for us if it's Wisconsin looking weaker).

Then... maybe... #1s - Kentucky, Duke, Arizona, Gonzaga.

Zagdawg
12-26-2014, 02:13 PM
Would you rather be the last 1 seed with the strongest 2 seed (paired with someone who feels they were due a 1 seed and did not get it) -- or the strongest two seed paired with the weakest 1 seed.

I want Arizona to be our 1 seed in the West --with us being the 2 seed. The boys would go in with a chip on their shoulders and something to prove-- and they already know they can beat Arizona. No stress or extra pressure with being the one seed again.

The folks picking the seeds in the tourney have a good sense of humor-- they might actually let this play out-- and you know everyone wants to see it again-- as it was a great game the first time through.

23dpg
12-26-2014, 02:23 PM
It's a long shot, but there's a chance.

I think the zags would have to win out.

AND:

St. John's wins the big east (hanging two losses on Villanova)
Duke wins the ACC and hangs losses on Virginia and Louisville (who both get other losses)
Wisconsin and/or Arizona rack up a few bad losses (obviously better for us if it's Wisconsin looking weaker).

Then... maybe... #1s - Kentucky, Duke, Arizona, Gonzaga.

If the Zags win out, it's not a long shot, it's a layup really.
In 2012-13, the Zags lost to Illinois by 11 at home and by 1 to Butler on the road. Both were good but not great teams. Butler had 8 losses and Illinois had 12 before they entered the NCAA tourney.
This year, assuming the win out (which I don't in reality) the only loss would be an overtime heartbreaker to a probable single digit seed come tourney time.

I'm sure the KenPom guys have this figured out already but I'd assume Gonzaga's statistical odds of winning out are maybe 10-20%. (probably even lower now that I think about it)
If there was a way to figure out the #1 rankings if GU did indeed win out, I'd put them at 90%.

AnonAzZagTemp
12-26-2014, 02:31 PM
Zags strength of schedule prohibits a #1 seed...to many other teams ahead with much better SOS and unless something rather drastic happens to all of them this is your achilles heel.

SOS rates much higher than conference wins in your circumstance...you could win them all and be this years version of Wichita State...committee is not doing that again...

BULLDOG#1
12-26-2014, 02:53 PM
If the Zags win out, it's not a long shot, it's a layup really.
In 2012-13, the Zags lost to Illinois by 11 at home and by 1 to Butler on the road. Both were good but not great teams. Butler had 8 losses and Illinois had 12 before they entered the NCAA tourney.
This year, assuming the win out (which I don't in reality) the only loss would be an overtime heartbreaker to a probable single digit seed come tourney time.

I'm sure the KenPom guys have this figured out already but I'd assume Gonzaga's statistical odds of winning out are maybe 10-20%. (probably even lower now that I think about it)
If there was a way to figure out the #1 rankings if GU did indeed win out, I'd put them at 90%.

The 2012-13 zags benefited from other teams losing games. This year, it's unlikely that Duke or Kentucky will drop more than a game or two. So that means GU would be fighting with Wisconsin, Arizona, Louisville, Virginia, Villanova, etc for the two remaining number one seeds. That's why I put the note in about other teams losing games... Thus, even if they win out, it's probably a long shot.

Chicken Ball
12-26-2014, 03:07 PM
A few points that put the OP in perspective:

1) The 4 bigs have made a combined 181 of 288 2 pt baskets, which is 63%. They are combining for about 42.5 ppg on 28.3 fg attempts, so the entire group combines for about 1.5 points per shot. (This is in spite of the low ft rate, which along with the high fg% suggests that for whatever reason, teams just aren't fouling our big guys much).

2) The team is 11th in scoring at 83.7 ppg despite the slow pace. That is due to the remarkable efficiency of the offense, Also, the slower pace also reduces possessions and scoring opportunities for the other team. Pace is really a zero sum game; more for us is more for them and vice versa. You match pace to your personnel; with one of the best inside games in the nation, it makes a lot of sense to play inside out, as the Zags are doing.

