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View Full Version : Gonzaga vs Memphis...predictions and other thoughts



Reborn
02-06-2014, 10:47 AM
Gonzaga 77
Memphis 72

Yes, I am predicting a Gonzaga victory. I am not bothered by our poor effort at times in the second half last night. And as I said earlier in another thread, in some ways the Portland game will help prepare us for Memphis Saturday. So much of basketball is about focus, and it's easy to see who it was a little hard for the Zags to maintain focus last night with the Memphis game coming up. If you don't think the players are looking forward, or looking ahead to Memphis, then you need to take a look at your thinking. The Memphis is going to be the Biggest game of the year, at least until we play in the NCAA tournament. I'm sure they were looking ahead, and they did what the needed to do last night to win. I am sure the Zags will be at their best on Saturday.

The Zags can now give their full attention to Memphis. And I believe the Zags match up pretty well with Memphis. First Memphis, overall this season, they have not been a good 3 pt shooting team. They are 206th in the country where as GU is 3rd. Portland is 16th. Their overall shooting % is pretty good, shooting .48 a game (18th in the country). Gonzaga is 3rd in the nation at .503. I feel GU does better against teams who do not kill us from beyond the 3 pt line. Memphis is also a very poor foul shooting team, shooting .65 per game (312th in country). Gonzaga is shooting .71 (111th in nation). Memphis has shot 546 free throws, Gu has shot 518. One thing that is important is that Memphis strength of schedule is 43 and GU's is 100.

I took a look at the last ten games and Memphis is giving up 69.8 ppg and GU is giving up 63.0 ppg. However once again the strength of schedule does matter. Memphis has two wins over teams in the top 50 RPI and GU has one. Memphis has 5 losses to teams in top 50 and GU 1 (Kansas State). Memphis' worse loss is to @ SMU with an RPi around 45 (very similar to BYU). GU has two losses to teams ranked above (Dayton and Portland) and Memphis has none.

Memphis does not have what I would call tall guards, and especially tall shooting guards. The two top shooting guards are both 6' 1". They have two guards who are 6' 3" and 6' 4" tall who average around 9 ppg. Zags have a much tougher time with taller guards in the 6' 4", 6' 5" range. Memphis' two post players are 6' 9" and 6' 8" tall. They block 5 shots per game vs GU's 4.

This will be a great game. It should be pretty much like a second round (round of 32) game in the NCAA tournament. So It should give us a good idea of where we are at when we match up with a top 25 team. Statistically GU matches up really well with Memphis. It should be a great game. I see absolutely NO reason to worry at all. Keep the faith, brethren.

Go Zags!!!

primal23
02-06-2014, 10:47 AM
Hope I am wrong...

GU 75
Memphis 98

Goshzagit
02-06-2014, 11:14 AM
in all honesty...

Memphis is a more athletic, better shooting, faster, & superior passing team compared Kansas St. The stats suggest the same.

We struggled mightily with K-State's athleticism and toughness around the rim and in transition.

Given Coach Few's odd lineups, even starters, when others are much more effective yet under-utilized, we lose big.

We lost to K-State by 10.

I think we lose to Memphis by 20.

Zags 64
Tigers 84

ps. Memphis hasn't suffered a single bad loss. They've also beaten a couple Top-15/Top-10 teams this season. Yes, they lost to 18-5 SMU last week, yet that is Larry Brown's SMU team which features several Top-100 guys as well. Also, they lost on a last-second shot to #3 Florida. Beat Okie St, Louisville AT Louisville, et al.

aflac4life
02-06-2014, 11:56 AM
Few didn't play KD much last night because he knows he needs him 30+ minutes on Saturday. If KD or DB can score 20+ I think we might win. I would start GB, KD, DB, SD, PK and have Kevin be the energy guy coming off the bench for short time periods. I think KP is physically hurt (more than we know) and mentally worn out, most of the shots he missed last night didn't clear the front of the rim. Zags 65 Tigers 64

exclusivelee
02-06-2014, 12:21 PM
Few didn't play KD much last night because he knows he needs him 30+ minutes on Saturday.

