PDA

View Full Version : Meehan and Blanchette on Kelly



ID ZAGFAN
04-20-2013, 08:00 AM
Nice articles by Jim Meehan and John Blanchette.

http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2013/apr/20/gonzagas-olynyk-opts-for-nba-draft/


“I don’t think people knew at all what was going through my mind,” Olynyk said. “It was definitely a seesaw, teeter-totter effect. A week ago I was leaning toward coming back. I really wanted to and thought it was the best thing.

“It’s really hard to gather your thoughts. It seemed like every person I talked to my view would change. I didn’t know whether that was a sign to stop talking to people or do I need to talk to more people. In the end, this was best decision for me.”

http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2013/apr/20/with-olynyk-gone-zags-have-to-find-way-to-fill/

If Olynyk’s decision seemed like a done deal to everyone else, it wasn’t for him. He admitted flip-flopping until he walked into Few’s office at 9 p.m. Thursday.

Olynyk’s mother, Arlene, was in town for decision day, and confirmed her son’s “torturous” internal tug-of-war – albeit a logical one, until she and her husband Ken encouraged him to “add some emotion to it” at the end. That made for a predictable tipping point: It’s a rare player whose basketball dreams don’t extend beyond college, and Olynyk’s always did.

That those dreams seemed to be in danger of stalling two years ago, she pointed out, “spurred him to train a little harder. And now I think that was a good experience for him, because now he has another learning curve ahead of him and he knows how hard work paid off at this level.”

More at both links.

ZaGranny

MDABE80
04-20-2013, 10:48 AM
It doesn't sound like Kelly was enthused and picked one pathway as a clear winner/choice It kinda sounds like he was relieved to just have the choice over. Not really smart if he himself is chosing. 22 year olds with no experience often make "iffy" choices.

Given he's being treated like "one of many" instead of a clear no 4 or 15 in the draft with an up front agreement, this sounds like an ill prepared choice. He very much needs to rethink and get a professional guiding him in all this which is very confusing and intimidating for a youngster. Not an agent......but someone who knows the pathways and options.

OR......just return until he has that type of sophistocation in his corner helping him.... This is hardly one of those "oh gee, I think I'll go fishing today ......" type choices. Honestly I thought this was already set up for him. Now...it's doesn't sound like it......

Zippyzaggy
04-20-2013, 10:58 AM
It doesn't sound like Kelly was enthused and picked one pathway as a clear winner/choice It kinda sounds like he was relieved to just have the choice over. Not really smart if he himself is chosing. 22 year olds with no experience often make "iffy" choices.

...



Maybe he simply feels somewhat guilty and is saying it was much harder than it was. A way of making us all, plus him, feel better about his departure.

Perhaps? A little white lie?

ehk 21
04-20-2013, 03:23 PM
I don't understand what MDABE80 means by an "up front" agreement. None of the NBA teams even knows their exact draft position as the draft lottery hasn't been conducted yet. So, no team can really make any kind of promise to any player.

If you go to a site like Walter Football is has a data base of all the mock drafts. Kelly is projected to go anywhere from 6th to 17th depending on which mock draft you consult. There isn't one particular mock draft that is especially accurate, but if you take ALL of the mock drafts and analyze them, you can get a pretty accruate feel of where a player will go. And if you look at ALL of the mock drafts from prior years and do a statistical analysis, you will find that you can, with 95% accuracy, predict where a player will be chosen in the draft within a few places of where the average of all mock drafts predicts he will go. So, if the average of all mock drafts places KO at about the 13th slot, there is about a 95% chance he will go between 9 and 17. This analysis works only with players whose average projected slot is above 15th. The further down in the draft you go the less accuracy there is in this kind of analysis. For example, mock drafts do a very poor job of projecting where second rounders will go.

The fact that KO's slot is around 13 and is continuing to go up suggests that his decision was very good, especially when you look at his approximate earnings at that approximate position. It is not a high-risk decision for Kelly to depart now. The higher risk decision would be to wait another year with the possibility of injury or other issues to derail you. Yes, there is a possibility that he could do even better next year and get an even higher slot, but there is no guarantee of that and, in all likelihood there are more negative scenarios for next year than positive ones regardng likely slotting.

