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View Full Version : Seven to nine games left; what are the Zags playing for?



TravelinZag
02-09-2014, 05:56 PM
The Zags could finish 30-4 (not likely), 21-11 (impossible), or something in between. Assume nothing will get them a four-seed and first two rounds in Spokane. So what would 9-0 or 8-1 get them?

On the other hand, how many of the next six games do the Zags have to win to guarantee an at-large bid? Three? Four? What is the highest/lowest seed possible for the Zags in any event? Is there truly an important difference among being a five-seed, a six-seed, or a seven-seed? Not in theory, but in Zags' experience?

Note the focus is on the NCAA tournament, because that is what basketball is about, not regular season titles and certainly not conference tourneys (except, unfortunately, that's what automatic bids are given for, not for the season's body of work).

Think the Zags are playing for their own pride more than anything. They'll get a dance invitation, and they've earned it. They have achieved more (with less) than many Zag teams. If their season has contained some frustration and disappointment, they have also grown, shown some grit and some guts, and been damned entertaining. They are a credit to themselves and GU, and the fun is just beginning. However it all turns out, I already know I'll thank them for the joy they gave me.

ZagaZags
02-09-2014, 06:04 PM
I see 29-5 for Gonzaga. 1 more loss on the road and a WCC championship. GU would get an at-large bid if they finish 1st in the WCC and lose in the WCC tourney. At this point the Zags are playing to avoid the 8-9 seed in March Madness.

BobZag
02-09-2014, 06:19 PM
Win regular season.
Make to tourney final.

That gets the guys in the dance again. 2 or 3 more losses are okay.

Zags11
02-09-2014, 06:40 PM
Yes. They will make march. If they won out, and had record of 29-4....4 or 5 seed in spokane.

gamagin
02-09-2014, 06:41 PM
Zags are playing for this, and beyond:

During the 1998–99 season, the Bulldogs finished with a 28-7 record and the conference tournament championship, which gave Gonzaga a 10-seed into the 1999 NCAA Tournament.[7] In what would be the tournament's "Cinderella" run and Gonzaga's "coming out party" (Gonzaga has made the NCAA Tournament each year since) the Zags beat seventh-seeded Minnesota 75–63 in the first round and followed it with an 82–74 win over second-seeded Stanford to advance to the regional semifinals.[8] The Zags would go on to beat Florida 73–72 to advance to the regional finals after Casey Calvary tipped in the winning basket with four seconds remaining.[5] They trailed eventual national champion UConn by one point with a minute remaining before losing 67–62 in the regional finals.[9

TheGonzagaFactor
02-09-2014, 06:41 PM
Just make the tourney. Given the circumstances for this season--rebuilding year and injury problems, a tourney appearance would make me happy.

They could still play in Spokane even without a great seed.

CDC84
02-09-2014, 08:10 PM
I just don't want to get stuck with what they call the death seed: an eight or a nine. Whatever it takes to avoid that, I'm all for it. If they win the WCC regular season and postseason titles, and lose one more game, there's probably a 100% chance that GU will stay out of that game.

zags422
02-09-2014, 08:46 PM
I just don't want to get stuck with what they call the death seed: an eight or a nine.

I see early opportunity; knock off the one and smooth sailing onwards

CDC84
02-09-2014, 08:50 PM
The percentages are very much against that happening if you study tournament history. Especially in the modern era with the pod system where number ones are allowed to play close to home.

Reborn
02-09-2014, 09:02 PM
In my opinion the Zags are playing for the conference championship. I know how important that this is to Mark Few, and I agree with him. I think the conference championship means a lot. And by now we all know what Few thinks about the NCAA tournament. IMO it's important to him because he understands what it means to his players and fans. I'm sure they keep an eye on the seeding for the tournament, but IMO not very much. IN an interview with a reporter before the game the reporter was asking him what the Memphis game meant to him, and why he would schedule a non conference game toward the end of a season. He DID NOT mention anything about seeding for the tournament. That was saved for Jay Bilas. I loved Few's answer. He felt it was good for both programs, good for basketball and good for the general public. And he was right. It was a great game.

I know there is a lot of pride on that team to win the conference championship, and I believe the team's focus is on that. I think they have only lost it like once in 14 years, and several teams have done amazing things at the end of the season to reach that goal. Gonzaga is staring at a huge challenge in two weeks. Yet, I know they are going to keep their eyes focused on the next two games at home.

Go Zags!!!

ZagaZags
02-09-2014, 09:31 PM
In my opinion the Zags are playing for the conference championship. I know how important that this is to Mark Few, and I agree with him. I think the conference championship means a lot. And by now we all know what Few thinks about the NCAA tournament. IMO it's important to him because he understands what it means to his players and fans. I'm sure they keep an eye on the seeding for the tournament, but IMO not very much. IN an interview with a reporter before the game the reporter was asking him what the Memphis game meant to him, and why he would schedule a non conference game toward the end of a season. He DID NOT mention anything about seeding for the tournament. That was saved for Jay Bilas. I loved Few's answer. He felt it was good for both programs, good for basketball and good for the general public. And he was right. It was a great game.

I know there is a lot of pride on that team to win the conference championship, and I believe the team's focus is on that. I think they have only lost it like once in 14 years, and several teams have done amazing things at the end of the season to reach that goal. Gonzaga is staring at a huge challenge in two weeks. Yet, I know they are going to keep their eyes focused on the next two games at home.

Go Zags!!!

Sad to think, the last 2 home games.

MontanaZag
02-09-2014, 11:39 PM
Ill take the 8 or 9 seed with a possible matchup against Wichita State!

