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View Full Version : Zags #9 seed in Media Mock Tournament Selection



WhitworthZAG
02-14-2014, 08:41 AM
Follow Joe Lunardi on twitter and he is updating all of the selections and seeding.

Zags11
02-14-2014, 08:43 AM
We will win out and be 5 seed in spokane.

gonzagafan62
02-14-2014, 08:45 AM
Is there a link to this? I am kind of curious how this works.

gonzagafan62
02-14-2014, 08:51 AM
Is there a link to this? I am kind of curious how this works.

http://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/mock-selection/2014-02-13/inside-committee-room

Zags11
02-14-2014, 08:53 AM
Did you answer yourself? Lol. I got twilight zoned. Lol

gonzagafan62
02-14-2014, 08:57 AM
Did you answer yourself? Lol. I got twilight zoned. Lol

Sure did. Took me awhile to find it but I did.

Zags11
02-14-2014, 09:07 AM
:).

thickman1
02-14-2014, 09:15 AM
Curious if GU was an automatic bid or at-large in that format. I'd have to assume it was an auto-bid.

VinnyZag
02-14-2014, 09:24 AM
Curious if GU was an automatic bid or at-large in that format. I'd have to assume it was an auto-bid.

Auto bid. They set the ground rules on that sort of thing yesterday. BYU is the only other WCC team under consideration.

gonzagafan62
02-14-2014, 09:37 AM
Auto bid. They set the ground rules on that sort of thing yesterday. BYU is the only other WCC team under consideration.

After their loss yesterday the only reason I can see their consideration is because of their tough non-con sked, but with very few big wins in it, it doesn't help as much. Sigh.

GoZags
02-14-2014, 10:01 AM
Looks like WVU is "in" this mock field .... so the old mantra that GU didn't play an NCAA tourney team has been taken care of.

Kong-Kool-Aid
02-14-2014, 11:10 AM
They ended up giving us a 9 seed and sending us to San Diego to play Xavier the first round, with a number 1 seeded Arizona waiting in the wings.

gonzagafan62
02-14-2014, 11:13 AM
They ended up giving us a 9 seed and sending us to San Diego to play Xavier the first round, with a number 1 seeded Arizona waiting in the wings.

As long as we get to the tournament, bring it.

willandi
02-14-2014, 06:48 PM
Zags are 21 in the ESPN RPI, 26 in their BPI, currently AP 27, but with a win tomorrow should go up to 24 or 25, still ranked in the Coaches poll.
What justification is there for a 9 seed?

Kong-Kool-Aid
02-14-2014, 07:01 PM
Lack of Top 50 wins?

VinnyZag
02-14-2014, 07:03 PM
Remember the last time (http://scores.espn.go.com/ncb/recap?gameId=234000003) ninth-seeded Gonzaga played top-seeded Arizona? Probably the most entertaining tournament game Gonzaga ever played.

I'm sure the justification for the 9 seed is Gonzaga's lack of quality wins. Their best wins this year are (these are KenPom ratings, because that's the handiest thing for me to grab) against No. 53 Arkansas, No. 45 West Virginia and No. 56 BYU. They are just 5-3 against the KenPom top 100, with two more top 100 games upcoming, both on the road. They've lost both top 50 games they played.

VinnyZag
02-14-2014, 07:04 PM
Remember the last time (http://scores.espn.go.com/ncb/recap?gameId=234000003) ninth-seeded Gonzaga played top-seeded Arizona? Probably the most entertaining tournament game Gonzaga ever played.


Occurs to me that Florida in '99 was pretty darn entertaining, too.

willandi
02-14-2014, 07:45 PM
So if I read this right, AP and Coaches rankings, RPI, and BPI are meaningless as far as the committee is concerned.
I know that what I am about to say is ridiculous but what if...the WCC has the top 10 spots in the pre-season poll? How would the season break out using the formulas they use?
It seems that, right or wrong, many teams are given a break, more consideration, because of appearances. If you play in the Big East and lose, it doesn't matter as much as a loss in the WCC.
Why do they even play the games? Why not just have a preseason seeding and shoot the works right then? I'm just being facetious. I enjoy the games and have a 'basketball jones' at the end of the season, especially the Zags season. It just seems though, that the rankings, RPI and BPI are a way that ESPN has come up with to decide who gets in and how they get seeded. To ignore that is BS, at least to me.

ZagsGoZags
02-14-2014, 08:17 PM
Zags are 21 in the ESPN RPI, 26 in their BPI, currently AP 27, but with a win tomorrow should go up to 24 or 25, still ranked in the Coaches poll.
What justification is there for a 9 seed?