For further evidence, look at the career of Elias Harris. He made a great decision, from our perspective as GU fans, not to depart GU when his stock was high when he probably (statistically) would have been a first rounder. However, the data out there now suggests that he probably will not even get drafted this year. The odds are he will not receive any NBA payday at all (unless he plays well overseas and makes it back to the NBA at some point in the unknown future). From a financial stanpoint, Harris's decision to stay at GU, while great from a fan's perspective, turned out to be less-than-ideal for him. So, Kelly's decision, while regretted by a few in this forum, was highly logical, "up front agreement" or not.

jazzdelmar
04-20-2013, 03:31 PM
Two things.

If KO literally made up his mind the night before, as he says, then his decision is very conditional and more a relief than an aspiration. So I agree with Doc..

Second, if Harris had gone out after frosh year he would have been found lacking immediately in the NBA regardless of where he would have been drafted. Sure he would have money but he would have lost three great years at GU and likely be playing in Europe ater his first contract, assuming he wouldn't have slipped to the second round after workouts. The NBA is heartless that way.

MDABE80
04-20-2013, 03:56 PM
ehk....when a team is guaranteed a draft spot OR (in advance) has a trade made possible due to a pre-draft deal, they know who they are picking and the draft is a formality. GMs do this quite a bit.......

But , if you remember hack a few months, Kelly's father said that if he wasn't guaranteed a high spot, likely they'd have to back and huddle up as to what to do.

I cannot mention names but working where I do part of the year, 2 GM's confirmed that they do that over dinner.
I was thinking of this and the strong desire by Kelly's dad to have a high spot guaranteed.......and this is doable. It happens.

I don't know if the Olynyks followed through on the Dad's comments or if an agent, a GM or a rep of a team had approached the family along those lines. I do know that if Kelly was my kid, I'd be looking for some sort of an agreement before I gave up my senior year wherein KO would likely have been a repeater as a 1 st team AA and strong candidate of POY. Further though, Kelly's athleticism could sure use some work in another year of college. SOmetimes that makes a big difference to a kid.just as KO's redshirt year did. Sometimes another year works wonders. I do know that Few wanted his star center back. In the end, we settle for what we get..if anyone seriously thinks uncertainty is the best Kelly could get, so be it. I don't.

I was chagrined when Kelly said he waited until Thursday night to settle this in his head as to his choice. Seems like a big , life changing decision deserves more certitude.......maybe it's just me though. A "night before" decision just seems a bit unusual for such a big deal. TO each his own though. Kelly has to live with it....not me. Loooking back on Dan Dickau's case from 2002....Dan was drafted but he was quickly sold to another team. Those things aren't accidental........we soon found out who REALLY wanted him. Next time I get a haircut, I'll ask him if he knew. I do think he did though.

ZagNative
04-20-2013, 04:34 PM
Geez, Abe and Jazz, when are you two going to take your Abbot and Costello act about what a hideous Mistake Kely is making on the road?

Abe, if I'm reading the following from Draft Express that CDC84 posted here recently correctly, GM's and other NBA Execs are prohibited from any contact with players and their families ahead of time, much less offering guaranteed deals.

Someone please correct me if I'm wrong:

Since the NCAA bars third parties (even family members) of college players from reaching out to NBA teams to discuss their draft stock, and the NBA itself has strict no-contact rules regarding the way teams can communicate with players who are not officially draft-eligible (before the early-entry list is released in early May), the only way an underclassman can gather information about his draft stock is through his college head coach. Furthermore, the head coach is only allowed to talk with the principal basketball operations executive from each team (ie: the general manager), according to NBA rules, and the underclassman may not participate in or be present during any such conversation.

To help with this process, the NBA is again offering underclassmen the ability to get actual feedback from a group of executives representing 20 NBA teams selected by the League Office, and chaired by NBA Executive Vice President of Basketball Operations Stu Jackson, called the NBA Undergraduate Advisory Committee.

According to NBA spokesman Tim Frank, who we corresponded with via email in researching this article, this committee consists of “General Managers, Assistant General Managers, and VP's of Player Personnel and the like who scout college basketball extensively during the college basketball season.“

NCAA underclassmen must apply for an evaluation in writing no later than April 10 th, which is two days after the Championship game of the NCAA tournament in Atlanta.

The NBA Undergraduate Advisory Committee will deliver their evaluation on or before April 15th.

According to NBA spokesman Tim Frank “once the committee does their analysis of the player, the draft projection is communicated to the player, coach, or anyone else who the player designates, such as family, in a phone call in which the draft projection is shared and the player (or others involved) can ask questions about the projection and the draft process.”