DixieZag
02-10-2014, 01:30 AM
Ill take the 8 or 9 seed with a possible matchup against Wichita State!

Sign me up, right now for that scenario. We could take our chance with an overrated BCS school (hey, they don't call us 32 for nothin' baby) and then stare down a Wichita State team that hasn't played a good quality schedule, either. Plus, one has to think that they'd gulp a little about having to face us pissed off, even minus, KO, EH, MH

And the committee just loves being cute that way, too.

TravelinZag
02-10-2014, 03:56 AM
Sign me up, right now for that scenario. We could take our chance with an overrated BCS school (hey, they don't call us 32 for nothin' baby) and then stare down a Wichita State team that hasn't played a good quality schedule, either. Plus, one has to think that they'd gulp a little about having to face us pissed off, even minus, KO, EH, MH

And the committee just loves being cute that way, too.

Dixie, you are absolutely correct that the NCAA "committee just loves being cute." Wichita State is a fine team; they're no fluke. Wouldn't mind if we have to wait a year for a rematch; perhaps a home-and home beginning next year? Like Memphis, an example of prime mid-major OOC foes which combined with some BCS opponents and preseason tourneys result in excellent schedule. This is particularly true when (like this year) the rest of the slate mostly avoids bottom-feeders in favor of solid, mid-range RPI teams.

bartruff1
02-10-2014, 04:23 AM
Win regular season.
Make to tourney final.

That gets the guys in the dance again. 2 or 3 more losses are okay.

Yup...they are playing for the same things they were before the Memphis game... if you are in the Tourney, most anything can happen...that is why they call it March Madness.

Zagger
02-10-2014, 05:09 AM
Yes. They will make march. If they won out, and had record of 29-4....4 or 5 seed in spokane.

:adored:

JAGzag
02-10-2014, 10:49 AM
Okay, I'll play the other card ... slow season, no qualities wins, talk of being on the bubble ... this will be the year we squeak another Sweet 16 season. Why? B/c no one expects it.

jbslicer
02-10-2014, 11:19 AM
They need to win two at home this week. Then two of four on the road and make WCC final. Anything less could mean a home game in the NIT.

Zags11
02-10-2014, 12:48 PM
Checked my magic 8ball......we go 8-0. We sit at 28-5 and win our wcc tournament.....5 seed in spokane. We win both to make sw16, then win again for e8. Lose that game but this team is remembered forever....if my 8ball is lying im done with it. Lol

ZagaZags
02-10-2014, 12:59 PM
Checked my magic 8ball......we go 8-0. We sit at 28-5 and win our wcc tournament.....5 seed in spokane. We win both to make sw16, then win again for e8. Lose that game but this team is remembered forever....if my 8ball is lying im done with it. Lol

I see what you did there. ;)

gonzagafan62
02-10-2014, 01:27 PM
Well if we take care of business this week we just played into the WCC Regular Season Championship. I think that's pretty reasonable goal. But one game at a time now, Pepperdine on Thursday. Go Zags!

Zags11
02-10-2014, 03:06 PM
I see what you did there. ;)

Lol

whatazag
02-10-2014, 04:10 PM
Just gotta make the tourney. Think we can lose a couple more games and make it, but anyone thinking of single digit seeds is kidding themselves. As it stands, our best win and only top 50 RPI win is BYU at home. Committee doesn't hand out good seeds to teams with 1 top 50 win, regardless of whether we end up with an RPI in the 20s ourselves. That said, won't hurt my feelings if we get a 10 or 11 seed, Zags are capable of beating 6/7 seeds, and from there, who knows.

Edit: Ha, just saw CDC's post in the other thread about us getting a 2 seed in '04 when we only had 1 top 50 win. I guess I stand corrected there. Still, personally would rather have a 10-11 seed than 8-9.

75Zag
02-10-2014, 05:35 PM
I do not believe that the Bulldogs are a bubble team. That said, I suspect the Bulldogs will get an 8 seed somewhere far away from Spokane. St. Louis is 1800 miles from the Inland Empire and I am feeling the vibe that GU will end up there. My #2 vibe is that the Bulldogs play in Texas, which is bad because all my ex's live in Texas.

St. Louis is a twenty-seven hour car trip from Spokane and you are there.

Go Bulldogs!

CDC84
02-10-2014, 05:58 PM
Ill take the 8 or 9 seed with a possible matchup against Wichita State!

Especially a WSU team that's undefeated going into the NCAA tournament, which is probably going to happen. The best team remaining on WSU's regular season sked is RayG's Drake team. Drake is 12-12, and the game is at WSU. The MVC tournament will be held at a neutral site in St. Louis, so the Shockers won't play on somebody else's home floor.

That's one case where I might take the 8 or 9, because WSU will be ripe for an upset. They are a fantastic team, but they are not the 1991 UNLV team.


Still, personally would rather have a 10-11 seed than 8-9.

An 11 seed is one of the best seeds you can get in the tournament if you're a really good team that's been given too low of a seed. You play the six in the first round, and if you get by them, there is almost always a number three that is vastly overrated. If you get by the three, you head to the sweet 16 and don't have to face the one seed until the elite 8.

In most instances, you want to avoid the one seed for as long as possible. You want that team to have as many opportunities to get upset as possible. Also, it enhances your chances of advancing further.

CaliforniaZaggin'
02-11-2014, 02:56 PM
They're playing for Sam, David and Drew. Each have given so much to this program, particularly Sam and David, that they deserve to go out on a high note.