This is a good question. Our weak non-Conf schedule, and even weaker win-loss record against them, should already by factored in to the polling.
But, generally, it seems we get more love in the top 25 rankings than in the seedings

roxdoc
02-14-2014, 09:05 PM
Pickers got burned pretty badly last year. Not going to cut us much slack for the foreseeable future.

VinnyZag
02-14-2014, 10:57 PM
The two polls (AP and coaches) are emphatically not considered in seeding for the tournament. Remember '02, when the Zags finished ranked 6th in the country and got a 6 seed.
BPI is something that ESPN made up and matters only to ESPN.
RPI is used, but maybe not how I always thought it was. According to Lunardi or Palm or somebody else tweeting from the mock selection, RPI to stratify teams. So, they'll look at how Gonzaga did against the RPI top 50 or top 100. But they apparently don't care as much where Gonzaga stands in the RPI.
But, really, who knows what goes on in that room. I'd recommend not worrying too much about it.

Ekrub
02-14-2014, 11:09 PM
Think I've read somewhere that some of the committee takes into consideration Kenpom, sagarin, bpi, etc... But the official metric they all are required to use to judge teams is RPI

Ekrub
02-14-2014, 11:09 PM
And I'd love Arizona or Wichita state.

JAGzag
02-15-2014, 01:49 AM
I'd love a crappy seed - not because I want our team to struggle, but I'd like to see a little passion and have them play with a chip on their shoulders. When given credit and love (#1 seed *cough) they've vastly underperformed. This team has talent and thrust into a game they "should" lose, I'd love to see what they could do! Bring it.

Reborn
02-15-2014, 06:36 AM
I'd take a #9 seed in San Diego with and opportunity to play Arizona anytime. Arizona is playing without one of their better players who is out for the season. Anyway, I doubt if Arizona will be a #1 seed, and I doubt that they win the Pac 12 tournament. I see them as a 2 or 3 seed in March. We could end up being a 7 seed and playing them in the second round when 7 would meet 2.

Also! Those losses to Kansas St (without Sam Dower the 2nd half), and Memphis were on the road in very tough places for anyone to win. Gonzaga has not lost a game at home this year (so far with one left). There are also alot of games left, and for GU very significant games. If we win them all, IMO Gonzaga will be at least a 6 seed.

TheGonzagaFactor
02-15-2014, 08:08 AM
Occurs to me that Florida in '99 was pretty darn entertaining, too.

It was entertaining but only because we won. Florida played awful (started 1-18 from 3). That AZ game was unbelievable.

TheGonzagaFactor
02-15-2014, 08:10 AM
Think I've read somewhere that some of the committee takes into consideration Kenpom, sagarin, bpi, etc... But the official metric they all are required to use to judge teams is RPI

They use all metrics they can get and aren't required to judge teams by any one category.

willandi
02-15-2014, 08:49 AM
They use all metrics they can get and aren't required to judge teams by any one category.

Extra credit if you are an east coast school or from one of the big conferences.
I just want the Zags in. If they win out, and other teams lose maybe a 5 in Spokane is possible. Not counting location, I would prefer an 11 seed!

exclusivelee
02-15-2014, 09:27 AM
It's not like Gonzaga has a great resume against teams considered locks for the field:

0-2 vs teams in the field: Memphis & Kansas State

4-1 vs teams on the bubble: West Virginia, Dayton, BYU, Arkansas, Saint Mary's

2-0 vs other possible Auto Qualifiers: New Mexico State & Bryant

+1 bad loss: Portland (sub-150 RPI)

jazzdelmar
02-15-2014, 11:53 AM
Zona game was arguably best game in Z history.......never as proud of a squad......how many NBAers did Zona have? Like, 6-7.

Zags11
02-16-2014, 12:55 AM
Ah my guy Stepp.......smh.

bigblahla
02-16-2014, 06:14 AM
Zaggies....expect to get hosed by the selection committee even if Zags win out....it's going to happen. They can't help themselves.

Go!! Zags!!!

gonzagafan62
02-17-2014, 08:25 AM
That Bum Jerry Palm now has GU as a 10 seed. Joe Lunardi has Zags as 8 seed (dropping from a 7 seed)

raise the zag
02-17-2014, 08:34 AM
That Bum Jerry Palm now has GU as a 10 seed. Joe Lunardi has Zags as 8 seed (dropping from a 7 seed)

I'd MUCH rather be a 10 seed than an 8/9 seed, any day.

10 seeds seem to win a game every year, much like a 12 seed. Then you have an opportunity to play the lowest 2 seed and stay away from the 1 seed 'til Elite 8.

