View Full Version : For Fun --RPI Rank Forecaster 2014

11-12-2013, 11:25 AM
For fun-- take a look at the RPI rank projections-- (as of end of day yesterday)

Gonzaga 12

Bryant 196
Colorado State 77 (Washington as a reference is 78)

BYU 26
St Marys 39
Memphis 30
Washington State 135
Baylor 21
Syracuse 19
New Mexico State 83
South Alabama 168
Coppin State 240
Oakland 127
Kansas State 61
San Francisco 111
Pacific 133
San Diego 148
Loyola Marymount 159
Santa Clara 171
Portland 219
Pepperdine 277

How does the RPI Forecast Work?
Basically, I take all the games that have already been completed as given and then using probabilities of winning, I simulate 10,000 separate seasons. Once I have done this, I calculate the RPI and RPI rank for each simulation. The expected RPI and RPI Rank are the sample averages from all 10,000 simulations.

Here are the steps in detail:
Update all of the wins and losses to date
Using Jeff Sagarin's "PREDICTOR", calculate the probabilities of winning for every remaining game
Draw random Wins and Losses based on these probabilities for every remaining game
Figure out the end of season RPI for every team based on the completed and simulated wins and losses
Sort the RPIs (numbers between 0 and 1) to get RPI ranks (counting numbers, 1, 2, 3, etc.)
Save the details from this one simulation
Repeat the simulation 10,000 times
Calculate the Expected RPI and Expected RPI Rank, etc., by using my 10,000 simulations


11-12-2013, 11:59 AM
Wow that is pretty neat. Did it give an average win loss prediction as well?

11-12-2013, 12:00 PM
Yes-- at the link at the bottom.

It has us at 24-5 through the end of the regular season.