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View Full Version : Fresh, Positive Perspective for the Next Three Weeks | NCAA Tournament Outlook



Gozags99
02-24-2014, 06:11 PM
The Zags have a lot to play for over the next three weeks, and it's time to start fresh. I always like to take one game at a time, but I can't help but look forward.

As a Gonzaga fan, I'm excited for:

(1) an opportunity for a quality road win at Pacific, which has a respectable RPI of 128

(2) an opportunity for a quality road win at St. Mary's, which has a solid RPI of 63

* an opportunity to win the WCC regular season outright. The WCC is much improved and another league championship should not be taken for granted.

(3) an opportunity to win a WCC Conference Tournament quarterfinal game

(4) if successful in (3), an opportunity to win a WCC Conference Tournament semifinal game against a respectable opponent

(5) if successful in (4), an opportunity to win a WCC Conference Tournament final against a quality opponent

I think the Zags make the tournament with the following combination of wins (in order of ideal outcomes):
a. (1)(2)(3)(4)(5), 28-6, automatic bid
b. (1)(3)(4)(5), 27-7, automatic bid
c. (2)(3)(4)(5), 27-7, automatic bid
d. (3)(4)(5), 26-8, automatic bid
e. (1)(2)(3)(4), 27-7, at large bid, likely in
f. (2)(3)(4), 26-8, at large bid, but sweating it out
g. (1)(3)(4), 26-8, at large bid, but sweating it out

I don't really like to think about these scenarios, but a few of them would result in at least a shot at an at-large invitation to the dance:

h. (1)(2)(3), 26-7
i. (1)(2), 25-7
j. (2)(3), 25-7
k. (3)(4), 25-9

For h-k, a lot would depend on what happens for other bubble teams accross the nation.

I hope the team is focused with the mentality that they have an OPPORTUNITY to play their way off of the bubble and into the dance. The Zags can control their own destiny by minimizing turnovers, rebounding, and grabbing loose balls.

A great site to check out is bracketatrix.com, which summarizes a team's projected seed from 82 different sources

Zags Summary of All 82 sites (all 82 have Zags in):

Median Seed: 9
Average Seed: 8.5
Standard Deviation: 1.4
6 Seed Count: 7
7 Seed Count: 15
8 Seed Count: 18
9 Seed Count: 18
10 Seed Count: 19
11 Seed Count: 4
12 Seed Count: 1

Zags Summary of the 43 sites refreshed after USD game (all 43 have Zags in):

Median Seed: 10
Average Seed: 9.2
Standard Deviation: 1.3
6 Seed Count: 1
7 Seed Count: 4
8 Seed Count: 8
9 Seed Count: 8
10 Seed Count: 17
11 Seed Count: 4
12 Seed Count: 1

Go Zags!

bartruff1
02-24-2014, 06:28 PM
I am very much looking forward to the rest of the season, win or lose. It is very difficult to win on the road and the tourney is much more wide open than in the past.

I appreciate the effort of the team and the coaches for this season. I feel they are doing their best.

gonzagafan62
02-25-2014, 06:55 AM
I am very much looking forward to the rest of the season, win or lose. It is very difficult to win on the road and the tourney is much more wide open than in the past.

I appreciate the effort of the team and the coaches for this season. I feel they are doing their best.

+1

Reborn
02-25-2014, 07:44 AM
I agree with GoZags99. There is still alot to look forward to. Lot's of games left, and the best games of the year. We are now getting down to what the whole season is about. The first thing that must be resolved is who's going to be crowned King of the WCC. Gonzaga will have at least a share of the crown. I know I want more, and I'm sure the team does too. Who wants to share a crown. I am more excited today then I've been all year. I am more excited about the outcome of the games this week then I was for the West Virginia game, the K State game, the Memphis game or the games last week. I realize today that "this is it." It's now or never. I'm so excited to see how our team responds.

