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gonzagafan62
02-10-2014, 08:12 AM
CBS has us on the bubble.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/bubble-watch

Mr Vulture
02-10-2014, 09:12 AM
Jerry Palm is an idiot...he had us as a 3/4 seed last year until a week before the tourney when he bumped us to the lowest 2 seed. He hates the WCC and Gonzaga. We are not on the bubble unless we lost 2-3 more games in league this year. Even then, I don't see any way we don't make the tournament. This team is a 7-10 seed IMO.

MTZag03
02-10-2014, 09:16 AM
Agreed Mr Vulture. What are the odds of us winning 3 straight WCC tourney games given our injuries and total lack of offense recently? We could hit the bubble if we don't at least make the tourney championship.

raise the zag
02-10-2014, 09:24 AM
CBS has us on the bubble.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/bubble-watch

For whatever reason, several CBS analysts were stating the Zags would "likely have to win WCC tourney to make the Tournament". Via Twitter.

How in the world is a team with a Top-25 RPI this late in the season, 'on the bubble'? Zags are 22 RPI.

In addition, the WCC is ranked as the 10th best conference this season in terms of RPI, usually we are 13th or 14th best conference.

Do they even pay attention?

One CBS guy actually said, "without a single signature win & losing to Memphis, Zags have no at-large chance and will require an auto-bid".

Get real.

VaBeachZAG
02-10-2014, 09:27 AM
CBS has us on the bubble.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/bubble-watch

At this stage of the season, the one and only thing I desperately do not wish to see is a break in our string of consecutive tourney appearances. I don't care how we get in, I just want to get in. Well, okay, I would prefer getting in by winning out the season.
But if we can't win out (odds are probably against that), I just want to get in, via conf. championship, conf. tourney championship, or last four in....whatever it takes!

gonzagafan62
02-10-2014, 09:31 AM
At this stage of the season, the one and only thing I desperately do not wish to see is a break in our string of consecutive tourney appearances. I don't care how we get in, I just want to get in. Well, okay, I would prefer getting in by winning out the season.
But if we can't win out (odds are probably against that), I just want to get in, via conf. championship, conf. tourney championship, or last four in....whatever it takes!

+1 and getting back to what Mr. Vulture stated earlier, Southern Miss a couple years ago had a similar RPI in the 20s and didn't beat a quality opponent, and Larry Eustachy's team made the tournament as a 9 seed. Didn't win the tournament either. We just competed with Memphis on all levels. Its not like we got destroyed.

Zag_Dad
02-10-2014, 10:37 AM
How is a team ranked in the top 25 for most of the season, and currently 27th, considered a "bubble team?" I would hate to test the theory, but my belief is that we can lose a conference game on the road (BYU or Saint Marys) and still get an at large bid so long as we make it to the conference championship title game.

Hopefully we take care of business in Vegas and don't have to wait anxiously on selection Sunday as the brackets are announced. Let's keep this streak alive!

caduceus
02-10-2014, 01:14 PM
Bah, Palm's had us on the bubble for a while now on his bracketology page. I laughed when I saw it.

RPI is 21.
First place in WCC.
28th on KenPom.
Probably 24-6 at the very worst before the tourney.
Very few cupcakes in our OOC schedule.

No way we're on the bubble.

gomemphistigers1
02-10-2014, 01:31 PM
Gonzaga still has big games: @BYU, @St Mary's, WCC Tourney...that's where Gonzaga's seed will be determined.

Notice I said "seed"...Gonzaga is already in...no bubble involved.

CDC84
02-10-2014, 01:47 PM
Once again, analysts making far too much of a deal out of a team that lacks "quality wins."

The 2004 team got a number two seed despite having just one top 50 RPI win. That team also played in a WCC that's weaker than this year's WCC.

Quality wins only become a major factor when it comes to seeding (say, if you want a high seed) or if you have a bunch of bad losses.

I would be concerned if Gonzaga falls to pieces during the final four game road trip. But the same could be said about a lot of teams. Really, no one is breathing easy right now except teams like Syracuse.

I also continue to believe that the Sam Dower and Gary Bell injuries that played a part in the losses at Kansas State and Portland won't be totally ignored.