Draino played his least amount of minutes since Maui (14 min vs Dayton) and that was the last time he played under 21 minutes

The only justification I have for that is this:

http://www.spokesman.com/zags/stories/2014/feb/03/zag-dranginis-shows-no-weakness-court/


Dranginis’ dogged pursuit of rebounds led to a collision with teammate Przemek Karnowski on Saturday. Karnowski needed post-game stitches for a cut under his left eye.

“I felt pretty bad,” Dranginis said. “My elbow was pretty sore; I couldn’t even straight it (Sunday), but it’s all right now. He definitely got the worst end of it.”

Maybe his elbow was still bothering him after all?

It's not like Draino doesnt have the conditioning to play long stretches of time:

1/2 vs St. Mary's: 32 min
1/4 vs Pacific: 38 min
1/16 @ Pepperdine: 34 min
1/18 @ LMU: 37 min

In a game where we were getting outworked on the boards, why didn't we have Draino out there more to fly around to secure some rebounds?

gomemphistigers1
02-06-2014, 12:49 PM
everyone talks about the guards at Memphis...I think the game will come down to our front court v. Gonzaga's front court.

it's Shaq Goodwin, Austin Nichols, and David Pellom v. your guys

cjm720
02-06-2014, 02:03 PM
I think we can win against any team, but the toe-factor and being on the road doesn't provide a ton of comfort. That said, I have a hunch we're going to bomb away from 3 land and have success like we haven't seen behind the arc on the road.

Zags 69
Tigers 68

wnczagfan
02-06-2014, 02:56 PM
My prediction story:

The game starts off with a tip to Kevin Pangos, who valiantly limps down the court for a layup before falling down untouched. The referees, thinking he must have been fouled, give him an "and one", and the Zags take an early 3-0 lead.

Then Memphis turns the ball over several times passing to their "teammate" Drew Barham, before Barham himself turns the ball over for traveling (by the way, it's called "walking" in Memphis).

Later, David Stockton perfects a new bounce pass through the legs of the referees, effectively using them as a screen. The referees, showboats that they are, work to get into position for David's future bounce passes. With the Zags now essentially playing 8 on 5, they run away with the game.

Zags 65

Tigers 59

P.S. After the game, Josh Pastner decides to chest bump Mark Few in the handshake line, but Mark isn't paying attention and hence gets hit in the face by Pastner's chest. Sports Center later features a clip of Few getting "Pastnerized."

GoTigersGo
02-06-2014, 03:12 PM
My prediction story:

The game starts off with a tip to Kevin Pangos, who valiantly limps down the court for a layup before falling down untouched. The referees, thinking he must have been fouled, give him an "and one", and the Zags take an early 3-0 lead.

Then Memphis turns the ball over several times passing to their "teammate" Drew Barham, before Barham himself turns the ball over for traveling (by the way, it's called "walking" in Memphis).

Later, David Stockton perfects a new bounce pass through the legs of the referees, effectively using them as a screen. The referees, showboats that they are, work to get into position for David's future bounce passes. With the Zags now essentially playing 8 on 5, they run away with the game.

Zags 65

Tigers 59

P.S. After the game, Josh Pastner decides to chest bump Mark Few in the handshake line, but Mark isn't paying attention and hence gets hit in the face by Pastner's chest. Sports Center later features a clip of Few getting "Pastnerized."

HAHAHA!!! That's awesome!

SteelZag
02-06-2014, 03:20 PM
I think we can win against any team, but the toe-factor and being on the road doesn't provide a ton of comfort. That said, I have a hunch we're going to bomb away from 3 land and have success like we haven't seen behind the arc on the road.

