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View Full Version : The last time we were 20-3



caduceus
02-02-2014, 01:06 AM
Here's a little something for perspective.

On February 7, 2006, the Gonzaga Bulldogs were 20-3. At that time, the team's strength of schedule was #84. They also carried an AP rank of #5 and an RPI of #16.

On February 1, 2014 the Gonzaga Bulldogs are 20-3. Currently, their strength of schedule is #90. Sadly, they are unranked, as the quality wins are not there this year (and there's that Portland loss).

You might recall that 2005-06 team, the one that barely lost to UConn in Lahaina, barely lost to UW in their house, and lost on the road in Memphis. They ran the table in the WCC. Their final SOS was #116. They earned a #3 seed in the tourney and sadly, the season ended with Ammo on the floor in tears after being inches away from another Elite 8 (sorry to un-bury that memory again).


Comparing these two teams and schedules are mostly like apples and oranges. The 2005-06 team hands down was better. But this year's team's SOS is, surprisingly, expected to be around #94, some 20 spots better than in 2005-06. With the very tough task of running the remaining slate with wins, expected RPI would be around #12, which is actually the same as the 2005-06 team. Another loss, and RPI is around 15; two losses, still top 20.

Beat Memphis next week, and keep accumulating WCC wins, and this year's team might end up with a surprisingly decent seed. I don't see us getting to March unscathed, but I thought it was quite interesting to find out that this team has the same record as the 2005-06 team at this point in the season with (on average) a similar strength of schedule.

Rangerzag
02-02-2014, 01:13 AM
20014??

caduceus
02-02-2014, 01:19 AM
20014??
http://i.imgur.com/Rr5rsn3.gif
You'd think I'd get the date right by February first. Thx (and corrected).

ZagaZags
02-02-2014, 09:36 PM
30 wins can be done this season.

Oregonzagnut
02-02-2014, 11:28 PM
Maybe it is true that "going under the radar" is a variable for success in March, but when we are outside the top 25 it is harder to get decent stories, video and you definitely get less media coverage. I like being perpetually Top 25 and I think it matters, even if it is just in the back of peoples mind. But the reality is it is because it is always right in front of their eyes. Maybe it is ego or maybe it makes it easier to get an at large, but being in the Top 25 is better for Gonzaga and future recruiting than not being in it.

The fact we were ranked #5 with such a similar record and SOS goes to show how timing is everything, just as it was in our rise to #1 last year. either that or how bad the Portland loss was. But at 20-3 we are #6 for winning %.

ZagaZags
02-02-2014, 11:47 PM
Maybe it is true that "going under the radar" is a variable for success in March, but when we are outside the top 25 it is harder to get decent stories, video and you definitely get less media coverage. I like being perpetually Top 25 and I think it matters, even if it is just in the back of peoples mind. But the reality is it is because it is always right in front of their eyes. Maybe it is ego or maybe it makes it easier to get an at large, but being in the Top 25 is better for Gonzaga and future recruiting than not being in it.

The fact we were ranked #5 with such a similar record goes to show how timing is everything just as it was in our rise to #1 last year. either that or how bad the Portland loss was.

The Zags will be back in the Top 25 tomorrow.

ZagaZags
02-03-2014, 03:27 PM
The Zags will be back in the Top 25 tomorrow.

29-5 is coming. What seed would you all give the Zags with a 29-5 record?

gonstu
02-03-2014, 03:34 PM
29-5 is coming. What seed would you all give the Zags with a 29-5 record?

6 seed

ZagaZags
02-03-2014, 09:08 PM
6 seed

6 seed sounds about right. I will hope for a 5 seed.

jpn17
02-03-2014, 11:24 PM
Gonzaga getting placed in Spokane would be much more important than which seed they get IMO.

ZagaZags
02-03-2014, 11:33 PM
Gonzaga getting placed in Spokane would be much more important than which seed they get IMO.

+1
I would take a lower seed to be in Spokane.