MTZag03
02-10-2014, 01:48 PM
The sad reality is that if Gonzaga could get past the first weekend of the tourny, there wouldn't be talking heads putting a 21-4 team with the number 22 rpi on the bubble. Terrible/lazy sports writers will always do this.

Reborn
02-10-2014, 01:58 PM
Jay Bilas said we are in. Does that help you believe?

Gonzaga is a very good team and worthy of it's 22nd rank on the RPI. Gonzaga is ranked 27th in AP poll and 24th in coaches poll. Gonzaga has played 3 teams who play very very well at home: Memphis, Kansas St. and West Virginia. These were not home games. Anyone who knows anything about seeding in the NCAA tournament knows that playing good teams on the road and winning or doing very well, counts more then home court victories. West Virginia just beat Oklahoma and Kansas St at home. Kansas St has beaten West Virginia, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St and Texas at home. How can people who profess they know something about basketball say that Gonzaga has no meaningful victories.

However, I am not worried at all. Gonzaga almost always takes care of it's own business and does not depend on the opinions of others. They will win the conference title because to them it's something that DOES MATTER. IMO they will also win their conference tournament. Are there good teams in the WCC to be concerned about? There sure are. I think the WCC is really good this year and Gonzaga must give full focus to each and every team they play. One game at a time. Could other teams win the Conference Tournament? Yes, but not as likely to do that as Gonzaga is. I don't know about you, but I think Gonzaga is hands down the best team in the WCC and in the next month we get to see it all played out. I look forward to each and every step of the way.

Go Zags!!!

willandi
02-10-2014, 02:08 PM
I believe that the NCAA usually also considers injuries etc., when deciding on who is in and where. We have lost 4 games and have had Dower out for the KS loss, Bell out for the Portland loss and KP dealing with turf toe and now a sprained ankle. In my opinion, I don't see how the Zags would not be in unless they fall completely apart the last 6 games. If we win 4 of the 6, we are the outright regular season champs, and get the number 1 seed into the WCC tourney!

gonstu
02-10-2014, 02:10 PM
I would like to think zags are safely in too.

What I think will happen is: win both home games, split the 4 road games. In that scenario we are outright WCC champs @ 25-6 and, I think, a lock regardless of WCC tournament. I am thinking 8/9 seed.

win more than just the sweep on the road and the wcc tourney & I think our ceiling is a 6 seed right now, which I would take in a heart beat.

Reborn
02-10-2014, 02:33 PM
I would like to think zags are safely in too.

What I think will happen is: win both home games, split the 4 road games. In that scenario we are outright WCC champs @ 25-6 and, I think, a lock regardless of WCC tournament. I am thinking 8/9 seed.

win more than just the sweep on the road and the wcc tourney & I think our ceiling is a 6 seed right now, which I would take in a heart beat.

I wonder if a #6 seed would get us into the Spokane pod?

Zags11
02-10-2014, 02:56 PM
Id bet we are in unless we lose every game.

DADoZAG
02-10-2014, 02:59 PM
I wonder if a #6 seed would get us into the Spokane pod?

Only if Gonzaga changes it's name to "Davidson".

Go ZAGS!

caduceus
02-10-2014, 03:09 PM
Per RPI Forecast (http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Gonzaga.html), probabilities of final season record and subsequent RPIs. Even at 23-7, RPI is still top #30. Absolutely no way GU is a bubble team, and it's an insult to even hint it.

Final Record Expected RPI Probability 26-4 14.3 14.72% 25-5 18.1 37.52% 24-6 22.6 32.67% 23-7 28.2 12.71% 22-8 34.7 2.14% 21-9 43.7 0.23%

Zags11
02-10-2014, 03:11 PM
Cad, u tell them.

Reborn
02-10-2014, 03:19 PM
Per RPI Forecast (http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Gonzaga.html), probabilities of final season record and subsequent RPIs. Even at 23-7, RPI is still top #30. Absolutely no way GU is a bubble team, and it's an insult to even hint it.

I also felt it was an insult. But it's the norm for this reporter (Jerry Palm). Consider the source is my recommendation.

maynard g krebs
02-10-2014, 03:23 PM
Didn't anybody actually click on the bracketology in that link? It says "in for now", as a 9 seed. Can't remember where, but recently I saw a list of about 48 "bubble teams", which were like the last 30 in and the first 18 out. Things are pretty fluid at this point.

9 seed maybe a line or 2 low, but nothing to get in a snit about.