Zags 69
Tigers 68

Few somehow stumbles upon ESPN mbb stats and notices Zags 3rd in 3pt shooting. Helping kids with homework, notices 3>2 on a paper and a light comes on and immediately calls team meeting. Gathered together in Kennel he proudly announces "Hey, why not us?" And a new era starts as ZAGS RULE!

titopoet
02-06-2014, 03:31 PM
Yuppers. This game will be which teams bigs play... well Big.

Zags11
02-06-2014, 03:39 PM
Memphis 78
zags 67

dower with 18

Reborn
02-06-2014, 04:53 PM
I'm feeling we're going to see some really good stuff from Pangos, Bell and Stockton Saturday. These guys usually really step up when it's needed. Like most of us fans, they have been waiting for this game for a long time. I think this game means alot more to Gonzaga then it does to Memphis.

I think the pace of the game will be pretty important. Both teams have good defenses but can also score; so I'm expecting a game in the 70's. Is it going to be another nail biter? Heck yes!!!! Better get ready for another one.

Go Zags!!!

BTB
02-06-2014, 05:29 PM
My prediction story:

The game starts off with a tip to Kevin Pangos, who valiantly limps down the court for a layup before falling down untouched. The referees, thinking he must have been fouled, give him an "and one", and the Zags take an early 3-0 lead.

Then Memphis turns the ball over several times passing to their "teammate" Drew Barham, before Barham himself turns the ball over for traveling (by the way, it's called "walking" in Memphis).

Later, David Stockton perfects a new bounce pass through the legs of the referees, effectively using them as a screen. The referees, showboats that they are, work to get into position for David's future bounce passes. With the Zags now essentially playing 8 on 5, they run away with the game.

Zags 65

Tigers 59

P.S. After the game, Josh Pastner decides to chest bump Mark Few in the handshake line, but Mark isn't paying attention and hence gets hit in the face by Pastner's chest. Sports Center later features a clip of Few getting "Pastnerized."

Getting lots of love on the Memphis love for this post hahaha and for good reason!



I'm feeling we're going to see some really good stuff from Pangos, Bell and Stockton Saturday. These guys usually really step up when it's needed. Like most of us fans, they have been waiting for this game for a long time. I think this game means alot more to Gonzaga then it does to Memphis.

I think the pace of the game will be pretty important. Both teams have good defenses but can also score; so I'm expecting a game in the 70's. Is it going to be another nail biter? Heck yes!!!! Better get ready for another one.

Go Zags!!!

I agree, except throw Dower on that list. I think David, Kevin, and Sam are three extremely tough LEADERS and I have 100% confidence in them. I don't know if we will get the win, but David and Kevin are two of the toughest LEADERS I have seen at Gonzaga in a while. I am positive that these three will keep the game very very close. (maybe not all three at once but at least two of them).

zag69
02-06-2014, 06:10 PM
Zags lead by 8 at the half, then sadly fall apart, forgetting what worked earlier, and lose 88-64. Sorry, but there it is.

wnczagfan
02-06-2014, 06:33 PM
GoTigersGo and BTB:

I saw my prediction story over on the Tiger's fan board. That was fun to see! Thanks!

GoTigersGo
02-06-2014, 06:59 PM
GoTigersGo and BTB:

I saw my prediction story over on the Tiger's fan board. That was fun to see! Thanks!

It was hysterical. I am going to be at the game to make sure Tigers don't pass the ball to Drew. LMAO.

jpn17
02-06-2014, 07:18 PM
I'm not going to make a score prediction, but the way Gonzaga has been playing recently, I have a really hard time seeing them winning this game. I really hope they prove me wrong on that. It's one thing to struggle with teams in this conference on the road. I made a post on here after the West Virginia victory about how I feel most people really don't have an appreciation for just how tough it is to go on the road in college basketball and win. So to see Gonzaga struggle at home against bottom half of the conference teams (Portland and San Diego) is pretty discouraging. Obviously things change so much from game to game that it's impossible to say that Gonzaga struggled against X so there's no way they'll beat Y, but one commonality in all the games is that they'll have stretches of brilliance followed by stretches of ineptitude. Lately the bad minutes seem to be outnumbering the good and against a team like Memphis that's not going to get it done. Gonzaga has the guys and the talent to go into Memphis and win. There is zero doubt about that. But to do it they have to play 40 minutes of smart, efficient and almost error free basketball. And their recent performances don't give me confidence that they can do it. Like I said I hope they prove me wrong. I'll be rooting hard regardless.