3) The low number of 3 point attempts can be explained by referring to #1 above. Teams are so scared of Bell and Pangos going off, due to the fact that the bigs are excellent passers out of the post, that they are mostly defending the posts one on one and taking away the perimeter shooters. Defending this team, it's pick your poison, and as long as the bigs keep shooting 63% inside, the low number of 3 pt attempts isn't a problem. If teams start doubling the post you'll see more 3 pt shots.

So to summarize, to solve the OP's concerns, the Zags would need to shoot quicker, shoot more 3's, and drive the lane more in a quest to draw fouls. Which would lessen the role of the bigs.

My personal preference is uptempo with lots of 3 pt shooting as well. BUt for this team inside out is what works best, so if it ain't broke....

Question, Maynard. Why are opposing teams focusing on guarding the three if our best offensive weapon is our front court? Or do they just figure they might have a chance to stop the three point shot, but they basically punt interior defense.

Reborn
12-26-2014, 04:41 PM
One implication that I think many posters are making is that Arizona will be ranked higher then GU, and that they are better. They are behind us now in both RPI and BPI ranking. I agree. Arizona is not better then the Zags, and in time it will become clear. Gonzaga lost a true road game in overtime, and they really should have won that game. I would think that most people who watched the game would think Gonzaga is better. In the end Utah may prove to be better then Arizona. Or maybe UW. The problem with Arizona, as it is with so many teams, they play so many home games in their OOC scheduole, that when they go on the Road they often lose games that you would think they should have won. Gonzaga played some tough games this year that were true road games, and won all but one.

Gonzaga will end up a number one seed, imo, in the west.

Go Zags!!!
One game at a a time!

ValencyLovesZagsInAtlanta
12-26-2014, 06:19 PM
This would be bracket from He**! lol Lets get that #1 seed!

http://www.si.com/college-basketball/2014/12/26/bracket-watch-northern-iowa-wichita-state

DixieZag
12-26-2014, 07:52 PM
I have no idea who, what, where, how, but if someone let me draw up our seed and region right now, I would intentionally pick a 2 seed in the west with Arizona as the one seed.

Takes all the dreaded "No. 1 Seed 'again' crap out of it. And, gives our guys an edge in the first 3 games - "Get to Arizona for a second chance!"

And then, have a game against a team we know we A) Can, and B) Should have, beat.

I think if we win out, we get a one seed. I don't think we'll win out. We'll lose one, hopefully no more. If we lose the one, the prayer is we're a 2 seed in the non-Kentucky/Duke regions.

VinnyZag
12-26-2014, 08:32 PM
Gonzaga is currently third in offensive efficiency on KenPom. To me, the fact that they score so efficiently matters more than how they do it. So I'm not worried much about pace or how many 3s they shoot, as long as they're putting up an offensive efficiency of 116 or whatever. As is often the case, Gonzaga's offense is very good, and it's their defense (33rd in defensive efficiency right now) that will dictate how far they go.

KenPom gives GU an 11.1 percent chance at an unbeaten conference season, in answer to 23dpg's question. That number should go up some if GU wins Saturday in Provo.

I definitely think it's too early to rule out a No. 1 seed, though I do think it unlikely, given Gonzaga's schedule and given that Kentucky and Duke are very likely to get 1s. I also think it doesnt matter all that much. Just avoid being in Kentucky's bracket, no matter what seed they get.

maynard g krebs
12-26-2014, 08:37 PM
Question, Maynard. Why are opposing teams focusing on guarding the three if our best offensive weapon is our front court? Or do they just figure they might have a chance to stop the three point shot, but they basically punt interior defense.

On statsheet.com, Pangos has the number 7 offensive rating nationally and Bell is 27th. Wiltjer is 34th and Sabonis 149th. They list the top 194.