ZagaZags
02-10-2014, 03:27 PM
CBS saying 21-4 Gonzaga is a bubble team is laughable. http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rpi/_/teamId/2250

Martin Centre Mad Man
02-10-2014, 03:29 PM
We are "in for now," which means it will take a monumental meltdown to knock us out. Our kids should probably win four out of the last six regular season games and a couple of conference tourney games to be safe. That would be a final record of 27-7. That would be enough. If we split the last six games at 3-3, I will be very nervous heading into Vegas.

DixieZag
02-10-2014, 04:34 PM
I like the way ESPN does it with the "Safe" "Work to Do" and a few other categories I am not remembering. "Safe" simply means just that, you could lose out and still make the tourney. Work to do simply means that - gotta get a few more wins and then you're in. Surely that's where we are - get 4 more regular season wins and be regular season champs and we're in - IMHO. Which, BTW, I consider the most likely of all scenarios.

GoZags
02-10-2014, 04:46 PM
Jamie Z is ON THE COMMITTEE. No way does a Top 45 Zag team NOT make the dance field. I believe the RPI will end up in the 20's. No bubble here.

Oregonzagnut
02-10-2014, 04:57 PM
If we can assume the staff and team sees how Memphis slipped away, I do not see us losing anymore games, up to an including the conference tournament. Forget relying on the 3 pt shot, if we can just be average from three and work Karno and Dower down low, the only game I remotely worry about is at BYU and our defense can neutralize them.

In Vegas we will take the auto bid, considering how well we played in Memphis.

However some of that assumes Pangos will be far more healthy and the team will get out of its offensive funk.

Reborn
02-10-2014, 05:15 PM
West Virginia just slaughtered Iowa St by 25 at home. Iowa St was ranked 11th in AP poll (which to me is laughable). I tell you most teams do not want to go into WV and play. That is a very hard place to win.

Reborn
02-10-2014, 07:43 PM
#7 Kansas just loses to Kansas St, @ K State. Yep...Gonzaga didn't play anyone did we. Told you Kansas St is very hard to beat in their home arena. Dower didn't play the second half in our loss to them.

However, I will tell you that neither Kansas nor Iowa St will drop much at all in the polls. Especially Kansas because Kansas is coached by the son of Zeus. I love to see these one and done factory schools get beat. Yeah!!!!

Go Zags!!!

TheGonzagaFactor
02-10-2014, 07:56 PM
For whatever reason, several CBS analysts were stating the Zags would "likely have to win WCC tourney to make the Tournament". Via Twitter.

How in the world is a team with a Top-25 RPI this late in the season, 'on the bubble'? Zags are 22 RPI.

In addition, the WCC is ranked as the 10th best conference this season in terms of RPI, usually we are 13th or 14th best conference.

Do they even pay attention?

One CBS guy actually said, "without a single signature win & losing to Memphis, Zags have no at-large chance and will require an auto-bid".

Get real.

I'll agree that the assessment was over the top, but in a way it's right. We just don't have the wins and we have a bad loss against Portland. Dayton isn't that good either, they've sorta fallen apart since starting A10 play. KSU and Memphis aren't bad losses--on the road against good teams. I wouldn't say we are on the bubble just yet, but we have no margin for error. We can lose either @SMC or @BYU. Any two losses from now to end of the regular season would put us on the bubble.

ZagaZags
02-10-2014, 08:21 PM
I have had snot bubbles I was more worried about.

29-5

ZagsGoZags
02-10-2014, 09:36 PM
all of todays rankings in one place CBS, AP, Coaches, and RPI in case somebody did not glean them all from the thead:

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/rankings

Zags11
02-10-2014, 10:15 PM
I have had snot bubbles I was more worried about.

29-5

ewww. Sledgehammer it out.

BigTymeONIONS
02-11-2014, 06:53 AM
Lunardi has Zags as a 7 seed. Doesn't seem like the bubble to me.

willandi
02-11-2014, 07:18 AM
all of todays rankings in one place CBS, AP, Coaches, and RPI in case somebody did not glean them all from the thead:

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/rankings

Perhaps the analysts at See...BS should look at the polls before they open their mouths and remove all doubt!