8/9 is like a punishment line. Underachievers go there. Much tougher to advance in 8/9 compared to 10, imho.

DixieZag
02-17-2014, 08:34 AM
Wow. It's going to get awfully tight if we drop the BYU one Thursday night. And, reviewing that "resume" above, it's hard to argue against it - maybe the RPI will save us.

gonzagafan62
02-17-2014, 08:35 AM
I'd MUCH rather be a 10 seed than an 8/9 seed, any day.

10 seeds seem to win a game every year, much like a 12 seed. Then you have an opportunity to play the lowest 2 seed and stay away from the 1 seed 'til Elite 8.

8/9 is like a punishment line. Underachievers go there. Much tougher to advance in 8/9 compared to 10, imho.

I would rather be a 10 too. But that's not my point. My point is that our margin for error is thinning. Bubble teams besides (Arizona State and Missouri) keep losing, and we keep winning. Yet we keep dropping on the seed line.

CDC84
02-17-2014, 10:56 AM
It's just too early. The Zags have four games left in the regular season:

at #40 BYU
at #175 USD
at #112 Pacific
at #60 St. Mary's

While collecting a top 50 win at BYU would be huge on Thursday night, I still say it is more crucial that Gonzaga avoid losses at USD and Pacific. Those are very dangerous games. USD because of the Grier factor, and Pacific because GU is unfamiliar with the arena (the Spanos Center is bigger than K2) and the crazy environment that is bound to come with it. If I were forced to pick a loss, it would be at St. Mary's.

The Zags cannot get complacent on this road trip. They are not going to lose 4 games in a row, so the conference has pretty much been decided. But NCAA seeding is really important, and they could drop or gain a seed line(s) based on how this road trip goes.

The WCC currently has four top 100 RPI teams: GU (23), BYU (40), SMC (60) and USF (84). I would be nice if Gonzaga could win the WCC tourney while collecting a couple more top 100 wins.

We'll see.

caduceus
02-17-2014, 11:11 AM
It's gonna be very interesting. In the unlikely event we win out (29-4), RPI is probably going to be top-10 range. In fact, per RPI forecast right now, likely top 8. It's crazy but true. We have a chance to sneak in under the radar with a good seed.
One loss and it's around 11 as long as it's the WCC championship game. Goes down from there.

The bad thing is that we have 4 road games and potentially 3 neutral site games left to play.
The good thing is that we have 4 road games and potentially 3 neutral site games left to play. Chance for more top 50 wins, and road wins weigh more in the RPI.
We pretty much control our tourney destiny.

More than likely our RPI is going to be in the 18-22 range, but one can hope.

Almost time for the annual bracket watch thread...can't wait.

gonzagafan62
02-17-2014, 11:18 AM
Hey what is the website for RPI forecast again?

caduceus
02-17-2014, 11:27 AM
http://www.rpiforecast.com/

DixieZag
02-17-2014, 11:33 AM
It's just too early. The Zags have four games left in the regular season:

at #40 BYU
at #175 USD
at #112 Pacific
at #60 St. Mary's

While collecting a top 50 win at BYU would be huge on Thursday night, I still say it is more crucial that Gonzaga avoid losses at USD and Pacific. Those are very dangerous games. USD because of the Grier factor, and Pacific because GU is unfamiliar with the arena (the Spanos Center is bigger than K2) and the crazy environment that is bound to come with it. If I were forced to pick a loss, it would be at St. Mary's.

The Zags cannot get complacent on this road trip. They are not going to lose 4 games in a row, so the conference has pretty much been decided. But NCAA seeding is really important, and they could drop or gain a seed line(s) based on how this road trip goes.

The WCC currently has four top 100 RPI teams: GU (23), BYU (40), SMC (60) and USF (84). I would be nice if Gonzaga could win the WCC tourney while collecting a couple more top 100 wins.

We'll see.

That's a really nice post. One thing that I am not worried about is that GU will be complacent in any of these games. I do not see a Portland game or even an SCU game in the near future. I think they are well aware that their one loss record is a bit deceptive (at this point) and that this 4 game road trip is unbelievably important.

The BYU game would be big and intense anyway, and I think BYU did us a service by losing to Pacific b/c we will not overlook it like we might have. The guys know how quickly they can get brained in USD and SMC is SMC. I don't see complacency coming, hope I'm right. Not to say they could have a really off night or run into a team that won't miss, just I don't see a Portland effort.

siliconzag
02-17-2014, 11:35 AM
I'd take a #9 seed in San Diego with and opportunity to play Arizona anytime. Arizona is playing without one of their better players who is out for the season. Anyway, I doubt if Arizona will be a #1 seed, and I doubt that they win the Pac 12 tournament. I see them as a 2 or 3 seed in March. We could end up being a 7 seed and playing them in the second round when 7 would meet 2.