gamagin
02-06-2014, 08:13 PM
We beat them if we play like we have before. with confidence and teamwork, hungry and opportunistic.

we've done it before. we can do it again.

DO IT

BaldguyZag
02-06-2014, 08:23 PM
Zags 75
Tigers 73

Barham hits a three from the corner with .07 seconds left after a back and forth game. Memphis will have a double digit lead early in the second Half, but GU grinds away at the lead with stellar front court play by Karno, Dower and Nunez sprinkled with a couple very timely Pangos threes before Drew drops the trey to seal the deal. It's all about matching Memphis' intensity throughout. Bell and Coleman come through with huge defensive efforts against the Tiger backcourt.

TheGonzagaFactor
02-06-2014, 08:38 PM
I think we are better than Memphis. When I've watched them they will look like 2008 Memphis for a few minutes, but go on huge scoring droughts. I know we go cold at times too, but Memphis is just as bad so I think we could beat them on a neutral court. We are more consistent. Seeing as the game is in their NBA arena which will have close to 20,000 of their fans, I will not be disappointed if we lose. I'll watch the game and expect the Zags to stay in the game and maybe win it, but I'm not predicting them to win. I think Memphis will beat us by 7-10 points one way or another because we haven't seen their level of speed and perimeter athleticism very much this year (if at all) and this game will be in the toughest environment we have played in all year. It would be a colossal win for us so I'm hoping the Zags rise to the challenge. We can do this. GO ZAGS!!

ZAGLAWQB
02-07-2014, 12:25 AM
81-59 loss.

A tournament berth and 1 win would be fantastic.

kitzbuel
02-07-2014, 02:46 AM
This is a game that I think Karno can have a positive impact in. He can control the paint on the defensive end and reduce Memphis to a perimeter team. GBJ and Draino should be able to effectively challenge on the perimeter. The Zags have done that before against SMC and BYU.

The Tigers could have a very difficult time defending Karno and Sam, too. A big question is Pangos' injury, but if we can get him, GBJ, or even Barham unleashed from outside, Memphis is going to be struggling with help defense in the middle.

If we get any decent guard play at all, it will be a close game and the Zags will have a chance.

Reborn
02-07-2014, 04:04 AM
I agree, except throw Dower on that list. I think David, Kevin, and Sam are three extremely tough LEADERS and I have 100% confidence in them. I don't know if we will get the win, but David and Kevin are two of the toughest LEADERS I have seen at Gonzaga in a while. I am positive that these three will keep the game very very close. (maybe not all three at once but at least two of them).

So true. Sam has been playing such great and consistent basketball since he came back from his injury. He is a tough match-up. He really has led the Zags offensively. Sam will be challenged by the physical toughness of Memphis. Saturday will be his opportunity to show that he can play against one of the tougher teams in the country. And I believe he will. I think he is ready to take that next step.

Reborn
02-07-2014, 04:13 AM
We beat them if we play like we have before. with confidence and teamwork, hungry and opportunistic.

we've done it before. we can do it again.

DO IT

Great post. I'd like to add a little to it. We will need to be tough, smart and follow the game plan. I believe that a lot of people don't realize how tough this Gonzaga team is. You just don't get to 21-3 without being all these things that we list here, and certainly toughness is included. Memphis possesses these same qualities so this will be a contest of two very good teams fighting it out.

TexasZagFan
02-07-2014, 04:41 AM
I predict there will be at least two rowdy Zag fans in attendance. We'll do our best to be heard from the nose bleed section.