I remember watching one of the games on TV earlier in the WCC season and Gonzaga was pulling away from the other teams, and the announcer said that he felt the conference championship would come down to the last week of the season because it always does. I thought he was nuts because I felt at that time the Zags would walk away with the title. I was wrong and he was right. Gonzaga dominated both BYU and St Mary's at home, and we won at San Francisco so I felt we had a special team. But then came the road trips, and the teams in the conference proved that indeed, the WCC had improved and teams were catching up to GU, St. Mary's and BYU.

I have liked this season more than most because for the first time I really did not know if Gonzaga would win every game every week. Of course I felt they would. Predicted they would, but inside I knew they could lose, and that made the season very exciting. And most weeks we did win, even if some of the games were way to close. It has been a nail-biting season for sure. And I like that kind of high adrenalin experience. There have been so many stories this year. More then most. I think the biggest story has been THE TOE. The toe is still the most popular thing around to me. It equals Adam Morrison's mustache.

The Zags this year have done one thing that the teams before them have done. They have won despite the problems and challenges that surfaced during the year. There is already one huge story this year which is how the Zags continued to win in conference despite Bell and Dower being hurt, and despite the flu attacks. But the biggest story lies ahead, and will be resolved this week. To me it's, " Despite the TOE, THE ZAGS WIN another CONFERENCE TITLE."

Stay pumped ZagNation!

Go Zags!!!

Go Zags!!!

Mr Vulture
02-25-2014, 09:25 AM
Zags are in with one more win..it's really that easy. Y'all can sweat it out if you want but I think they'd be in if they lost out frankly. The seed would be terrible but I doubt that happens anyway. I predict we win both games this week which will put us as a 10 seed or better regardless of what happens in the conference tournament. Even though we have been playing very mediocre alot this year, look at the other "bubble teams" and tell me how we don't make it in. For crying out loud, a half a dozen have double digit losses with lower rpi's and the same lack of big wins.

DarkZagRises
02-25-2014, 09:58 AM
The Zags have a lot to play for over the next three weeks, and it's time to start fresh. I always like to take one game at a time, but I can't help but look forward...

Nice breakdown - great organization! I'll be at both of these games and I don't plan on being quiet. LOVE the Zags. Rain or shine. And it's mostly shine. ;) Can't wait to get these games going!

bartruff1
02-25-2014, 10:05 AM
Nice breakdown - great organization! I'll be at both of these games and I don't plan on being quiet. LOVE the Zags. Rain or shine. And it's mostly shine. ;) Can't wait to get these games going!

I am with you all the way.... Pacific is a enigma wrapped in a riddle....they stormed the court after beating BYU and they will be wanting to save their season with a team full of seniors.... it will be a very competitive game with a full house...and I can hardly wait to see it....at seven...not crazy about those late games

DarkZagRises
02-25-2014, 10:21 AM
I am with you all the way.... Pacific is a enigma wrapped in a riddle....they stormed the court after beating BYU and they will be wanting to save their season with a team full of seniors.... it will be a very competitive game with a full house...and I can hardly wait to see it....at seven...not crazy about those late games

10PM for my Florida clock. Won't be adjusted to PST in a day. Much better than that 12AM start time for USD though. Brutal. And a loss only insured I was tossing and turning til finally drifting into oblivion around 4:30AM. PTSD.

gonzagafan62
02-25-2014, 11:08 AM
10PM for my Florida clock. Won't be adjusted to PST in a day. Much better than that 12AM start time for USD though. Brutal. And a loss only insured I was tossing and turning til finally drifting into oblivion around 4:30AM. PTSD.

Heck it was an 11pm start here, and I finally fell asleep around 330 I thought that was bad. You took the cake, sir.

RenoZag
02-25-2014, 12:30 PM
Will be attending the Pacific game. Looking forward to seeing how the team rebounds after last week's disappointments.