75Zag
02-11-2014, 07:52 AM
I hang around with a lot of people who are big time BCS football fans. They live and die over whether their team has the ranking to play in the National Championship game. I am so happy I am a GU basketball fan. The only thing that matters to me is that GU makes it to the NCAA Tournament. After that, the best team can play its way to the top regardless of rankings or polls.

Go Bulldogs!

gonzagafan62
02-11-2014, 02:11 PM
+1 75Zag. You are so correct, and thanks for your post. Well said.

cbbfanatic
02-11-2014, 03:06 PM
7-8 total losses and its time to sweat. 4-6, no concern at all.

also wouldnt get too worked up over polls or rpi. rpi is less the indicator that it once was (plenty of schools out there have "cracked the code" on maximizing rpi opportunity/minimizing risk), and ranked teams have been left out before - though again, if the loss column gets to 7-8 there is no way GU will be anywhere near the top 25.

the lack of truly good wins is the only minor concern here (becomes major if the loss total creeps upwards). while it is only a minor concern given that i think most expect GU to finish without taking many more losses, it is definitely a real thing. pump wvu all you want, but they're not sitting in the top 50 and have lost at home 5x this year, including one to purdue. its a decent win, but nothing to hang our hat on.

when they flash resumes on the screen in march, would winning @ wvu be on the "good win" list for a team from the b12? honest question, and my guess is no. always loved that double standard with the BCS guys and mid majors --- one year i saw a big east team have seton hall listed as a bad loss (they were probably ~150 rpi), while just segments later some random mid major had them listed as a quality win. comical

in any case, lack of quality wins doesnt matter if you only have 5-6 losses. its just the state of the game these days.

gonzagafan62
02-12-2014, 07:23 AM
7-8 total losses and its time to sweat. 4-6, no concern at all.

also wouldnt get too worked up over polls or rpi. rpi is less the indicator that it once was (plenty of schools out there have "cracked the code" on maximizing rpi opportunity/minimizing risk), and ranked teams have been left out before - though again, if the loss column gets to 7-8 there is no way GU will be anywhere near the top 25.

the lack of truly good wins is the only minor concern here (becomes major if the loss total creeps upwards). while it is only a minor concern given that i think most expect GU to finish without taking many more losses, it is definitely a real thing. pump wvu all you want, but they're not sitting in the top 50 and have lost at home 5x this year, including one to purdue. its a decent win, but nothing to hang our hat on.

when they flash resumes on the screen in march, would winning @ wvu be on the "good win" list for a team from the b12? honest question, and my guess is no. always loved that double standard with the BCS guys and mid majors --- one year i saw a big east team have seton hall listed as a bad loss (they were probably ~150 rpi), while just segments later some random mid major had them listed as a quality win. comical

in any case, lack of quality wins doesnt matter if you only have 5-6 losses. its just the state of the game these days.

The West Virginia Road win is looking better everyday after WVU shellacked the Cyclones, and we actually beat them. They are now on the brink of the good side of the bubble with BYU. Also Arkansas, while still a long shot is also on the bubble. Teams from the ACC and SEC seem to not to want to win. Keep winning and it will all play out, but we do have some wins we can hang our hat on against other bubble teams. Ill take it.

zag67
02-12-2014, 08:56 AM
I do not have much to add over what 75Zag and CB have previously said.

I know that it is not great to have over 3 or more losses a year, but since I go back into the fifties following Zag basketball, I think that the coaches and players are doing great. And remember teams like Memphis have 13 players that are in the top 100 of recruits. We find gems that can compete with the best and have a program that is not always under investigation or having players in trouble. Thanks and go Zags.

kitzbuel
02-12-2014, 09:02 AM
I hang around with a lot of people who are big time BCS football fans. They live and die over whether their team has the ranking to play in the National Championship game.

Go Bulldogs!
Obviously your friends didn't go to UW or WSU.

75Zag
02-12-2014, 03:05 PM
Obviously your friends didn't go to UW or WSU.

It appears that you might not be impressed by the fancy UW Law School diploma that hangs on my wall next to my GU diploma, but I am a GU basketball fan forever and ever. Speaking of football, and you can choose to believe this or not, but a very high ranking Nike guy was in my office recently and he saw my UW Law School diploma and said "if you want to upgrade that to Oregon I can help you".

And I said "I appreciate the offer Phil, but no thanks".

Go Nike!

Go Bulldogs!