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View Full Version : Why all the angst about a ticket to the dance? There are 68 of them.



TravelinZag
03-07-2014, 12:43 PM
That is the same number of teams that have lost fewer than TEN games. That number will shrink, as over thirty teams have already lost eight or nine games.

If the Zags lose a game in Las Vegas, they'll have seven losses on the season and at least an okay RPI. Only 34 teams have lost fewer than eight games, and that number will shrink also. Zags will dance.

For those who persist in worrying, Few wins number 400 tomorrow night and the issue is settled. Sure I'll root for them to win the tournament, but a loss might just bring a #10 or #11 seed. That's the same result as a five or six seed, and much more likely. The only way Zags play in Spokane is if accommodating other teams leaves the committee no other real choice.

gonzagafan62
03-07-2014, 12:50 PM
Nice post, and good opinion,

However, I never like to leave things up to the committee. For some reason this season reminds me of 2011. Win the dang tournament, and don't leave a "possible" spot in the tournament up for debate. IDK if we would've gotten in that year if we didn't win the tournament.

While there is 68 teams, the bubble teams have been consistently winning this entire past week. I have been watching very closely and the only two teams that have lost are St. John's and Richmond, and they are about done except winning the conf. tournament. There are some teams that put themselves back into the bubble ala Pittsburgh and Xavier, and we may be about to pass them seeding wise if we continue to win.

Overall you are correct in sayint that we SHOULD be in the tournament if we win Saturday, but everytime we have had a game where it would have "put us in the tournament" @ BYU, @ Memphis, @ San Diego, it all slipped out of our hands for some reason. I think this team is clicking at the right time, so hopefully this is all moot point.

But this is why I was rooting for Pacific. I am a little weary about Santa Clara. Not so much as to be brutally nervous, but I am concerned.

GO ZAGS!

seacatfan
03-07-2014, 01:51 PM
The Zags have had to play virtual road games as a higher seeded team in the Tourney several times. Would be nice to have it the other way around for once.

While I agree the Zags "shouldn't" be on the bubble, I'm still slightly nervous. I'd like to see them at least get to the title game of the WCC Tourney and avoid taking a bad loss to a bad team at this point in the season. There have definitely been some bubble teams from BCS conferences buckling down and getting some wins the last couple weeks.

75Zag
03-07-2014, 06:44 PM
I am fairly confident about GU, particularly if GU wins tomorrow night but there are not really "68 tickets" since 32 spots are taken by the 31 conference tournament champs + the Ivy League regular season champ. The remaining 36 go pretty fast, especially if the BCS conferences each get 4 or even 5 at large bids (or more!). I agree with seacatfan that some of the BCS conference bubble teams are really starting to heat up right now. Assuming GU gets the autobid I question whether BYU gets an at-large bid unless they do very well in the WCC tournament and make a strong showing in the WCC Championship game. Time will tell.

Go Bulldogs!

TravelinZag
03-08-2014, 06:39 AM
75Zag, BYU this year is exactly the type of team that must drive the selection committee nuts. They have great talent, and when they play well, the Cougars are definitely tournament-caliber. But, they have been very erratic, and if they don't win the WCC tournament they'll have 11 losses. This in a league that has more parity, but is still not a great conference. Look at the overall records in the league standings.

FieldHouseFishHouse
03-08-2014, 08:09 AM
That is the same number of teams that have lost fewer than TEN games. That number will shrink, as over thirty teams have already lost eight or nine games.

If the Zags lose a game in Las Vegas, they'll have seven losses on the season and at least an okay RPI. Only 34 teams have lost fewer than eight games, and that number will shrink also. Zags will dance.

For those who persist in worrying, Few wins number 400 tomorrow night and the issue is settled. Sure I'll root for them to win the tournament, but a loss might just bring a #10 or #11 seed. That's the same result as a five or six seed, and much more likely. The only way Zags play in Spokane is if accommodating other teams leaves the committee no other real choice.

Interesting perspective. I think you make a good point about overall record. The committee will ALMOST always sit up and take notice at a 27-30 win team (but... remember Utah State?), and the Zags usually have one of the best records in the country by Selection Sunday.

However, looking over last years tournament bracket, there were 16 teams with MORE than 10 losses. And another 8 with exactly 10 losses. Only 9 of these teams were automatic qualifiers in seeds 14-16, so the other 15 teams were competitive for at-large bids.

I see two things here:
One is that there are really only about 55-60 bids in the conversation, not 68 - the minor conferences are crap-shoots, nobody know who is going to get in and it has little effect on the rest of the landscape.

Two - Bubble teams are by no means disqualified for having too many losses. 8 teams in seeds 10-13 had 10+ losses (about half of them). If you find yourself on the bubble, the committee differentiates teams based on quality wins rather than overall record. Overall record is great for separating 14s from 16s, but RPI and quality wins determine the rest of the seeding, as well as the last four in/out.