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View Full Version : KP Career Shooting Statistics Analysis | Kennel vs. Away/Neutral



Gozags99
01-30-2014, 09:00 AM
Kevin is one of my all-time favorite Zags. His career record as a Zag is 77-13 (86%), which is simply amazing. His career shooting percentages are outstanding, especially from 3pt and the FT line.

There are many interesting observations, however, from the following table (I'm struggling to attached the image of the table - help would be appreciated!). I ran this game-log analysis thinking that his away/neutral stats were going to look bad. In reality, they are about average for a guard. What stands out is how GOOD his stats are in the Kennel and how comfortable he is at home. Shooting with a familiar backdrop makes a big difference for KP. Does the team practice in multiple locations on campus?

For his GU career-to-date, KP has shot 13, 8, 16, and 10 percentage points higher in the Kennel for FG%, 2pt FG%, 3pt FG%, and FT%, respectively. True away games are worse than neutral games.

Comparing KPs shooting stats between his 13 losses and 77 wins shows that he has shot 12, 5, 17, and 1 percentage points lower in games resulting in loss (FG%, 2pt FG%, 3pt FG%, and FT%, respectively)

It is obvious that most college basketball players probably shoot higher percentages at home, however, these differences are somewhat startling. Your thoughts and observations?

Gozags!

http://i1312.photobucket.com/albums/t523/Gozags1999/KPShooting-AllSeasons_zpsdb2cb513.jpg

http://i1312.photobucket.com/albums/t523/Gozags1999/KPShooting-JuniorSeason_zps7c64bfd2.jpg

http://i1312.photobucket.com/albums/t523/Gozags1999/KPShooting-SophomoreSeason_zps7fa0c467.jpg

http://i1312.photobucket.com/albums/t523/Gozags1999/KPShooting-FreshmanSeason_zps1564071e.jpg

cjm720
01-30-2014, 09:39 AM
Confirms perception.

I wonder if those stats would hold true for other guards on the team and other guards across the nation. I'm guessing it'd be close (maybe not for Bell though).

MTZag03
01-30-2014, 10:30 AM
Hire a sports psychologist. Imagine what this team could be if KP was the same on the road as at home, and if Karno played consistently. It is not a talent problem, it's mental.

CdAZagFan
01-30-2014, 11:49 AM
It seems that other teams with a shooter as good as Pangos spend much more time during the game setting multiple (double and even triple) screens to get their shooter open. I don't know if this team focuses as much on that. I think GU should concentrate on getting the big guys touches early, but also focus on getting Pangos some clean looks early to get him going - then let all the other pieces fall into place - especially on the road.

BTW - I love that play they ran last night with PK getting the ball at the free throw line and then they backscreen for a cutting guard to the basket. Last night it was Bell with a wide open layup. A couple of games ago, I think they ran the same play for either Pangos or Stockton... Great play (and nice passes for the big guy)!

WBM
01-30-2014, 12:03 PM
It seems that other teams with a shooter as good as Pangos spend much more time during the game setting multiple (double and even triple) screens to get their shooter open. I don't know if this team focuses as much on that.

Interesting point. On 1510 just before tipoff, Few mentioned how Santa Clara would often run up to 6-7 screens in a single possession to get their guys open. He was speaking about that as a challenge to our defense, only. It'd be interesting to see how often we run multiple screens in a play. I'll have to pay closer attention!

Vanzagger
01-30-2014, 12:20 PM
I think he is the Nation's best point guard. We all know he can shoot.

JPtheBeasta
01-30-2014, 03:21 PM
It may not translate to an excellent and experienced college player, but I have to wonder, just based off of personal experience as a very average basketball player who fancies himself as somewhat of a decent shooter, if the shooting backdrop affects him at all. I have certain gyms that I have always shot better in that others secondary to the lighting, depth of the wall from the backboard, and the general appearance behind the backboard. I don't know exactly why, but some rims just look bigger and closer depending on the environs.

The positive energy of the home crowd has to help, as well.

Bushman
01-30-2014, 04:05 PM
Interesting thread. I have also wondered why more plays are not specifically designed for Kevin. He took zero 3's last night. His next lowest attempt total was 3. If I'm the coach, I would give Kevin the chance to get on track. His 1 for 7 shooting was poor although some were tough layups. You cannot tell me that we have no designed plays to free Kevin, or any other hot shooting guard, to shoot. Sooner or later we will need the 3 to get back into a game.

I'm not sure if he has injury issues or not but this team is much better when Kevin is more involved in the play instead of creating interior shots off a bad foot. I have faith in Kevin, I've seen him drop bunch many times. Get him INVOLVED!

EngineerZag
01-30-2014, 04:32 PM
I wonder how the numbers would look if you just look at this season isolated from his first two years? I bet it's more of a pronounced difference this season.