Frank also explained via email that “we instruct our Committee members to provide as narrow of a draft range as they can with confidence, and they are not limited to the lottery, first round, second round, not drafted framework and other more specific descriptors covering ranges are much more commonly used. We collect the projections from our Committee members and summarize this information to the players and others who they designate, and the draft projections and ranges obviously vary based upon the given prospect.”

What's important to note (and has been widely misreported in the media), is that requesting an evaluation from the advisory committee does not constitute entering the draft. In fact, the application form explicitly states that “this application is not a declaration of eligibility for the 2013 NBA draft. A separate letter must be sent to Commission David Stern (received by April 28, 2013) declaring eligibility for the 2013 NBA draft. An application form for the 2013 NBA draft will be sent upon receipt of the letter of declaration.”

What that means is that, theoretically, a college player could still wait until April 28th to enter the NBA draft, as these are two separate deadlines, and there seemingly is no benefit at all to entering his name before, particularly since he will lose his NCAA eligibility if he does not remove it before April 16th.

For example, if a player seriously injures himself between April 17th and April 28th, but had already sent a letter to David Stern declaring their eligibility for the 2013 NBA Draft, that player would be ineligible to return to school.

While college coaches would obviously love to have all of their answers regarding who will or will not return to their team by April 16th, so they can start their vacation early or get an early jump on next season, realistically there is no reason why an underclassmen wouldn't continue to privately investigate their NBA draft stock until April 28th.

Is the NBA Undergraduate Advisory Committee the answer then? While it's certainly noble of the NBA to try an assist with the process, it remains extremely difficult for a player to get an accurate gauge of their draft stock in April, as there are just too many variables to predict that are out of anyone's control.

The NBA realizes as much, and has no qualms informing prospects of such, as you can read in the advisory committee application below: “The Committee's evaluation is, of course, only an educated assessment and is not binding in any way or a commitment of guarantee that a player will or will not be drafted in a certain slot or at all.”

Most NBA teams will still be in very preliminary stages of their evaluation process in April, and may not be in a position to tell an underclassman with any real accuracy where he will be drafted on June 27th.

From DraftExpress.com http://www.draftexpress.com#ixzz2R3KVSit7
http://www.draftexpress.com

So, are you wrong in your last post or what? Are you ready to put a sock in it yet?

MDABE80
04-20-2013, 04:41 PM
Nobody says Kelly make a hideous mistake ZN. nobody....

As to the citation, I'm not sure it's exactly what happens despite the intent being what it is. Do you remember what Kelly's Dad was saying a few months back. Sorta un- deifies your citation. Pronouncements from on high are rarely followed. Deals are made all the time....in advance and outside of the pronouncements. Despite all the so called rules, reality weighs in....

Thanks though.......

ZagNative
04-20-2013, 04:53 PM
Abe, you're just wrong, flat wrong. I've never heard a kid say he had a deal in hand before declaring. You don't know anything more about this than I do, which ain't much, but at least I'm not offering unsubstantiated opinion as fact.

So enough already.

MDABE80
04-20-2013, 04:55 PM
Abe, you're just wrong, flat wrong. I've never heard a kid say he had a deal in hand before declaring. You don't know anything more about this than I do, which ain't much, but at least I'm not offering unsubstantiated opinion as fact.

So enough already.

You're a peach ZN. Thanks for your input. Now run along and believe what you want......

jazzdelmar
04-20-2013, 04:56 PM
Abe, who's on first?

ZagNative
04-20-2013, 04:58 PM
https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-sjT7RhrgIVc/UXM3ghFy4gI/AAAAAAABfyo/SAI_GuYDLV0/s492/Crabby%2520Jazzdelmar-001.jpg

MDABE80
04-20-2013, 05:00 PM
Abe, who's on first?

lol seems like we've attracted the anklebiters from the esteemed peanut gallery. To each her own.

jazzdelmar
04-20-2013, 05:07 PM
Abbot and Costello meet the Brides of Frankenstein.

MDABE80
04-20-2013, 05:17 PM
Oh well.......and the deals continue.......ZN does a good job diggin around for us. Exemplary. A High Value digger;)

As an aside though, I'm watching the Nike Hoops Summit.......superior display of the one and dones. Foreigners are embarassing the flashy ones. And doing it with fundamentals. Hope we find a few of these fundamentally sound kids.

