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View Full Version : Pangos shooting woes???



NumberCruncher
11-15-2013, 04:40 PM
Kevin's 3 point shooting in the first two games has been the source of some consternation and conjecture here on the boards.

Granted, it's a bit of a cold spell. But it's really not that serious. Using a random number generator, I found that a 41% shooter should be expected to hit 4 or fewer out of 15 shots 16% of the time. Checking the game logs, there were at least 2 occasions where that happened last season. So it's just normal variation. If it goes on over several games, then it's a trend to worry about.

One other thing that has been posited by a few is that his shooting slump is caused by playing in the small guard lineup (also referred to using various derogatory terms for shorter people). If this were true, then it should show up in last year's stats. So I took Kevin's game log from last year and added a column for David's minutes. I threw out the five games where Kevin played the least, as these were blowouts or games where he had foul trouble. The remaining 30 games I divided into two groups by the total minutes for Kevin and David. Since one or the other or both are virtually always in, the games where their combined minutes are highest are the games where they played together the most.

In the 15 games where they played together the most, Kevin shot 37-89 for 41.6%.

In the 15 games where they played together the least, Kevin shot 34-86 for 39.5%.

Another myth busted.

Chicken Ball
11-15-2013, 05:37 PM
Great work, #cruncher. Thanks for the info.

Zagdawg
11-15-2013, 05:38 PM
Appreciate the information.

sonuvazag
11-15-2013, 05:39 PM
Its good Cruncher, but I'm disappointed you didn't go through last year's play-by-play to dissect the shots Pangos took with Stockton on the floor.

J/K.

NumberCruncher
11-15-2013, 05:52 PM
Its good Cruncher, but I'm disappointed you didn't go through last year's play-by-play to dissect the shots Pangos took with Stockton on the floor.

J/K.

LOL. Just wait, I might actually do that yet.

DixieZag
11-15-2013, 08:00 PM
LOL. Just wait, I might actually do that yet.

Certainly a fantastic effort and something worth considering. However, I am not really persuaded the myth is busted, only because historically KP has struggled more on the road than at home - most do to some extent, not to the extent that Kevin did - it got better last year than frosh year, to be sure. And that variable alone can throw off your numbers - dunno.

I think there is room to think that it is a combo between being a little out of place as a two guard - normal, and random number bad streak, as you note (bug, not a feature). Either way, I seriously doubt that anyone is truly concerned that this is indicative of much of anything except being a little cold.

No doubt it is an impressive piece of investigation on your part, definitely worth considering and much appreciated - great job.

roxdoc
11-15-2013, 09:01 PM
It really does not have as much to do with David just being in the game - it's, was Kevin playing out of his normal position (point)? Last year did Kevin always play the 2 when David was in? I don't remember.

NumberCruncher
11-15-2013, 09:08 PM
It really does not have as much to do with David just being in the game - it's, was Kevin playing out of his normal position (point)? Last year did Kevin always play the 2 when David was in? I don't remember.

Yes, when David is in he plays the point 100% of the time. Why else would he be in? When David is not in, Kevin plays the point 100% of the time. Other than garbage time, does anyone disagree with this?

roxdoc
11-15-2013, 09:10 PM
Definitely the way it is this year. Last year?

NumberCruncher
11-15-2013, 09:11 PM
Definitely the way it is this year. Last year?

Yes.

Reborn
11-16-2013, 10:59 AM
Actually Kevin started out pretty hot against Colorado St. He got in foul trouble in the first half and had to sit almost half of the first half. He never got it going again in the second half. I don't worry about Kevin being in a shooting slump. He may score 20 tonght, and hit 4 or 5 three's. He will do what is needed. There are plenty of guys who can score on this team. I would definitely say that there are not any shooting woes right now for Kevin.

bartruff1
11-16-2013, 12:44 PM
I hope he doesn't score too much tonight...he has a game to play tomorrow...