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View Full Version : Dreaming of a FF? Defense need to improve



FuManShoes
12-17-2014, 10:03 AM
For as well as the Zags have played and as dominant as they've been on the offensive side of things, I was surprised to see they have one of the lower defensive efficiency ratings among top teams. According to Ken Pomeroy, among top 20 teams, only Iowa St. has a lower defensive efficiency rating (82). The Zags are at 35. If memory serves (http://thebiglead.com/2014/02/27/picking-a-final-four-team-ken-pomeroys-defensive-efficiency-stats-matter-most/), this stat is more indicative of a team's Final Four chances than offense, with most Final Four teams ranking in the top 20 defensively. Maybe when Perkins gets back and McClellan is inserted things will improve, or maybe the current roster needs to buckle down more and get to an elite level in that department.

http://i.imgur.com/YfibzXf.png

http://thebiglead.com/2014/02/27/picking-a-final-four-team-ken-pomeroys-defensive-efficiency-stats-matter-most/

gonzagafan62
12-17-2014, 10:14 AM
Eh, not really worried about it. Our defense played tit for tat against Arizona. The rankings are pretty cool though! Mostly accurate too.... although I don't see Oklahoma being anywhere near able to stop Gonzaga. That is one team I don't fear at all.

Still early in the season too. :) Thanks for the report.

jazzdelmar
12-17-2014, 10:15 AM
Agree it's key but w healthy Jenks and Mac and more Melson the D will improve. Another factor, better D numbers can also be a function of a slow down offense that wrings the clock. No issue for Zags, unless they are ahead 20 with ten minutes left. :)

FuManShoes
12-17-2014, 10:20 AM
Agree it's key but w healthy Jenks and Mac and more Melson the D will improve. Another factor, better D numbers can also be a function of a slow down offense that wrings the clock. No issue for Zags, unless they are ahead 20 with ten minutes left. :)

Agree the pacing can skew things. The Zags play a fast game, get a lot of possessions, and so defensive efficiency may suffer a bit. As long as the shots are falling, no problem. But in a tight game/low possession game, stops become more valuable. As we saw against AZ, the Zags had trouble getting those key stops.

Once and Future Zag
12-17-2014, 10:20 AM
Agree it's key but w healthy Jenks and Mac and more Melson the D will improve. Another factor, better D numbers can also be a function of a slow down offense that wrings the clock. No issue for Zags, unless they are ahead 20 with ten minutes left. :)

KenPom's stats are tempo-free so are not necessarily corrected to pace of game.

cjm720
12-17-2014, 10:24 AM
Texas Southern abused our full court trap defense at one point. Lot of easy buckets by WSU. Defense has definitely dropped off a bit over the last few games. I'm guessing coaches are all over it as it certainly, IMO, will be the difference between the first and second weekend in the dance.

sittingon50
12-17-2014, 11:10 AM
Testing?

sittingon50
12-17-2014, 11:12 AM
Having issues quoting your OP, FuMan. Look at the last column, non-con SOS. Big difference there. Don't you believe with GU's inverted schedule that these #'s will flip?

LongIslandZagFan
12-17-2014, 11:16 AM
Just to be clear, go all the way over to the last column NCSOS and you will understand why the defensive efficiency of the teams above GU have the ranking they do. Not hard to have a good defensive efficiency when you are playing lesser competition. Lets see where that number lies in mid February.

CDC84
12-17-2014, 11:34 AM
The second halves against WSU and UCLA didn't help that efficiency ranking.

NumberCruncher
12-17-2014, 11:38 AM
The rankings are based on adjusted efficiency. So the strength of schedule is already figured in.

Pulled up the pre-tourney data for all of the final four teams of the last five years(20 teams).

Adjusted Offensive Efficiency Rankings
Mean = 30.4
Median = 17

Adjusted Defensive Efficiency Rankings
Mean = 31.7
Median = 25

Six of the teams had a defensive ranking of 35 or higher.

Ten of the teams had a better offensive ranking than defensive ranking.
Nine of the teams had a better defensive ranking than offensive ranking.
One team had equal rankings.

Chicken Ball
12-17-2014, 11:40 AM
Just to be clear, go all the way over to the last column NCSOS and you will understand why the defensive efficiency of the teams above GU have the ranking they do. Not hard to have a good defensive efficiency when you are playing lesser competition. Lets see where that number lies in mid February.

Kenpom's numbers are adjusted for opponent strength, home/away/neutral, and also for pace of game, to answer jazz's comment above.

gonzagafan62
12-17-2014, 11:41 AM
The rankings are based on adjusted efficiency. So the strength of schedule is already figured in.

Pulled up the pre-tourney data for all of the final four teams of the last five years(20 teams).

Adjusted Offensive Efficiency Rankings
Mean = 30.4
Median = 17

Adjusted Defensive Efficiency Rankings
Mean = 31.7
Median = 25

Six of the teams had a defensive ranking of 35 or higher.

Ten of the teams had a better offensive ranking than defensive ranking.
Nine of the teams had a better defensive ranking than offensive ranking.
One team had equal rankings.

So 35 and 2... Ill take it ...

NumberCruncher
12-17-2014, 11:46 AM
Me, too.

Forgot to mention one thing: All 20 teams were playing well in March. :D

LongIslandZagFan
12-17-2014, 11:56 AM
I understand that it is "adjusted" but I don't think that it will actually be accurately reflected until there is a broader range of data. The sample set is skewed still so regardless of adjustment the numbers are going to be skewed slightly.

CDC84
12-17-2014, 12:19 PM
This team could easily dupe itself into believing it can just outscore people. The offense is that elite. They need to continue to defend. Few needs to continue to substitute to keep the defensive heat on. Scoring won't come so easily come March.

titopoet
12-17-2014, 12:47 PM
Actually, the D numbers are good enough even on the article quoted. The other thing, Kenpom use to wait until 12-15 games to get a better read and the more games, the better the read on D efficiencies. Traditionally, GU D numbers improve as the season goes on, and these numbers the highest they been this early in the season. The trend is over the whole NCAA, Offensive numbers start going down and D number improve. (There is a lot of reason for this, once in conference, teams are more familiar with each other and how they play, better communication among team members etc.) So, looking at this trend, GU is on target for top twenty, top 15 numbers oon D and combine that with the O numbers, it bodes very well

Zagdawg
12-17-2014, 01:30 PM
If Few would stop playing those darn walk ons/end of bench guys and run up the score a bit in our blowouts-- we would have AMAZING numbers --(sarcasm)