I'm still working on my son to matriculate at my alma mater. I'll just say it's a work in progress, though he still bleeds burnt orange, instead of Bulldog Blue.

I'm looking forward to the Zags playing well at Memphis. This is a veteran team that doesn't back down.

gonzagafan62
02-07-2014, 06:38 AM
Memphis 79
Gonzaga 69

Hope I am wrong.

stevet75
02-07-2014, 06:44 AM
Shem's parents surprisingly show up in Memphis and consequently Shem has a monster game. The rest of the team is inspired by the big guy and they go on to win it 85-77.
Seriously, I think the Zags have a better chance than most of you do. I do think the Zags have a good chance to win.

Baseline
02-07-2014, 07:01 AM
GU 79
Memphis 75

The outcome will greatly depend on which 3 point shooting team shows up, the guys rated highly or the ones that can't hit the basket. We will know very early.

The second big decider will be if Shem can dominate the middle. He will be playing against some athletic bigs he doesn't get to every day. If he holds his own or dominates we stay close.

bballbeachbum
02-07-2014, 07:06 AM
GU 79
Memphis 75

The outcome will greatly depend on which 3 point shooting team shows up, the guys rated highly or the ones that can't hit the basket. We will know very early.

The second big decider will be if Shem can dominate the middle. He will be playing against some athletic bigs he doesn't get to every day. If he holds his own or dominates we stay close.

+1 Sam needs to have a big scoring game too imo

Zagtana
02-07-2014, 06:00 PM
Six seconds left, Zags down by two, 73-71. Barham launches a shot from mid-court. SWISH. Buzzer sounds. Zags win 74-73. Sweet!

Zagceo
02-08-2014, 07:51 AM
PLAY ANGRY!

Reborn
02-08-2014, 08:25 AM
It's game day, and I'm watching College Game Day on ESPN. I must have missed the stuff on Mark Few (dang it). Today is a great day as the Zags meet the Tigers in Memphis, Tennessee. We've been waiting for this game for a long time. Honestly, I have thought very little about next year's Zag team. I really like this one. These guys say so much about what I have always loved about GU basketball. They are overachievers, and very tough. And they ARE winners. If there has ever been a team that has dealt with adversity well, it's this team, and I think many basketball fans are going to be surprised tonight.

Memphis is the favored team, and they should be as the game is being played on their home court. Other than that I see two teams who are about as close to each other as two teams can be.

Go Zags!!!

Bkzag
02-08-2014, 09:20 AM
It would be nice to have a Zag's win BUT realistically, I think we win 2 of 8 from them in this venue. It is really difficult to win on the road, not saying it can't be done but we have to play a near perfect game and KP, GBJ, KD and DB must make 8 of 20 threes, which will open the block for PK and SD. Yes, we MUST rebound on the defensive end and our bigs must not get into foul trouble in the 1st half - allowing them to play more loosely in the second half.

Just my opinion....GO ZAGS BEAT TIGERS!

Zagger
02-08-2014, 09:28 AM
I really think this is the defining (good wise) game for the rest of the Zag's season. Zags 80 - Memphis 65.
Each non-starting Zag is improving. That means a better game all around IF the starters are fired up (and if there's a game to get fired up about it is today's game). There is no reason for these Zags to be shy about shooting - their % is just too high to waist. A key is getting open. Memphis may be an OK D team but can they defend against 10 Zags? Another key is Few. I feel the team is ready for a solid performance and a solid win. It'll take Few to orchestrate the outcome with the team he has. Few doesn't have an 80+% win record for nothing. Lastly, methinks the Tigers will be surprised by the level of play the Zags bring. I just don't think Memphis will be able to catch up in the 2nd half and will get into turnover and foul trouble trying.
Go Zags! Kick Tiger butt!

Zagceo
02-08-2014, 09:33 AM
I predict there will be at least two rowdy Zag fans in attendance. We'll do our best to be heard from the nose bleed section.

