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View Full Version : Lunardi's new brackets are out for 1/16/14



Reborn
01-16-2014, 07:33 AM
Gonzaga has dropped to a 7 seed. No surprise there.

I am not as much a believer as I used to be in the fact that seeding is important. Gamagin's post on the NCAA tournament being a crap shoot kind of convinced me that maybe seeding isn't so important. Maybe more important then seeding is who you play, the match-ups. Another very important thing is how healthy your team is. I also feel that where you play is important, and so maybe seeding is somewhat important if it gets you into a pod that is closer to your hometown. In this weeks brackets Joe Lunardi has GU playing George Washington. Personally, I like that matchup. The game would be played in St Louis. If the Zags won they'd play the #2 seed Kansas. I do not like that matchup at all. At least not in St Louis. I do think Kansas will end up a #1 Seed though. They seem to be getting better each week. Their center is now tearing it up, and we all know they have Wiggins. Gonzaga is in the West Bracket, which I like and which I hope they can stay in when the real brackets come on in March.

former1dog
01-16-2014, 09:10 AM
Gamagin's post on the NCAA tournament being a crap shoot kind of convinced me that maybe seeding isn't so important.

I didn't read Gamagin's post, but I will absolutely quarrel with the contention that the NCAA tournament is a crapshoot and that seeding isn't important.

Here's a graph of win percentage by seed for the entire tournament. What it shows is that the higher your seed, the higher your winning percentage.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/7a/NCAA_Wins-rank.png

And, if you look at just the first round, seed is even more important.

Round of 64 seed pairing results[edit (http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=NCAA_Men%27s_Division_I_Basketball _Championship&action=edit&section=53)]


http://bits.wikimedia.org/static-1.23wmf9/skins/common/images/magnify-clip.png (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:NCAA_Wins-rank.png)
NCAA Tournament % Wins per rank


Since the inception of the 64-team tournament in 1985, through 2013, each seed-pairing has played a total of 116 games, with the following results:


The #1 seed is 116–0 against the #16 seed (100%).
The #2 seed is 109–7 against the #15 seed (93.97%).
The #3 seed is 99–17 against the #14 seed (85.34%).
The #4 seed is 91–25 against the #13 seed (78.45%).
The #5 seed is 75–41 against the #12 seed (64.66%).
The #6 seed is 77–39 against the #11 seed (66.38%).
The #7 seed is 70-46 against the #10 seed (60.34%).
The #8 seed is 56–60 against the #9 seed (48.28%).

Mr Vulture
01-16-2014, 09:45 AM
I think the point that Reborn was making is that it doesn't really matter if you are a 5 thru 9 seed as much as who/where you are playing. The margin of difference is very little in 5-7 seeds and 8/9 games are basically tossups. I would like to see these numbers for the past 10 years as I think things have changed greatly in that time period and the numbers may be less skewed to the higher seed.

B Wayne
01-16-2014, 12:39 PM
Wait. What? Wichita State is #2 seed and Gonzaga #7?

According to the basketball philosopher-king posters on this board, Wichita State was extremely lucky to beat Gonzaga last year. I didn't read a single post in which one of our posters could set aside the ego and simply admit that Wichita State had more talented personnel. I think those posters have been humbled and wouldn't make that claim now.

Ekrub
01-16-2014, 12:54 PM
Wait. What? Wichita State is #2 seed and Gonzaga #7?

According to the basketball philosopher-king posters on this board, Wichita State was extremely lucky to beat Gonzaga last year. I didn't read a single post in which one of our posters could set aside the ego and simply admit that Wichita State had more talented personnel. I think those posters have been humbled and wouldn't make that claim now.

You can't compare last year to this year. Wichita state did have a very good team last year, as did we. They hit fire in that second half though, and we really missed our best perimeter defender. They weren't lucky, but we were kind of unlucky in that we drew them in the second round AND one of our best players got hurt. Them lighting it up from three was partially our teams fault but still....

77Zag
01-16-2014, 01:09 PM
It's all about the draw --

From youth soccer tournaments to the NCAA dance and most all other tournaments.

Peaking and being at the top of your game at the right time coupled with the other team not so much weighs very heavy in outcomes.

former1dog
01-16-2014, 01:09 PM
I didn't read a single post in which one of our posters could set aside the ego and simply admit that Wichita State had more talented personnel.

Because that's an incorrect assessment of reality.

Wichita State made 14 three pointers in the game, shooting 50% against us. For the year last year, Wichita State averaged 34% and made an average of just over 6 per game.

Wichita State garnered 42 points from three, accounting for 55% of their total offense in their win against GU.

In their other 3 NCAA tournament wins Wichita State made a total of 15 three pointers.

Hopefully you're getting the gist that Wichita State's performance against GU was an outlier for them. They got hot and we were missing our best perimeter defender when we needed him most. You do remember Gary Bell sat out the 2nd half of that game with injury, correct?

So, whereas I agree that Wichita State won fair and square, it was because of an outstanding and unusual shooting performance. Not due to better personnel.

Bogozags
01-16-2014, 01:53 PM
Because that's an incorrect assessment of reality.

Wichita State made 14 three pointers in the game, shooting 50% against us. For the year last year, Wichita State averaged 34% and made an average of just over 6 per game.

Wichita State garnered 42 points from three, accounting for 55% of their total offense in their win against GU.

In their other 3 NCAA tournament wins Wichita State made a total of 15 three pointers.

Hopefully you're getting the gist that Wichita State's performance against GU was an outlier for them. They got hot and we were missing our best perimeter defender when we needed him most. You do remember Gary Bell sat out the 2nd half of that game with injury, correct?

So, whereas I agree that Wichita State won fair and square, it was because of an outstanding and unusual shooting performance. Not due to better personnel.

I normally agree with you; however, can't on this issue. WSU was the better TEAM last year when they beat us. WSU made the necessary adjustments to play us. They executed their game plan perfectly and prevented us from executing ours. If we play ten times we win eight to nine BUT last year they were the better TEAM.

I also agree with gamgin in that the draw is more important than the seed.

B Wayne
01-16-2014, 01:57 PM
Ok let's talk about personnel specifically then. Here is my post last year after the game. Show me the error. Also many teams have their best 3 point shooting game against the Zags the past 3 years such that it is no longer an outlier when a team gets"hot"' from the 3 against the Zags. My post last year:


If I had to rank the Zag and Shocker starting five, Olynyk would be number one, but the next 2-4 would have to be Armistad, Hall and Early. Thereafter you could go back and forth arguing between Baker and Van Vleet vs. Pangos and Harris.

former1dog
01-16-2014, 02:00 PM
I normally agree with you; however, can't on this issue.

Its ok. I still love you.

Vanzagger
01-16-2014, 03:17 PM
Wait. What? Wichita State is #2 seed and Gonzaga #7?

According to the basketball philosopher-king posters on this board, Wichita State was extremely lucky to beat Gonzaga last year. I didn't read a single post in which one of our posters could set aside the ego and simply admit that Wichita State had more talented personnel. I think those posters have been humbled and wouldn't make that claim now.

yesterday I said Wichita State is the real deal again and I would still take our 6-10 over their 1-5. So what's your point again?

B Wayne
01-16-2014, 06:28 PM
yesterday I said Wichita State is the real deal again and I would still take our 6-10 over their 1-5. So what's your point again?

Definitely! Zags second string should be a 2 seed in the NCAA tournament! #Where'syoursponsor