McZag
04-20-2013, 06:55 PM
As a college basketball purist, I don't think the decision to leave college early should ever be easy for anyone. Yes I am one of the crazy old dudes who thinks Lebron James and the like missed a great life experience for choosing to go straight to work for a living with only a high school diploma. Yes I do think of it in this light. Money is great. I get that. But you only get these precious years once in your life and as you age, the value of those years gets higher and higher and higher. You never get them back.

But you gotta take the money right? Only if you are fully aware of the cost and unfortunately most of the guys who leave early realize that their careers were great as college players and that they willingly gave one or more of those years away. Only to become very average NBA players, trying to extend their careers by being traded and moving and chasing respect.

Ever hear the phrase do what you love, the money will come? Turns out, in the end, that's actually true. Living a life ecompassed completely of love leaves you fulfilled in every way, including finances. I am happy for KO but I hope he is leaving for more than the money. Loving the life of an NBA player is critical if he is going to go without any regrets.

DixieZag
04-20-2013, 06:56 PM
Oh well.......and the deals continue.......ZN does a good job diggin around for us. Exemplary. A High Value digger;)

As an aside though, I'm watching the Nike Hoops Summit.......superior display of the one and dones. Foreigners are embarassing the flashy ones. And doing it with fundamentals. Hope we find a few of these fundamentally sound kids.

That is something I think we can all agree with, though I also agreed with your real world view of planning,

It is shocking how poor the fundamentals can be even with highly touted American players. It also seems to me that, very generally speaking, foreign players come with a bit more maturity, again there are always exceptions.

I hope that Tommy has his Eurorail pass, backpack and a copy of " let's Go Europe" for his early summer working vacation.

TexasZagFan
04-22-2013, 04:43 AM
You're a peach ZN. Thanks for your input. Now run along and believe what you want......

Gee Abe, you're being awfully harsh on the President of the Treehorn Fan Club. :lmao:

TexasZagFan
04-22-2013, 04:51 AM
As a college basketball purist, I don't think the decision to leave college early should ever be easy for anyone. Yes I am one of the crazy old dudes who thinks Lebron James and the like missed a great life experience for choosing to go straight to work for a living with only a high school diploma. Yes I do think of it in this light. Money is great. I get that. But you only get these precious years once in your life and as you age, the value of those years gets higher and higher and higher. You never get them back.

But you gotta take the money right? Only if you are fully aware of the cost and unfortunately most of the guys who leave early realize that their careers were great as college players and that they willingly gave one or more of those years away. Only to become very average NBA players, trying to extend their careers by being traded and moving and chasing respect.

Ever hear the phrase do what you love, the money will come? Turns out, in the end, that's actually true. Living a life ecompassed completely of love leaves you fulfilled in every way, including finances. I am happy for KO but I hope he is leaving for more than the money. Loving the life of an NBA player is critical if he is going to go without any regrets.

Good post. Kelly did spend 4 years at GU, it's not like he was one and done. He's got a good head on his shoulders, and a supportive family. Best wishes to him...hope he's drafted by the Mavericks!

Kiddwell
04-22-2013, 07:10 AM
Kelly being a two-time 1st Team AA and, maybe, college basketball's Division-1 POY would've been A-W-E-S-O-M-E. Alas, those things aren't happening. In which case Kiddwell wishes Kelly health, wealth, happiness, and success in the NBA.

On a related matter, another thread talked about transfers waiting on us till Kelly made his decision. If so, here's hoping those "waiters" now are all over the Zags about transferring in.

OK, one final thing: Kelly, now that you're weeks away from signing for Big Bucks, can Kiddwell borrow $400,000? :D

:]

<...at 0% interest...with a don't-have-to-payback clause...>

Worthington
04-22-2013, 07:28 AM
...I was chagrined when Kelly said he waited until Thursday night to settle this in his head as to his choice. Seems like a big , life changing decision deserves more certitude.......maybe it's just me though. A "night before" decision just seems a bit unusual for such a big deal. TO each his own though. Kelly has to live with it....not me...

What are you talking about "A night before decision"? Kelly took a good couple weeks to process all the input he was receiving and make a decision. By your logic he could have taken all year to make up his mind and announce his choice and it would have been "A night before decision". He took much longer than the vast majority of the other draft candidates so I don't see how anyone could second guess this as a rashly made decision.

cjm720
04-22-2013, 08:08 AM
I remember Robert Swift saying the Celtics promissed to draft him and that's why he declared. Not 100% sure but I believe the Sonics stupidly drafted him right before Boston would have.

I highly doubt Kelly got that, but it's fairly easy to see he'll be a high draft choice...