DixieZag
01-30-2014, 04:41 PM
Actually, the differences in numbers seem pretty high to me - maybe I don't know the average numbers among normal players. But 8-10 %pts less seems large to me.

I'd throw out everything over the last 8 games or so. There are some nights it seems obvious that his toes is looser and gets better throughout the game, there're are some night he can't move enough to get a good shot off. In reading about turf toe, the emphasis there's a lot of emphasis that it is really subject to aggravation. I wonder if some of the games where he really struggles are games following an aggravation. Dunno, and there's no way for me to know, so pointless.

bballbeachbum
01-30-2014, 04:55 PM
lots of plays and screens run for KP all year, including on what appeared to be the last three Zag possessions last night even tho he was off and struggled to shake free all game.

Dixie, I wonder about the toe and it's effect on him game to game too, like last night

Zagceo
01-30-2014, 05:23 PM
I wonder if it would be beneficial to have some shooting practices at the Spokane arena before tourney.

Get some bigger sight lines.

BTB
01-30-2014, 05:58 PM
Actually, the differences in numbers seem pretty high to me - maybe I don't know the average numbers among normal players. But 8-10 %pts less seems large to me.

I'd throw out everything over the last 8 games or so. There are some nights it seems obvious that his toes is looser and gets better throughout the game, there're are some night he can't move enough to get a good shot off. In reading about turf toe, the emphasis there's a lot of emphasis that it is really subject to aggravation. I wonder if some of the games where he really struggles are games following an aggravation. Dunno, and there's no way for me to know, so pointless.

I agree about throwing out the games since his turf toe. To be honest, the disparity been pretty obvious the last 2 years but he was playing extremely well everywhere before he hurt his toe this year. I mean, he was the best player in Maui even.

Zippyzaggy
01-30-2014, 06:08 PM
So the cause of the drop-off is between his ears?

You're sayin we can't blame it on his big toe? :mecry:

Seriously though, any stats showing a drop off from/since his injury?

roxdoc
01-30-2014, 09:06 PM
Good idea about shooting time in the Arena. Over the years the Zags have never looked all that good in the Arena. I have thought before about the backdrop or tight rims. Have gone to most of the games there and always worried about them. Yes they have won, but not looked good.

Gozags99
01-31-2014, 06:04 AM
http://i1312.photobucket.com/albums/t523/Gozags1999/KPShooting-AllSeasons_zpsdb2cb513.jpg

http://i1312.photobucket.com/albums/t523/Gozags1999/KPShooting-JuniorSeason_zps7c64bfd2.jpg

http://i1312.photobucket.com/albums/t523/Gozags1999/KPShooting-SophomoreSeason_zps7fa0c467.jpg

http://i1312.photobucket.com/albums/t523/Gozags1999/KPShooting-FreshmanSeason_zps1564071e.jpg

sittingon50
01-31-2014, 09:36 AM
Whoa, that's some serious work 99. Thanks.

Zagceo
01-31-2014, 01:57 PM
Can you break it down to show the differences between venues with soft rims and deep sight lines? Kidding ; )

Great job! It shows his improvement from 28-34-40 for 3pt at non kennel venues.

Compared to 50-50-48 for 3pt in the kennel

maynard g krebs
01-31-2014, 02:54 PM
Wow 99, that's impressive. Thanks.

NumberCruncher
01-31-2014, 03:51 PM
Great job, 99.

Here's another angle I find interesting.

Conference regular season road games.
FG% = 32.2
3FG% = 28.9

All other non-kennel venues.
FG% = 41.0
3FG% = 36.7

This could be general wearing down during the season.

BTB
01-31-2014, 04:43 PM
Can you break it down to show the differences between venues with soft rims and deep sight lines? Kidding ; )

Great job! It shows his improvement from 28-34-40 for 3pt at non kennel venues.

Compared to 50-50-48 for 3pt in the kennel

Yep, this is exactly what I take out of it as well. Shooting 40% from 3 on the road is nothing to laugh about, especially since I'm sure it was higher before his injury. He can't help it that he shoots so damn well at home!

Zippyzaggy
01-31-2014, 04:56 PM
Oh yeah? Well where does is show what Kevin had for breakfast, lunch & dinner for each and every one of those dates?! j/k

Thanks GoZags99 ...you are the man!

Zippyzaggy
01-31-2014, 05:01 PM
Great job, 99.

Here's another angle I find interesting.

Conference regular season road games.
FG% = 32.2
3FG% = 28.9

All other non-kennel venues.
FG% = 41.0
3FG% = 36.7

This could be general wearing down during the season.

It might be, but it could also suggest familiarity with Pangos by Conference foes. They see him more and game plan him.