I'm still working on my son to matriculate at my alma mater. I'll just say it's a work in progress, though he still bleeds burnt orange, instead of Bulldog Blue.

I'm looking forward to the Zags playing well at Memphis. This is a veteran team that doesn't back down.

Please give us some inside updates if you can.

RenoZag
02-08-2014, 09:42 AM
Tigers - 82
Bulldogs - 70

DADoZAG
02-08-2014, 10:17 AM
The ZAGS can definitely win this game. Of course it won't be easy.

Agree dominating the paint is the key and agree depth could be the difference. Sam's oft occurring away game offensive brilliance would be a real nice thing to see today.

Apart from that it might be Edwards and his fouls that spell Karn to allow Beastmode to travel to Memphis. Nunez and even Meikle can make a big difference in how this all plays out.

A "No points in the paint on my watch" mentality will win this game.

Guards need to be secure with the ball, nothing fancy. "Shoot when your hot, shoot to get hot."

Length will be required on D and stick to the rotations with KD and GBJ trading off the perimeter spot light.

Finish strong at the rim, be safe with the ball but make that extra pass.

ZAGS have what it takes and win it at the line, 79-71.

Go ZAGS!

DixieZag
02-08-2014, 10:32 AM
I would be very surprised if we win this game.

Only good thing is that this team has surprised me already - - I thought SMC had an excellent chance of beating us at home - we blew their doors off.

Still:

Mephis 82
GU 75

Worthington
02-08-2014, 11:23 AM
Only way that we win this game is if our guards are hitting from the outside. I don't think that we're going to win, but I also don't want to make a score prediction...I really hope that the Zags prove me wrong this game, just haven't seen much out of them the last couple games.

Zagger
02-08-2014, 11:40 AM
Ah come on, the Zags are good. Not many teams are 21-3! The team is better than they were when they lost the 3 games they lost. Memphis has lost 5 games. Sure, they're likely better too. But, we're talking college basketball. From what I've seen watching each Zag game is that when they don't do well it is all about focus/concentration. Coach will have them READY. The Zags have played in rough/loud venues this year already. I honestly don't think Memphis has a chance to win the game against this Zag bunch and in this game. The Zags are going to win this thing.

gozags09
02-08-2014, 11:54 AM
Zags 79 Tigers 67. We have less than 10 turnovers; Karno, Draino, Barham, Dower and Nunez control the D boards; GB hunts his shot like never before; and, Pangos guts thru his injury like the warrior he is for an 18 & 7 night.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

gu03alum
02-08-2014, 12:16 PM
I predict there will be at least two rowdy Zag fans in attendance. We'll do our best to be heard from the nose bleed section.

I'm still working on my son to matriculate at my alma mater. I'll just say it's a work in progress, though he still bleeds burnt orange, instead of Bulldog Blue.

I'm looking forward to the Zags playing well at Memphis. This is a veteran team that doesn't back down.

Have fun and I hope your son changes his mind tonight. I know I did when I watched Gonzaga take on UW with my dad in 98 or 97.

ETA

Gonzaga wins by 5

Zippyzaggy
02-08-2014, 02:40 PM
Our guards are better deep shooters, our post players are bigger and better, plus we shoot a higher % from the free throw line...by a lot.

RELAX...we got this!

Zags by 15+

Zagceo
02-08-2014, 03:05 PM
Our guards are better deep shooters, our post players are bigger and better, plus we shoot a higher % from the free throw line...by a lot.

RELAX...we got this!

Zags by 15+

I would love it if Few gave this speech just before the game! Just loosen up everybody for 1 second!

Reborn
02-08-2014, 05:02 PM
I'm excited to see how PK does tonight. He has had a tough time the last couple days, well even more than that because of the flu. Zags will really need him to play a very good game tonight. I also hoping that #4 Kevin Pongos can have a great game tonight. As BZ says, The Zags will go as far as the "turf toe" takes them.