AK457
02-04-2014, 05:09 PM
I don't have the data in front of me, but what I think is going on is that our strength of schedule has improved from the bottom (e.g., the worst teams we play are ranked on average ~#150 this year when before it was ~#200). This is problematic because the expectation for us to beat an RPI #250 team is essentially the same as an RPI #150 team. If someone is feeling motivated, some histograms of our opponents' RPI over the last 10 years or so might clear this up.

caduceus
02-04-2014, 06:12 PM
I don't have the data in front of me, but what I think is going on is that our strength of schedule has improved from the bottom (e.g., the worst teams we play are ranked on average ~#150 this year when before it was ~#200). This is problematic because the expectation for us to beat an RPI #250 team is essentially the same as an RPI #150 team. If someone is feeling motivated, some histograms of our opponents' RPI over the last 10 years or so might clear this up.

Oh, no question. Didn't spend too much time on it, but looking at the 2005-06 team, average RPI of opponents for the regular season:


Count: 28
Sum: 3857
Mean: 137.75
Median: 143
Minimum: 3
Maximum: 301
Standard Deviation: 79.82

Compare to this season (including future games with future opponents' current RPIs):


Count: 30
Sum: 3462
Mean: 115.4
Median: 113
Minimum: 21
Maximum: 272
Standard Deviation: 60.92

Which confirms your hypothesis. We played fewer bottom feeders.

So, on the bad side, fewer high quality wins for the resume. On the good side, a still favorable RPI, and a SOS that is comparable to 2005-06 team. Seeding will surely depend on how this year's committee weighs RPI and SOS against quality of wins/losses.

maynard g krebs
02-04-2014, 07:08 PM
Gonzaga getting placed in Spokane would be much more important than which seed they get IMO.

It would be pretty shocking if the Zags got a pair of home games without a protected seed. And quite unfair to a team that earned a better seed to have to play a road game in Spokane. Really unlikely scenario, to put it mildly, especially given the commitee's usual treatment of the Zags.

Jakester425
02-05-2014, 07:28 AM
It would be pretty shocking if the Zags got a pair of home games without a protected seed. And quite unfair to a team that earned a better seed to have to play a road game in Spokane. Really unlikely scenario, to put it mildly, especially given the commitee's usual treatment of the Zags.

"cough" Davidson "cough"

gonstu
02-05-2014, 09:12 AM
As I look at Lunardi's bracket for a ballpark estimate: There are so few teams from the West projected in top 4 lines right now (Zona, SDSU), even if you expand to his top 8 projected lines that only adds Zags, UCLA - will that work for or against zags in terms of where they get placed (both seed & location)?

I could see it going either way.

Getting excited now that the superbowl is over and college bb is king. Don't think zags are a lock for tourney yet, but getting close. Win next 3 home games and I think we are good.

ZagaZags
02-05-2014, 12:01 PM
"cough" Davidson "cough"

I was thinking the same.

titopoet
02-05-2014, 12:24 PM
It would be pretty shocking if the Zags got a pair of home games without a protected seed. And quite unfair to a team that earned a better seed to have to play a road game in Spokane. Really unlikely scenario, to put it mildly, especially given the commitee's usual treatment of the Zags.

Talk to GU about the Davidson game.

caduceus
02-05-2014, 09:54 PM
Zags RPI would be 13 if we had beaten Kansas St.

Zags RPI would be 13 if we had beaten Dayton (though likely even higher since we wouldn't have played Chaminade).

Zags RPI would be 15 if we had beaten Portland the first time around.


You can play around with RPI "what ifs" here (http://www.rpiforecast.com/wizard/Gonzaga.html)...it's pretty cool.

maynard g krebs
02-05-2014, 10:48 PM
Talk to GU about the Davidson game.

More like the Zags playing Minnesota/Stanford in Seattle as a 10. Home state, not home town. I just don't think the committee gives the Zags Spokane w/o a protected seed. Would love to be wrong.