ZagSports
02-25-2014, 01:02 PM
I have ALWAYS hated the time off between the WCC championship and tip-off for the big dance. Just always felt it was too much time off for the team. This year it could be a very big blessing in disguise to be able to rest up some, get back to correcting some simple x's and o's, and working on the offensive sets.

Gozags99
03-02-2014, 12:58 PM
A great week for the Zags and proud of the team!

Preferred route to the WCC Tournament Title - cheer for the favorites!

(1) Quarterfinal win over Pacific

In my opinion, the Pacific vs. Santa Clara game is a big one for the Zags. Based on results of head-to-head games this conference season, GU matches up much better against Pacific than Santa Clara. In addition, Pacific has a reasonable RPI of 123, while Santa Clara has a terrible RPI of 213. Obviously, Zags should be able to win regardless, but a loss to Santa Clara would have a larger negative impact than a loss to Pacific. At-large hopes would be stronger with a loss to Pacific. My hunch is that the Zags would have about a 50% chance of an at-large with an upset loss in the quarterfinal game (but less if the loss was to Santa Clara)

(2) Semifinal win over St. Mary's

Similar RPI logic here. St. Mary's still has a reasonable RPI of 63, while Pepperdine has a mediocre RPI of 153. Gonzaga demolished SMC in both games. My hunch is that the Zags would have a 75% chance at an at-large if they lost to St. Mary's (less with a loss to Pepperdine)

(3) Final win over BYU

I feel that if Gonzaga reaches the championship game, there is a VERY high chance that they will go dancing, even with a loss. It would be extra security if the loss was against BYU, especially with their lofty RPI of 34. If GU and BYU both reach the championship game, I think both teams will get invited to the dance.

MDABE80
03-02-2014, 01:23 PM
Maybe we'll get a chance to beat the Dongs 3 times in the same year! USF is looking very good these days.

Mr Vulture
03-02-2014, 03:05 PM
Seriously? Zags are in regardless of this tournament...good lord! It's not close...the bubble teams are horrible and could never catch us. We were in the second we beat Pacific by winning the WCC regular season. Yes, I know the conference tournament is the auto bid but we are very solidly in and doubt any lower than a 10 seed frankly.

Reborn
03-02-2014, 03:17 PM
I'm no longer worried about Gonzaga getting into the NCAA tournament. We're in. However, there is STILL A LOT to play for. GU CAN improve their seed with three more solid victories. And they can go backwards toward a worse seeding. I'm sure we're all hoping for a seven seed, and if fate is on our side this year, a six. But that's a long shot, but getting a one seed last year was a long shot. Teams now ranked above GU are falling down left and right.

I believe Gonzaga plays for the pride there is in being a Zag. They want this championship just as much as any Zag team who played in this tournament before them. They will be playing to get that championship trophy and bring it home.

Pleasant Peninsula
03-02-2014, 06:41 PM
Zags could lose to Santa Clara by 20 and they'd still be safely in. The won a top 10 conference by two games.

Zags11
03-02-2014, 11:01 PM
We are in. We are playing for seeding and location. What a wonderful wrap up to the year.

DixieZag
03-03-2014, 06:26 AM
I think we're in also.

I think that we more likely than not win the WCC tourney - would not say that a week ago, they got a big confidence boost this week.

IF they were to drop a game, I think it's more likely to be the semi-final than the final. I think that BYU or USF will be in the final (50/50 - USF will be tough) and I think we own USF pretty well and will be looking to hawk BYU b/c of the last game. I know we've owned SMC but I think that's the reason that I worry we'd look past them a little. Pepp scares me a little b/c they'll be so loose, they have nothing to lose at all - - don't know who will win that QF game but whoever it is can give us a very decent run for the semi-final.

gonzagafan62
03-03-2014, 06:40 AM
I think we got lucky this year with the way the WCC Tournament played out so far this year. We got San Diego, Portland and BYU on the other side of the bracket, and we got Pacific, Saint Mary's, Santa Clara or Pepperdine, all of which we took care of business. I think we should SHOULD get to the title game.