Also! Those losses to Kansas St (without Sam Dower the 2nd half), and Memphis were on the road in very tough places for anyone to win. Gonzaga has not lost a game at home this year (so far with one left). There are also alot of games left, and for GU very significant games. If we win them all, IMO Gonzaga will be at least a 6 seed.

God Love's you Reborn and so do I. That said, 6 is a bit high for the Zags this year. I wonder if San Diego might end up the #1 seed in the West, and I see Arizona losing up to 3 more games, possibly 4, like you. They are vulnerable in Utah, Colorado, and also in Oregon (both Ducks and Beavs). KSU defeated KU in Manhattan, lest you forget, and Memphis is all over the place, hard to place in the pecking order. The Portland game will haunt the Zags. Stands out like a sore thumb, I'm afraid, and if the Zags truly run the table, and they might, I think a lower seed than 6 is likely. Still I love your optimism.

Now for the big question. Where would you put my Bluejays. (If I were you I would be saying something like "1 or 2 seed" in St. Louis, but then, I am not imbued with your perpetual optimism, so I will say a 3 seed, hopefully still in St. Louis, where I have tickets in section 113).

Sili

Zags11
02-17-2014, 12:15 PM
Im only worried bout byu as they can get real hot and if our guards struggle. I believe we win out.

raise the zag
02-17-2014, 12:21 PM
I find it interesting that the WCC is ranked ahead of the Mountain West Conference(home of #5 SDSU) and Missouri Valley Conference(home of #3 Wichita St).

WCC is ranked the 9th best conference this season, our highest conference ranking/rating in years.

Zags conference wins not counting for much, understandably so, yet considering the conference is stronger overall, we should also be receiving a bit more credit as well. Our RPI tells the story better than media perception.

Even Top-5 SDSU dropped a game in their lower-rated Conference (although they have better resume), yet point still holds.

WCC is no chopping block this season.

No Top-10 rated conference can be considered as such.

IF Zags would have challenged themselves more in OOC or beaten Dayton, then we'd be talking Top-5 seeding come NCAA time.

Tough to count on only 2 true road games AT Top-25 K-State AND Memphis, and expect wins. Although we were leading both teams in crunch time until an epic collapse of coaching(Memphis) and injury(K-State) cost us those resume-building wins.

Zagdawg
02-17-2014, 12:22 PM
If we can start pushing the needle to the next level as we move through the next 4 road games--this could be a great prep run for the WCC tourney---then the dance.

The last set of games to get us healthy and prep for a solid run.

cbbfanatic
02-17-2014, 12:25 PM
It's gonna be very interesting. In the unlikely event we win out (29-4), RPI is probably going to be top-10 range. In fact, per RPI forecast right now, likely top 8.

I am unfamiliar with that site, but after taking a couple minutes to play with it, i was unable to recreate your "top 8" claim... how'd you come to that?

the most favorable situation i've seen puts GU at 15, which would be winning out in the RS. hard to imagine such a huge bump (up to 8) from the conf tourney, esp given that so many other teams out there are going to have opportunities galore for RPI movement.

gonzagafan62
02-17-2014, 12:26 PM
I am unfamiliar with that site, but after taking a couple minutes to play with it, i was unable to recreate your "top 8" claim... how'd you come to that?

the most favorable situation i've seen puts GU at 15, which would be winning out in the RS. hard to imagine such a huge bump (up to 8) from the conf tourney, esp given that so many other teams out there are going to have opportunities galore for RPI movement.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/ct/Gonzaga.html

You have to click "With Conference tournaments" ... which shows that we would be 29-4, and an expected RPI of 8.4

cbbfanatic
02-17-2014, 12:34 PM
http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/ct/Gonzaga.html

You have to click "With Conference tournaments" ... which shows that we would be 29-4, and an expected RPI of 8.4

thanks --- thought i did that, guess not.

still surprising to me that they'd get such juice from the conference tournament when there arent really any great wins there to be had, and given its a pretty small sample at this late point in the season. anyway, we'll see --- im sure the forecast metrics get tricky with conf tournaments when you dont know who will be playing whom, how many games each team will play, etc.

CarolinaZagFan
02-17-2014, 01:03 PM
I'd love to be a 9 with a second round payback matchup with 1 seed Wichita St. That's what I'm pulling for. I bet they don't hit every three they chunk up this time around.

BobZag
02-17-2014, 03:22 PM
Hoping for a 6 seed. Will be fine with a 7 or 10. Anything to avoid an 8 or 9 seed.