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Thanks to a SSF tweet, this piece in SI by Luke Winn:
The Breakout Sophomore Formula is back for a fifth try -- the goal being to identify future stars who didn't stand out in traditional box scores as freshmen, but had tempo-free stats indicative of success.
The formula tilts more toward obscurity than obviousness. To qualify, a player cannot have averaged much more than 20 minutes per game as a freshman. But while he was on the floor, he had to use a go-to-guy's share of his team's offensive possessions (around 24 percent or higher) with a respectable level of efficiency (an ORating of at least 100.0, or one point per possession). The underlying theory, as first proposed by Basketball Prospectus, is that go-to-guys tend to act like it from the start of their careers, even in limited playing time. "Players who are not very involved in the offense," Ken Pomeroy wrote for BP in 2007, "tend to stay that way."
The Breakout Sophomore Formula is back for a fifth try -- the goal being to identify future stars who didn't stand out in traditional box scores as freshmen, but had tempo-free stats indicative of success.
The formula tilts more toward obscurity than obviousness. To qualify, a player cannot have averaged much more than 20 minutes per game as a freshman. But while he was on the floor, he had to use a go-to-guy's share of his team's offensive possessions (around 24 percent or higher) with a respectable level of efficiency (an ORating of at least 100.0, or one point per possession). The underlying theory, as first proposed by Basketball Prospectus, is that go-to-guys tend to act like it from the start of their careers, even in limited playing time. "Players who are not very involved in the offense," Ken Pomeroy wrote for BP in 2007, "tend to stay that way."
1. Przemek Karnowski, 7-1 center, Gonzaga
Freshman minutes per game: 10.7
Freshman points per game: 5.7
% of team possessions used: 27.0
Offensive efficiency rating: 102.5
Schimmick, or Shem, or Big Kar, or the Polish Hammer, or Mount Poland -- whatever you want to call him -- is pretty much the formula's perfect breakout candidate: He barely played as a freshman, but when he did, he played with the profile of a centerpiece scorer. The presence of two NBA-bound bigs, Kelly Olynyk and Elias Harris, ahead of Karnowski on Gonzaga's depth chart limited him to spot minutes (as did his own conditioning issues). But he used possessions at a higher rate than Harris did, while shooting 56.7 percent from inside the arc, often as a result of getting great deep-post position.
With Olynyk and Harris gone, Karnowski is likely to start at center, and the Zags' offense should include heavy doses of post feeds to him from point guard Kevin Pangos. Karnowski had a confidence-boosting summer playing for Poland's national team in the European U20 championships (B Division), averaging 15.9 points and 11.9 boards in 27.0 minutes. The one thing that could prevent him from becoming a star is free-throw shooting: Karnowski's combined percentage from his freshman NCAA season and the Euro U20s was a ghastly 45.2 percent (47-of-104). If that doesn't change, opponents could employ hack-a-Shem strategies -- and he'd need to be pulled off the floor in crunch-time situations.
Read More: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/col...#ixzz2cjQ35I7m
Freshman minutes per game: 10.7
Freshman points per game: 5.7
% of team possessions used: 27.0
Offensive efficiency rating: 102.5
Schimmick, or Shem, or Big Kar, or the Polish Hammer, or Mount Poland -- whatever you want to call him -- is pretty much the formula's perfect breakout candidate: He barely played as a freshman, but when he did, he played with the profile of a centerpiece scorer. The presence of two NBA-bound bigs, Kelly Olynyk and Elias Harris, ahead of Karnowski on Gonzaga's depth chart limited him to spot minutes (as did his own conditioning issues). But he used possessions at a higher rate than Harris did, while shooting 56.7 percent from inside the arc, often as a result of getting great deep-post position.
With Olynyk and Harris gone, Karnowski is likely to start at center, and the Zags' offense should include heavy doses of post feeds to him from point guard Kevin Pangos. Karnowski had a confidence-boosting summer playing for Poland's national team in the European U20 championships (B Division), averaging 15.9 points and 11.9 boards in 27.0 minutes. The one thing that could prevent him from becoming a star is free-throw shooting: Karnowski's combined percentage from his freshman NCAA season and the Euro U20s was a ghastly 45.2 percent (47-of-104). If that doesn't change, opponents could employ hack-a-Shem strategies -- and he'd need to be pulled off the floor in crunch-time situations.
Read More: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/col...#ixzz2cjQ35I7m
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