So given the offensive efficiency of the guards, it makes sense that defenses are focusing on not letting them get off. The offense just takes what the defense gives them, and that's the post game so far.

And the patience and unselfishness of Kevin and Gary is pretty remarkable.

TheGonzagaFactor
12-26-2014, 09:43 PM
We aren't getting a 1 seed. If Arizona was to make it through the season with 1 loss, we would have a long shot at a 1 seed. Arizona isn't as good as many thought, so they will end up with 3-5 losses. I would say if we win out we have a 35% chance at a 2 seed and a 65% chance at a 3 seed. If SMU and St John's end up being great, that changes for the better. Right now I would say a 1 seed is impossible, but that's coming from someone who doesn't want a 1 seed. I'd be just as happy with a 2 or 3 seed without the pressure of a 1. I think we are really good--top 5 with Perkins and/or McClellan, but there will be at least 5 teams with better résumés. I think it takes a real homer to think a 1 seed is likely for us.

Why do we care anyway? I'd rather make the F4 as a 10 seed than not make the F4 as a 1 seed, and I'm sure a lot of you feel the same way.

Reborn
12-26-2014, 10:03 PM
We aren't getting a 1 seed. If Arizona was to make it through the season with 1 loss, we would have a long shot at a 1 seed. Arizona isn't as good as many thought, so they will end up with 3-5 losses. I would say if we win out we have a 35% chance at a 2 seed and a 65% chance at a 3 seed. If SMU and St John's end up being great, that changes for the better. Right now I would say a 1 seed is impossible, but that's coming from someone who doesn't want a 1 seed. I'd be just as happy with a 2 or 3 seed without the pressure of a 1. I think we are really good--top 5 with Perkins and/or McClellan, but there will be at least 5 teams with better résumés. I think it takes a real homer to think a 1 seed is likely for us.

Why do we care anyway? I'd rather make the F4 as a 10 seed than not make the F4 as a 1 seed, and I'm sure a lot of you feel the same way.

There is, and always will be room for people like you on this board. But why do you need to stoop so low as to call those of us who believe in our team names. I got so irritated with people like you who have an opinion, and if someone else seems to think differently, you feel this urgent need to try to humiliate us by name calling. Look in the mirror my Zag fellow whatever????? Good luck to you.......

Zag 77
12-26-2014, 10:39 PM
Slow down boys. GU has 19 games left and has not played a WCC game yet. Let us just hope everybody stays healthy the rest of the way and that nobody flunks a class or has a bad case of girlfriend trouble.


Bring this thread back in about 5 or 6 weeks.

:roll:

23dpg
12-26-2014, 10:48 PM
KenPom gives GU an 11.1 percent chance at an unbeaten conference season, in answer to 23dpg's question. That number should go up some if GU wins Saturday in Provo.

Adding Memphis and the 3 games in the conference tourney would certainly drive that number down into the single digits. Thanks VinnyZag.

To others on this thread. I don't think many Zag fans if any think a #1 seed is likely. I'm not sure you all read the posts before you answer them.

To the OP. Do the Zags have a chance at a top seed.? Yes. To think otherwise is being too negative. Is it likely? No. The odds are against Gonzaga, but not as bad as some seem to suggest.
Can Gonzaga go undefeated? KenPom thinks it's highly unlikely. If Gonzaga does go undefeated, will they get a #1 seed? I would say very likely. Unfortunately there is no way to prove this. For those of you that follow bracketology closely, maybe send an email to a few of the gurus out there and see what they say. My guess is that a 33-1 Gonzaga team would be rated as high as 1 (extremely unlikely .001%) or as low as 6 (2 seed) on the S-curve.

Go Zags. Beat BYU

ZagaZags
12-26-2014, 11:03 PM
Until GU picks up a 2nd loss, I think a 1 seed is a possibility. The Zags will be favored the rest of the season.

http://ts2.mm.bing.net/th?id=HN.608038529087570383&pid=1.7

Even if GU finishes with 2 losses, they could still get a 1 seed.